NFL Picks & Predictions Week 15: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
While last week didn't go as well as expected (I finished 6-9-1 against the spread), I gained back some self confidence, which is critical for any card-carrying member of #TeamDegenerate to possess.
I'm no longer on tilt. Why? Because I've made a series of excellent wagers (if I do say so myself) starting with the over in Atlanta/Green Bay this past Monday night and grabbing the Cardinals and the under this past Thursday night.
That means I'm feeling good about my Week 15 picks. And with the NFL regular season winding down and the playoffs approaching, it's time to separate the men from the boys.
Full disclosure: I've always been of the belief (and my personal results have proved this out) that the NFL gets easier to handicap in the final few weeks of the season and the playoffs. Once we know exactly what needs to happen for certain teams to make the playoffs (or clinch home-field advantage, etc.), it's much easier to figure out who will win and who will lose.
And while we aren't quite there yet, we're close enough that it starts to get just a teeny bit easier—and once Weeks 16 and 17 roll around, it'll really be time to make that money, yo.
But first, we need to nail this week. Let's make it one to remember, peeps.
Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 15.
Total Season ATS: 110-95-4 (including Arizona on Thursday)
Total Season Best Bets ATS: 34-39 (including Arizona on Thursday)
Thursday Night Football: Arizona at St. Louis
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Final Score: Arizona 12, St. Louis 6 (Arizona covers +6)
It's very rare to hit both the final score and the total and feel incredibly confident about both, but I managed to pull off the unlikely trifecta this past Thursday night.
I loved the Cardinals to cover the spread (it closed at a ridiculous +6) and also loved the under (40.5 points). And lo and behold, Arizona pulled out a 12-6 victory, cashing in both the game spread and the under.
The Cardinals did what the Cardinals have done all season: win, regardless of circumstance. It didn't matter that they lost backup quarterback Drew Stanton in the second half, leading to the immortal (read: hideous) Ryan Lindley entering the game. This Cardinals team overcomes all the odds, and a lot of it has to do with the overwhelming awesomeness of coach Bruce Arians.
Despite all the injuries they've faced, the Cardinals sit at 11-3 and are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. Once they get there, they'll surely be underdogs no matter who they play.
And I can't wait to grab an undervalued Cardinals team with the points (and probably the under) come playoff time and feel magnificent about doing so.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
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The Line: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (+2)
For the Atlanta Falcons, this game comes down to the availability of star receiver Julio Jones.
If he plays (coach Mike Smith expects him to be a true game-time decision), the Falcons will win and cover. There's no one on the Steelers who can hope to stop Jones, especially not on the fast track of the Georgia Dome.
If Jones doesn't play, the Steelers will win. With the uncertainty swirling, I'll take the home team getting the points, thank you very much.
And when Jones is announced as active on game day, I'll probably do a fancy jig in my living room to celebrate.
The Pick: Atlanta (+2)
Jacksonville at Baltimore
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The Line: Jacksonville at Baltimore (-13.5)
If you want to take the Jacksonville Jaguars to stay inside the number (+13.5), it'd be hard for me to blame you.
After all, the signs point to a Jaguars cover. Jacksonville is in the midst of a horrendous season (2-11) and dropped a hideous decision last week to the Texans that surely drove bettors (including yours truly) up the wall. It seems as if rookie quarterback Blake Bortles is aware of the spread before games and does everything in his power to ensure that the other team covers. Not good.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are flying high after an important victory last Sunday in Miami. Quarterback Joe Flacco—who is absolutely, unequivocally elite (glad I could clear that scintillating argument up)—is playing some of the best football of his career, and Baltimore is 8-5 with a real opportunity to make the playoffs.
So it would make sense to grab the Jaguars, as they seem undervalued.
That is, of course, until you remember that they're the Jaguars, and the only way they'd truly be undervalued would be if they were +99.5.
The Jaguars are terrible. They might be the "smart" pick, but I'd rather not spend three hours of my Sunday rooting for Blake Bortles to not screw up on the road.
Give me Flacco and the Ravens with a modicum of confidence.
