NFL Week 11 Picks: Eagles, Packers Move Beyond the Blowouts

Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, including thoughts about what it means to win a blowout and what it means to win a bye week. 

Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.

Eagles at Packers 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. 

Line: Packers -7

Everybody's blowing everybody else out these days. If a team isn't trouncing its opponent, it's getting trounced. What ever happened to old-fashioned 10-point victories? Nowadays, every final is 55-14 or 45-21. Even the Ravens and Steelers don't play 23-20 games anymore: They take turns thumping each other in 26-6 and 43-20 routs. Kids these days need to get their Google off my lawn. 

There have been 39 games decided by 20 or more points this season. There were only 53 such blowouts in 2013, 57 in 2012 and 54 in 2011. Not to throw a table full of decimals at you in the second paragraph, but here is how this year stacks up against past years in blowouts-per-16 games:

Year	Blowouts per 16 games
2014	4.2
2013	3.3
2012	3.5
2011	3.4

So we are getting about two extra blowouts every three weeks that did not happen in past seasons. And they are not all Broncos-Raiders games. Many teams have been on both the giving and receiving ends of routs: the Broncos (several wins, Patriots loss), Patriots (several wins, Chiefs loss), Packers (Vikings, Panthers and both Bears wins, Seahawks and Saints losses), and many of the second-tier contenders.

The blowouts make it hard to soberly evaluate many teams. The Chargers beat the Jets 31-0 but lost to the Dolphins 37-0. What do you make of that? What sense, if any, can be made of the AFC North?

Worst of all, what do we do about the Eagles and Packers, who are coming off such massive prime-time victories that they enter Sunday looking like two armies of superheroes?

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

There are extenuating circumstances to both the Packers' Sunday night win against the Bears and the Eagles' Monday night win over the Panthers. The Bears wouldn't give each other a shot of whiskey before a Civil War amputation right now. And Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is protected by a Canadian college all-star team, and he is also injured. Head coach Ron Rivera may claim otherwise, but athletic 20-somethings don't move like Newton did on Monday night unless they are suffering from numerous injuries or playing Scrooge in community theater.

The Eagles (with two 20-plus point wins and no blowout losses on the year) and Packers have benefited from two of the NFL's easiest schedules. Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' past schedule as the NFL's easiest, the Packers 24th (which doesn't seem to factor in the "Bears have quit for the year" variable). Both teams are very good, but smooth sledding has made them look better than they appear.

The Packers will provide the first true test for the Mark Sanchez Eagles, with the Seahawks and two Cowboys games looming on the immediate horizon. The Packers have not yet beaten a legitimate contender (waiting for the Dolphins to cough up a lung in the fourth quarter does not count). Beating the Eagles can not only provide future tiebreaker advantages, but can also set the tone for upcoming challenges against the Patriots and Lions.

It's important to remember that blowouts are significant indicators of how good a team really is. Great teams don't always win close games, but they usually win more than their share of blowouts.

Of the 164 wins by a margin of 20-plus points from 2011 to 2013, 104 were by teams that would make the playoffs that season; 11 others came from teams that finished with winning records but failed to reach the playoffs. (Last year's Cardinals won two blowouts, for example.) Eventual playoff teams were only routed 25 times from 2011 through 2013, and three of those blowouts came at the expensive of the 2011 Broncos, modern NFL history's great outlier. The Packers and Eagles may be on a sugar high right now, but they are also walking a familiar path to the playoffs across the backs of beaten-up or beaten-down opponents.

If a team has a handful of blowouts on its resume, it's probably a contender. A couple of blowout losses spell trouble. A couple of each? That's just a sign that it is 2014.

Prediction: Packers 31, Eagles 24

Patriots at Colts 

Sunday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Colts -2.5

Among their many other talents, the Patriots are capable of winning bye weeks.

A team wins its bye week when its toughest division foes lose while it sits idle. The team gains a half game in the standings by doing nothing. For the Patriots, it's as much a privilege of their rank and stature as referee courtesy nudge when a player lines up incorrectly for a late field goal.

