Ranking the NFL's Top 50 Players at the Midseason Mark
Unbelievably, and distressingly, the 2014 NFL season is more than halfway over.
Every team has played at least half of its games; every player has had at least half a year to make his mark. We're halfway to the playoffs, halfway to postseason awards and halfway to the thrilling end of division title and wild-card races.
The trade deadline has passed, and Pro Bowl voting is already open.
We know the perennial stars of the league, and we know all the big names. But before we cast our ballots, let's cast out our preconceptions. Regardless of team, position or reputation, who are the 50 best players at the 2014 season's halfway mark?
Not who has the biggest career numbers; that's easily looked up at Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Not who possesses the the most impressive tools—the B/R 1000 project has you covered there.
With a combination of official stats, advanced metrics, subjective grades and the good, old-fashioned eyeball test, here are the top 50 players through the first eight weeks of the NFL.
Disclaimers, Provisos, Exceptions, etc.:
For official stats and standings, Pro-Football-Reference.com was the primary source.
For advanced statistics and subjective grades, Pro Football Focus numbers were used. Pro Football Focus data is subscriber-only; paid links are noted as such.
For composite metrics, Football Outsiders' DYAR was used, as well as AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com's WPA and EPA.
Not all of these stats and rankings are available for every position category, and some of them define positions differently. As noted in some circumstances, per-position rankings had to be massaged to reflect how sites categorize positional 'tweeners.
Note: These rankings, and nearly all associated stats and records, were compiled before the Week 9 games. All are current through at least Week 8.
The Disqualified Worthy
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There's little real debate that Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the best wideout on the planet, but injuries have robbed him of both playing time and production. Same goes for Seattle Seahawks left tackle Russell Okung, and to a lesser extent, Cincinnati Bengals receiver A.J. Green.
San Francisco 49ers inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman's had his entire season wiped out so far, with no return planned any time soon. Baltimore Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta and Cleveland Browns center Alex Mack might be on here, if they weren't already on injured reserve.
Suspensions have taken away at least the first half of the season for superstars like Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Carolina Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy, Cleveland Browns wideout Josh Gordon and San Francisco 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith.
Remember, this is ranking of the best players of 2014—so perennial studs who've spent much of the season in street clothes, or greatly diminished, aren't making the cut.
No. 50: Tony Romo
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Who: Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 7 in NFL PER, No. 5 in ESPN TQBR, No. 10 in FO DYAR, No. 6 in AVA WPA, No. 8 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Before a disastrous Monday Night Football outing that showcased a subpar performance, a painful injury, an ill-advised return to the field and a shocking upset loss, Tony Romo was having a great season.
Most of his key rate stats (completion rate, touchdown rate, average yards-per-attempt, NFL passer efficiency rating) are on pace to be career bests, or second-bests. Perhaps not coincidentally, he's on pace for by far his lowest full-season total number of pass attempts (484).
Thanks to the emergence of tailback DeMarco Murray as the NFL's most dangerous, most productive runner, Romo's had far less pressure on his shoulders. Having an offensive line that can both protect him and open holes has helped Romo lead the Cowboys on a tremendous six-game run.
Bookended by a tough season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers and that brutal stumble against Washington, the Cowboys need Romo back ASAP.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Washington loss didn't sting too badly, but the disastrous Week 9 performance of backup Brandon Weeden sure did. Now a half-game behind the Philadelphia Eagles, their back-half slate includes a tough matchup with the Indianapolis Colts—not to mention four division games in their last six weeks.
The Cowboys will be relying heavily on Romo's health, and Murray's new-found durability, throughout that stretch.
No. 49: Harrison Smith
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Who: Safety, Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
By the Numbers: No. 3 in interceptions, No. 19 in solo tackles, No. 2 in passes defensed, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 13 in AVA +WPA, No. 1 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: The Vikings' 2012 first-round pick has come into his own this season, helping anchor a secondary that desperately needed an anchor.
"Dirty Harry" has been making plays all over the field for Minnesota, backstopping a defense widely tipped to play better than the sum of their parts in 2014. Through eight weeks, it's been the case. They've allowed just 21.6 points per game, 12th-best in the NFL.
Smith's big plays in coverage have stopped the bleeding in the back of the Minnesota secondary, and he's graded out positively against the run, per Pro Football Focus.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Though the Chicago Bears were rightly tipped as a contender in the NFC and the Vikings were largely written off, Minnesota is a half-game ahead of Chicago and just 1.5 games behind the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.
If the Detroit Lions have another second-half swoon, the jelling young Vikings could play spoiler down the stretch—or even enter the playoff bubble picture come December.
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No. 48: Terrell Suggs
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Who: Outside linebacker, Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
By the Numbers: No. 12 in sacks, No. 40 in solo tackles, No. 3 in PFF Overall
Story So Far: Terrell Suggs is essentially representing the entire Ravens linebacking corps. He, rookie C.J. Mosley, Pernell McPhee and rotational pass-rush specialist Elvis Dumervil are all having excellent seasons. Suggs, once a pass-rush specialist himself, has rounded out his game quite nicely.
With 3.5 official sacks, 10 hits and 13 hurries charted by Pro Football Focus, Suggs is still a pass-rusher to be reckoned with—but his plus-7.0 run-stopping grade is second-best among 3-4 outside linebackers.
He was never a blanket coverage guy, and at age 32 that's no different, but the six-time Pro Bowler and former First Team All-Pro is still having an excellent season.
Stretch-Run Outlook: As a key cog in the Ravens defensive machine, Suggs is one of the few players left from the glorious mid-2000s teams. They'll need his leadership—and his production—if they're going to win the incredibly competitive AFC North, let alone challenge for a title in the packed AFC.
No. 47: Travis Kelce
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Who: Tight end, Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 12 in receptions, No. 11 in yards, No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 4 in FO DYAR, No. 2 in AVA WPA, No. 3 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Travis Kelce isn't among the top tight ends in traditional statistics, but Chiefs fans know what a revelation he's been on the field.
The 2013 third-rounder didn't see the field last year, but his 6'5", 260-pound frame has stood tall in the Chiefs' biggest moments of 2014. He's No. 2 in tight ends in Win Probability Added because he keeps making huge catches at crucial times.
Kelce has developed into the big, athletic pair of hands quarterback Alex Smith has desperately needed—and at age 25, has plenty of room left to grow.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After a slow start, the Chiefs have turned it on of late, putting them right in the thick of the three-team chase for the AFC West crown. If the incredible defense keeps up its pace, Kelce and the offense only need to be a little bit better for Kansas City to be one of the best teams in the NFL.
The Chiefs still have to face the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, as well as play rematches against the two AFC West teams they're battling with, the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers. Yet with both Oakland Raiders games still on the docket, Kelce and Co. should have no trouble staying above .500.
No. 46: Dez Bryant
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Who: Wide receiver, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 6 in receptions, No. 11 in receiving yards, No. 9 in PFF Overall, No. 22 in AVA WPA, No. 25 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Dez Bryant is having an awfully quiet great year. It's not like he's forgotten how to play football; he still possesses a rare combination of size, speed, physicality and verticality. And his numbers aren't exactly down, either; through eight weeks, he was on pace for a very typical 96 catches for 1,240 yards and 10 touchdowns.
For once, though, Bryant isn't the story—and neither is fan dissatisfaction with his quarterback, Tony Romo.
