2015 NFL Free Agents: Buying or Selling Big Paydays for Key Names on Market

Every player entering free agency sees dollar signs and hears cash registers ringing. The noise helps blind the fact that a team is deciding if a walk-year player just is not worth the cost.

The hype of free agency always tends to cover up the reality that you will be paying for what a player has done and not what he will do. This is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, and league, after all.

Bleacher Report takes a critical look at 10 of the biggest names potentially on this free-agent market and buys or sells whether they will actually have their huge financial dreams fulfilled this winter. Since these players are all productive veterans, they will get paid in some way—huge numbers for us on the outside—but we subjectively analyze whether they will get paid up to their huge market expectations.

And, as a fair warning, some of our buy vs. sell tags might fly in the face of common thought, but let us explain the loopholes throughout this slideshow.

RB DeMarco Murray, 26, Dallas Cowboys

Sell

Murray might be deserving of the league MVP this season, a rushing champ posting almost 500 yards more (1,845) than No. 2 (Le'Veon Bell, 1,361), can earn you that high honor. It won't necessarily get you paid.

It is not whether Murray deserves it, though. It is whether his position is worth it.

After all, the NFL infamously treats "equipment people better than we treat our running backs," as NFL insider Adam Schefter tweeted last winter.

Murray is not only impacted by his position, but his team's financial constraints, too. The Cowboys are notoriously in salary-cap hell every winter, and they also have wide receiver Dez Bryant potentially hitting the market. If they had to choose who is going to earn big money for the next four or five years, the wideout figures to win, as The Dallas Morning News' Jon Machota wrote earlier this month:

"

If I had to pick only one, I'd go with Dez Bryant. Jerry Jones has made it clear that Bryant isn't going anywhere. Jones has never said the same about Murray. He didn't close the door on signing both, but he certainly lowered the bar (Jan. 15). I think the Cowboys have a number set with Murray. If he wants more, they'll let him walk. And if that happens, I certainly can't blame DeMarco. This will likely be the biggest contract he'll sign as a pro football player. Jason Garrett would like Murray to stay. Murray embodies the identity that Garrett wants to continue establishing: a tough, physical, strong football team.

"

Murray is not going to be eating ramen noodles or anything, but he isn't going to get a contract an MVP candidate is worth, particularly when you compare it to the Monopoly money quarterbacks and wide receivers get.

OLB Justin Houston, 26, Kansas City Chiefs

Buy

Ask a casual sports fan who is a more important player, the Dallas Cowboys' DeMarco Murray or Houston? You will get an answer of Murray 99 percent of the time.

Some might even ask, well, isn't Houston a team?

Now, you ask an NFL front office decision-maker the former question, they will take the elite pass-rusher over the running back every time. A 22-sack player comes around once in a generation.

Houston is also 26 and still facing his prime at his position. A running back at 27 for 2015 would be past his prime, you could argue.

The silver lining to this "buy" status above is the fact the Chiefs might just slap the franchise tag on Houston to put off his huge payday for a year. Houston is worth $10 million a year for five-plus years. He might merely be tagged for $10 million for 2015.

Either way, that is more money per year than Murray is going to get himself, because of how the positions are prioritized in this modern-day NFL.

DT Ndamukong Suh, 28, Detroit Lions

Buy

We know Suh comes with baggage. We all have to overlook it, because NFL front offices will when they back up the Brinks truck to make an offer to the 28-year-old interior defensive lineman.

You need to run and stop the run to win football games. The Seattle Seahawks have proved that the past two seasons en route to Super Bowl appearances. Suh makes that happen, having made the Lions the No. 1 run defense in football this past season.

Suh is going to become the richest defensive lineman in NFL history, if not the richest defensive player ever.

You don't believe us? Don't take our word for it. Ask Tampa Bay's Gerald McCoy, who signed the richest contract for a defensive tackle in NFL history in October. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press did. He asked McCoy who is the better player and got an honest response:

"

Suh. You didn't think I was going to say that, did you? This is what I base it off of: If you look at our careers in comparison, he's had a better career. If you look at the past season, it's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. I was a second-team all-pro; he was first-team and had the most votes. Automatically makes him No. 1.

He's what I like to call a mutant. We don't have a lot of mutants in this league, he's one of them.

"

Being called a mutant would be a bad thing for most, but anyone (in the non-quarterback NFL category) would take it to become as rich as Suh is going to be.

WR Dez Bryant, 26, Dallas Cowboys

Sell

You won't believe this status until we explain it. See, Bryant is a candidate to be franchise tagged. It is one way the Cowboys might be able to keep both DeMarco Murray and Bryant under their roof for 2015.

Pay the running back a long-term deal at a modest hometown discount—especially amid the aforementioned financial climate for NFL running backs—and then tag the wide receiver for a year (or perhaps even two) and put off his huge payday until his age and potential injury risk drags his price down a bit.

Like Murray, Bryant is coming off a career year. Unlike Murray, Bryant likely has even bigger numbers in him. But the Cowboys have to afford to take that risk if they want to keep both.

Take a look at what last year's franchise tag numbers looked like, per NFL.com's Marc Sessler. If you assume Murray and Bryant would be the top end of their positions, Murray could make just over $8.2 million, while Bryant can make slightly more than $10.5 million. We don't believe Murray will come close annually in a long-term deal, in Dallas or elsewhere.