The Patriots watched the pesky Dolphins and Bills lose last week. The Jets won, but they are already safely eliminated from contention, and they helped the Patriots by cooling off the Steelers. The Bengals also lost, so the Patriots returned to practice this week with a comfy two-game lead in the AFC East and pole position for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

During the Patriots' Week 10 bye last year, the Dolphins and Bills both lost, as did the Bengals and Colts. Once again, the Patriots extended their division lead and gained playoff seeding ground.

During the Patriots' Week 9 bye in 2012, both the Dolphins and Bills lost, while the Jets were on bye (as they were last year). The Jets (more dangerous in those days) won during the Patriots' Week 7 bye in 2011, but the Dolphins lost one of the first Tebowmania games, which unleashed complex forces upon the universe that ultimately left the Patriots battling a folktale in the playoffs. The Ravens also lost during the Patriots Week 7 bye, which led to an AFC championship game in Foxboro instead of in Baltimore, one of the most extreme home-field advantage splits in the league. 

And so it goes. You don't get in position to win the bye week unless you win plenty of other games, of course. The Colts also won last week's bye, but no one noticed because the rest of the AFC South is a ball pit for toddlers. The Colts are two games up on their nearest division foe but still a solid year away from challenging the Patriots. And as their bye week victory proves, the Patriots don't have any familiar foes to fear either.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 24

Lions at Cardinals 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. 

Line: Even

There is no historical precedent for a Lions-Cardinals game that has playoff implications for both teams.

The Lions and Cardinals only reached the playoffs in the same year once in NFL history: in 1982, when the league temporarily created an expanded 16-game postseason due to a strike. (The Cardinals made the playoffs at 5-4, the Lions at 4-5. They never met.) The two teams have only met once after November 1 in a season where both finished with winning records. The 7-4 Lions beat the 8-2-1 Cardinals on December 6, 1970 by a 16-3 score. Greg Landry and Jim Hart were the quarterbacks, but Errol Mann was the Lions hero with field goals of 10, 13, and 14 yards. Yes, it was so long ago that the goalposts were in the front of the end zone.

The last time these teams met after November 1 with both teams possessing a winning record at kickoff was in the 1975 season finale. Terry Metcalf and Jerry Latin had rushing touchdowns, and the Cardinals returned a blocked a Lions field goal for a touchdown in a 24-13 win that propelled Don Coryell's team into the playoffs. The Lions fell to 7-7 for the year. That game was not really playoff significant for both sides—the Lions were already eliminated—and it was so long ago that Metcalf's son has now been retired for 12 years.

DW/Associated Press

So this is no ordinary matchup between first-place teams. This is history. The Lions and Cardinals are both good, deep into the season, for the first time ever. And the quarterback in the middle of this historic moment is...Drew Stanton, the former Lions second-round pick now thrust into a starting job after Carson Palmer's ACL tear.

A "playoff preview" between legendary sad-sack organizations and The Revenge of Drew Stanton in one package? It's all very hard to process, let alone analyze. But let's give it a whirl:

• Neither team will be able to run the ball. The Lions average just 3.1 yards per rush but allow just 3.2 yards. The Cardinals average 3.2 yards per rush but allow 3.4 yards.

• Passing will also be difficult. The Lions pass defense is stingy. The Cardinals pass defense is opportunistic. The Lions will trade one long Cardinals touchdown for a bunch of sacks and pressure-related incompletions. The Cardinals will lock Patrick Peterson on Calvin Johnson all game and trade one long touchdown for whatever mistakes Matthew Stafford offers.

• Mistakes will be capitalized upon. The Lions average 27.2 yards per interception return. The Cardinals have two return touchdowns.

• The kicking contest is no contest. The Lions field-goal unit has problems that go beyond Matt Prater, though we are starting to figure out why the Broncos moved on from Prater so quickly. Rookie Chandler Catanzaro has been brilliant for the Cardinals, a team that has a knack for blocking field goals.