Tailback DeMarco Murray is rightfully getting all of the headlines in Dallas. Yet, Romo's on track to throw Bryant his second-highest number of targets ever, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. If the mercurial Bryant can quietly turn in one of the best years of his career, and one of the best 2014 seasons of any wideout, all's the better for the playoff-starved Cowboys.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Cowboys have hit a speed bump after getting off to the NFC's fastest start. Right in the thick of the NFC East playoff hunt, though, Bryant and the Cowboys are going to be a very tough out.
No. 45: Le'Veon Bell
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Who: Tailback, Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 3 in rushing yards, No. 7 in Yds/Att, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 9 in FO DYAR, No. 1 in AVA WPA, No. 1 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: It's hard to remember a more dramatic NFL transformation. The knock on Le'Veon Bell was right in Bleacher Report Analyst Ryan Lownes' scouting report: "Lacks breakaway speed," and "average acceleration and burst" were apt descriptors for Bell his rookie season, when he plodded to an injury-hampered 3.5 yards per carry, per Pro-Football-Reference.
After cutting down to his high school weight, per Jeff Hartman of Behind The Steel Curtain, Bell doesn't just look like a completely different back—he runs like one, too. He has explosion and burst to spare, without losing the workhorse reliability he was known for at Michigan State.
Now averaging a robust 4.9 yards per carry, Bell has become a catalyst for the entire Steelers offense. Thanks to his reliable hands and newfound second-level game, Bell is on pace for a whopping 84 receptions on 100 targets, second-best among NFL tailbacks (to the Chicago Bears' Matt Forte, on pace for a record-crushing 116 receptions).
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Steelers might be the NFL's most misunderstood offense, with weeks of incredible output and weeks of not much at all. Stuck in the NFL's tightest division, where the cellar-dwelling Cleveland Browns are above .500, they'll be going all-out down the stretch.
Two back-half games against the Cincinnati Bengals will go a long way toward determining their postseason fate.
No. 44: Ryan Kerrigan
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Who: Outside linebacker, Washington (3-6)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in sacks, No. 10 in solo tackles, No. 8 in PFF Overall, No. 12 in AVA +WPA, No. 10 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Given how little attention any non-quarterback gets in the District, it's easy to forgive football fans for overlooking some of the very talented players wearing burgundy and gold this year.
But Ryan Kerrigan?
Through eight games, he'd racked up a whopping 7.5 official sacks, and added 26 solo tackles to boot. Add in his excellent coverage (of Pro Football Focus' top 20 outside linebackers, Kerrigan had the highest coverage grade through eight weeks), and you have a spectacular all-around player who deserves to be mentioned with the NFL's best.
Hence, his inclusion.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Things look very dim again in Washington. It appears as though Kerrigan' is going to face another second-half season of playing out the string and waiting for next year. That said, if he can keep his own fire burning, he should contend for plenty of individual honors.
No. 43: Lavonte David
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Who: Outside linebacker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
By the Numbers: Zero sacks, No. 1 in solo tackles, No. 11 in PFF Overall, No. 3 in AVA +WPA, No. 2 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Lavonte David was one of the very best stories of 2013. A second-day draft pick in his second season, on a terrible 4-12 team, playing his brains out and earning a First Team All-Pro selection.
Associated Press All-Pro voters don't christen people the best in the NFL at their position for no reason, and David is still clearly every bit as good as he was in 2013. Whether, though, it's the different responsibilities he has in new head coach Lovie Smith's defense, the failure of his back-seven teammates to play up to his level or just a case of natural regression, David hasn't been quite as jaw-droppingly spectacular in 2014.
He's still making tons of big plays in space, and adding plus-1.26 win probability on a team that only has one win in eight games is almost impossibly hard.
Stretch-Run Outlook: It's going to get worse before it gets better for the Bucs. David should focus on improving his craft and staying healthy for the rest of the season—and Tampa Bay should focus on getting more players around him.
No. 42: Rolando McClain
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Who: Inside linebacker, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: One sack, No. 24 in solo tackles, No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 23 in AVA +WPA, No. 17 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Rolando McClain's journey through the NFL already involves a release, a free-agent signing, a trade and a retirement.
Even so, the No. 8 overall pick of the 2010 draft is playing all the way up to his massive potential. Coming out of Alabama, the 6'4", 259-pound inside linebacker looked like a classic thumper—except blessed with a breathtaking combination of size and athleticism.
Now, it's McClain's coverage ability that's making him so good in the Cowboys' modern Tampa 2.
Besides his natural ability to flow to the ball and make tackles, McClain has earned Pro Football Focus' second-highest coverage grade (subscription required) for an inside linebacker.
That's crucial in the Tampa 2, where inside linebackers have deep-middle coverage responsibilities, like a shallow safety.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Cowboys are in the NFC East driver's seat, but they play four division games in their last six. With fellow surprise linebacker Justin Durant freshly placed on injured reserve, there'll be even more pressure on McClain during the Cowboys' brutal stretch run. McClain hurt his right knee late in Dallas' Week 9 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but the club doesn't believe the injury is serious, per Brandon George of The Dallas Morning News.
No. 41: Justin Smith
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Who: Defensive end, San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
By the Numbers: No. 16 in sacks, No. 18 in solo tackles, No. 7 in PFF Overall
Story So Far: The emergence of J.J. Watt, and an unreported shoulder injury in 2013, caused many football-watchers to forget about Justin Smith.
He was Watt, a 3-4 end with unconventional athleticism and pass-rush ability, before Watt. He was a nigh-unblockable force who not only commanded massive respect from opposing offenses, he set the table for the fiendish 49ers linebacking corps behind him.
In 2014, the 35-year-old Smith has bounced nearly all the way back into form. With three official sacks, he's in line with his career average, and just off of the pace he set in 2011, when he was named First Team All-Pro.
More importantly, he's currently the second-best 3-4 run stopper Pro Football Focus has graded, and he's been a much-needed stabilizing force on a 49ers front seven decimated by injury.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The 49ers needed Smith at his absolute best in the first half of the season, and he nearly delivered. As players like linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith return, they'll take pressure off Smith—and he could be even better down the stretch.
No. 40: Philip Rivers
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Who: Quarterback, San Diego Chargers (5-4)
By the Numbers: No. 3 in NFL PER, No. 2 in ESPN TQBR, No. 2 in FO DYAR, No. 4 in AVA WPA, No. 2 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Philip Rivers' career has been a tantalizing one, consistently on the cusp of greatness, but never consistent and rarely great. Since head coach Mike McCoy took over in 2013, though, the Chargers signal-caller has fulfilled all of his considerable potential—and, arguably, then some.
At age 32, Rivers' unconventional throwing motion hasn't improved with age. A Twitter search for "Philip Rivers shotput" returns a treasure trove of armchair quarterbacks having a laugh at his expense.
He's been leaving opposing defenses in tears, though, on pace for career bests in touchdown rate (7.8 percent) and interception rate (1.8 percent), per Pro-Football-Reference.com. All the while, he's averaging over eight yards gained per pass attempt, in line with his best seasons.
After falling just short in a Week 1 slugfest with the Arizona Cardinals, the Chargers went on a five-game tear. Now, they've dropped two straight divisional games, along with a 37-0 blanking at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, and are a game-and-a-half behind the Denver Broncos.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Chargers, good as they are, were always going to be looking up at the Broncos in the AFC West title chase.
