NFL Week 7 Picks: Cowboys Are Surging, but Broncos Are Leading the Polls
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, this week featuring a disproportionate number of Terry Pegula-inspired all-caps rants.
Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.
49ers at Broncos
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Broncos -7
A Harris poll decreed this week that the Broncos have replaced the Cowboys as America's Team. Since election season is the perfect time of year to criticize pollsters and my entire career has been a misguided effort to bite Nate Silver on the ankle, it's time for Game Previews to utterly debunk this statistically dubious balderdash.
The pollsters surveyed 2,543 adults, 1,275 of whom said they followed professional football. That's right, Harris (a Nielsen company) found a cross-section of America in which only half the population has any interest in that there NFL thingy. It must have been exhausting to canvass all those quilting bees and organic gardening co-ops. This sounds suspiciously like one of those landline-only polls, which allow us to take the pulse of a portion of the nation that has chosen to ignore two decades of technological advancement.
The Broncos ranked first in the poll, followed by the Giants, Packers, Cowboys and Steelers. The Giants?
The battle for the title America's Team is like the race for president: It's about electoral votes, so it does not matter how big you win in New York. A 50 percent football-ignorant population that professes some vague affiliation with the Giants sounds like it was conducted entirely in Central Park.
And where are the Patriots? If any team has supplanted the Cowboys in the minds and hearts of that breed of fan who changes loyalties based on some mysterious alchemy of recent success, star power and longitudinal mass-media saturation, it's Tom Brady and the gang. They rank eighth, behind the teams listed above, the Seahawks and the 49ers.
The poll was conducted during the week of September 10, after the Patriots were upset in the opener and the Seahawks had just dominated in the season premiere. The Broncos also had a prime-time win in the days before the poll, which (to reiterate) featured 50 percent semi-casual fans. It sounds like the poll of unlikely voters conducted two days after a candidate selects a running mate: Well tarnation, he was on the news this week, and he has a fancy suit, so dad-gum, I WILL vote for what's-their-names!
Pollsters often call me on my land line, which the kids call Grandma's Batphone. "May I speak to Michael Trainer?" they ask. I tell them anything. Yes, Keith Olbermann and Paula Deen would be my dream presidential ticket. I would buy cotton candy and habanero potato chips. My median household income? It's four-million Krygyzstani som per lunar year. For actual information about people's preferences, I use a doohickey called the Internet, where 2,500 data points represent about 0.25 seconds of clicking.
There is no "America's Team" like there was in the 1970s, just as television shows will never carry a Nielsen rating over 30 for five years the way All in the Family did. There are diehards in torn jerseys singing "Fly, Eagles, Fly," and then there are millions of casual fans who gamble, play fantasy, front-run in a way that would have gotten a Philly kid wedgied into the next county 30 years ago and root for personalities as much as for teams. Cue the spooky Ned Beatty speech from Network. There are no more Cowboys. There are no more Broncos. There is no more America's Team. There is only Peyton and Kaepernick, Watt and Sherman, Brady, Romo, Revis, Wilson and Megatron. Those are the teams of the world today.
The Broncos, in other words, are meddling with the primal forces of nature. And no one knows better than they do that opinion polls, power rankings and all-time touchdown records are hollow victories.
Actual Start of Game Previews.
Sigh...that leaves us with little space to actually preview this game! No worries: You know these teams very well, and I can always squeeze in a little extra space by short-changing the Chargers in their preview: According to the poll, the Chargers have negative-three fans.
Rather than bathe in the Peyton-versus-Kaepernick chowder, let's look at one potentially crucial Broncos-49ers matchup. The Broncos are tied for the best short-yardage defense in the NFL this year, according to Football Outsiders. Opponents are just 2-of-7 rushing to convert third or fourth downs of one or two yards. Seventeen goal-to-goal running plays—by power backs like Marshawn Lynch, Chris Ivory and Knile Davis (and, well, Trent Richardson)—have yielded just five touchdowns.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have the worst short-yardage offense in the NFL. They are 5-of-13 on short yardage conversions on third and fourth downs, with two fourth-down failures. (The NFL success rate on short conversions is around 66 percent.) They have scored just three touchdowns in 12 goal-to-go rushes, prompting Jim Harbaugh to replace Frank Gore with Carlos Hyde near the goal line, a plan that backfired on Monday night.