Defense, returns and special teams: This game is going to be messy. But Cardinals-Lions games have always been messy. This is the first one that has ever been messily important. Field goals and blocked kicks made the difference the last time these teams met in a game that mutually mattered. It took a few decades, but history is about to repeat itself.

Prediction: Cardinals 19, Lions 17

Bengals at Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. 

Line: Saints -8

Quarterbacks can have bad games, awful games, Cutler-Romo turnover jubilees, Cam Newton Little Big Horn ambushes, new rotations of the Jets disappointment cycle or plain-old, flat-and-ugly 14-of-26 for 136 yards-and-an-interception afternoons of dreary melancholy (the Joe Flacco road special).

And then there are reputation-shattering games like the one Andy Dalton had last Thursday night. His 10-of-33, 86-yard, three-interception performance was the quarterback equivalent of lighting your own mattress on fire with a cigarette.

Dalton's memorable Thursday night, with an assist from a defense that has clearly never seen a Shanahan family gameplan before (play action off inside zone…where did THAT come from?) reminded us that no matter what the Bengals do during regional 1 p.m. games, they are sure to get stage fright when the spotlight's on. And since Sunday's game has playoff implications and involves a championship-pedigreed opponent on the road, expect some jitters, despite the early start.

The Saints played well enough to win last week, and they will be focused and ready if they can get past the excuse-making stage for Jimmy Graham's Hail Mary pass interference penalty, a blatant and obvious foul that many people want to explain away for a variety of strange reasons. (The defender flopped! Refs should swallow the whistles on Hail Mary passes! Ummm…that play was really fun to watch so I just WANT it to count!)

The Bengals got one of their biggest wins of the year thanks to offensive pass interference on a long touchdown: a push-off negated an 80-yard Steve Smith touchdown that would have given the Ravens the win in Week 8. That play has just been blended in to the AFC North porridge of passing records, upsets, blowouts, Brownouts and ties. Even dramatic plays like nullified last-minute touchdowns fade from memory over the course of a long season. But 10-of-33 performances against division rivals in prime time tend to linger.

Prediction: Saints 27, Bengals 19

49ers at Giants 

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: 49ers -4

An excerpt from Coaching Drills for Pee-Wee Leagues, Maori Tribesman Leagues and others Seeing a Football for the First Time:

Hey coach! Is your team facing the read-option offense for the first time? Or have two of your division opponents used read-option tactics regularly for several seasons, but your defense still acts like it is seeing them for the first time? These drills can help you prepare for back-to-back playoff-caliber option-heavy opponents. Follow this weekly practice schedule, and you can learn to defend the read option the New York Giants way!

Monday: Film Session. Don't watch Seahawks film, 49ers film, Eagles film, 2012 Redskins film or University of Oregon film. Watch Doris Day and David Niven in Please Don't Eat the Daisies (1960).

Tuesday: Backside Containment is for Sissies Drill. At the snap, all defenders on the backside of the play charge after the running back like he is carrying a suitcase full of $100 bills. This drill guarantees complete vulnerability against not only a quarterback keeper, but a reverse or even a pokey little bootleg pass.

Wednesday: Overpursue Like a Puppy Chasing a Rolling Meatball Drill. Perfect for those pesky inside and outside zone plays. When the offensive line zone blocks to their left, coach your defenders to run 10 yards past them. Make sure they stay outside those blockers at all costs! Cutback lanes are a myth promulgated by the lamestream media.

Thursday: Never Learn From Mistakes Drill. Practice Tuesday and Wednesday's drills over and over again. You want your defense playing the same way in the fourth quarter that it did in the first quarter!

Friday: Defensive Communication Drill. Mouthiest guy on your defense goes on radio stations throughout your region, blaming everyone else for the team's misfortunes. Other defenders receive medical treatment.

Sunday: Game time! Your opponent has decided to go with a five-wide spread offense, negating everything you practiced all week. And that may not be a bad thing.