Unlike 2013, though, the AFC wild-card race is going to be insanely competitive. After their Week 10 bye, they have two games against the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams; Rivers will have to steer them to wins in both to keep San Diego in playoff contention.
After that respite, the Chargers face the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Broncos, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs to close out the season—and even a wild-card berth could be a big ask.
No. 39: Zack Martin
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Who: Right guard, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 3 in PFF Pass Block, No. 9 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Zack Martin is the latest in a growing line of excellent young Cowboys offensive linemen. The first-round rookie has plugged right in and immediately made an impact, leading the way for tailback DeMarco Murray's incredible season and keeping interior rushers away from his quarterbacks.
Through eight games, Pro Football Focus hadn't charted Martin with allowing a single sack. With fast, athletic feet and a powerful, barrel-chested upper body, Martin has the potential to keep getting better.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Despite Martin's interior protection, starting quarterback Tony Romo has now missed all or part of two straight games—and the Cowboys are 0-2 in that stretch.
Once Romo returns to the lineup, if the Cowboys are going to win the NFC East, the offensive line's going to have to do an even better job of keeping him clean.
No. 38: Antonio Gates
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Who: Tight end, San Diego Chargers (5-4)
By the Numbers: No. 9 in receptions, No. 6 in receiving yards, No. 20 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in FO DYAR, No. 2 in AVA WPA, No. 2 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: He's old (34). He doesn't block well (55th out of 62 in run-blocking, per Pro Football Focus). The eyeball test says he's a little bigger and at least a little slower than he used to be. There's no question, though, that Antonio Gates has been crucial to the Chargers' success in 2014.
It's not just the nine touchdowns—second behind Julius Thomas among tight ends, per Pro-Football-Reference.com—it's the way he manages to get open and make great catches exactly when the Chargers need him most.
That's why he shines in advanced metrics like DYAR, WPA and EPA, even relatively to his great production: He produces when it counts, and wins San Diego games.
Stretch-Run Outlook: There's no sugarcoating it: The Chargers have a rough run to the end of the season, and the AFC suddenly looks like an incredibly tough conference. If quarterback Philip Rivers keeps playing like he's playing, though, 2014 will still be one of Gates' better seasons—and that's saying something.
No. 37: Matt Forte
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Who: Tailback, Chicago Bears (3-5)
By the Numbers: No. 5 in rushing yards, No. 20 in Yds/Att, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 7 in FO DYAR, No. 11 in AVA WPA, No. 2 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Matt Forte's Bears started the season as a presumptive contender, stocked with game-changing talent at every offensive position. If quarterback Jay Cutler could play a little bit closer to his best than his worst, the thinking went, and the defense could be at all improved from their 30th-ranked scoring effort last season, the Bears would be a force to be reckoned with.
After fantastically spoiling the San Francisco 49ers' inauguration of Levi's Stadium in Week 2, the Bears have slowly descended into mediocrity—but it isn't Forte's fault.
Not only is he on pace for 1,124 rushing yards, he's set to demolish the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tailback. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, Forte's pace of 116 catches would match Larry Centers' 1995 record of 101 catches after Forte has played only 14 games.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After their Week 9 bye, the Bears tour the old NFC Central: at the Green Bay Packers, host the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then at the Detroit Lions. After that, if their divisional fate isn't already sealed, they play the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys before taking on the Lions and Vikings again.
The pessimist says that if the Bears don't find a way to get back in top form, their season—and Forte's quest for individual honors—faces a quick doom. Optimists, and Bears fans, would say the have full control over how this season ends.
If it's going to be a happy ending, the Bears will have to keep feeding Forte.
No. 36: Dan Bailey
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Who: Placekicker, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 6 in FG percentage, No. 2 in PFF Overall
Story So Far: Technically, Dan Bailey hasn't been the most accurate kicker in the NFL this season. Statistically, he hasn't been the kicker most called-upon. However, there's something special about the way Bailey's been playing this year that makes him the best overall placekicker in the game.
Having nailed 16-of-18 field-goal attempts, including 4-of-5 from 50-plus yards, is good enough. Only Phil Dawson of the San Francisco 49ers has been asked to kick more long field goals and been as accurate, but he's missed two shorter kicks.
It's more than that that makes Bailey great. It's the feeling everyone in the stadium gets when, say, Bailey comes on to kick an overtime 49-yarder against Houston. You know it's not only going in, it's going right down the middle with plenty of leg to spare.
Oh, and he's great on kickoffs, too. He's tied for the third-best Pro Football Focus Kickoff grade among full-time placekickers.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Bailey is in a great groove this year, and the Cowboys are having a great season. Regardless of whether Tony Romo returns, Bailey should get plenty of opportunities to tack on to his great numbers this season.
No. 35: Martellus Bennett
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Who: Tight end, Chicago Bears (3-5)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in receptions, No. 4 in receiving yards, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 7 in FO DYAR
Story So Far: Not much is going right with the Chicago Bears right now, but Martellus Bennett has been a consistent bright spot all season. With 47 receptions on 64 targets, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, he's served as a crutch for quarterback Jay Cutler during his wobbly 2014 season.
Per Pro Football Focus, Bennett's not just an athletic pass-catcher, he's a capable and willing blocker. He's also been flagged for just one penalty in 480 snaps, second-best among tight ends.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Bears have as much offensive talent as anyone in the NFL, but the wheels have been falling off. Unfortunately, the schedule won't be much help: The Bears have a run of three divisional games in four, then face the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints before two more divisional games to close out the season.
If Cutler can get it turned around, though, Bennett's likely to remain one of his favorite targets, in and out of the red zone.
No. 34: Karlos Dansby
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Who: Inside linebacker, Cleveland Browns (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in sacks, No. 21 in solo tackles, No. 3 in PFF Overall, No. 13 in AVA +WPA, No. 22 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Karlos Dansby, after a fountain-of-youth performance with the Arizona Cardinals in 2013, replaced departed longtime Browns middle linebacker D'Qwell Jackson in the spring. Dansby has more or less picked up right where he left off, holding down coverage in the middle of the field and stuffing run lanes with equal aplomb.
Like the true inside linebacker he is (and 33-year-old) he is, Dansby isn't outstanding when rushing the passer, but he's been a stabilizing force in the middle of the injury-ravaged Browns defense.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Browns, to the surprise of just about everyone, are playing winning football at the halfway mark. Dansby has quietly been a big part of that from a defensive perspective. As the outside linebackers begin to make up for the injuries on the defensive line (and/or players on the defensive line begin to heal), there's room for him to improve.
That said, the Browns have no margin for error down the stretch. Even at 5-3, they're in the cellar of the AFC North, the most competitive division in football. Dansby and the defense have to improve if they're going to help the offense claw into playoff contention.
No. 33: Arian Foster
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Who: Tailback, Houston Texans (4-5)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in rushing yards, No. 3 in Yds/Att, No. 6 in PFF Overall, No. 2 in FO DYAR
Story So Far: Arian Foster, like Dallas Cowboys tailback DeMarco Murray, has long been one of the league's most talented backs. He's flashed in single plays and games and bursts, and even been dominant for long stretches. In 2010, his first year as a starter, he led the NFL in both rushing yards and touchdowns. In 2012, his last full season as a starter, he was first in the league in carries and rushing touchdowns.