We think of the 49ers as the "power" team in this matchup, but they can no longer gain the tough yards they need. One or two stuffs on 3rd-and-1, and the punts and field goal settles which result, will be the stops the Broncos need to help Peyton Manning pull away.
The Broncos will remain No. 1 in the power rankings next week, though some dissenters will choose the Cowboys instead. After all, the Cowboys are very good, and it always pays to appease their many, many national fans.
Prediction: Broncos 28, 49ers 20
Giants at Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Cowboys -7
You had to go and do it, didn't you, Joseph Randle? You just had to shoplift that bottle of Guilty cologne, which you can purchase online for about $45. If you felt absolutely compelled to steal cologne, why not just break into the owner's box men's room? Jerry Jones not only has Guilty, but some Clive Christian No. 1 in a gallon jug, plus a test tube of some top-secret stuff made from a mixture of saffron, powdered rhino horn and distilled Robert Mitchum sweat. Jones would probably throw in some underwear, too, if you are not fussy about the original packaging.
But no, you had to shoplift, just as the Cowboys were riding higher than they have ever ridden in the past 20 years. They immediately lapsed into one of their worst habits: the annual midseason fret about running back carry totals.
Jerry Jones has been waxing philosophical about crazily concocted roles for his backs since the days when Marion Barber was a fourth-quarter specialist. He and Jason Garrett have worried for weeks about overusing DeMarco Murray, all the while increasing Murray's carries in the kind of reverse logic that held sway in Dallas from the day Bill Parcells left until about halftime of the Rams game. With Randle presumably in the doghouse, Jones and Garrett may not be able to help themselves from feeding Murray a weekly 35-touch workload, all the while looking at each other and saying, "We shouldn't be doing this."
Eric Dickerson leapt into the fray by week's end, telling Yahoo that he sees nothing wrong with a 400-carry workload for Murray. That means Dickerson has never seen Murray get injured or fumble, which means Dickerson has never seen Murray play. Dickerson added that he was never healthy in 1986, the season he carried the ball over 400 times, but that shouldn't matter to Murray, who is not Dickerson.
Dickerson is not a Cowboys employee (imagine how much money he would expect!), but it's always frightening when ideas like these enter the ether, where they might potentially lodge themselves deep in Jones' psyche. If Jim Brown chimes in about how guys carried 30 times per game on two fractured ankles in his day, Murray is doomed.
The Cowboys should not need 30 touches from Murray to beat the Giants. They should also take note of what happens when a promising team loses a vital skill position star. Giants optimism disappeared the moment Victor Cruz got hurt Sunday night. It's one thing to lose a key player to injury, and yet another to grind him down when there is a capable breather back on the sideline. Give Murray 20 carries, Jerry and Jason, and let Randle handle some of the mop-up duties. He may not be Murray, but at least he smells ready.
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Giants 21
Bengals at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts -3
It is fitting that the Bengals tied the Panthers, because the Bengals are suffering so many losses at the skill positions they are turning into the Panthers. A.J. Green (toe) will miss another week, and Marvin Jones (foot) is finally having surgery. Tyler Eifert (elbow) has resumed conditioning work but will not be back for a while. If the Bengals had lost Gio Bernard in what initially looked like a scary injury last week, Cam Newton might have ran into the wrong locker room after the game.
The receiver injuries have marked the triumphant NFL return of Greg Little, whose hands emit static force fields that repel footballs. Little was last seen dropping passes in Raiders camp this summer; he has Green-level athletic ability, so he keeps getting opportunities, but unless you enjoy watching a receiver get two-steps open down the sideline so a football can carom off his knuckles, Little's presence on a roster spells bad news.
