NFL Picks and Predictions Week 10: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosNov 8, 2014

Last week was a strong one for your boy, the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate (T-shirts coming soon, I think!).

I managed to put up a 9-4 week against the spread and even went 3-2 in the Hilton SuperContest, where I'm sponsored by the fine folks at OddsShark. The proceedings catapulted me to a season-high 14 games over .500 ATS.

Of course, I couldn't handle prosperity, losing with the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night. But the good news is that there are still 12 NFL games to wager on this weekend. The prospect warms my soul like an enormous shot of Jack Daniel's.

It's time, peeps. It's time to make that money, yo.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 10.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Total Season ATS: 73-60-3 (including Cincinnati on Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 21-24

Thursday Night Football: Cleveland at Cincinnati

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AJ Mast/Associated Press

Final Score: Cleveland 24, Cincinnati 3 (Cleveland covers +6)

I admit it. I was wrong about Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer. Dead wrong.

In the offseason, I told anyone with functional ears that would listen that Johnny Manziel was the man to lead the Browns—both in 2014 and beyond.

Yeah. I was wrong.

Hoyer has been simply incredible in leading the Browns to a 6-3 record, and hearing the Browns fans in Cincinnati chant his name after Thursday night's win was amazing. He's earned the opportunity to lead this team for the remainder of the year.

As for the Bengals and Andy Dalton...well, I was wrong about them too. Wrong to think that Dalton would play well in a big spot like this. Wrong to believe that Dalton would look like a functional NFL quarterback. Wrong to expect Marvin Lewis' team to show up and play well on national television.

From now on, I'm adopting this rule: Never wager on Dalton and the Bengals in a big spot. I have a feeling my wallet will be happier for it.

Tennessee at Baltimore

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Don Wright/Associated Press

The Line: Tennessee at Baltimore (-9.5)

As I've detailed in previous columns, one of my favorite exercises is flipping lines based on the home team and then seeing how much I like a particular team at the new number.

In this instance, the Baltimore Ravens would be -3.5 on the road in Tennessee. And is there any way you'd pick the Tennessee Titans to cover that number?

Plain and simple: The Ravens are the better team, and it isn't particularly close. I understand that the Titans are coming off their bye and that the Ravens are banged up (particularly with the season-ending injury suffered by cornerback Jimmy Smith), but there's just no way the Titans can be the pick.

Do you really want to plop down your hard-earned money on Zach Mettenberger on the road against the Ravens defense? The dude's eyes are going to be as wide as dinner plates when he sees Terrell Suggs coming around the edge for him.

The Ravens will claim this one by double digits.

The Pick: Baltimore (-9.5)

Kansas City at Buffalo

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Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The Line: Kansas City at Buffalo (+2)

As regular readers of this column know, I have a weekly ritual: After each Sunday night game, I sit down and project the spreads for the upcoming week and then compare my findings with what Vegas has set.

I had initially tabbed the Buffalo Bills -2 in this game, so I was quite surprised to see that the Kansas City Chiefs were favored on the road.

I fully acknowledge that this could be Vegas' way of making sure money comes in on the Bills, but I don't care. I know the Chiefs have played very well over the past few weeks, but I don't care. These two teams are close, and when that's the case and the home team is the underdog, homie, you gotta roll with it.

Expect a big game from Bills star rookie receiver Sammy Watkins and a last-second field goal by Dan Carpenter to win it for Buffalo.

The Pick: Buffalo (+2)

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Miami at Detroit

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Matt Dunham/Associated Press

The Line: Miami at Detroit (-2.5)

Do you see the man in the above picture? Do you recognize him?

Homie, I wouldn't hate on you if you didn't, because it feels like forever since he's been on the field.

That's Calvin Johnson—aka Megatron—and he's finally ready to suit back up for the Detroit Lions when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

And yeah, that is bad news for Miami.

On paper, this is a close game. If it were played in Miami, I'd take the Dolphins. But since the Lions are home and Johnson is returning, I gotta roll with Detroit.