When he broke down in the middle of the Texans' 2013 collapse, it solidified the idea that Foster was most effective as the primary back in a two- or three-man committee, not as a 30-touch workhorse.
Through seven games in 2014, though, he was on pace for 333 carries; his second-highest total—and he was averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry with them; over a full yard higher than in 2013.
Should he keep that pace up, he'll finish with a career-best 1,731 yards and lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns for the third time in five years as a starter.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The stretch run outlook for the Texans is not great. At 4-5, they're well behind the Indianapolis Colts—and everything we know about today's NFL says the Texans are not going to catch the Colts while the Colts have such a massive advantage in quarterback play.
If any two non-quarterbacks in 2014 can defy that reality, though, it's Foster and Texans defensive end J.J. Watt. The former suffered a groin injury in Week 9 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he's unlikely to miss time after the Texans' Week 10 bye, per NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport (via NFL.com's Marc Sessler).
No. 32: Demaryius Thomas
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Who: Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 8 in receptions, No. 4 in receiving yards, No. 4 in PFF Overall, No. 6 in FO DYAR, No. 10 in AVA WPA, No. 10 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Anyone who plays with Peyton Manning, especially during his incredible run in Denver, is going to have inflated stats. Demaryius Thomas' numbers above are impressive, but don't seem overly dominant for the top weapon in Manning's arsenal.
Then, consider that Thomas had only played seven games through Week 8. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, only Broncos No. 2 Emmanuel Sanders had put up total numbers near Thomas without the benefit of playing eight games.
At 6'3", 229 pounds and supremely athletic, Thomas would be a beast on any team. In fact, his numbers might be higher if he were force-fed the ball.
Stretch-Run Outlook: It doesn't seem like anyone can stop the Broncos.
After dominating a brutal first-half schedule, they're rounding into a soft slate of games while playing their best football. Barring injury to himself or Manning, Thomas will finish the season very near, or at, the top of just about all receiving metrics.
No. 31: Tyron Smith
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Who: Left tackle, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 21 in PFF Overall, No. 10 in PFF Pass Block, No. 51 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Tyron Smith made waves this offseason when he signed an eight-year, $98 million contract extension, per CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson. The 23-year-old had already established himself as one of the better left tackles in the game, and nothing's different in 2013.
Pro Football Focus grades are wonderful tools, and just about the only way to more or less objectively rank offensive linemen. That said, Smith's the cornerstone of an outstanding Cowboys offensive line, and even won an NFC Offensive Player of the Week award, which is very rare for an offensive lineman. Per Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith, it's been 10 years since a lineman was so honored.
Despite not garnering the very best PFF grades, Smith is clearly a great young tackle in the midst of an excellent season.
Stretch-Run Outlook: It's hard to see Smith slowing down this year, as he's so young he's still getting better. The Cowboys are only a half-game back in the NFC East right now—but with four divisional games in their last six, things could get very interesting.
No. 30: Muhammad Wilkerson
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Who: Defensive End, New York Jets (1-8)
By the Numbers: No. 6 in sacks, No. 4 in solo tackles, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 5 in AVA +WPA, No. 3 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Muhammad Wilkerson, one of a parade of chunky pass-rushers drafted by the Jets under head coach Rex Ryan's stewardship, has blossomed into one of the league's most dominant defensive linemen. As a 3-4 end, Wilkerson dominates against the run. Per Pro Football Focus, Wilkerson's been the best run-stuffing 3-4 end in the NFL this season.
The 25-year-old hasn't lost any of his athleticism, though; he's managed to rack up 4.5 official sacks in eight games. In fact, it seems as though he's just now growing into his 6'4", 305-pound frame.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Wilkerson's production is trending way up, but the Jets' trendline has busted through the bottom of the chart and is digging its way to China. Teams will have less and less incentive to pass against the Jets if their offense can't get it together.
Though that won't impact Wilkerson's play, it might impact his stats and his case for individual honors.
No. 29: Chris Harris, Jr.
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Who: Cornerback, Denver Broncos (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 7 in interceptions, No. 3 in passes defensed, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 34 in AVA +WPA, No. 20 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Name all the best players on the Denver Broncos. How many do you get to before you get to Chris Harris, Jr.? Fourteen? Eighteen? Do you get to him at all? Between splashy free-agent signees like cornerback Aqib Talib and safety T.J. Ward, and 2012 playoff goat Rahim Moore, Harris is probably the least-well-known member of the Broncos secondary.
Opposing offenses don't have to be told to avoid him, though. Per Pro Football Focus, he's been thrown at fewer times than any of the Broncos' top three cornerbacks. He's allowed a miniscule 30.4 passer efficiency rating on those 38 targets and earned the best Pro Football Focus coverage grade of any cornerback.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Broncos are the best team in the NFL; everyone's chasing them. As they turn the corner into the soft part of their schedule, players like Harris are going to feast on lesser competition. You'll hear more and more about him as the season goes on.
No. 28: Luke Kuechly
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Who: Inside linebacker, Carolina Panthers (3-5-1)
By the Numbers: No. 7 in sacks, No. 2 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 8 in AVA +WPA, No. 9 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Luke Kuechly has been one of the NFL's most prolific tacklers throughout his short career. He was a tackling machine during his 2012 rookie season, but careful watching revealed room for improvement in coverage. In 2013, he took a big step forward and was named First Team All-Pro. In 2014, despite a big step back from the Panthers defense—and the team as a whole—Kuechly's been a key player yet again.
Despite still being a bit of a "pile-jumper" (he leads all inside linebackers, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, with 41 assists), he's improved in coverage, and even shown a little teeth while blitzing.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After starting out surprisingly well, given their offseason losses, the Panthers are looking worse every single week. Kuechly will not only have the chance to keep shouldering the load in everything the Panthers defense does, he'll likely face a lot of opposing offensive repetitions to help pad his stats.
No. 27: Pat McAfee
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Who: Punter, Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in raw punting average, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in PFF Kickoff
Story So Far: One of the best punters in the game, Pat McAfee has a big leg and directs the ball well. He's No. 2 in raw punting average, and per Pro Football Focus, he's No. 1 in net average—what really matters when it comes to field position.
As good of a punter as he is, he's just as good of a kickoff specialist. He's had the lowest return rate of any regular kickoff man, as PFF noted, and has their top kickoff grade so far.
He's also smart and funny on Twitter.
Stretch-Run Outlook: McAfee is a key part of the Colts' AFC South title defense this season. He helps put quarterback Andrew Luck and the offense in great situations, and can help put opponents in a hole. As long as his leg doesn't fall off, nothing about that should change in the back half of the Colts' schedule.
No. 26: Trent Williams
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Who: Left tackle, Washington (3-6)
By the Numbers: No. 4 in PFF Overall, No. 6 in PFF Pass Block, No. 12 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: The quarterback situation in Washington—not to mention the ownership situation, the stadium situation, the mascot situation and the "losing lots of games" situation—has overshadowed the play of some very talented football players.
One of those is left tackle Trent Williams, a 6'5", 337-pound behemoth who has the tenacity and athleticism to make the most of that big frame. One of the least talked about impact offensive linemen, Williams has been key in allowing Washington's deep-ball passing game to open up (regardless of whom he's protecting).
Stretch-Run Outlook: Typically, when an offensive lineman is having a great season, there's not a lot of fluctuation (and it doesn't always make waver with the quality of competition).
