NFL Predictions Week 6: Expert Consensus Projections

Some weeks I don't know why we even bother.

Week 5 was a shining example of what makes the NFL both incredibly exciting and equally unpredictable.

Five teams came back from double-digit deficits. The league's last two remaining undefeated teams weren't just beaten; they were beaten down.

There was plenty of excitement, but weeks where up is down and left is right don't make it one bit easier to correctly forecast how that week will play out.

However, that won't stop the intrepid group of Division and National Lead Writers at Bleacher Report from giving it a go.

With that in mind, here's a look at some Week 6 NFL predictions from the Bleacher Report brain trust.

Upset of the Week

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over Tennessee Titans (5 votes)

Frankly, it would be a pretty significant upset if we were able to get one of these right. With the exception of the Kansas City Chiefs blasting the New England Patriots in Week 4, our panel has had about as much luck picking upsets this year as the Jacksonville Jaguars have had winning football games.

It would appear our voters are banking on both to change this week.

While the Jaguars have improved since Blake Bortles took over at quarterback, the Titans have been screaming in the opposite direction since pounding the Chiefs in Week 1.

The team hit rock bottom in squandering a 25-point lead at home to the Cleveland Browns in Week 5, but head coach Ken Whisenhunt insisted to The Associated Press (via Fox Sports) that the sky is not falling in Nashville:

"

Are we frustrated that we're not better, we're not playing better football or we haven't had more success? Sure. Everybody wants to win. That's what this business is all about. I feel like our guys believe that what we're doing, (and) we're doing it the right way.

"

After losing four straight and with Charlie Whitehurst the likely starter at quarterback when the Titans host the Jags on Sunday, fans at LP Field may want to wear hard hats anyway.

You know, just in case.

Others receiving votes: Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Detroit Lions (3 votes), Washington Redskins (+4) over Arizona Cardinals (2 votes), Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Buffalo Bills (+3) over New England Patriots (1 vote), Miami Dolphins (+3) over Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

Over/Under: 3 Combined Touchdowns in Jaguars/Titans Games

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winner: Over (14 votes)

On one hand, this may seem like a stupid question.

After all, if there's one thing the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have been in 2014, it's offensive.

Offensive to watch. Offensive to the season ticket holders who plunked down a fat chunk of change for tickets to the NFL equivalent of waterboarding.

Hey, the Jaguars' mascot even managed to offend, well, just about everybody.

Still, despite the fact that the Titans and Jaguars each rank 29th or lower in the NFL in points scored per game, all but one of our experts believes that the two hapless clubs will combine for at least three touchdowns in Sunday's game.  

That lone dissenting vote came courtesy of yours truly, as I have a hard time imagining anything remotely resembling "good" happening in this slopfest.

Has an NFL game ever ended in a 0-0 tie? We may be revisiting that question Monday.

Blowout of the Week

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Winner: San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (8 votes)

There are two leading candidates for blowout of the week in Week 6, and each involves an AFC West team that looks set to drop the hammer on the road.

The Denver Broncos are headed east to play a floundering New York Jets team in the biggest mismatch at quarterback since Bart Starr dueled with Vinnie from the parking lot in a 1965 game.

OK, so I may have made that up, but you get the gist.

However, that pasting in the making wasn't our leading vote-getter.

This week's winner involves the team that just waxed the aforementioned Jets 31-0, a team that has won four straight games behind the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Philip Rivers.

On Sunday, the San Diego Chargers head up the coast to face an Oakland Raiders team that's once again become a punch line in 2014.

A grand total of zero wins? Check.

A struggling offense and porous defense? Check and check.

Interim head coach Tony Sparano isn't laughing. As Dan Hanzus of NFL.com reports, after taking over for the fired Dennis Allen, Sparano buried a football that symbolized the first month of the 2014 season on Oakland's practice field:

"

"What this ball represents and what this hole represents are the first four games of the season, the first quarter of our season," Sparano said before dropping the ball into the hole. "Here's your shovel, here's your tool and those four games are over with. And we're about ready to go to work here. Everybody understand that?"

"

The fact that nine players tried to climb in the hole with the ball tells you just about everything you need to know about the 2014 Raiders.

Others receiving votes: Denver Broncos over New York Jets (6 votes), Cincinnati Bengals over Carolina Panthers (1 vote)

Mismatch of the Week

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Winner: Some variation of the Denver Broncos offense against the New York Jets (6 votes)

The largest single vote-getter this week was San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers against the Oakland Raiders defense, but there were even more writers who went with slight variations on a very similar theme.

That theme is that Peyton Manning and the Denver offense are about to have a field day against the New York Jets.

For three writers, it was Manning's matchup with an overmatched Jets secondary.

One more went with Manning vs. Geno Smith, a mismatch on par with Mike Tyson vs. Michael Spinks.

Two more went with that New York secondary's odds of covering the Denver pass-catchers, or as NFL National Lead Writer Michael Schottey put it, "Demaryius Thomas vs. whichever poor sap the Jets put on him."

