The San Francisco 49ers Round 1 Big Board Before Combine

As the NFL Scouting Combine begins Feb. 17 in Indianapolis, all eyes will be on the top draft picks.  Interviews will be interviewed, 40-yards will be dashed, benches will be pressed and physicals will be physicalled.

For the San Francisco 49ers’ first-round pick, the two most important groups will actually arrive after the start of the combine on Tuesday.  The wideouts arrive on Wednesday and get their on-field workouts on Saturday, while the defensive line does everything one day later.

Who should you pay attention to during the combine?  Let’s take a look at the big board before the combine begins—the top targets for the team in the first round of the draft.

As the 49ers pick 15th, I figured it was a good idea to take a quick look at the 10 players the 49ers would pick.  Yes, it’s conceivable that all 10 would be gone by the time the 49ers actually got on the clock, but that’s highly unlikely that they all will be gone, thanks to differing needs and philosophies from the teams above them. 

To be on the safe side, I’ve also included a few honorable mentions to get the list of players up to 15, but in reality, one of the top eight or so should be available by the time the 49ers pick.

The big board is dominated by wideouts and defensive ends.  There aren’t a lot of solid guards who would be available in the middle of the first round, and there isn't a big-bodied tight end who seems to be a first-round pick at this point. 

Thus, the most logical selections for the 49ers would be a replacement for Michael Crabtree, Ray McDonald or Justin Smith.  They’re not the only positions on the list, but there’s a reason they dominate the rankings.

I’ve also taken a look at mock drafts around the internet—from here at Bleacher Report, ESPN, CBSSports.com, SBNation, WalterFootball.com and NFL.com—to figure out which players are likely to be available when the 49ers pick and which are more pipe dreams.  We’ll spend more time talking about the more likely selections, but we’ll at least touch on the dream prospects.

With no further ado, let’s start at No. 1.

1. DE Leonard Williams, USC

2014 Stats: 80 tackles, seven sacks, one interception

Strengths: The best overall talent available in this year’s draft also happens to fill a huge need for the 49ers, if Justin Smith ends up retiring.  Leonard Williams has a rare combination of size and strength; he’s too quick to be blocked by bruising interior linemen and too powerful for more mobile offensive tackles.  Williams has the potential to be a J.J. Watt-esque difference-maker on the defensive line.

Weaknesses: Williams is coming off two torn labrums, meaning he may not be able to lift at the combine.  It is possible, in theory, that the injury might be enough to be a long-term concern for Williams.  Any critiques of his play are nitpicks, but they are there—at 6’5”, he occasionally has problems gaining leverage at the point of attack and is forced to rely on his long arms and technique to get an advantage.

Realistic?: Every single mock draft has Williams long gone before the 49ers even show up to the draft; the latest anyone has him going is No. 5 to Washington, by NFL analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who describes him as “a steal at this spot.”  There’s no way the 49ers will be able to pick him, barring a massive fall between now and draft day.

2. WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

2014 Stats: 124 receptions, 1,727 yards, 16 touchdowns

Strengths: One of the consensus top two receivers, along with Kevin White, Amari Cooper might have the best all-around attributes in the class.  He’s a highlight-reel receiver, with top-end quickness and acceleration to work into the open field. 

He set the SEC record for receptions in 2014, and his yardage and touchdown totals are second in conference history.  He simply must be double-teamed, which leaves your secondary receivers open.

Weaknesses: Not as big as historical top wideouts, at only 6’1”.  He also struggles with drops—he’ll make the spectacular reception, but he'll drop the routine ones at times.  He’s quick, but not fast, in that I mean he won’t shatter records in the 40-yard dash or anything of that nature.

Realistic?: Once again, every mock draft has Cooper taken before the 49ers pick, but at least some have him slipping a little bit.  Matt Miller has Cooper falling all the way down to Minnesota at No. 11, which would pair him with high school teammate Teddy Bridgewater.  While that puts him in range for a possible trade, Miller’s opinion is, at the moment, a bit of an outlier, and even that doesn’t have him falling to 15.

