NFL Picks & Predictions Week 12: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Last week was yet another winning one for your boy, the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate (T-shirts coming soon, I promise!).

I racked up an 9-5 record to move to 22 games over .500 for the season. And I even went 4-1 in the Hilton SuperContest (where I'm sponsored by the fine folks at OddsShark), so it was fun times all around.

I'm starting out this week 1-0 after cashing with the Raiders on Thursday night. I'm feelin' it right now. To paraphrase the Black Eyed Peas, this weekend's gonna be a good one. 

It's time, peeps. It's time to make that money, yo.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 12.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Total Season ATS: 91-69-3 (including Oakland on Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 28-28 (including Oakland on Thursday night)

Thursday Night Football: Kansas City at Oakland

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Final Score: Oakland 24, Kansas City 20 (Oakland covers +7)

I'll admit it: I got goosebumps watching the Oakland Raiders earn their first victory in more than a calendar year, downing the red-hot Chiefs this past Thursday night.

And yeah, the fact that I played the Raiders at +7 (easiest bet of the week, mind you) didn't hurt either.

But seriously: The NFL is better when the Raiders are competitive. Despite their woeful 0-10 mark and the driving rainstorm on Thursday night in Oakland, the Raiders fans packed the Black Hole and were going nuts throughout. That's true dedication, and is worthy of a hat tip from this #TeamDegenerate captain. Nice job, Raider Nation.

Plus, the play where Raiders linebackers Sio Moore and Khalil Mack celebrated for approximately four hours after a third-down play on Kansas City's final drive will go down as one of the funniest moments in NFL history.

Good for Raiders interim coach Tony Sparano and rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Unless you're a Chiefs fan (or stupidly wagered on Kansas City), you loved the end result of Thursday's game.

I know I did.

Cleveland at Atlanta

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

The Line: Cleveland at Atlanta (-3)

Do you see the man in the picture above?

His name is Josh Gordon—aka Flash, aka JG12, aka WR1—the best wide receiver in football. And on Sunday, he makes his triumphant return to the Cleveland Browns lineup after missing the first 10 games of the season due to suspension.

Last year, Gordon led the NFL in receiving yards (1,646) despite playing in only 14 games, so there's no question he's going to make a huge impact. Anyone questioning whether Gordon will be "rusty" should probably re-evaluate his or her life. And if you stashed Gordon in your fantasy league and are considering sitting him, I have a piece of advice for you: Delete your team, stop watching football and find a new hobby.

Gordon is the Galactus of receivers: a veritable destroyer of worlds, capable of laying waste to the opposition by his lonesome. I don't care that Falcons stud corner Desmond Trufant will be covering him all game. Why? Because Trufant can't cover Josh Gordon. Because no one can cover Gordon. Because Gordon is WR1, damn it.

Gordon will annihilate the Falcons' overmatched defense, and the Browns will win outright.

And yeah, it also helps that Atlanta's four wins this season all came inside its own hideous division, the NFC South. It ain't beating the Browns. 

The Pick: Cleveland (+3)

Tampa Bay at Chicago

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Line: Tampa Bay at Chicago (-6)

Who doesn't love a good ol' revenge game?

On Sunday, former Chicago coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown make their (not-so) triumphant return to the Windy City to take on their old team, the Bears. Unfortunately for Smith and McCown, it's been a miserable season in Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers are floundering at 2-8—but thanks to the atrocious NFC South, they still find themselves within striking distance of the division lead.

Meanwhile, the Bears showed some moxie last week in downing the Vikings, essentially saving their season from degenerating into a full-on dumpster fire. 

This is one of those games where I could see anything happening. Would I be shocked if McCown and star rookie receiver Mike Evans lit up the awful Bears defense and led the Bucs to a 10-point victory? No, I would not. Would I be shocked if the Bucs—as has been their modus operandi for the majority of the season—came out and laid an absolute egg, making Marc Trestman and Jay Cutler look like Mike Ditka and Jim McMahon? No, I would not.

And when you could see anything happening, there's only one thing to do, yo.

Take the damn points and don't look back.

The Pick: Tampa Bay (+6)

Cincinnati at Houston

Bill Haber/Associated Press

The Line: Cincinnati at Houston (-2)

Cincinnati at Houston is actually one of the more intriguing games of the week, rife with AFC playoff implications.

Both squads are coming off excellent road wins—Cincinnati having downed the Saints in New Orleans, and the Texans having beaten the Browns in Cleveland in quarterback Ryan Mallett's first NFL start.

Now, Mallett finds himself as a favorite for the first time in his career, which begs the follow-up question: Why?

The Bengals are the better team with the better overall defense (sorry, J.J. Watt) and the better quarterback (gulp).

Seriously, though: As much as we like to bang on the Bengals and Andy Dalton (and with good reason), they have been to the playoffs for three straight years. The Texans are building something good, but they aren't there just yet.