The Pick: Baltimore (-13.5)
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Green Bay at Buffalo
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The Line: Green Bay at Buffalo (+4.5)
Much like the Jacksonville/Baltimore game, Sunday's tilt between the Packers and Bills in Buffalo provides an easy "on-paper" pick: the Bills at +4.5.
Think about it: The Packers are widely considered the best team in the league, and have racked up five consecutive wins, including beating the Patriots two weeks ago and putting on an aerial assault this past Monday night against Atlanta. With Aaron Rodgers playing at an MVP clip, their public stock has rarely been higher.
Conversely, the Bills are floundering a bit in the AFC playoff picture, having lost a heartbreaker in Denver last Sunday.
So what makes the Bills different from the Jaguars and should make you—a card-carrying member of #TeamDegenerate—lay your hard-earned money down on them?
It's that pass rush, yo.
Buffalo leads the NFL with 48 sacks, and should hassle Rodgers all game. Plus, earlier in the week, Packers coach Mike McCarthy spoke about how Buffalo is a tough place to play in.
The stars are aligning for a Bills cover. I won't pull the trigger on the outright upset special, but give me the Bills to fall inside the number.
The Pick: Buffalo (+4.5)
Tampa Bay at Carolina
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The Line: Tampa Bay at Carolina (-3.5)
First off, prayers up to Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who was involved in a car wreck earlier this week that will keep him out of this game. That was a scary scene, and a reminder to everyone to be safe this holiday season.
Now that the corny PSA is out of the way, let's talk gambling, shall we?
With Newton out of the lineup, Derek Anderson is once again in our lives and will try to keep Carolina's flickering playoff hopes alive (it felt dirty writing that sentence with Carolina at 4-8-1, but such is the dreadful NFC South). And as a result, the line dropped from Carolina -4.5 to Carolina -3.5.
Do I need to remind you that Anderson has already defeated the Buccaneers this season (Week 1, 20-14)? And that game was in Tampa Bay, and before the Bucs season had been fully doused in kerosene and set ablaze.
With the Panthers fighting for the playoffs and the Bucs inexplicably continuing to roll out 35-year-old Josh McCown at quarterback (all that's missing is Lovie Smith proclaiming "Rex is our quarterback" at postgame press conferences), I'm putting my faith in Derek Anderson and the Panthers.
Gulp.
The Pick: Carolina (-3.5)
Cincinnati at Cleveland
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The Line: Cincinnati at Cleveland (-1)
You all know that I'm always honest with you, one way or the other.
If I like a game, I'll tell you. If I feel like you shouldn't bet on the game with your worst enemy's money, I'll tell you that, too.
Well, this is my message concerning my pick for Bengals/Browns on Sunday: Don't listen to my advice.
That's right. I hate my pick, and I believe my pick will lose. And as a result, I will not be wagering my hard-earned money on the contest.
I think that everything is setting up for the Bengals to both cover and win the game. The spread was at Cincinnati -2.5 earlier in the week before Jonathan F. Football (aka Johnny Manziel) was named Cleveland's starter, at which point the public hysteria pushed the Browns to a one-point favorite.
And as you know, the casinos in Vegas didn't build themselves and yada yada yada....but I don't care.
I don't care because I want to root for Johnny Football. Hell, I need to root for Johnny Football. Plus, I'm starting Josh Gordon in three different fantasy semifinals, so it would be nice for him to actually get the football.
If you're going to bet on the game, I would recommend you grab the Bengals. Seriously.
But I don't want to go on record as picking against my boy JFF in his first game. I'm going with my heart over my head.
And that's precisely why my wallet won't be opening up for this one.
The Pick: Cleveland (-1)
Houston at Indianapolis
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The Line: Houston at Indianapolis (-6.5)
Quick: Who owns the Houston Texans?
For those of you who responded with Bob McNair—sorry, you're incorrect. It is in fact Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton who owns the Texans.
In five career games against the Texans, Hilton has hauled in 31 receptions for 611 yards and six touchdowns (all career highs against any one team). Earlier this season, Hilton torched Houston's secondary for 223 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions.
And this game is in the friendly confines of domed Lucas Oil Stadium, where Hilton thrives alongside his star quarterback, Andrew Luck.