Prediction: 49ers 26, Giants 17

Seahawks at Chiefs 

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Chiefs -1

The Chiefs gained just 278 net offensive yards in their 13-10 win over the Bills last Sunday. They spent most of the second half pinned deep in their own territory like a boxer against the ropes: flailing, punting and counting on their defense to stop the Bills once the clench gave them a little space. It worked, because the Bills were too shorthanded on offense to land any real punches.

When the Seahawks have you pinned inside your own territory, they know how to do damage. Opponents average just 1.9 yards per run inside their own 20-yard line against the Seahawks (from the Football Outsiders internal database). Opposing quarterbacks complete just 50 percent of their passes from deep in their own territory and have been sacked three times in 26 dropbacks. Tony Romo and Cam Newton completed haymaker bombs to escape the Seahawks' trap, but we're still waiting for the first Chiefs pass play longer than 35 yards, so that's not going to happen on Sunday.

The Seahawks excel at this sort of field-position football/scientific boxing. Both teams will jab with Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch while counter-punching with screens and options, and the fight will be close in the early rounds. But the Seahawks punch with far more power than the Chiefs' last two opponents, and when they back the Chiefs into a corner, it will be all over in a hurry.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Chiefs 13

Vikings at Bears 

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Bears -2.5 

The Vikings' last three opponents:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 1-5 entering the game, coming off a 48-17 loss and stuck in a quarterback conundrum with no right answers, with half of their roster on the trading block. A last-second field goal and overtime turnover give the Vikings a 19-13 win.

The Washington Redskins were 3-5 entering the game, starting a fresh chapter in a never-ending quarterback saga and injury-riddled on defense. The Redskins team bus non-metaphorically crashed before the game. A fourth-quarter comeback and fourth down stop give the Vikings a 29-26 win.

The Chicago Bears are 3-6 entering the game, coming off back-to-back losses of 51-23 and 55-14. The last team to give up 50 points in back-to-back games was the 1923 Rochester Jeffersons, who were essentially a semipro sandlot club from the era when the NFL was more of a loose affiliation of barnstorming teams than a modern sports league. More disorganized than the Buccaneers and more fractured than the Redskins, the Bears enter this game like a bunch of fraternity brothers who crammed a mule into the dean's office as a prank, except that the mule died, but not before munching on everyone's student loan paperwork and pooping on the banner commemorating Nelson Mandela's 1994 campus visit, on their way to a Greek Council disciplinary hearing.

You know how mother tigers rough up their prey before giving their cubs an easy, developmental kill? The NFL is not doing that for Teddy Bridgewater, but it sometimes seems that way.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 7

Falcons at Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Even

If the Saints lose to the Bengals, the winner of this game is in first place in the NFC South. That's both scary and embarrassing: scarebarrassing. Panthers offensive linemen spend more time lying on the ground than patio pavers, their defensive backs mistake "running alongside receivers" for "covering receivers," and Cam Newton staggers to his feet from the huddle and approaches the line like grandpa climbing the basement stairs after fixing the boiler. The Falcons have a little more dignity, but only because they keep facing Josh McCown or losing early morning games overseas.

It's almost as hard to imagine the Panthers winning as the Bears winning right now. Newton looks like Gary Cooper in High Noon, but with an injured trigger finger. A win makes the Falcons 4-0 in the Sun Belt Conference but 0-6 in the real world, and their season-opening head-to-head win over the Saints could make them playoff sleepers if they can reach 6-8—or even 5-9—before facing the Panthers and Saints again in the season's final weeks. Scarebarrassing.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 14

Texans at Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Browns -3

Ryan Mallet makes his starting debut in this game, and Texans fans will soon learn what most of us intuitively know: If watching Tom Brady for several years makes you a great quarterback, then we would all be great quarterbacks.

Oh, Mallet will probably fare pretty well, at least during the getting-to-know-you stage. It just may be difficult to live up to the hype generated by months of trade rumors. Brian Hoyer is doing alright for himself, though it helps to only have to complete 8-of-15 passes against divisional foes that play like their plane touched down 20 minutes before kickoff when they face the Browns.