Bryant is going to get far more than $2.3 million more annually than Murray.

So, Bryant will be rich in those terms. But, again assuming he gets tagged, he won't make what a quarterback (around $14.9 million), a defensive end ($11.175) or even a cornerback ($10.9) would get under a one-year franchise tag.

We are selling Bryant getting a huge contract this winter because it makes more sense to delay his long-term deal a year.

WR Demaryius Thomas, 27, Denver Broncos

Sell

We are going to follow the same logic as the prior Dez Bryant slide. Demaryius Thomas is worth an elite long-term deal. The Broncos figure to be playing the year-to-year game for as long as Peyton Manning decides to stick around.

The Denver Post's Woody Paige reported—um, let's go with speculated—Manning is expected back for one more year.

With Manning on the books, it makes more sense for Denver to tag Thomas for one year at around $10.5 million and then make a longer-term commitment to their elite wide receiver next winter, when Manning is potentially off the books. When you consider Thomas' annual production—around 100 catches for 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns—a one-year, $10.5 million deal is a bargain.

TE Julius Thomas, 26, Denver Broncos

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Buy

When you consider the consistent health of Demaryius Thomas versus the frustrating ankle issues of tight end Julius Thomas, there is no contest in value to a team. This is where the NFL's financial structure might prove to be unfair.

The one that walks is going to get the big, long-term deal.

Thomas is worth about $5-$6 million per year, paltry numbers compared to an elite wide receiver, but he is more likely to have to call someplace other than Denver his home next year. The Broncos are more likely able to get by without the elite tight end versus the elite wide receiver, if they have to make a difficult financial decision between the two Thomases.

Because we wrote it is more likely the Broncos delay Demaryius Thomas' long-term deal until Peyton Manning is off the books via retirement, we might expect Julius Thomas to avoid the franchise tag and actually hit the open market. Once you get a desperate team like the Oakland Raiders in the mix—with their loads of cap space and Julius Thomas' interest—look out.

Julius Thomas is a risk because of his ankle, but the Raiders could put him close to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski among the richest tight end contracts in NFL history.

DE Greg Hardy, 26, Carolina Panthers

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Sell

This is the easiest one to critique here. Hardy cost himself millions, if not as much as $100 million, as he faces a Feb. 9 jury trial, per Michael Gordon of the Charlotte Observer, for his appeal of domestic violence charges.

With the public relations nightmares of Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson this past season still in the NFL's collective mind, it is going to be difficult for Hardy to make elite money anywhere in the league. His play on the field might be worth similar money to Kansas City's aforementioned Justin Houston, because pass-rushers are so in demand, but his circumstances off the field cripple his contract potential this winter.

It is more likely Hardy will have to take a one-year prove-it deal—if he even plays next year at this point—show he is a changed man and get any potential big contract down the road.

WR Randall Cobb, 24, Green Bay Packers

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Buy

The Green Bay Packers might have made a mistake in not locking up this 24-year-old dynamo when they signed Jordy Nelson to his own five-year, $43 million contract in July. Cobb earned himself millions more with his postseason exploits, namely his seven-catch, 62-yard, one-touchdown effort in the NFC championship against the Seattle Seahawks' "Legion of Boom".

Not a bad showing for a player who had an appendicitis the night before, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer reported (via ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky) just before kickoff.

No pun intended here, but that was a gutsy performance.

Cobb is younger and arguably more dynamic than Nelson, so the Green Bay Packers are going to have to start the bidding there. With Davante Adams emerging, the Packers might be motivated to move on at those huge dollars.

If Cobb hits the market, he is going to sign for far more than Nelson received. Cobb is in a really good place right now.

OLB Brian Orakpo, 28, Washington Redskins

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Sell

You can argue Orakpo is not intriguing enough to make this top 10 among free agents. You would be right. His years of injury woes have made him as much of a risk as it has made him affordable among the elite defensive players in football.

Orakpo is still a big name, so we will keep him in here. We similarly submit, he isn't worth big money any longer.

Put a name like this on the open market, though—along with the term "potential bargain"—and watch the masses clamor for their team to engage him in talks this winter.

Regardless of what the hype does for Orakpo, ESPN.com's John Keim doesn't expect Washington to bring him back. Orakpo will have to settle for a one-year, prove-it deal even if there will be a number of teams lining up to take that chance at his reduced price.

CB Darrelle Revis, 29, New England Patriots

Elsa/Getty Images

Buy

Regardless of whether Revis loses the Super Bowl with the New England Patriots, he has already won. He proved to be the defensive difference between being an AFC championship participant and a Super Bowl team.

The question is just how much is that worth. It clearly will be a lot.

Revis has a team-held option of $20 million for next season, but he is going to get $10-plus million a year no matter where he plays in 2015 and beyond. NFL media insider Ian Rapoport reported Monday the Pats haven't even ruled out just picking up that $20 million option, per NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal.

Revis might not sign for the largest total dollar this winter because he is approaching 30, unlike all of the preceding names in this slideshow, but he is a pretty good bet to get the largest guarantee per year. He is also the lone free agent on this list who is still stating his case in a football game this coming Sunday.

You can bet any number of potential free agents would trade their contract fate for that opportunity.

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.