The Colts have just the opposite of a receiver problem. T.Y. Hilton had one of the best receiving games ever last Thursday night, while Reggie Wayne has been his usual consistent self. The Colts love to deploy two-and-three tight end sets to get Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and Jack Doyle on the field at the same time, limiting Hakeem Nicks to a screen-and-slot role. It's getting harder and harder to find 17 carries to waste on Trent Richardson, especially when the Colts now pass when trying to preserve a lead instead of pretending that Richardson's one-yard plunges are somehow helping. And yet they find a way.
When these teams met last year (a 42-28 Bengals win), the obvious joke was that they were playing for an important tiebreaker: The winner got to host the weakest Wild Card team before losing in Denver or Foxboro. The Bengals did, in fact, host the weakest Wild Card team and lose to them; the Colts lost in Foxboro. The Bengals still get the turbo yips whenever the spotlight is on them, and the Colts still play basketball-style momentum games and ignore obvious problems, so expect more of the same this week, and this season.
Prediction: Colts 31, Bengals 30
Falcons at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -7.5
Fun facts about Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, the third and 18th players taken in the 2008 draft:
• Flacco and Ryan have met just once in the regular season: a 26-21 Falcons win in a Thursday nighter in November of 2010. Each quarterback threw three touchdowns in the game. Flacco led a 72-yard drive in the final minutes and threw a touchdown to Todd Heap to give the Ravens a 21-20 lead, but Ryan answered by driving 80 yards in 45 seconds with only one timeout, winning the game with a 33-yard touchdown to Roddy White.
• According to Google Maps, Ryan's high school (William Penn Charter in Philly) is exactly 16.8 miles from Flacco's high school (Audubon High School in New Jersey). Google Maps says the drive takes 28 minutes, which means Google Maps thinks you can helicopter over the Schuylkill Expressway.
• Against the Buccaneers this year, Flacco and Ryan are a combined 42-of-58 for 592 yards, with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions, a completion rate of 79.2 percent and an efficiency rating of 152.8. Ryan gets to face the Bucs again in three weeks. He should donate some of the touchdowns to the Vikings.
• Flacco has never missed a start. Ryan has not missed a start since December of 2009. Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, Joe Webb, Donovan McNabb, Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman and Teddy Bridgewater have all started games for the Vikings since Ryan or Flacco last missed a game.
• Flacco is already tied for 16th on the all-time playoff touchdown list. If he makes the playoffs this season (very possible) and throws two touchdowns (also possible), he will pass Jim Kelly and Steve Young. Ryan is tied for 40th on the playoff touchdown list. The pair came within 10 yards of meeting in the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, but the Falcons defense gave up tackling that January and has still not climbed back on the horse.
• As this graphic shows, Flacco and Ryan will earn a guaranteed $94 million combined from their current contracts. But if they went out to dinner together, they would probably go to a diner and order turkey club sandwiches.
Matty Ice and Joe Cool may be suburban Philly guys with plain-yogurt personalities, but they have proven that they are fascinating when facing a) the Buccaneers, b) a playoff opponent or c) each other. Tune in for the touchdowns. You can skip the post-game press conferences.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Falcons 20
Seahawks at Rams
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -7.5
So this is the way the Percy Harvin era ends: not quite with a bang, nor a whimper, but a semi-shocking Friday afternoon trade after just 55 touches in a mostly idle season-and-a-half in Seattle.
Last Sunday's offensive confusion can now be interpreted as the Seahawks offense crying for help. There were the Harvin screens to nowhere, of course—indicators that Darrell Bevell was tying himself in knots to get the ball to the team's designated playmaker. And then there were the following plays, which can be thought of as examples of what was about to go wrong and harrowing glimpses of what the Seahawks offense will look like without Harvin if the team does not rediscover conventionality.