The Browns are 6-3 and in early adulation mode. They execute well in all phases and have made the most of both an easy early schedule and preparation lapses by their divisional rivals. Browns fans have to be excited that some real infrastructure is getting built for long-term success. But if you believe that the Brian Hoyer Era is upon us, you need to take a second look at the Buccaneers tape, let alone the Jaguars tape.

Winner of this game gets to keep Matt Cassel's old diamond-studded clipboard until Jimmy Garoppolo is ready to inherit it.

Prediction: Texans 22, Browns 20

Buccaneers at Redskins

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Redskins -8.5

Jay Gruden invoked football's notorious A Play Here and A Play There fallacy early in the week. "When you go back and you look at what's going on, being 3-6, you look at the six losses and there's a play here and a play there, and we're just so close to being 7-2 as opposed to being 3-6," he said (via The Washington Post).

The A Play Here and A Play There fallacy is technically a form of "special pleading," a rhetorical device that asks for a one-time exception to a specific rule (the win-loss record as a true indicator of quality) without giving justification or universalizing the exception. (Why do the Redskins get these here-and-there plays back, but not the Cowboys or Titans teams they narrowly beat?)

Even without applying formal logic, most folks know that citing A Play Here and A Play There ranks alongside Everyone Else was Speeding Too, Officer as excuses that are better thought than said. Few professional football players are likely to buy the reasoning, and you probably don't want many of the ones who do on your team. 

So in honor of Gruden's specious reasoning, I proudly present the 7-2 Buccaneers:

Week 1: Bobby Rainey does not fumble in his own territory with 1:36 to play. With two timeouts left, the Buccaneers drive the length of the field for a 21-17 win over Panthers.

Week 2: Austin Pettis never catches a 27 yard pass on 3rd-and-9 to set up a go-ahead Rams field goal late in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers win 17-16.

Week 5: The bad snap from the 10-yard line that set up a Saints safety never happens. The Buccaneers burn some clock, then punt the ball away in the fourth quarter with a five-point lead. Instead of a Saints field goal and overtime, the Bucs make one defensive stop for a 31-26 win.

Week 8: The Vikings fail to get a first down on one (any one) of their 2nd-and-10s during the final drive of regulation. The Bucs win 13-10.

Week 9: The Bucs don't get a chip shot field goal blocked. They also jump offsides when the Browns face 4th-and-4 and are about to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown. Buccaneers 20, Browns 18.

Week 10: First, Julio Jones doesn't convert on 3rd-and-10 in the fourth quarter with the Bucs clinging to a 17-16 lead. Then, Michael Koenen stops squib kicking and pooch punting due to Devin Hester terror, so the Falcons don't start every drive at their own 40-yard line. Presto! Bucs win 17-13, or something,

Not convinced? Well, it's no cinch crafting seven wins out of the Redskins' schedule either. With a little alternate universe imagining, we can probably get the Jets to 8-2 too. And that's reason enough to not even try.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Redskins 21

Broncos at Rams

Sunday, 1 p.m. 

Line: Broncos -10

Week Two of the Broncos' post-Foxboro cool down may provide us with another chance to see Brock Osweiler do more than twiddle his thumbs on the sideline like the Maytag repairman. While Peyton Manning and John Fox give Osweiler the over-controlling parent routine in the fourth quarters of blowouts (no, that's not how you build with Legos, son; let me finish this X-wing fighter so it doesn't look so stupid that other kids laugh at you), Osweiler may be wondering why Tom Brady's backups get so many opportunities to seek fame and fortune elsewhere. Browns-Texans is a Brady Backup Brawl, for heaven's sake, but Peyton Manning's backups wither and blow away faster than you can say "Jim Sorgi."

The Patriots are coach and executive suppliers to every down-and-out franchise that deludes itself into thinking a job applicant with Foxboro stationary is a guaranteed Belichick-Brady Starter Kit. These coaches and execs bring Brady backups with them, creating a preferential hiring system for Ryan Mallet types. The former Colts and Broncos coaches and executives sprinkled around the league (in San Diego, for example) don't bill themselves as Patriots clones, and therefore don't try to replicate the success of the mothership on a smaller level the way the Belichick pods do. Osweiler would spend just as much time fiddling with his helmet straps behind Philip Rivers as he does behind Manning, anyway.