While the Texans are on a bit of a roll and squarely in the playoff hunt, they aren't good enough to hang with Hilton and the Colts in Indianapolis. Expect Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to play hot potato with the football and for Hilton to score twice in a double-digit Indianapolis victory.
The Pick: Indianapolis (-6.5)
Oakland at Kansas City
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The Line: Oakland at Kansas City (-10)
Aside from Cincinnati/Cleveland (which doesn't really count because of the Manziel factor), no game featured more line movement this week than the Raiders and Chiefs in Kansas City.
The Chiefs opened up at -12, and were quickly bet down to -10. Meaning the public has gifted two full points to the team playing the Raiders.
Yes, I am aware that the Raiders are coming off an upset victory last week against San Francisco. And yeah, I'm also aware that the Raiders beat the Chiefs back on November 20. And you're right, the Chiefs have lost three consecutive games and are now on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture.
But use your noodles, people. Given all of these factors, the Chiefs are still a double-digit favorite over the Raiders. And as I said earlier, the public has gifted Kansas City two full points against perhaps the worst team in the NFL.
Take the Chiefs and don't look back. When Jamaal Charles is running for his first touchdown of the day, you'll thank me.
The Pick: Kansas City (-10)
Miami at New England
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The Line: Miami at New England (-7.5)
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a soul-crushing loss to the Ravens this past Sunday, and probably won't make the playoffs.
The New England Patriots just beat the Chargers—in San Diego—on Sunday Night Football.
Eighty-three percent of the gambling public believes the Patriots will win by eight points or more.
Earlier this week, I wrote a column and said that Dolphins coach Joe Philbin should be fired at season's end.
Do you really need anymore information?
The Pick: Miami (+7.5)
Washington at NY Giants
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The Line: Washington at NY Giants (-6.5)
How in the world are the Washington Redskins going to stop Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr.?
Answer: They won't.
This is the easiest game of the week to pick. The Redskins have totally packed it in, and coach Jay Gruden could be on his way out the door. Washington will start Colt McCoy at quarterback, which is like bringing a knife to a gunfight.
While the Giants won't remind anyone of the '85 Bears, they're leagues better than the Redskins.
Expect Big Blue to roll to victory. I'm taking the Giants with confidence.
The Pick: NY Giants (-6.5)
Denver at San Diego
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The Line: Denver at San Diego (+4)
The fact that this spread is over three points makes me really want to bet on the San Diego Chargers.
But then I remember what happened last Sunday night, as the Chargers lost to a superior team (New England) on their home field. With that having happened, how can I take them the following week against a superior team (Denver) at home?
While Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning hasn't been his normal, Hall of Fame self over the past two weeks (31-of-54 passing), the return of tight end Julius Thomas should help to open up the passing game, and that should be a scary thought for Chargers bettors.
Ultimately, the Broncos are the better team, and will win by seven or more.
The Pick: Denver (-4)
NY Jets at Tennessee
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The Line: NY Jets at Tennessee (+3)
Nick Kostos Gambling Axiom No. 1 states that when two bad teams get together and the home team is the underdog, you take the points and don't look back, yo.
But Nick Kostos Gambling Axiom No. 1.1 states that when two bad teams get together and the home team is the underdog, you take the points and don't look back, yo—unless the home team is the pathetic Tennessee Titans, in which case you lay the points with a smile on your face.
The Pick: NY Jets (-3)
Minnesota at Detroit
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The Line: Minnesota at Detroit (-7.5)
Lions fans have gotten on me quite a bit this year for me picking against their team, and to them I say—I feel ya, dawgs.
Your team has been ultra-impressive over the course of the season, and it's taken me a while to come around as a believer. But I think it's finally happened, as covering in back-to-back weeks (against Chicago and Tampa Bay) has made me feel good about wagering on the Lions.
This week, however, I just can't do it. I can't grab the Lions at this number. It's too many points.
I do expect the Lions to win the game, but the Vikings are playing well right now and should be able to cover the number. Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is improving on a weekly basis, and the Vikings have an underrated defense under coach Mike Zimmer.
If the spread were Detroit -6.5, I'd feel pretty good about taking it. But with Minnesota at +7.5 (and the half-point hook being huge), I like the Vikings with confidence.