Here's a little something Bevell unveiled near midfield in the fourth quarter of a 20-20 game near midfield. It's an option pitch to Brian Walters (19) a practice squad lifer from Cornell who is almost, but not quite, entirely unlike Harvin.
Here is what makes this play special, other than the fact that it is designed to get the ball in the hands of an Ivy League third-stringer: 1) It is run to the boundary (short) side of the field, where even Gale Sayers would have no room to maneuver; 2) the play begins with a long, slow, extra-loopy backfield motion by Walters, who nearly bumps into Marshawn Lynch before the snap (the entire defense has time to look across the formation and say, "Hmm, we should probably pay attention to that"); and 3) most of the offensive line blocks to the right, making it natural for all of the linebackers to flow that way.
Here's a first-quarter variation on the Bevell Triple Option of Bewilderment. Harvin is again enjoying a Gatorade, and the play is again run to the boundary side so the Cowboys can use the sideline as an extra defender.
Jermaine Kearse (15) is one of the best blocking receivers in the NFL, so it makes sense to toss the ball to him while 5'10" Doug Baldwin demonstrates his stay-outta-the-way blocking technique, right? The Cowboys defense actually bites on both the Lynch fake and Wilson's keeper threat; lucky for them the play was designed to get the football to a slow receiver in a confined space with no blocking.
"Whatever happened to Percy?" Thomas asked Sir Topham Hatt. Why, Figure 3 shows him in the backfield taking an inside handoff on 2nd-and-7 in the third quarter.
What's amazing about this play is that there is no screen-option gingerbread whatsoever to protect Harvin. No receiver flares out for a bubble screen. Wilson has never moved less after a shotgun handoff than he did after giving the ball to his injury-prone 184-pound playmaker up the gut against a pair of linebackers threatening the A-gap. It looked like Harvin exhaustion, a touch granted out of a sense of obligation.
Bevell will certainly scale back the pitch-and-screen wrinkles with Harvin gone. Baldwin and Kearse should get more opportunities to run conventional routes instead of constantly blocking and decoying. And maybe Lynch will take more handoffs than are faked to him. Bevell only recently became misdirection-happy, and the Seahawks offense can still perform at a high level as long as they avoid this, their most disastrous play of recent weeks:
Farewell, Harvin. The Super Bowl was magical, the potential stratospheric, but the fit never quite worked philosophically or economically. We would like to say you are in a far better place, but you know darn well we'd be lying.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Rams 16
Dolphins at Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bears -3
Joe Philbin calls it "Kodaking."
It's the strategy of calling a timeout when an opponent comes to the line in a critical situation. The defense can see the formation, then use the timeout to adjust. The opponent must either run the same play against the adjusted defense or select a different play.
Basketball coaches use Kodaking all the time: It's a great way to force the opponent to burn a late-game designed inbounds play. There are some smart times for NFL coaches to use Kodaking, too. A game-ending two-point conversion attempt? Good idea. Before a crucial onside kick? The opponent probably does not have many onside kick wrinkles, so this sounds like a great Kodak moment.
How about when the opponent faces 4th-and-10 with the clock running and 1:07 to play, has just nearly lost a fumble and needs a touchdown to win? Probably not a good idea. And how about in a goal line, final-seconds, do-or-die situation? Well, a timeout might be a great idea, assuming you use it to do something logical like take your linebacker out of coverage against a split-wide tight end.
You know what happened at the end of the Packers' loss last week. If you don't, Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald can break things down for you. Philbin explains Kodaking in that Herald article as if it is the next big strategic wrinkle that will take the NFL by storm.
Ahem. Coach Philbin: NO ONE USES KODAK CAMERAS ANYMORE. THAT TECHNOLOGY IS COMPLETELY OBSOLETE. KODAK FAILED TO KEEP UP WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT. YOUR PHILOSOPHY IS NAMED AFTER A TECHNICOLOGICAL DINOSAUR THAT NONE OF YOUR PLAYERS ARE EVEN OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER.
Philbin did not make it clear whether throwing a slow-developing pass to stop the clock on second down, then getting the yips and running up the middle on third down, is called "Eight-Tracking."