3. WR DeVante Parker, Louisville

2014 Stats: 43 receptions, 855 yards, five touchdowns

Strengths: DeVante Parker often seems to be the forgotten man when it comes to the top wideouts in the draft, but I actually prefer him to Kevin White.  I think he has the highest ceiling when it comes to all of the receivers in the class—he’s a dynamic playmaker who might run a 4.4 40-yard dash, despite being 6’3” and 209 pounds, which is a very solid combination of size and speed. 

He also could have the best vertical leap at the combine and can win battles even when he’s closely covered.  He’s the most athletic receiver in this year’s class.

Parker can go up in the air and bring down contested balls.  He has a huge catch radius, as well—that will help any quarterback improve his accuracy.  Unlike Cooper, Parker doesn’t drop balls, either—NFL.com's Lance Zierlein credits him with just three drops since 2012. 

He won’t be thrown off his game by physical play, either—Parker has both the instincts and smarts to adjust his routes, fight through hand-checking and bumping and make the reception.

Weaknesses: Parker suffered a foot injury last season and only played in six games—that's likely why his stock is somewhat down among the draft experts.  His medical examination at the combine will be crucial for his draft stock.  His route running also could be crisper, and he’ll have to improve that to consistently succeed at the NFL level.

Parker’s also not going to contribute at all as a blocker in the run game, and there remains the potential that a physical set of cornerbacks could throw him off his game; his acceleration isn’t top-end.  He makes a lot of contested catches because he lacks the ability to completely separate from receivers.

Realistic?: Parker is the highest player who stays on the board in any of the 13 mock drafts I looked at, with CBSSports.com’s Rob Rang and Pat Kirwan, as well as NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, leaving Parker available at pick No. 15. 

Personally, I think he goes off the board no later than the Cleveland Browns at pick No. 12, but the second tier of receivers are packed tightly enough that it’s feasible that Parker could slip to 15.  Assuming he shows rebounded speed from his foot injury at the combine, Parker would be my best-case outcome of this year’s draft.

4. DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri

2014 Stats: 65 tackles, 14.5 sacks

Strengths: Shane Ray is a monster.  He’s liable to put up the top scores at the combine for defensive ends in terms of speed, vertical jump, broad jump and bench press—and if he doesn’t, he’ll be in the top few in each category. 

He's not only an excellent speed rusher, but he also has powerful hands and can use his leverage when all else fails to get around his blocker.  He’s also a solid run defender, though his main goal is to get to the quarterback.

Weaknesses: He might not be as big as advertised.  While he was often billed at 6’2” or 6’3”, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah (via J.P. Shadrick of Jaguars.com) has indicated that he’s not as big or as heavy as Missouri listed him.  He could use a few more pass-rush moves—he has a nice swim move, but he mostly relies on his speed. 

He doesn’t fit the profile of a 3-4 end, either—he’d either have to learn a new position, move to outside linebacker (a lesser need for the 49ers) or be part of a transition to a 4-3 defense.  If the 49ers ran a 4-3, I’d have Ray listed above Parker.

Realistic?: It seems very unrealistic to assume Ray would slide all the way back to No. 15—he’s the top pass-rusher in the draft, after all.  He’ll likely go in the top 10, if not the top five.  Couple that with his lack of ideal formation fit for the 49ers and it’s highly dubious Ray would end up going to the 49ers.

5. WR Kevin White, West Virginia

2014 Stats: 109 receptions, 1,447 yards, 10 touchdowns

Strengths: White’s stock has been rising the past couple of weeks, to the point where NFL.com's Mike Mayock has actually ranked him as the top receiver in the class.  He has the right body type for the position, as well—he’s a good two inches taller than Amari Cooper and has a more solid frame to boot. 