I know that the number is tempting and looks good for Houston, but don't fall for the patented Vegas Jedi mind trick. Cincinnati will win this game outright.

The Pick: Cincinnati (+2)

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Line: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14)

I want to be generous and say I spent three seconds deciding who to take in this game, but that'd be a lie.

I couldn't circle the Indianapolis Colts fast enough to win and cover over the brutally bad Jacksonville Jaguars.

My fellow members of #TeamDegenerate: Do you really want to wager your hard-earned money on Blake Bortles and the Jaguars? And have to root against Andrew Luck as he slices and dices the Jaguars defense? 

If you want to pay for three hours of misery, be my guest. I just won't be there alongside you, yo.

The Pick: Indianapolis (-14)

Green Bay at Minnesota

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

The Line: Green Bay at Minnesota (+9.5)

The Green Bay Packers have scored over 50 points in each of their last two games and have the look and feel of a Super Bowl contender.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-6 and coming off a horrendous loss in Chicago.

Eighty-three percent of the betting public believes the Packers will win by double digits.

It's Week 12, peeps. You should know the damn drill by now.

The Pick: Minnesota (+9.5)

Detroit at New England

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

The Line: Detroit at New England (-7)

For the majority of the week, over 90 percent of the betting public wagered their hard-earned money on the New England Patriots beating the Detroit Lions by more than a touchdown.

The fountain outside the Bellagio did not materialize out of thin air.

The Pick: Detroit (+7)

Tennesse at Philadelphia

Michael Perez/Associated Press

The Line: Tennessee at Philadelphia (-11)

If I were a gambling man (LOL), I'd bet that if you're reading this column you likely play fantasy football.

And if you play fantasy football, chances are you currently despise Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy.

After being selected first overall in any fantasy league with competent participants, McCoy has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry this year and scored two rushing touchdowns. It's gotten to the point where he should consider embarking on an apology tour, going door-to-door to personally apologize to fantasy owners across the country for his substandard play.

The worst part of the McCoy fiasco is that every week, it seems like he's ready to break out. But I'm tellin' ya: THIS is the week that Shady is set to break out. 

Last week, Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell made the Titans run defense look like the cast of the movie Little Giants. In theory, this is a spot where McCoy and the Eagles ground game should absolutely dominate.

So expect McCoy to rush 12 times for 36 yards and backup Darren Sproles to score three touchdowns in a blowout Eagles victory.

The Pick: Philadelphia (-11)

St. Louis at San Diego

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Line: St. Louis at San Diego (-5)

San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is listed on the injury report with a chest injury (with the "probable" designation, which means there's a 10000000 percent chance he plays), and earlier in the week tight end Antonio Gates told the media that Rivers has been dealing with a "severe" rib injury.

Rivers, who possesses the mobility of an especially rigid gargoyle, has zero hope of not being mashed into the turf by the revitalized St. Louis Rams pass rush. You know, the same pass rush that destroyed Peyton Manning last week as the Rams upset the Broncos.

I'm actually nervous for Rivers. When Rams defensive end Robert Quinn and star rookie defensive tackle Aaron Donald are done with him, they might have to peel Rivers off the field with a spatula.

And in the event that Rivers is knocked out of the game, former Rams legend Kellen Clemens would become the Chargers signal-caller.

As unfortunate as that would be for Rivers...LOL.

The Pick: St. Louis (+5)

Miami at Denver

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The Line: Miami at Denver (-7)

The vast majority of the betting public (over 80 percent throughout the week) is backing the Denver Broncos, yet the line on this game has moved in favor of the Miami Dolphins.

Hmmm......

Expect Dolphins defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to harass Peyton Manning throughout the game and keep Miami inside the number.

The Pick: Miami (+7)

Arizona at Seattle

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Line: Arizona at Seattle (-7)

As regular readers of this column (and card-carrying members of #TeamDegenerate) know, I play everyone's favorite game at the conclusion of each and every NFL Sunday: Guess the spread!

And homie, when I did it this week, I installed the Seahawks at -4 at home against the 9-1 Cardinals, and to be honest, I felt pretty dirty about it. Seattle might be the defending Super Bowl champions and worthy of respect, but the Cardinals are the better team—even with Drew Stanton at quarterback. 

So imagine my surprise when I actually checked the spreads and saw that the Seahawks opened at -6—meaning that if the game were in Arizona, it would be a pick 'em. And now, the line is all the way up to seven!

That is a straight-up insult to coach Bruce Arians and the Cardinals, and no one puts Bruce Arians in the corner.

The Cardinals are the better team, and could definitely win the game outright—much like they did in Seattle last year. I love the Cards to finish inside the ludicrously inflated number.

The Pick: Arizona (+7)

Washington at San Francisco

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The Line: Washington at San Francisco (-9)

As I like to say, the casinos in Vegas didn't build themselves—which is why I like to go against the public when they're extremely heavy on one side.