However, Williams' numbers and grades could take a hit with the return of quarterback Robert Griffin III, if the Baylor product can't effectively balance his athleticism with his pocket awareness. With Griffin freewheeling behind him, Williams could end up "allowing" sacks that aren't truly his fault.
No. 25: Andrew Luck
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Who: Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 8 in NFL PER, No. 7 in ESPN TQBR, No. 3 in FO DYAR, No. 12 in AVA WPA, No. 3 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Andrew Luck took a big step forward from his rookie season to his second year, despite changing offensive coordinators. He's taken another big leap from his second to his third and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Luck leads the NFL in passing attempts, as offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has finally opened up the offense and is letting his signal-caller air it out. He hasn't been as ruthlessly efficient as the other top quarterbacks, falling in the fifth-to-10th range in many advanced metrics and rate stats.
However, he's on pace for a record-challenging 5,462 passing yards this season, with 44 touchdowns to boot, and there's no denying either the Colts' contender status in the AFC or his massive role in making that happen. With a subpar running game and wildly up-and-down defense, the Colts have put everything in Luck's hands.
He just might be good enough to carry them to the top.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After playing the New York Giants in New York, going on bye and hosting the New England Patriots, the Colts have a very soft path to the postseason.
Washington, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans make up five of the Colts' last six opponents; every one of those games is eminently winnable. It's hard to see any way the Colts—third in points differential, per Pro-Football-Reference.com—don't win 10 games and the AFC South.
No. 24: Cameron Wake
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Who: Defensive end, Miami Dolphins (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 5 in sacks*, No. 14 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall
Story So Far: Cameron Wake's NFL career got off to a slow start; the former CFL standout was introduced to the league at age 27. In six seasons south of the (US/Canada) border, the speed rusher has been named to the Pro Bowl three times. In his 15-sack 2012 season, the speed rusher was named First Team All-Pro.
By the time many pass rushers reach Wake's age (32), many have lost a step or gained a few pounds and have to change their game. Chicago Bears defensive end Jared Allen just expressed this frustration to Zach Zaidman of the Bears' radio network, saying he needed "to find a half a step" his body seems to have misplaced.
Despite several scheme changes in Miami over Wake's relatively short career, he still does what he does as well as anyone.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After Wake and the Dolphins had an incredible start to the season—Wake notched two sacks in an upset of the mighty New England Patriots—things slowed down for both.
From Weeks 6-8, however, Wake racked up 3.5 sacks, helping the Fins go 2-1. With their next three games coming against playoff contenders, they're getting hot at just the right time. They still have to host the Buffalo Bills, play the Patriots on the road and deal with the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, but a home-and-home against the New York Jets and a winnable game against the Minnesota Vikings give them a shot in the crowded AFC East.
*Pro-Football-Reference.com has a few oddities tracking defensive line stats; this is my best interpretation of their data.
No. 23: Ndamukong Suh
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Who: Defensive tackle, Detroit Lions (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 6 in sacks, No. 7 in solo tackles, No. 4 in PFF Overall, No. 24 in AVA +WPA, No. 30 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: 2010's No. 2 overall pick exploded onto the scene his rookie season, racking up 10 sacks and a slew of awards. In the four seasons since, he hasn't accrued nearly as many sacks on a week-to-week basis—but he's become a much more disruptive down-to-down presence and much more complete player.
Ndamukong Suh used to be one of the easiest defensive tackles to run on, thanks to his tendency to aggressively rush upfield no matter what. He's since tamed that and is Pro Football Focus' third-best run-stuffer among defensive tackles in 2013.
Despite only having 3.5 official sacks so far, Pro Football Focus credits him with an NFL-best 20 hurries.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Suh is going to have to assert his will even further, as partner in crime Nick Fairley is sidelined for an unknown period, per Tim Twentyman of the team's official site. The Lions did lift the suspension of rotational third tackle C.J. Mosley on Monday, giving them slightly more depth against the Miami Dolphins, but Fairley's injury still leaves them thin.
After that, Detroit has a brutal two-game road trip at the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots before closing with four division games out of five. The Week 17 matchup against the Green Bay Packers could decide the division—and the Lions haven't won in Wisconsin since 1991.
No. 22: Khalil Mack
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Who: Outside linebacker, Oakland Raiders (0-8)
By the Numbers: No sacks, 35 solo tackles, No. 1 PFF Overall, No. 44 AVA +WPA, No. 14 AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Khalil Mack is a rookie, came out of a college in the lowliest conference in FBS, has no professional sacks and plays for a team with no wins.
Yet not only is he a serious Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, he's been one of the best defenders in football this year. The 6'3", 251-pound Mack is a perfect example of how NFL teams can project players with thin college resumes.
There was no denying Mack's incredible explosion numbers at the combine, and they show up on film. Anyone who's watched a Raiders game this season has seen the incredible impact he has had.
Consider, for a moment, the difficulty of an outside linebacker adding nearly a half-game's worth of win probability for a team that hasn't won a single game, and you have an idea of the difference Mack has made.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Raiders are a dead team walking, and head coach Dennis Allen has long since been sent packing. Whatever, or whomever, comes next for the Raiders should build the defense around Mack.
No. 21: Jordy Nelson
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Who: Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 6 in receptions, No. 5 in receiving yards, No. 3 in PFF Overall, No. 5 in FO DYAR, No. 2 in AVA WPA, No. 6 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Jordy Nelson has often missed out on the accolades his talent deserves. Whether that's because injuries to either himself or star quarterback Aaron Rodgers have prevented him from putting up an outstanding 16-game season, the presence of Rodgers makes Nelson's star seem dimmer or because he just doesn't look the part of a dominant No. 1 wideout, it's the unfortunate truth.
This season, his production's been too great to ignore—and, as NFL Lead Writer Matt Bowen pointed out on film, his combination of physical tools and mental savvy is placing him firmly among the very best in the business.
Stretch-Run Outlook: After stumbling out of the gate, the Packers ripped off four straight big wins before unexpectedly stumbling in New Orleans.
Now, the Packers are one game out of first place in the NFC North. After their Week 9 bye, they'll play the second game of all three divisional rivalries, plus a relatively stiff non-division slate that includes the Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.
No. 20: Marcell Dareus
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Who: Defensive tackle, Buffalo Bills (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in sacks, No. 2 in solo tackles, No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 6 in AVA +WPA, No. 4 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: For years, Marcell Dareus has lived in the shadow of fellow Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Not this year. Dareus has had a fantastic season, leading all defensive tackles with a whopping seven sacks in eight games.
The 6'3", 331-pounder has exploded under the tutelage of new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Despite being built like a pure run-stuffer, his powerful frame, strong burst and excellent hand technique make him difficult to handle in pass rush.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Bills defensive line has been having an outstanding year, and Dareus is having the best season of all. He'll need to keep it up, as the Bills will almost certainly have to catch and pass the red-hot New England Patriots if they want to make the postseason.
No. 19: Marshal Yanda
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Who: Right guard, Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 28 in PFF Pass Block, No. 1 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Marshal Yanda has been one of the league's strongest interior mashers over the past few seasons, and he's in fine form so far in 2014.
His ability to blow open holes in defenses has kept the Ravens' power-run game strong, despite the attrition in the backfield. Tailback Justin Forsett leads the NFL with a whopping 5.4 average yards per attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Yanda's been crushing one-on-ones consistently for years, but in 2013, he dropped all the way to 15th in PFF's overall grades. That was at least partially due to a team-wide decline in both rushing attempts and rushing success.