The details may be slightly different, but the crux of the message is the same.

New York head coach Rex Ryan is going to be one step closer to unemployment by the time Monday morning rolls around.

Others receiving votes: Philip Rivers vs. Oakland Raiders defense (3 votes), Denver Broncos defense vs. New York Jets offense (2 votes), Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers vs. Cleveland Browns defensive backs (2 votes), Antonio Gates vs. Oakland Raiders defense (1 vote), Seattle Seahawks run game vs. Dallas Cowboys front seven (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Demaryius Thomas or All Jets Wide Receivers Combined

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Winner: New York Jets wide receivers (12 votes)

OK, one more, and then we'll desist from piling on the NFL's punching bags.

In many respects, this seems a foolish question. Sure, Demaryius Thomas is a Pro Bowl wide receiver, but he can't really be expected to outgain the entire Jets receiving corps, a stable that includes former teammate Eric Decker.

I mean, let's get real. That hasn't happened in a game in almost a week!

Last week against the Arizona Cardinals, Thomas exploded for a franchise-record 226 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, every wide receiver on the Jets roster combined for 45 yards on six grabs.

Seriously.

However, that was with Decker on the shelf—who is expected to play, per Daryl Slater of NJ.com—and surprisingly that was Thomas' first 100-yard game of the season.

Add those factors together, and 80 percent of our voters think that Gang Green will gang up and outdo Thomas in Week 6.

Either that, or they just feel sorry for the Jets, which is understandable.

Sleeper QB Performance

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Winner: Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (3 votes)

The nominees for the breakout quarterback of Week 6 ran the gamut. Nine players received at least one vote, from grizzled veterans to rookies, with a pair of Super Bowl winners thrown in for good measure.

However, this week's winner is a player who's making a name for himself as the king of the comeback.

This past Sunday, Cleveland's Brian Hoyer led the biggest road comeback in NFL history, rallying the Browns from 25 down to stun the Titans in Nashville.

To no one's surprise, Hoyer was feeling pretty good about that game while speaking with Mary Kay Cabot of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:

"

Everything I've gone through in the past year, I want to enjoy it. I want to go out and have fun. You never know when it's going to be taken away from you. To celebrate a victory with my teammates, I don't care how goofy I look.

"

Hoyer, who tore his ACL last year, will get a chance to exact some revenge in Week 6 for a comeback that came up just short.

Back in Week 1, the Browns came all the way back from a 27-3 halftime deficit to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers, only to see a late field goal give the Steelers a 30-27 win in the Steel City.

The two teams meet again Sunday in Cleveland, and at least three of our voters think Hoyer will torch Pittsburgh's secondary.

Others receiving votes: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Eli Manning, New York Giants (2 votes), Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes), Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (1 vote), Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Teddy Bridgewater or Matthew Stafford

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Winner: Matthew Stafford (13 votes)

Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater, who missed last week's Thursday night loss to the Green Bay Packers with a sprained ankle, came up just short as this week's sleeper quarterback, garnering a pair of votes.

This week, Bridgewater and the Vikings play host to the division-leading Lions, and the rookie told ESPN.com's Ben Goessling he will absolutely be on the field.

"I've been able to spend the majority of my time in the training room, and I credit those guys with just helping me and pushing me to get back to 100 percent," Bridgewater said.

In the interest of full disclosure, I make up the game-specific predictions each week, so any vitriol you'd wish to unleash at me for having the gall to say that Bridgewater could outproduce a player with a 5,000-yard passing season on his resume is mine and mine alone.

However, before you start throwing tomatoes at the screen (which, frankly, is just silly), consider this: In Bridgewater's first career start two weeks ago, he threw for 317 yards in a win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Meanwhile, Stafford hasn't topped 300 passing yards since Week 1, and it's a real possibility Calvin Johnson's balky ankle will leave the superstar wideout a spectator on Sunday.

Most of my colleagues apparently think I blew a gasket, but that's OK.

Maybe I did.

Sleeper RB Performance

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Winner: Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers (4 votes)

This is either a prediction of continued success, or some hardcore 20-20 hindsight. 

After all, rookie running back Branden Oliver already had his coming-out party for the San Diego Chargers, gaining 182 total yards and scoring two touchdowns against the New York Jets' top-ranked run defense last week.

It was a performance that caught everyone off guard. Everyone, that is, except Oliver's college teammate Khalil Mack, according to Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle:

"

I wasn’t surprised when I saw that at all. It was only practice in college, but he is the best running back I ever played against in my life. He’s quick, can lower his shoulder, can catch and can block. I got the secret on how to stop him. I was his roommate.

"

Mack may think the Raiders and their 31st-ranked run defense will shut down Oliver on Sunday, but much like with his lack of surprise about Oliver's big day, Mack's flying solo there.

Others receiving votes: Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (3 votes), Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills (2 votes), Darrin Reaves, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins (1 vote), Andre Williams, New York Giants (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: LeSean McCoy or Andre Williams

MR/Associated Press

Winner: LeSean McCoy (12 votes)

Sunday night's showcase game features a battle for a potential share of first place in the NFC East between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles.