In short, Kodaking gave us nice bright colors—and the green of a Packers win; what a bummer. Joe Philbin had better be able to read the writing on the wall. Momma, please take his Kodaking away.
Saints at Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions -1
Saints lineman Cameron Jordan told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he spent the bye week enjoying some quality time with the next generation. "I hung out with the family, became the certified babysitter for the week for my sister's kid," he said. "It always puts a little birth control in you when you're dealing with a nine-month-old for two days by yourself."
What is it with the Saints and all the contraception talk? First, Drew Brees blabs at the end of camp about his plan to get a vasectomy during the Masters (so he has an excuse to lie around watching golf, of course). Now, Jordan is getting a little birth control "into" him. THAT IS NOT HOW IT WORKS FOR GUYS, CAMERON. The Saints news 'n' notes sound like a Planned Parenthood pamphlet. I haven't heard this much harping about contraception methods since Catholic Pre-Cana counseling.
On a slightly related note: Belated congratulations to Steve Jordan on becoming a grandpa. Jordan was the only Vikings tight end to not catch a pass last Sunday against the Lions. At least according to the play-by-play announcer.
This game marks a meeting of the league's top-rated defense with its lowest-rated defense, according to Football Outsiders. It's also the first meeting of Sean Payton and Jim Caldwell since Super Bowl XLIV. Payton has since been suspended and reinstated, lost to the Seahawks in the playoffs long before it was cool and has been yoked to Rob Ryan's boom-or-bust defense and a roster of players hoping to avoid a baby boom. Caldwell slipped out of Indianapolis during the Peyton Manning tear-jerker, rebuilt his reputation and won a Super Bowl by sparking a Ravens hot streak. He now gets to enjoy "franchise savior" accolades for telling Matthew Stafford to throw overhand and Ndamukong Suh to stop spearing the helpless. At least that onside kick worked out well for Payton.
Prediction: Lions 21, Saints 17
Panthers at Packers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -7.5
It's always fun to listen to the NFL fan-media-talk-show-blogosphere hive mind as it reacts to a tie game as if it was some kind of personal violation. Tie? A STINKIN' TIE? Better to lose by 30! Can't we do something about these stupid ties? We have to put up with FOUR of them in the last decade! Everybody has to make the "kiss your sister" joke, too, making every NFL blog in the nation read like William Faulkner for a week.
Ah, but there is something worse than playing for a tie: kicking a field goal when down by seven late in the fourth quarter. Did a blood vessel in your temple just burst? If a tie is like kissing your sister, what is losing by four points because you kicked a field goal and hoped to get a stop and a second drive? Bringing Aunt Eunice to the Junior Cotillion? It is, admittedly, a terrible tactic in most cases, but we do not have to react as if the head coach just keyed all our cars.
The Panthers played for a tie in overtime, and it kept them above .500. It may be a difference-maker in a weak division, where 9-6-1 could mean the playoffs while 9-7 won't come close to earning a Wild Card. The Packers kicked a field goal and put the game in Joe Philbin's hands, always a good idea, and then Aaron Rodgers' hands, always a great idea.
Sometimes, the best thing a team can do is something that most fans hate. Remember that when the Packers abandon the run midway through the first quarter.
Prediction: Packers 27, Panthers 17
Chiefs at Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers -4
There are not many compelling storylines entering this game: Brandon Flowers (groin) missed practice this week and may not play against the team that released him before the start of camp, and as buzzy storylines go, "Cornerback seeks revenge (not really)" does not move the needle in a week when Cowboys running backs are stealing toiletries.
But hey, the Royals are in the World Series for the first time since 1985! The Chiefs played the Chargers that year on the same day as Game 5 of the ALCS. Danny Jackson beat Jimmy Key and the Blue Jays 2-0 on October 13, 1985; the win cut the Blue Jays' edge to three games to two. Meanwhile, in San Diego, the Chiefs blew a 17-7 lead as Mark Hermann threw touchdown passes to Charlie Joiner and Eric Sievers for a 31-20 Chargers victory.