Under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, the power run game is back—and Yanda's back on top. The Ravens have been one of the AFC's best teams this season and should be contending well into January.
No. 18: Vontae Davis
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Who: Cornerback, Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 17 in interceptions, No. 2 in passes defensed, No. 3 in PFF Overall, No. 16 in AVA +WPA, No. 13 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Vontae Davis didn't quite live up to his first-round draft status in Miami, as he was traded to the Colts after three seasons. With each successive season in Indianapolis, he's looked more and more like a crucial piece of the "monster" Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is building.
Davis has two interceptions and 12 passes defensed—second in the league—in just seven games played. He's also got the third-lowest NFL passer efficiency rating allowed, per Pro Football Focus. The physical Davis has been extremely tough to throw the ball against.
When he missed the Week 8 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers due to an elbow injury, the drop-off in the Colts defense was obvious. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger lit up the Colts for 51 points; they'd been allowing an average of just 19.4 points per game before then.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Davis' elbow injury was a one-week thing, and the Colts are still in first place in the AFC South. As teams increasingly turn to the pass to catch up with quarterback Andrew Luck and the offense, Davis' continued excellence will be key—and his numbers could even go up.
No. 17: Aaron Rodgers
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Who: Quarterback, Green Bay Packers (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in NFL PER, No. 4 in ESPN TQBR, No. 7 in FO DYAR, No. 2 in AVA WPA, No. 4 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: After an injury-marred 2013—that, injury aside, still wasn't up to his usual standard—Aaron Rodgers was widely tipped to return to form in 2014 and lead the Packers back into conference title contention. He's returned to statistical form, putting up eye-popping numbers in line with his career bests (and that's saying something).
With his usually fantastic rate stats still fantastic (7.6 percent touchdown rate, 1.2 percent interception rate, 8.18 adjusted net yards per attempt), it's hard to find a quarterback who does more with each throw than Rodgers. Top receiver Jordy Nelson is having a fantastic season, and complementary weapons Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are heating up as the year goes on.
That said, the whole of the Packers offense seems less than the sum of its parts, especially against top competition. The Packers boast a seventh-best 27.8 points-per-game scoring average—but in three losses against the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints they've averaged just 15.3 points per game.
At their midseason bye week, the Packers are one game behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North and in good position to battle the Philadelphia Eagles and all three NFC West contenders for two Wild Card spots.
Stretch-Run Outlook:"Battling for a Wild Card spot" isn't exactly where the Packers wanted to be at this point. Back-half home games against the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons look very winnable now, as do road games at Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Yet they also host the Eagles and Patriots, and face the Buffalo Bills on the road.
The Week 17 rematch against the Lions looms large. This time, it'll be in Wisconsin, where the Lions haven't won since 1991—when Brett Favre was a third-string rookie for the Falcons and Jason Hanson was kicking for Washington State University.
No. 16: Mario Williams
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Who: Defensive end, Buffalo Bills (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 3 in sacks*, No. 12 in solo tackles, No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 27 in +WPA, No. 25 in +EPA
Story So Far: After Mario Williams signed a massive free-agent contract with the cold-weather, small-market, uninspiring Buffalo Bills, the football world seemed to write him off. Yet he's racked up double-digit sacks in each of his first two seasons in Buffalo and is on pace to do it again in 2014.
With all the (understandable) hype over rookie pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney, Williams is a no-less-freaky combination of size and speed. At 6'6", 292 pounds and an official 4.66 40-yard dash time, Williams is an absolute monster off the edge. Together with defensive tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, the Bills have one of the best defensive lines in football—maybe the best.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Bills are in excellent shape so far, two games above .500 and one game behind the New England Patriots. Midseason free-agent quarterback Kyle Orton is playing improbably well, and the Bills have a relatively easy second-half slate.
Leading up to what could be a decisive Week 17 rematch with the Patriots, the Bills play the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders. They come out of their Week 9 bye hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, though, and face the Denver Broncos on the road December 7. If the Bills can't get a win in either of those two tough matchups, they may have a hard time catching, much less passing, the Patriots.
*Pro-Football-Reference.com has a few oddities tracking defensive line stats; this is my best interpretation of their data.
No. 15: Eric Weddle
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Who: Safety, San Diego Chargers (5-4)
By the Numbers: No. 17 in interceptions, No. 2 in passes defensed, No. 1 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 31 in AVA +WPA, No. 14 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Weddle's been one of the best two-way safeties in the NFL for years on end, and this year's no exception.
In fact, the two-time Pro Bowler and former First Team All-Pro's having one of his best seasons. He's on pace to approach or beat career bests in passes defensed and solo tackles, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Weddle, though, is so much more than a great safety with a glorious beard. The captain is a trusted veteran and respected leader. He even started a line of Chargers-themed jewelry with a local San Diego jeweler, proceeds of which support domestic violence.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Chargers were able to sneak into the 2013 playoff field with a near-miraculous rally to 8-8. This season, the AFC is stacked, and they'll have to have a near-flawless stretch run to stay ahead of the pack in the Wild Card race (or pray for a massive collapse by the dominant Denver Broncos).
No. 14: Josh Sitton
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Who: Left guard, Green Bay Packers (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in PFF Pass Block, No. 6 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Often, when a longtime center or guard leaves an established offensive line, his linemates seem to suffer. Though center Evan Dietrich-Smith left the Packers this spring, Josh Sitton's been a rock. Per Pro Football Focus, he's allowed no sacks at all through eight games.
As scout Chris Landry told Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Bob Fox, Sitton's an elite guard, in "that upper echelon" of two-way offensive linemen.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Sitton will need to keep his play up through the remainder of the season. The Packers are only one game behind the Detroit Lions for the NFC North division lead, but face the Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the second half of the season—along with three more games against division rivals.
No. 13: DeAndre Levy
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Who: Outside Linebacker, Detroit Lions (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 50 in sacks, No. 1 in solo tackles, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 4 in AVA +WPA, No. 2 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: When the season began, DeAndre Levy was an anonymous player on a mediocre defense. Now, he's the best player on the NFL's best defense.
In between, the football-watching world took note of his athleticism, versatility and playmaking ability. As MMQB's Robert Klemko noted with astonishment, the Lions put Levy on star Green Bay Packers receiver Jordy Nelson on a crucial fourth down.
The Lions are the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense, and Levy—on pace for a whopping 112 solo tackles—is making the plays that establish them as a threat. Combine his coverage ability with relentless, sideline-to-sideline, run-stuffing mojo and an ability to get heat on the blitz, and he's the total package.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Lions are atop the NFC North and should be getting many of their key offensive playmakers back after the Week 9 bye. That said, they've also lost defensive tackle Nick Fairley for a good amount of time.
Even if the Lions defense isn't as good in the back half of the season as the front half, the offense should be getting better. As fantasy football players in IDP leagues know, a defender that gets caught up in a lot of shootouts gets more opportunities to pad stats. Watch for Levy's production to increase, not decrease, as the season rolls on.
No. 12: T.Y. Hilton
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Who: Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 4 in receptions, No. 1 in receiving yards, No. 2 in PFF Overall, No. 2 in FO DYAR, No. 4 in AVA WPA, No. 1 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: It seems like T.Y. Hilton has been the breakout star of the Colts offense in each of his three seasons in the NFL. First as a pure deep-threat speedster, then as the most talented man left standing in an injury-weakened unit.
