2015 NFL Free Agency: Estimating the Price Tags for Top Free Agents
The NFL is barreling toward its climax, just a scant few weeks away from Super Bowl XLIX. After that comes its denouement—free agency.
We have already looked at some of the biggest playmakers set to hit free agency in March. Now let's take a look at some of the biggest free-agent names overall and how much they will command in free agency.
These numbers are based on past precedent, talent, production and another significant projected salary-cap increase—the more money to go around, the bigger the contracts signed every offseason.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys are certainly going to try to keep the gang together. Owner Jerry Jones knows that won't be easy, per ESPN.com's Jean-Jacques Taylor:
"It's going to be a challenge. Is it financially reasonable? No. Is it possible? Yes.
But if you just looked at it from dollars and cents, it probably doesn't look reasonable. You have to figure out how you get there, but at the end of the day you realize it's going to be costly to have both of those players.
"
Even with a depressed market at his position, DeMarco Murray is going to command a pretty good salary after running away with the rushing title. The talented running back was finally able to put it all together for a full season, but at what cost?
Including the playoffs, Murray touched the ball about 500 times last season. That's a historical red flag, even if he is still in his prime at 27 years of age next season.
Contract: four years, $48 million, $18 million guaranteed
Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos
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Figuring out value for Julius Thomas is going to be tricky business.
On the one hand, he has scored 12 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. On the other, Peyton Manning has been gunning for records as his quarterback.
Can Thomas thrive without Manning? Even if the latter has another year or two left, Thomas is surely looking to sign a long-term deal.
At 6'5" and 250 pounds, and with that athleticism, Thomas will be too tantalizing to ignore on the market if he gets there. But we may find ourselves shaking our heads while peering through the hindsight lens in a few seasons.
Contract: four years, $30 million, $12 million guaranteed
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants
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One of the more talented pass-rushers in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul is going to have an interesting offseason.
That's because the 25-year-old has dealt with myriad injuries over the past several seasons, at one point threatening his career.
He put together a full season in 2014, however, and he regained some of that spark he showed when he had 16.5 sacks in his second season. Of course, owner John Mara and the Giants may be considering the franchise tag to keep their talented defensive end, per ESPN.com's Dan Graziano:
"That is certainly one of our options, but we really haven't fully discussed that yet. I have no idea what his agent is going to do. Actually, I do have a pretty good idea of what his agent is going to be asking for. And whether we want to do that or franchise him is something we will have to fully discuss.
"
The Giants may not be ready to commit long-term money to Pierre-Paul with his injury history, but they surely want to keep him around.
Contract: one year, $15 million (franchise tag)
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Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers need to keep Randall Cobb from leaving in free agency.
As good as Jordy Nelson has been at receiver for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb might be a bigger loss if he walks. Cobb's versatility makes him a valuable asset on the field, as the talented receiver can do damage from the boundary to the backfield and everywhere in between.
Of course, that would require Cobb to stay on the field.
The talented wideout played a full slate of games for the first time in his career, and durability concerns persist for the 5'10", 192-pounder out of Kentucky. But those concerns won't outweigh the potential—as good as Cobb has been, he is also just 24 years old.
Contract: four years, $42 million, $10 million guaranteed
Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle Seahawks
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If Seattle's Legion of Boom is like the Avengers, Byron Maxwell is the Hawkeye of the group.
Maxwell doesn't quite get the notoriety or fan love that big names like cornerback Richard Sherman or safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor get, but he has quietly become an integral part of that Seahawks secondary.
Seattle's divisional game against the Carolina Panthers should be evidence enough of Maxwell's value. While Maxwell sat out with an illness, replacement Tharold Simon was torched to the tune of 10 receptions on 10 targets for 114 yards and two touchdowns on balls thrown his way, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
That's good for a perfect passer rating.
Granted, Maxwell isn't exactly a shutdown cornerback, but he's been missed when he was off the field last season. The Seahawks have plenty of cap space heading into the offseason, but they also need to conserve much of it to re-sign some of their big-name players before 2016.
Incidentally, Chancellor is the Hulk, Sherman is Ironman and Thomas is Thor in this little milieu.
Contract: three years, $20 million, $7 million guaranteed
Devin McCourty, S, New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots finally have some stability in that secondary. Why break it up now?
Well, a lack of cap space might be a reason. The Patriots aren't in great shape as things stand, though that should change when they redo cornerback Darrelle Revis' contract.
Devin McCourty has been one of the best safeties in the league since moving over from cornerback, and head coach Bill Belichick probably knows it. While the Patriots have been notoriously stingy with free agents who may be demanding too much, they have always taken care of those worth keeping.
McCourty is one of those worth keeping.
Should he decide to test the market, McCourty will certainly find himself in demand—great safeties are few and far between in a passing league these days.