He’s got quite the leaping ability, as well and catches the ball at his highest-possible point, making him a threat on jump balls and fades to the corner of the end zone.

He’s the hardest to tackle of the top receivers as well and can create space with his footwork and reflexes.  When he catches the ball in stride, as he is wont to do, he can break through tackles and keep rolling downfield, meaning he’s not just a deep-ball threat—he can turn short crossing routes and comebacks into big gains as well.

Weaknesses: Just how fast is White?  No one really knows for sure, and he could run anywhere from a 4.4 to a 4.6 40-yard dash at the combine.  If he’s on the slow end of that, that’s a significant issue—we know he doesn’t have elite top-end speed, but you need some motor to get away from the higher class of cornerback that the NFL provides.

He’s also not going to be able to get around defenders at the NFL level so much as he’ll go through them.  He’ll break tackles, but he won’t be able to avoid them very easily.  He gets his yards after the catch through effort rather than the elite physical attributes you’d like out of a top receiver.

Realistic?:White won’t remain realistic for long if he keeps shooting up draft boards; there was a time when Cooper was the consensus top receiver, but White has made that into an open question. 

Some mocks, including Matt Miller’s, has him going No. 4 overall to Oakland.  Three drafts, however, have him falling to the 49ers at No. 15—both drafts on WalterFootball.com, as well as Bucky Brooks’ on NFL.com.

Brooks’ case oddly devalues receivers, with White being the second off the board to the 49ers.  That seems unlikely, in total.  Both of the Walter Football drafts have White going after Cooper and Parker, and if both of those players are gone, then White’s the best possible choice.  I have my doubts that, come draft day, he’ll fall down to No. 15, but it’s at least within the realm of possibility.

6. DE Arik Armstead, Oregon

2014 Stats: 46 tackles, 2.5 sacks

Strengths: Arik Armstead is 6’8” and 290 pounds.  He’s not just a huge body, though—he has crazy athleticism and should get plenty of coverage at the combine for putting up astounding numbers.  He’s powerful and fast, with crazy-long arms.  If you were going to create a defensive end, you’d give him Armstead’s raw physical stature.

He also showed improved production from 2013 to 2014, which is key—he’s still developing as a player.  Last season was his first time playing football full-time, rather than splitting time with the basketball team, and the extra-time paid dividends.  The 2013 version of Armstead might have hit the second round; the 2014 version is a very tempting prospect.

Weaknesses: Armstead is the rawest player in this year’s draft, at least among first-round candidates.  He has yet to put up the numbers and production to match his size and athleticism, and his technique needs a lot of work to get the maximum amount of potential out of his frame.  He plays too tall, which limits his ability to translate his power into an active pass rush.

Essentially, what you have now is an athlete with upside, like Ziggy Ansah was when he was drafted by Detroit two years ago.  It might take a season or two of coaching for Armstead to justify a top-15 pick, and that might not be the best use of resources for a team like the 49ers, who need a talent infusion on offense.

Realistic?: Only three of the mock drafts—ESPN's Mel Kiper’s and Todd McShay’s and Daniel Jeremiah’s have Armstead gone at this point, making him the first name on this list who is more likely to be available at the 15th pick than not. 

For him to make sense, however, you’d have to see an early run on receivers—basically, all three of Cooper, White and Parker ending up being taken by some combination of Oakland, St. Louis, Cleveland, Minnesota and the New York Jets.

If all that happened, however, taking Armstead might make more sense than reaching for another receiver.  The 49ers just promoted their defensive line coach to the head job, after all—and who better to coach Armstead up than the “teacher”-type Jed York was looking for? 

The ideal scenario here is Justin Smith hanging on for one more year, Armstead learning as a backup and rotational player and then taking over the defensive end role in 2016.

7. DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska

2014 Stats: 54 tackles, seven sacks

Strengths: Tall and lengthy at 6’6”, 240 pounds, Randy Gregory is a dynamic pass-rusher.  He has a powerful bull rush to get through smaller tackles and enough speed to cut around larger ones.  He’s already polished with a full variety of pass-rushing moves, and is ready to contribute from Day 1 at the NFL level.  He has an unrelenting motor, and will fight through anything to get to his man.

Weaknesses: 240 pounds is light for an NFL player, and he’ll need to bulk up, especially if someone wants to play him on the line of scrimmage.  Doesn’t always win at the point of attack and can be driven backward if he doesn’t anchor himself properly.  He also suffered a number of injuries in 2014, including an ankle injury and a concussion. 

He doesn’t fit the profile of a 3-4 end, either—he’d either have to learn a new position, move to outside linebacker (a lesser need for the 49ers) or be part of a transition to a 4-3 defense.  If the 49ers ran a 4-3, I’d have Gregory listed above Parker, White and Armstead.

Realistic?: The only reason Gregory falls so low on the 49ers board is due to the scheme mismatch. He’d essentially be another Aldon Smith, which isn’t a bad thing but far from a top need. 

As such, he’s much higher on other teams’ big boards, and it shows—only one of the 13 mock drafts has him even falling out of the top five.  There’s no realistic way that Gregory falls to the 49ers, and even if he did, he’d unlikely be the pick.

8. WR/TE Devin Funchess, Michigan

2014 Stats: 62 receptions, 733 yards, four touchdowns

Strengths: Devin Funchess lined up everywhere in college—tight end, slot receiver and wideout.  At 6’5”, 230 pounds, Funchess is the tallest of the top receivers, which is definitely an aspect in his favor.  He uses that height to be a mismatch against cornerbacks in the red zone—he has a good four inches on most cornerbacks in the league, and his long arms give him an even greater height advantage.

When he lines up inline as a tight end, he’s a devastating mismatch for opposing linebackers.  When he has the ball and is given time to speed up, he’s going to bowl over opponents—think of his potential on crossing routes over the middle, catching the ball at full speed and simply turning upfield.  He can fight through physical coverage as well.

Weaknesses: Definitely a rung down from the top receivers in this year’s draft.  Funchess doesn’t have the speed to be a deep threat, which the 49ers need, and he doesn't always use his size to the best of its ability.  He’s not as good of a leaper as Parker and White, so they actually can play “bigger” than he does.  He’s not going to win a lot of contested balls, either, and he has too many drops.

He also could be transitioning from tight end to receiver in the pros and could really use one more year of experience at the college level to polish his route running and vision with the ball.  He has some experience as a blocker, but he’s not a particularly good one, with occasionally poor technique.

Realistic? The weaknesses are enough to knock him down—every single mock draft has Funchess available at the 15th pick.  That makes him my worst-case scenario selection—if Parker, White and Armstead are all off the board, then settling for Funchess might be the 49ers’ best play.

Don’t be too down on him, despite the laundry list of weaknesses, however.  He’s still a matchup nightmare, and his size and athleticism are things that simply cannot be coached. 

He could be a huge weapon in the red zone, where the 49ers have struggled recently. He could also either be a replacement for Michael Crabtree or Vernon Davis, giving the 49ers flexibility as they transition their offense to a new era.  If he can learn to be a bit more consistent, then he’ll be a very, very solid player in the NFL.

9. QB Jameis Winston, Florida State

2014 Stats: 305-of-467, 3,907 yards, 25 touchdowns, 18 interceptions

Strengths: While Colin Kaepernick deserves at least one more season behind the reins for the 49ers, if you knew that a player would develop into the next, say, Tom Brady, wouldn’t you take him?

That’s what you’re hoping to get with a player like Jameis Winston, who has the size, strength, poise and arm to become a top NFL quarterback for years to come.  He is already very solid at working through his progressions and finding tight throwing lanes and shows poise and confidence in the pocket.

Weaknesses: On the field, Winston occasionally over-trusts his arms and throws through impossible windows, rather than merely tight ones.  He also has a very long delivery, which gives defensive backs a chance to jump routes and linemen an extra fraction of a second to bring him down. 