With the healthy returns of receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dwayne Allen, Hilton's got far more space in which to work his magic—and the results have been obvious. He's on pace for 106 catches and 1,732 yards, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, far outstripping his big sophomore year in both categories (82, 1,083).
Hilton hasn't gotten in the end zone as often (he's on pace for just four touchdowns), but his 10th-ranked average of 16.3 yards per reception, as noted by Pro-Football-Reference.com, proves he's every bit the deep threat he was as a rookie, despite his full workload.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Colts offense, finally built around quarterback Andrew Luck, has been consistently excellent, averaging a second-best 31.2 points per game. The defense, though, has been wildly inconsistent.
Whether the Colts are blowing teams out or getting caught up in shootouts, they should continue feeding Hilton (and putting up points) like crazy. From Week 12 on, they face only two teams with winning records (the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys).
No. 11: Antonio Brown
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Who: Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in receptions, No. 2 in receiving yards, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 3 in FO DYAR, No. 13 in AVA WPA, No. 3 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: He isn't a skyscraper like Calvin Johnson, and he isn't a freight train like Anquan Boldin. In fact, 6'3", 214-pound Eric Decker has to wonder why nobody questions whether 5'10", 180-pound Antonio Brown is a "true" No. 1 receiver.
The smooth, quick, explosive Brown has proven it the only way it really matters: catching a lot of passes for a lot of yards and touchdowns.
On pace for a whopping 120 catches for 1,704 yards and 14 touchdowns, Brown has more than proven the Steelers right for choosing to keep him and let Mike Wallace leave in free agency.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Nobody seems to know which Pittsburgh offensive machine will show up week to week in 2014—the top fuel dragster or the electric golf cart. Nevertheless, the Steelers will have the throttle wide open down the stretch, as they have a slew of divisional games and no margin for error in the suddenly cutthroat AFC.
No. 10: DeMarco Murray
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Who: Tailback, Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in rushing yards, No. 6 in Yds/Att, No. 5 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in FO DYAR, No. 5 in AVA WPA, No. 13 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: DeMarco Murray has been one of the NFL's most talented backs for years. Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's most recent B/R 1000 evaluation of Murray tells the tale: He has power, but doesn't use it consistently, great speed, but goes in questionable directions—and he's prone to both injuries and fumbles.
With the Cowboys' bolstering of their offensive line, Murray's found bigger holes and hit them with much more confidence. The Cowboys have kept feeding him the ball, and the results have been breathtaking.
After Week 8, he was averaging 131.8 yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. That put him on pace for 2,108 yards—enough to break Eric Dickerson's 30-year-old single-season rushing record of 2,105.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Murray's relatively low WPA and EPA numbers point toward a truth that was revealed in Week 8's disastrous Monday Night Football outing: When the chips are down, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett still trusts quarterback Tony Romo's arm more than Murray's legs.
Though the Cowboys play four divisional games in their last six (against a division they've outclassed throughout the first half of the season), the idea that Garrett might pull the ball out of Murray's arms in close games down the stretch doesn't bode well for Murray's record run.
Further, Murray's already fumbled five times. If his ball-control issues start costing the Cowboys games, or if his body breaks under the league's heaviest workload, that's it for the record, and that might be it for the Cowboys coasting to the playoffs.
No. 9: Nick Mangold
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Who: Center, New York Jets (1-8)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in PFF Pass Block, No. 1 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Nick Mangold has been one of the NFL's best centers for years. In his nine-year career, he's been a Pro Bowler five times and named a First Team All-Pro twice.
This just might be his best year yet, even as the Jets offense collapses around him. He's dominating the Pro Football Focus grades and opening great running lanes (even if only one of the Jets' running backs is reading them).
The apparent quality of interior linemen is often affected by the play of their linemates. Considering that every other Jets offensive lineman is deep into the negative end of PFF's grades, Mangold's quality is undeniable.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Grim. The Jets are 1-8 and grasping at straws. General manager John Idzik, head coach Rex Ryan or both could be fired at the end of the year—or sooner.
Mangold, of course, will be blameless.
No. 8: Von Miller
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Who: Outside linebacker, Denver Broncos (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 2 in sacks, No. 18 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 45 in +WPA EPA, No. 25 in AVA +EPA.
Story So Far: When last we left this edition of Von Miller, he was on my list of the NFL's most unstoppable players—and for good reason. He's got incredible speed, physics-defying power, surprising versatility and a motor that's always redlining.
Miller has the tools of a classic 3-4 outside linebacker, but he's adapted to his role in Denver's 4-3, to say the least. Coverage, despite his athleticism, has never been his strong suit.
Instead, he's just so incredible at rushing the passer and disrupting the run that he's nearly doubled the grade Pro Football Focus gave him as the second-best 4-3 outside linebacker.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Broncos are one of the best teams in football right now. Miller, together with new pass-rush partner DeMarcus Ware, is going to spend the rest of the season teeing off on quarterbacks desperately trying to play catch-up with the monstrous Broncos offense.
That's great news for Miller, and terrible news for opposing quarterbacks.
No. 7: Gerald McCoy
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Who: Defensive tackle, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
By the Numbers: No. 10 in sacks, No. 14 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 4 in AVA +WPA, No. 3 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: Gerald McCoy, Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's top defensive tackle entering the season, continues to be not only an anchor for the Bucs defense, but a disruptive force in the middle.
The No. 3 overall pick of the 2010 draft has more than proven his worth. His quickness, explosiveness and power make him all but impossible to block one-on-one. His PFF Pass Rush grade, plus-22.3, is nearly double that of second-place Kyle Williams.
Stretch-Run Outlook: It's a mulligan of a season for the Bucs, as head coach Lovie Smith tries to put his stamp on the defense and team. The 1-7 Bucs aren't going anywhere this season, but at least they have the best Tampa 2 three-technique tackle since Buccaneers legend Warren Sapp.
No. 6: Tom Brady
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Who: Quarterback, New England Patriots (7-2)
By the Numbers: No. 5 in NFL PER, No. 6 in ESPN TQBR, No. 4 in FO DYAR, No. 9 in AVA WPA, No. 8 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: The first four games of 2013 may have been the roughest of Tom Brady's career. He completed less than 60 percent of his passes, threw just four touchdowns (and two interceptions) and his Patriots struggled to go 2-2.
The second four games of 2014 were as excellent as the first four were rough, though, and his production has crept back up toward the NFL's upper echelons. He's still ranked 16th in completion rate, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, but he's fourth in touchdown rate, second in interception rate and ninth in adjusted net yards per attempt.
If Brady spends the rest of the season playing as well as he did against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets and Chicago Bears, he'll be an MVP favorite come January.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Brady and the Patriots just kicked off a brutal five-game run. After beating the Denver Broncos in Week 9, then taking their bye, they'll play the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers. That's five games against teams who were a collective 27-12.
If Brady and the Patriots get through that stretch with just one or two losses, their final three games are against the rest of the AFC East—giving them plenty of opportunity to salt the division away or push for home-field advantage.
If something happens and they only win one or two games out of those five, they may have to beat the Buffalo Bills head-to-head in Week 17 just to make the playoffs.