What a rip off: We go back 30 years for an anecdote and don't even get Dan Fouts (injured), Kellen Winslow (injured) or George Brett (0-for-3 with an RBI). It's been a long time since the Chiefs have taken a back seat to the Royals, so let's give baseball it's due, and the Chargers will get plenty of attention next week.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Chiefs 21
Titans at Redskins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins -7
You know what the Redskins haven't had in a long time? Like, literally weeks? A ridiculous quarterback controversy about benching the Next Great Franchise Savior in favor of Random Backup X.
"When Robert went down, everyone said Kirk was the guy," Brian Mitchell said on a Redskins postgame show, officially starting the snowball that was going to roll down the mountainside anyway. "And Kirk hasn't gotten the job done, just like Robert wasn't getting the job done. Well, why not move on to somebody else? … I don't see what the problem would be."
The problem would be that we have seen Colt McCoy play. The results include a 6-15 career record and a completion percentage and yards-per-attempt rates lower than Cousins'. We have also learned from a decade of football that the next guy on the Redskins bench cannot ever, ever play. Also, if none of your quarterbacks can do the job, it is probably a sign of a deeper problem that cannot be solved by switching to quarterbacks with even less talent and potential.
Mitchell has an ulterior motive, of course. He knows that if things get bad enough, he'll be the quarterback.
Prediction: Redskins 24, Titans 20
Browns at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns -5.5
With the Jaguars dead last in the NFL in categories most fans do not even know exist (Here's a good one: the Jaguars are worst in the NFL in net line-of-scrimmage per drive, starting their drives on the 22-yard line while opponents start on the 33-yard line. Also, last in points and yards per game), the Browns are likely to be 4-2 by Sunday afternoon.
The Browns have not started a season 4-2 since 2001. That was the era of Tim Couch, James Jackson and a nasty defense led by pass rusher Jamir Miller. The Browns then lost back-to-back overtime games after their bye, which launched Couch on a 16-interception second-half jag. The Browns dropped to 7-9 on the year. Miller got severely injured the next preseason and retired to start a potato chip company. That was the last season a Browns quarterback started all 16 games. The only Browns stories with happy endings were filmed in black and white, folks.
The Browns have been 3-3 as recently as last year; like the Bills, they know their way around an optimistic early season that goes kablooie. Sunday's Steelers win proved that Brian Hoyer is at his best when throwing 17 passes per game and letting his running backs and defense do all the work. The same could be said for Couch. If Karlos Dansby starts experimenting with sour cream and onion recipes, forget the won-loss record and severely temper your Browns enthusiasm.
Prediction: Browns 28, Jaguars 13
Vikings at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills -5
The last Vikings passing touchdown, a little rollout toss-and-run from Matt Cassel to Matt Asiata, occurred in the first quarter against the Patriots in Week 2, on September 14 at about 12:20 local time. Cassel, Christian Ponder and Teddy Bridgewater have thrown 172 passes and nine interceptions since, with Bridgewater at least running one in.
Norv Turner's gameplans have gone from conservative to arch-conservative to Doomsday Prepper; Turner appears to be using both Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson as decoys so he can develop the perfect Jairus Wright/Chase Ford passing attack. Fans lost their patience and booed when Asiata got stuffed for a loss of two on 2nd-and-10 in the fourth quarter when trailing by 17: If you are going to be cautious with your rookie quarterback, at least be cautious with dinks to Patterson or Jerrick McKinnon, not a guy who could be chased down from behind by the University of Minnesota mascot.