I thoroughly expect Dolphins coach Joe Philbin and Lions coach Jim Caldwell to take turns trying to give the game away to each other, only for the Lions to pull it out in the end. The fact that the spread is under three points gives me even more confidence.

Take the home team and thank me on Monday morning.

The Pick: Detroit (-2.5)

Dallas at Jacksonville (in London)

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Brandon Wade/Associated Press

The Line: Dallas at Jacksonville (+6.5)

In the interest of full disclosure: I have no clue what the hell is going to happen in this game.

Think about it: Would you be surprised if Tony Romo started for the Dallas Cowboys and they won by double-digits? Of course you wouldn't be. After all, the Cowboys are the better team with the better quarterback.

But would you be surprised if the Jacksonville Jaguars knocked Romo out of the game and Brandon Weeden came in for Dallas and yakked the game away, leading to either a Jacksonville cover or outright victory? Because I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest.

I'll take the Cowboys because I think their offensive line will control the game, but I could see anything happening.

That's why I don't recommend any #TeamDegenerate members plop down their hard-earned cash on this London slopfest.

The Pick: Dallas -6.5

San Francisco at New Orleans

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Tony Avelar/Associated Press

The Line: San Francisco at New Orleans (-5.5)

This season, the San Francisco 49ers have proved to be a maddening team. Watching them eschew their excellent run game in favor of unlimited Colin Kaepernick pass attempts is like seeing a super-hot girl with a basic dude. It doesn't just doesn't compute.

Last Sunday, I was watching games with my buddies—who, of course, are card-carrying members of #TeamDegenerate—and one of them had placed a rather large wager on the 49ers to win outright. With the 49ers trailing by three in the closing moments, they matriculated the ball to the Rams goal line, and the room started to buzz with anticipation. My buddy was loving life. It was about to be the ultimate gambling victory: one that comes at the last moment.

And then Kaepernick fumbled away both the ball and my friend's rent money. Maddening, I tell you.

At 4-4, the 49ers run the risk of not making the postseason. It's no exaggeration to call Sunday's tilt in New Orleans a must-win game. The problem with that is that the Saints lose at home about as often as Haley's Comet comes around.

New Orleans is surging and looks poised to win the NFC South. I like the Saints to win this game.

But even though they've driven me nuts this year, I still have a ton of respect for Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers, and I believe they'll find a way to finish inside the number.

And no, none of my friends will be playing the 49ers on the moneyline this week. Lesson learned.

The Pick: San Francisco (+5.5)

Pittsburgh at NY Jets

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Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

The Line: Pittsburgh at NY Jets (+5)

At 6-3 and winners of three in a row, the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a major roll. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for six touchdown passes in back-to-back games, becoming the first passer in league history to accomplish that incredible feat.

At 1-8 and losers of eight in a row, the New York Jets are reeling. Quarterback Michael Vick replaced the ineffective Geno Smith in the starting lineup, which is the NFL equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

As a result, everyone and their mother likes the Steelers to blow out the Jets at MetLife Stadium.

I repeat: Everyone and their mother likes the Steelers to blow out the Jets at MetLife Stadium.

'Nuff said.

The Pick: NY Jets (+5)

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

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Tony Dejak/Associated Press

The Line: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2)

This game actually fulfills not one, but two of my favorite gambling axioms:

1) When two bad teams play and the line is a pick 'em or the home team is an underdog, bang the home squad.

2) When everyone and their mother like one side (in this case, the Atlanta Falcons), go the other way.

I don't make the rules, peeps. I just follow them, yo.

The Pick: Tampa Bay +2

Denver at Oakland

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Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The Line: Denver at Oakland (+11.5)

Oh my GOD, I can barely contain my desire to bet on the Denver Broncos here.

(Voice inside my head: It's too many points for a home underdog, and you know it!)

I know, I know. But the Oakland Raiders are so bad. So bad. 0-16 bad. The kind of bad you tell your grandchildren about while pinching your nostrils.

(Voice inside my head: If the line were switched, the Broncos would be -17.5 at home. There's no way you'd lay 17.5 points in any NFL game and you know it!)