It will also be yet another opportunity for Eagles running back LeSean McCoy, who led the NFL in rushing last year, to get going in 2014.

To this point in the season, McCoy has yet to gain 100 rushing yards in a game. The sixth-year veteran is averaging a dismal 2.9 yards per carry on the season.

Things have gotten so bad that McCoy is defending himself against claims that he took himself out of last week's win over the St. Louis Rams. McCoy told Sheil Kapadia of Philadelphia magazine:

"

What happened was after the game, they asked me do I take myself out when Darren [Sproles] comes in the game, yeah. The majority of the times, I take myself, I’m tired, I come out. Sproles can take over and do his thing, and we’re confident in him to do that. But the last drive, [running backs coach] Duce [Staley] pulled me out.

"

McCoy may be struggling mightily so far this year, but our experts aren't ready to go so far as to predict he'll be outgained on the ground by rookie Andre Williams, who will start for the Giants in place of the injured Rashad Jennings.

Sleeper WR Performance

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Winner: Odell Beckham, New York Giants (4 votes)

Things didn't get off to the best of starts for rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham with the New York Giants. A hamstring injury cost Beckham much of the summer and the first four games of the season, which led some to mutter the "b" word.

No, not that. Geez. Bust.

Those people have shut up now, quieted by Beckham's four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in his Giants debut.

It isn't just the Giants who are raving about Beckham's performance either. Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly told Paul Schwartz of the New York Post that he's been impressed by Beckham's skills for some time:

"

He is athletic, he can get in and out of cuts, he is very sudden, he’s got outstanding hands, he shows it not only as a receiver but as a returner. He showed in college he can make tough catches, we were real high on him, he never got to where we were [at No. 26], but we were very high on him coming out.

"

A quartet of writers here at Bleacher Report are on the Beckham bandwagon as well.

Others receiving votes: Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (3 votes), Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes), Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (1 vote), Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Winner: Tim Wright, New England Patriots (4 votes)

The New England Patriots just might be on to something.

In last week's big win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Pats used more of the two-tight end sets that were a staple of the team's offense in recent years, pairing Rob Gronkowski with newcomer Tim Wright.

The Bengals had no answer, with Wright reeling in five catches for 85 yards and a score despite playing just 19 snaps.

New England head coach Bill Belichick told Lee Schechter of ESPN Boston that he's seen progress since Wright joined the team, while conceding that there's still work to be done:

"

[Wright], like all of us, needs to keep working on that, needs to work on his blocking -- in the passing game, the run game, pass protection. He’s a second-year player who is really a conversion from another position in college. And there’s a lot of things he can work on. He works hard. Nobody works harder than Tim. He spends extra time in the classroom, extra time on the field. Works hard on the field. He does as much as he can do. Is he there yet? No. I’d say he is gaining on it steadily.

"

Our panelists expect Wright to continue trending upward when the Patriots travel to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday with first place in the AFC East on the line.

Others receiving votes: Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (3 votes), Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (2 votes), Garrett Graham, Houston Texans (2 votes), Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (6 votes)

Like there was any doubt.

For the sixth time in as many weeks, Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt is the pick of our panel for the top defensive performance of the week.

I've just about run out of superlatives to describe just how dominant Watt is on the football field. Precious few defensive players in the NFL can significantly alter how opponents approach a game plan.

As Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck told Deepi Sidhu of the Texans' website, Watt is one of them:

"

He’s a freak. He’s big, he’s fast, he makes plays. Obviously, he made one heck of an interception return for touchdown. He does a lot of things very, very well. At the same time, I think we have a bunch of good players up front that are up for the challenge and ready to against him but we do have the utmost respect for how he plays football. He does it the right way. It’s always fun to go against him because it’s a great challenge for guys.

"

We'll see if Luck's still in a complimentary mood after running for his life all night Thursday.

Others receiving votes: Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills (2 votes), Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Antoine Bethea, SS, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Vontaze Burfict, OLB, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Chris Harris, CB, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), Jurrell Casey, DE, Tennessee Titans (1 vote), Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Washington Redskins (1 vote)

Over/Under: J.J. Watt 1.5 Sacks vs. Colts

J Patrick Schneider/Associated Press

Winner: Under (9 votes)

Given that J.J. Watt has gotten more run in this column this season than any player in the NFL, it's only fitting that we wrap things up this week with a stat prediction involving Thursday's big battle in the AFC South.

With that said, given that Watt was the pick for the week's best defensive performance, it's a little surprising that nearly two-thirds of our writers expect the fourth-year pro to come in under 1.5 sacks when the Texans host the Indianapolis Colts.

It may seem like a tall order, but bear this in mind. In six career starts against the Colts, Watt has tallied five sacks, including a 10-tackle, three-sack explosion against them in December of 2012.

That game, like Thursday's, was played in NRG Stadium.