The Bills have changed owners and quarterbacks since the last Vikings touchdown pass, but Terry Pegula reassured fans that nothing will change in an inspiring all-caps letter. TODAY MARKS A HISTORIC DAY BOTH FOR OUR FAMILY AND FOR THE CITY WE LOVE. AS THE NEW OWNERS OF THE BUFFALO BILLS, IT'S WITH GREAT PRIVILEGE THAT WE CAN SAY TO ALL THE FANS: THE BILLS ARE HERE TO STAY. AND THEY WILL KEEP MAKING EXCITING MOVES IN THE OFFSEASON, LOOKING PRETTY GOOD IN SEPTEMBER, LOSING TO THE PATRIOTS IN EARLY AUTUMN AND FALLING COMPLETELY APART FOR THE REST OF YOUR NATURAL LIVES. BUT AT LEAST WE AREN'T MAKING YOU WATCH GAMES AT UNIVERSITY OF BUFFALO WHILE WE BUILD A STADIUM WITH TAXPAYER MONEY WE HELD YOUR WHOLE REGION OUT A 20TH FLOOR WINDOW TO EXTORT. YET. NOW ENJOY KYLE ORTON, WHO AT LEAST THROWS MORE THAN ONE TOUCHDOWN PER MONTH.
Prediction: Bills 19, Vikings 13
Cardinals at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -3.5
To make a rookie quarterback look good, you have to give him good field position and keep him out of third-and-long. It's as foolproof a formula as eating less and exercising to lose weight. Good field position and down-and-distance advantages are helpful for any quarterback, but veterans are paid eight figures to convert some 3rd-and-15s and lead 80-yard drives. Rookies need the training wheels.
After starting their average drive on the 23.72-yard line for four games (26th in the NFL and over three yards worse than league average), the Raiders gave Derek Carr the ball three times near midfield against the Chargers. He responded with two touchdowns. The Raiders also gave Carr eight third-down opportunities of seven or less yards—not 3rd-and-inches, but not blitz-the-waterboys territory either. He completed six passes, three for touchdowns.
Carr's 47-yard touchdown to Brice Butler came on 3rd-and-3 when the Raiders started their drive at the Chargers' 46-yard line. Defenders were pulled in tight to stop a short slant for first-down yardage, and Brice Butler was able to slice past them. It was a great play sparked by favorable conditions. Once Carr had to execute a comeback from deep in his own territory, the interceptions, fumbles, sacks and grounding penalties began to mount.
If it was easy to get the ball at midfield and avoid 3rd-and-10, every team would do it. Tony Sparano got a one-game boost by leaning on some unexpected playmakers, but Butler and Darren McFadden are only going to get you so far. Carr must now face an excellent secondary coached by one of the league's most unpredictable blitzers. There will be some 3rd-and-10s from the 20-yard line, and Carr will be challenged to take the next developmental step.
Prediction: Cardinals 22, Raiders 14
Texans at Steelers
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Steelers -3
There is a juicy rumor making the rounds that Ben Roethlisberger's too-chummy relationship with coordinator Todd Haley is the reason the Steelers offense is playing poorly. That's right, the Toddlisberger 'shippers are searching for the Goldilocks Zone of bromance once again:
Too Cold: Ben, I hate you more than I hate hotel furniture, so I will call 30 wide receiver screens per game.
Too Hot: That was a great racquetball game. Wanna binge-watch The Good Wife on Netflix after lunch? Oh, and I borrowed your toothbrush and antiperspirant. Say, I was thinking of handing off six trillion times until we trail by two touchdowns against the Browns.
Just Right: Hey man, I don't want to infringe on what you had with Bruce Arians. Let's just find some ways to get Antonio Brown and our playmakers the ball, so we can help our penalty-and-mistake prone defense and our poor punter, who cannot hold a field goal and sometimes kicks the ball nearly straight up into the air.
Does that "just right" sound like anything Todd Haley would say? Not even if you use your Billy Bob Thornton Sling Blade voice. Psychologists call close relationships between people like Haley and Big Ben folie a deux, and it often ends with both parties swearing that magical fairies sneak into team headquarters at night and replace their brilliant gameplans with handoffs to Will Johnson.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Texans 20
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Stats via Football Outsiders, unless noted.
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