I know, I know. But...Peyton Manning! And Demaryius Thomas! And Julius Thomas! How could this game possibly be close?

(Voice inside my head: Oh, get off it, Kostos. You're taking the points and you know it!)

Damn it. Damn it all.

The Pick: Oakland (+11.5)

St. Louis at Arizona

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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

The Line: St. Louis at Arizona (-7)

Believe it or not, but this game is the toughest to pick with the points.

The Cardinals are humming at 7-1, but the Rams always play teams tough inside the division—as evidenced by last week's road win in San Francisco.

But there's just a feel with this Cardinals team. Carson Palmer is spreading the ball around and not making the critical error, and the defense has been fantastic. Pencil in defensive coordinator Todd Bowles for a head coaching position in 2015.

While I admire the pluckiness of coach Jeff Fisher's Rams, they just don't have the horses to stand toe-to-toe with the Cardinals--especially on the road in the desert.

The Rams will keep it competitive, but Arizona will pull away late to win and cover the number.

The Pick: Arizona (-7)

NY Giants at Seattle

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Tom Gannam/Associated Press

The Line: NY Giants at Seattle (-9.5)

On paper, this one screams that the New York Giants should find a way to cover the spread.

Big Blue is coming off a humiliating Monday night home defeat to the Indianapolis Colts, and the only way they could have played worse is if Curtis Painter had started at quarterback. The public's confidence in Eli Manning and Co. has to be at an all-time low.

Conversely, the Seattle Seahawks have won two consecutive games to pull to 5-3 and will be playing in front of their rabid fans. The Legion of Boom secondary should feast on Manning and the Giants.

Whenever something is this obvious, it's best to go the other way.

But the problem is this: I watch the games. I know how brutal the Giants offense has been. I know that it'll fold under pressure.

This game is going to be a bloodbath. The Seahawks will score at least one defensive touchdown, and the over/under for Giants false starts is 5.5.

Take the over on that one.

The Pick: Seattle (-9.5)

Sunday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay

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Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Line: Chicago at Green Bay (-7)

There are a few guarantees in life: death, taxes and Aaron Rodgers beating the Chicago Bears like a drum.

Do I need to mention that Rodgers is 10-3 in his career against the Bears or that he's 7-1 in head-to-head matchups with Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler?

Should I bring up the fact that Rodgers has thrown 25 career touchdown passes and only eight interceptions against the Bears? Or the fact that Rodgers knocked the Bears out of the playoffs in Week 17 last year on this play (avert thine eyes, Bears fans)?

What about the fact that Rodgers tossed four touchdown passes in a Week 4 victory in Chicago? Or that the Bears defense gets shredded worse than papers during the Enron scandal?

Every Sunday night, I sit down and guess the spreads for the upcoming week. I initially wrote in "Green Bay Packers -9.5" for this game. And I get them at -7.0, given everything I listed above?

Sign me up, homie.

The Pick: Green Bay (-7)

Monday Night Football: Carolina at Philadelphia

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Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Line: Carolina at Philadelphia (-6)

Out of all the inexplicable things that occur over the course of an NFL season—and there are too many to count—my personal favorite thus far is the public backing of new Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Mark Sanchez, as if he's the lovechild of Ron Jaworski and Randall Cunningham.

I understand that Sanchez played well last week in relief of an injured Nick Foles, but people, we're talking about MARK SANCHEZ here. The living, breathing turnover machine. Mr. Butt Fumble himself. This is the guy you're willing to wager your hard-earned money on?

You can call it a New York bias if you want (for the record, I've never once rooted for the Jets—unless I wagered on them), but I've been watching football my entire life and I have a hard time believing that Mark freakin' Sanchez is the answer for any team at quarterback.

The Eagles are the better team and I expect them to win, but Carolina will be fired up after its disastrous performance last Thursday night against the Saints, and Sanchez will make enough stomach-turning mistakes to swing the number in the Panthers' favor.

The Pick: Carolina (+6)