Don't hate me, Lions fans. I'm just doing what I need to do, yo.
The Pick: Minnesota (+7.5)
San Francisco at Seattle
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The Line: San Francisco at Seattle (-10)
It hurts me to do this. Really, it does.
Regular readers of mine know that I predicted the 49ers would beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. I have so much respect for Jim Harbaugh, and my man crush on Colin Kaepernick used to border on the absurd.
More than anything, I'd love to take the 49ers with the points and feel great about it.
But I just can't. Because I know what will happen if I do: I'll turn the game on, and after the 49ers go three and out on their first drive (complete with at least one false start penalty), I'll be devastated. I'll know that I chose the wrong side, and spend the next three hours in various states of mental duress.
I can't deal with the prospect of Kaepernick locking onto one receiver and tossing inaccurate missiles at 150 mph. I can't stomach the idea of Pete Carroll ranting and raving on the sideline as the Seahawks score yet another defensive touchdown.
I'm taking the Seahawks to win and cover. Not because I want to, but because it's the right play.
The Pick: Seattle (-10)
Sunday Night Football: Dallas at Philadelphia
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The Line: Dallas at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Full disclosure: I picked the Cowboys to both win and cover against the Eagles on Thanksgiving. Obviously, neither happened.
So why am I going back to the well again and taking the Cowboys to not only cover against the Eagles—but to win the game outright?
Because I trust Tony Romo, damn it.
(Voice in my head: But Nick—it's December! You know what happens to Romo and the Cowboys in December!)
I know, I know—but this is a different Romo and a different Cowboys team. I'm in the middle of my pick, go away!
(Voice in my head: Nick, don't do it! It's almost Christmas! Save your money!)
I'm going to do it, and that's that. When the fourth quarter hits and the game is close, I'd rather have my money on Tony Romo than Mark Sanchez. I have more trust in Tony Romo.
(Voice inside my head: You're a real schmuck, you know that, right?)
Chip Kelly might be a better coach than Jason Garrett, but I'm making this pick because of Romo. I think he leads Dallas to a late victory and shuts up more of the haters in the process.
The Pick: Dallas (+3.5)
Monday Night Football: New Orleans at Chicago
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The Line: New Orleans at Chicago (+3)
The Chicago Bears aren't just your average, run-of-the-mill dumpster fire. Oh, no—they are a sight to behold. They're a dumpster fire wrapped in disaster and topped with a heaping of fan disgust.
Their dysfunction makes the Kardashian family look normal by comparison. The offensive coordinator is calling out the quarterback to the press and then apologizing for it, the head coach is lost, and the aforementioned quarterback looks like he'd rather be drinking Natty Lites on the couch instead of playing football on an NFL Sunday.
Chicago's opponent on Monday night, the Saints, aren't exactly a model of efficiency, either. New Orleans—a chic Super Bowl pick before the season (including by the moron writing this column)—has crashed and burned to a 5-8 record, but because it plays in the NFC South, it still has a real shot to make the playoffs.
The bottom line is that the Saints, for all their foibles, aren't even close to being as big of a disaster as the Bears.
Plus, the Saints have eschewed their normal home-field advantage for road-warrior status (New Orleans has won two straight away from the Superdome), and this game will be played in front of an angry (and likely drunken) crowd at Solider Field.
After Cutler throws a first-quarter interceptions and decides not to chase down the galloping defender, you'll feel wonderful about your choice of New Orleans -3.
The Pick: New Orleans (-3)
Surefire Locks of the Week
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Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread
- N.Y. Giants (-6.5 vs. Washington)
- N.Y. Jets (-3 at Tennessee)
- Buffalo (+4.5 vs. Green Bay)
- Minnesota (+7.5 at Detroit)
- Arizona (+4.5 vs. St Louis—given out on Twitter during week)
Best 'Under' Bets of the Week
- Green Bay at Buffalo (under 50 points)
- Oakland at Kansas City (under 41.5 points)
Best 'Over' Bets of the Week
- Washington at N.Y. Giants (over 47 points)
- Tampa Bay at Carolina (over 41 points)
All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!
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