He will also stare down his targets occasionally.  There’s also off-field and character concerns, most seriously allegations of sexual assault that an FSU hearing recently cleared him of, but there's also a shoplifting charge and an allegation that he may have received compensation for autographs, which would be a violation of NCAA rules.

Realistic? No.  Twelve of the 13 mock drafts have Winston going first overall to Tampa Bay, with NFL.com's Charles Davis having him slip all the way down to No. 10 and St. Louis in what can only be described as an attempt to be contrary.  

Whoever drafts him will have to make a serious decision on whether his on-field talent outweighs the potential off-field headaches, but the 49ers won’t have to waste any time on that decision.

10. WR Devin Smith, Ohio State

2014 Stats: 33 receptions, 931 yards, 12 touchdowns

Strengths: If the 49ers' most pressing need is a speed-merchant wide receiver—and you can make a strong argument that it is—then Devin Smith is the best-available choice.  His reception total was low, but that’s a result of Ohio State’s offensive style more than Smith’s abilities; he’s a home run hitter. 

He might hit a 4.3 40-yard dash, and he has the ability to track the deep ball and get into position to make the huge, game-changing play.  It’s not just track speed, either—it all translates onto the field, allowing him to get behind the secondary and blow up coverages.

Weaknesses: Receivers are asked to do more than just run downfield, and there’s some question about Smith’s ability on other routes.  He’s not going to develop into an overall, do-anything receiver; he’s there to catch touchdowns, and that’s about it. 

To fully develop at the NFL level, he needs to add an intermediate or short game and learn to deal with physical cornerback play.  He sometimes turns upfield before completing the catch, resulting in focus drops.

Realistic? Smith should definitely be available when the 49ers pick and might even be a tad bit of a reach.  It’s hard to imagine a scenario where four receivers go off the board before the 49ers pick, and no defensive lineman drops down—there’re only so many combinations of players and needs beforehand.  If the 49ers fall in love with his speed, he could rise, but there are better picks here.

Honorable Mentions

11. DE/OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Florida

Fowler is another strong, solid defender with versatility, but I question his fit in a 3-4 front like the 49ers use.  If the 49ers switch to a 4-3, or think he can succeed at a 3-4 end, I’d move him ahead of Funchess, Winston and Smith on the list. As it is, he won’t drop to the 49ers at 15.

12. WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State

Strong’s the best receiver in the draft at the bubble screen and other short routes like that—hitches and short crosses—but he’s still raw and needs to work on his overall mechanics.  He’d be a great pick if he fell to the second round or if the 49ers traded back, but he’d be a reach at 15.

13. QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Another top-three talent at a position of lesser need, if Mariota somehow fell all the way down to 15, he’d have to be significantly considered.  He resembles Kaepernick in a lot of ways, so he’d fit the system, too.  Even if he did fall to 15, however, there’d be more value in trading down to a quarterback-needy team than actually picking him.

14. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri

In terms of raw talent, Green-Beckham might be the best receiver in the draft.  At 6’6”, 225 pounds, he’s the greatest physical specimen in the receiver class of ’15.  He’s not perfect, however—he can be forced out of routes and is a raw route-runner. 

More importantly, he missed all of 2014 due to being kicked off the team, has been arrested twice for marijuana-related incidents and was alleged to have a role in a burglary and assault, though no charges were filed.  He feels like a Josh Gordon pick—a great talent, but can you trust him to stay on the field?

15. OG La’el Collins, LSU

Guard is a potential position of need for the 49ers, with Mike Iupati likely leaving in free agency and Alex Boone’s contract being up after 2015.  He can play guard or right tackle, so he has versatility, as well.  He has the tendency to lose leverage battles, however, and lacks elite athleticism.  Guards can be found in later rounds, so maybe Collins might be too much for a first-round pick.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.