No. 5: Joe Thomas
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Who: Left tackle, Cleveland Browns (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 2 in PFF Pass Block, No. 2 in PFF Run Block
Story So Far: Joe Thomas, who's consistently been one of the best left tackles in the NFL, is having an unbelievable season. Pro Football Focus has charted him with allowing just one sack, one hit, and three hurries in eight games.
Thomas' work in keeping first-year starter Brian Hoyer clean has helped fuel the Browns' surprising run of winning football.
Stretch-Run Outlook: Thomas, barring injury, has the talent and consistency to keep this form up all year.
What about the Browns? They have a manageable schedule for the next month or so, with games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons.
After that, the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers are sprinkled in between a home-and-home with the Cincinnati Bengals and a rematch with the Baltimore Ravens.
No. 4: Justin Houston
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Who: Outside linebacker, Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in sacks, No. 11 in solo tackles, No. 2 in PFF Overall
Story So Far: Justin Houston, a fire-breathing pass-rusher, made a strong push for Defensive Player of the Year honors last season before injury sidelined him.
Halfway through 2014, he's leading the NFL with a whopping 12 official sacks in eight games. That puts him on pace for 24 sacks, which would break the official NFL record of 22.5. He's also strong against the run, getting Pro Football Focus's third-best run-stuffing grade so far.
Stretch-Run Outlook: With three losses through eight games, the Chiefs aren't likely to improve on last season's 11-5 record. Houston's incredible season likely isn't getting much press because of the Chiefs' middling campaign—but if he keeps racking up sacks at this rate, people will start paying attention very, very soon.
No. 3: Rob Gronkowski
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Who: Tight end, New England Patriots (7-2)
By the Numbers: No. 4 in receptions, No. 1 in receiving yards, No. 3 in PFF Overall, No. 3 in FO DYAR, No. 3 in AVA WPA, No. 1 in AVA EPA
Story So Far: Rob Gronkowski's been one of the most powerful difference-makers in the NFL over the past few seasons. Accordingly, his health was one of the biggest stories of the offseason. Sitting out with a surgically repaired knee, Gronkowski barely practiced and played no preseason games before snagging a touchdown in the season opener. Since then, he's gotten stronger nearly every week.
Against the Chicago Bears in Week 8, we saw him at Full Gronk: nine receptions, 149 yards, three touchdowns and a sense that nobody in a Bears uniform could tackle him. He's the most complete, most powerful tight end in the NFL and is on an upward trajectory.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Patriots started as cold as they've ever been in the Belichick Era, but are now as hot as they've ever been.
No matter how they finish over the back half of the schedule, Gronkowski's individual ability—and quarterback Tom Brady's willingness to lean on him—means the only thing that can slow him down is another injury.
No. 2: Peyton Manning
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Who: Quarterback, Denver Broncos (6-2)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in NFL PER, No. 1 in ESPN TQBR, No. 1 in FO DYAR, No. 1 in AFA WPA & EPA
Story So Far: Peyton Manning re-wrote the record books in 2013 with his incredible 5,477-yard, 55-touchdown season. In 2014, he hasn't been quite as prolific—but after Week 8 was still on pace for a whopping 4,878 yards and 50 touchdowns.
The Broncos, in the wake of a dominant march to the Super Bowl (and embarrassing blowout loss therein), re-loaded in free agency. Splash signings like pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware, cornerback Aqib Talib, safety T.J. Ward and receiver Emmanuel Sanders made them consensus favorites to repeat as AFC champions.
They picked up where they left off, matching 2013's 6-1 start. In fact, Manning's rate stats (completion rate, touchdown rate, interception rate, average yards-per-attempt, most one-number passer ratings) are even higher this season than last.
Manning notably eclipsed Brett Favre for the all-time touchdown record in Week 7, but being ranked No. 1 on this list isn't a lifetime achievement award—he's still the best at his position, and he's only getting better.
Stretch-Run Outlook: The Broncos felt the loss of tailback Knowshon Moreno, and a tough early schedule, at the start of the season (averaging "just" 25 points per game). Since the post-bye emergence of tailback Ronnie Hillman, the Broncos have racked up a whopping 37.3 points per game and now lead the NFL in scoring.
With Sanders' breakout nine-catch, 120-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 8, he's fully integrated into the Broncos scoring machine. Incredibly, Manning and the Broncos may put up even bigger numbers as they roll into the softest part of their schedule (Weeks 10-14).
No. 1: J.J. Watt
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Who: Defensive end, Houston Texans (4-5)
By the Numbers: No. 1 in sacks, No. 1 in solo tackles, No. 1 in PFF Overall, No. 1 in AVA +WPA, No. 1 in AVA +EPA
Story So Far: By literally any measure, J.J. Watt is the best defensive end in football. He's the best defensive lineman in football. He's the best defensive player in football. He's the best player in football.
Not only is Watt a monster pass-rusher with size, speed, relentlessness and a variety of moves, he's a 3-4 end. He can't just pin his ears back and rush the passer every down like some pass-rush specialists, and yet he produces better than most who do.
He still plays the run as well as some of the best 3-4 run stuffing-ends, per Pro Football Focus, and there isn't a defender in the NFL who makes big plays like Watt. He makes huge plays when the Texans need him most. That's why he leads all defenders in adding win probability.
Stretch-Run Outlook: At 4-5, the Texans are falling behind the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts. With one game against the Tennessee Titans and two against the Jacksonville Jaguars left, they've got a fighting chance to keep it close—but even with an MVP-worthy effort from Watt, it'll be hard to catch the high-flying Colts.
Apologies and Honorable Mentions
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Compiling a best-of list is a little like wedding invitations.
You can easily make a top 10 or 15 by keeping it to the very closest family and friends. Once you approach 20, though, you pretty much have to make it 40, because opening it up to extended family means you have to invite the whole extended family.
Then, once you invite Great Aunt Barb and Great Uncle Larry, you realize you can't invite them and not any of your co-workers...once you get past 40, it quickly becomes 70 or 80. Past 70 or 80 and you pretty much have to go 120, since now you're inviting nearly everyone you've ever really cared about.
This list is a little like that, since just the top player or two at every position doesn't quite make 50—yet the next 20 or 30 aren't far behind, if at all. So, here are the best of the rest—and if this list were re-compiled after Week 10, they might well be on it.
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers; Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Running Back: Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens; Alfred Morris, Washington
Wide Receiver: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos; Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
Tight End: Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts; Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
Offensive Tackle: Branden Albert, Miami Dolphins; Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals
Offensive Guard: Joel Bitonio, Cleveland Browns; Kyle Long, Chicago Bears
Offensive Center: Maurkice Pouncey, Pittsburgh Steelers; Dominic Raiola, Detroit Lions
Defensive Tackle: Aaron Donald, St. Louis Rams; Kyle Williams, Buffalo Bills
Defensive End: Junior Galette, New Orleans Saints; Everson Griffen, Minnesota Vikings
Outside Linebacker: Anthony Barr; Minnesota Vikings; Thomas Davis, Carolina Panthers
Inside Linebacker: C.J. Mosley, Baltimore Ravens; Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers
Cornerback: Perrish Cox, San Francisco 49ers; Brandon Flowers, San Diego Chargers
Safety: Malcolm Jenkins, Philadelphia Eagles; Charles Woodson, Oakland Raiders
Placekicker: Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings; Matt Bryant, Atlanta Falcons
Punter: Sam Martin, Detroit Lions; Dustin Colquitt, Kansas City Chiefs
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