In this particular contest, the vast majority of the public is backing the 49ers, and with good reason: The Redskins are an absolute clown show, with quarterback Robert Griffin III and owner Daniel Snyder sharing the white face paint, red nose and flower that shoots out water. 

In fact, if I were a Redskins fan (and I thank the sports gods that I'm not), I would be brutally depressed this week. After last week's deplorable effort against Tampa Bay, Griffin delivered one of the more tone-deaf press conferences in the history of organized civilization, wherein he threw his teammates under the bus. Of course, Griffin then said he'd never throw his teammates under the bus, which would be like me saying I've never gambled on sports before.

After Griffin once again inserted his foot into his mouth, coach Jay Gruden publicly blasted Griffin's play to the news media. It was a stroke of brilliance by Gruden, who saved his criticism for a place where Snyder couldn't protect his prized (and awful) quarterback.

So of course, what happened later in the week? Gruden came out and apologized for singling Griffin out, and Griffin tried to mimic Bill Belichick by repeating the mantra, "We're focused on San Francisco." Except, you know, there's no way Gruden was actually sorry and the only way Griffin could resemble Belichick in any regard is if he wore a cut-off gray Patriots hoodie next Halloween.

Gruden obviously got called to the principal's (Snyder) office and reprimanded. 

What an absolute joke.

The Redskins will never win—I repeat, never win—as long as the clueless and overmatched Daniel Snyder owns the team.

In this instance, I'm with the public. You cannot—I repeat, cannot—wager your hard-earned money on Robert Griffin III. You either bet the 49ers or don't bet at all.

As for me? I think the 49ers are going to pound the Redskins into dust. And then I'ma get my popcorn ready for the postgame press conference to see how Griffin plans on sinking to a new low. It's a tradition unlike any other!

The Pick: San Francisco (-9)

Sunday Night Football: Dallas at NY Giants

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

The Line: Dallas at NY Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants are horrendous. They have no talent. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo looks like he should be smoking Marlboro reds at a truckstop, not calling 7,000 consecutive fade passes down by the goal line. I have a better chance of dating Jennifer Lawrence than Jerry Reese does of returning as Giants general manager.

Other than that, Big Blue is great!

Conversely, the Cowboys are 7-3 and well rested after their bye week. Quarterback Tony Romo should lay waste to the laughable Giants defense.

True story: Earlier this week, a coworker at SiriusXM asked me if the Giants would be able to successfully take Dez Bryant out of the game by doubling him. I responded by laughing in my moron coworker's face.

Don't overthink this. Don't let the hook dissuade you. 

The Giants stink. The Cowboys don't. It's a simple as that.

The Pick: Dallas (-3.5)

Monday Night Football, Part I: NY Jets at Buffalo (in Detroit)

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The Line: NY Jets at Buffalo (-4.5)

First of all, I hope that everyone in lovely Western New York—#TeamDegenerate members or otherwise—finds themselves safe and sound after the preposterous amount of snowfall this past week.

Just looking at the picture above makes me queasy. As a lifelong East Coaster (New York born, New York bred, and when I die I'll be New York dead), there are no words to accurately describe how much I despise both snow and the winter. And I've never understood the dudes who enjoy cold weather more than hot. Oh, you want to freeze your ass off in 20 degree weather? Be my guest, schmuck. I'd rather rock a T-shirt and shorts all day err day, but what the hell do I know?

The one silver lining of this ridiculous snowstorm is that #TeamDegenerate gets to wager on a Monday night doubleheader, which is pretty damn amazing. The prospect of gambling on two games this Monday makes me positively giddy.

The fact that the game will now be played in Detroit doesn't change my opinion in the slightest. I would have picked the Jets if the game had been played on Sunday in Buffalo in 50 degree weather with clear skies. 

The Bills are struggling mightily on offense, which happens when Kyle Orton is your quarterback. The Jets are coming off the bye and have some juice with Michael Vick at quarterback (I can't believe I just typed that sentence). 

Forget the points—the Jets will win this game outright.

The Pick: NY Jets (+4.5)

Monday Night Football, Part II: Baltimore at New Orleans

Bill Haber/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at New Orleans (-3)

To me, this game represents a total coin flip.

If it were in Baltimore, I would absolutely take the Ravens.

But it's in New Orleans, so I'm going to take the Saints.

Expect the Saints to get off the schneid and claim a huge home victory that will push them one step closer to winning the worst division of all time, the 2014 NFC South.

The Pick: New Orleans (-3)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week ATS

1. Detroit (+7 at New England)
2. Arizona (+7 at Seattle)
3. Minnesota (+9.5 vs. Green Bay)
4. NY Jets (+4.5 at Buffalo)
5. Oakland (+7 vs. Kansas City)—Thursday night, given on Twitter during week

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1. Detroit at New England (under 47.5 points)
2. St. Louis at San Diego (under 43 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1. Cleveland at Atlanta (over 47 points)
2. Tampa Bay at Chicago (over 46.5 points)

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here, and let him know!