Price tag: four years, $40 million, $12 million guaranteed
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
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The wide receiver position has become one of the more valuable in the league, so Jeremy Maclin should have no trouble cashing in with a big contract after his fantastic comeback season.
Maclin tore his ACL just before the 2013 season heading into a contract year, losing millions in the process. He signed a one-year deal to stay in Philadelphia, and that proved to be a great decision by both parties.
The six-year veteran averaged 15.5 yards per reception en route to 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns, a massive rebound that should go a long way toward recuperating the money he lost in free agency a year ago.
The Eagles may have rookie sensation Jordan Matthews, but they can ill-afford to lose Maclin. For his part, Maclin wants to stay in Philadelphia, per Mark Eckel of NJ.com. But his services would certainly be coveted elsewhere, perhaps by his former head coach.
Price tag: four years, $45 million, $15 million guaranteed
Mike Iupati, OG, San Francisco 49ers
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The market is a bit thin along the offensive line, at least when compared to the wealth of talent we see elsewhere.
That dearth will be advantageous to Mike Iupati, one of the best offensive linemen set to hit free agency. The big guard has been a huge part of an offensive line that has been dominating at times over the past several seasons.
The 27-year-old is in his prime, and the 49ers might be headed in a new direction after head coach Jim Harbaugh left for bluer waters.
Price tag: four years, $20 million, $8 million guaranteed
Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina Panthers
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Greg Hardy's best hope is to win the appeal soon for his conviction on domestic violence charges that kept him out of the league for the entire 2014 season.
As it stands, it's unclear when Hardy might be back in the NFL even if the ruling is reversed. Running back Adrian Peterson was formally suspended after pleading no contest to child abuse charges during the season, and Hardy may be looking at a lengthy suspension regardless.
Should things break his way, however, teams are going to vie for his services. The question is whether any of them would pay a ton to sign him, given his ugly legal issues.
Before all the nastiness, Hardy was a rising star in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers knew it, which is why they hit him with the franchise tag a year ago. If he is exonerated, he will find work somewhere in the league. He may just need some time to get a big contract.
Price tag: two years, $15 million, $4 million guaranteed
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions
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Will he break J.J. Watt's record contract?
That's the question many will be asking about Ndamukong Suh, who is arguably second only to Watt when it comes to dominating the competition on the defensive side.
Suh's extracurricular nonsense might be a concern for the Detroit Lions or any other team looking to sign him, but his talent will ultimately win out. The best defensive tackle in the game will earn a contract that is liable to exceed Watt's $100 million deal from last offseason.
Price tag: six years, $105 million, $55 million guaranteed
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
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Were it not for Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas would be the best receiver slated to hit free agency.
The Broncos star was all but a lock to come back to Denver, but another early postseason exit has given way to turmoil among the coaching staff. Will this lead to some doubt for some impending free agents?
Thomas has become one of the best receivers in the league in his own right, overcoming a shredded Achilles after his second season—once upon a time a career death sentence—to post 1,400-plus receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns three years in a row.
Unlike his fellow free agent Julius Thomas, Demaryius doesn't have questions about how successful he may be without quarterback Peyton Manning slinging the ball. After all, he averaged 17.2 yards per reception with Tim Tebow under center.
Price tag: five years, $75 million, $25 million guaranteed
Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Justin Houston was already a rising star, but he picked an excellent time to have a career year.
The talented outside linebacker had 22 sacks for the Chiefs, coming just short of breaking Michael Strahan's record after collecting four in the final game of the season. He is key to Kansas City's defensive success, so the Chiefs would be remiss to let him go.
Of course, they would also be negotiating with Houston while he holds all the leverage. Most of the time it's the other way around, but Houston's Defensive Player of the Year-worthy season makes things a little more complicated.
A long-term deal is ideal for the Chiefs, of course, but they may have no choice but to slap Houston with the franchise tag and make him do it all again in 2015.
Price tag: one year, $13 million (franchise tag)
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
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When Jerry Jones opens up his pocketbook, you know something big is coming.
The Dallas Cowboys owner may have to make some tough decisions on keeping some of his own players, but retaining Dez Bryant is a no-brainer. The question is how much Jones is going to put up to keep his star receiver.
Jones may show off some Texas largesse with the contract he is going to offer Bryant to stay with the Cowboys. His contract may not set a record, but Bryant is still going to be among the top earners at his position regardless of where he signs.
Even if Bryant isn't re-signed to a big deal, the franchise tag is going to loom large. It's unlikely he will want to play on a one-year deal far under his market value, so expect him to negotiate in good faith with his own team.
Price tag: six years, $100 million, $45 million guaranteed
All free-agent and salary-cap information courtesy of Spotrac.com.
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