The Rams could use a quarterback now that the Austin Davis comparisons have gone from Next Kurt Warner to Next Mark Bulger to Next Keith Null. Veteran Shaun Hill returns to the lineup on Sunday. Alas, the trade deadline has passed, and the Rams have no illusions of becoming the Baby Mannings of Los Angeles (Whoops...St. Louis), anyway. Osweiler may watch Hill try to move the ball and realize that he has it pretty good as a Manning backup. Heaven knows he has plenty of time on his hands.

Prediction: Broncos 34, Rams 20

Raiders at Chargers 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. 

Line: Chargers -11.5

Remember the Chargers? They were a viral sensation in early October. They beat the Seahawks when we all thought they were invulnerable, then went on a five-game winning streak that had us talking about Philip Rivers for MVP and Mike McCoy for Coach of the Millennium. Then they lost three straight games and disappeared. It was like the Harlem Shake, only with more Danny Woodhead.

The Chargers are back, and much of the original cast has returned from the injuries that led to a pre-bye week 37-0 bottom-out against the Dolphins. Running back Ryan Mathews and linebacker Jerry Attaochu should return Sunday. Defenders Manti Te'o and Melvin Ingram should be back before the Ravens-Patriots-Broncos-49ers gauntlet that begins in three weeks. 

Yes, we are looking past the Raiders, who played a great first quarter against the Broncos last week, a great third quarter against the Seahawks two weeks ago and a great second quarter against the Browns three weeks ago. The Raiders are due for a great fourth quarter and will make something of themselves when they get the other 75 percent of football figured out. For now, they only serve as proof that while fads come and go, mediocrity is eternal.

Prediction: Chargers 26, Raiders 13

Steelers at Titans

Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Steelers -7

Your viewing schedule:

8:30 p.m.: Tune in to Monday Night Mettenberger.

8:40 p.m.: First Titans offensive series leaves you in a catatonic state.

8:43 p.m.: Wife revives you with smelling salts.

8:45 p.m.: In keeping with their habit of playing down to their worst opponents, the Steelers dig a five-foot trench at the start of every scrimmage play and attempt to drive their way out of the trench.

8:48 p.m.: Second Titans offensive series leaves you in a semi-comatose state.

8:50 p.m.: Wife defibrillates you. 

8:52 p.m.: Switch over to the last eight minutes of Gotham. Oh yeah, this series is a prequel. The little kid grows up to be Batman, Zach Mettenberger grows up to be Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley becomes the Mad Hatter.

9 p.m.: Return to football game. LeGarrette Blount runs off tackle and slams face-first into the wall of the trench.

9:08 p.m.: During his 10th attempt to compare Mettenberger to Roethlisberger, Jon Gruden blows a circuit in his already glitchy operating system, and what starts as an Uma-Oprah situation becomes a verbal meatloaf of "Mettenberger-Roethlisberger, Roethlisberger-Mettenberger, Mettenroethlis Roethlismetten burger burger burger burgerburgerburger Burger BURGER BURGERBURGER."

9:14 p.m.: Blount is losing a shouting match to a clump of dirt. ESPN engineers have taken a screwdriver to the panel in the back of Gruden's skull. On next week's Gotham, we meet a guest star who grows up to write believable, well-rounded female characters for superhero shows, but he gets killed before the first commercial break. Steelers-Titans still a scoreless tie.

9:18 p.m.: An inside run by Bishop Sankey for no gain on 2nd-and-20 leaves you in a state of suspended animation, like an astronaut traveling to Pluto.

9:19 p.m.: Wife throws a blanket over you and switches on Sleepy Hollow. You dream of Ken Whisenhunt as Ichabod Crane.

Prediction: Steelers 19, Titans 16

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.