Fantasy Football Week 6: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

This is usually a space we use to bemoan the sadness and despair from the week that was, hoping beyond hope that the upcoming NFL week is kinder to our fantasy teams. But we really don't need one of those postmortems after Week 5.      

This Sunday was by far the kindest to fantasy stars of the 2014 season. Peyton Manning is back to single-handedly winning matchups. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are back to overly enthusiastically embracing one another in the end zone to the point you're afraid one will get hurt. Drew Brees played at home, so he was awesome.

Outside Calvin Johnson-sized disappointments and a few notable injuries—mostly the cost of doing business in the NFL—it's hard to imagine a scenario in which things went smoother.

Which, of course, means all heck is about to break loose this week. Yes, heck. The other word's tamer, more inherently funny cousin. With only two teams on bye again (New Orleans and Kansas City), we'll have 15 games to parse through in the coming days.

Let's get started with an early attempt at figuring out this whole fantasy football thing. 

Thursday, Oct. 9	Time (ET)
Sunday, Oct. 12	Time (ET)
Monday, Oct. 13	Time (ET)
Bye Week Teams
Indianapolis at Houston	8:25 p.m.
Jacksonville at Tennessee	1 p.m.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.
Denver at NY Jets	1 p.m.
Detroit at Minnesota	1 p.m.
New England at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Carolina at Cincinnati	1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Miami	1 p.m.
San Diego at Oakland	4:05 p.m.
Chicago at Atlanta	4:25 p.m.
Dallas at Seattle	4:25 p.m.
Washington at Arizona	4:25 p.m.
NY Giants at Philadelphia	8:30 p.m.
San Francisco at St. Louis	8:30 p.m.
Kansas City	New Orleans

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 6 or are on the schedule for Monday night.)

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Peyton Manning, DEN	25 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	22 Points
3	Andrew Luck, IND	22 Points
4	Matt Ryan, ATL	21 Points
5	Philip Rivers, SD	20 Points
6	Jay Cutler, CHI	18 Points
7	Russell Wilson, SEA	17 Points
8	Nick Foles, PHI	17 Points
9	Eli Manning, NYG	16 Points
10	Colin Kaepernick, SF	16 Points
11	Andy Dalton, CIN	16 Points
12	Cam Newton, CAR	16 Points
13	Tom Brady, NE	15 Points
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	15 Points
15	Joe Flacco, BAL	15 Points
16	Tony Romo, DAL	14 Points
17	Kirk Cousins, WAS	14 Points
18	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	14 Points
19	Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	13 Points
20	Brian Hoyer, CLE	12 Points

Top Dog: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

I'm beginning to think this whole professional football thing is going to work out. The jury is still out, but the kid is getting there. Manning on Sunday became the second quarterback in NFL history to hit the 500-touchdown mark, doing so in style as part of a 479-yard, four-touchdown outing.

The five-time league MVP just keeps chugging along. The passes are almost never beautiful at this rate, yet they're on target to streaking receivers or thrown perfectly over the top or desperately flung out of bounds as a defender comes charging. Manning's brilliance remains in his intelligence, and he gets to play a Jets team that is imploding at the moment.

This is going to get ugly. Fast.

Sleeper: Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns

USA TODAY Sports

[Sounds airhorn, grabs megaphone] TWO QUARTERBACK LEAGUE ONLY ALERT! T-W-O! 

Anyway. Speaking of football, Brian Hoyer has proven he's not so terrible at it after all. Though rarely spectacular, Hoyer has thrown for six touchdowns against a single interception and has lent a steady hand to the Cleveland offense. We can obviously write off the Browns' 25-point comeback for the (thrilling) fluke it was, but Hoyer has had enough success this season that he deserves attention.

The Browns put up 27 points when they visited Pittsburgh in Week 1. The Steelers' pass defense tops out somewhere around OK, having had the good fortune of not going against a top-10 signal-caller all year. Hoyer won't be confused with a Pro Bowl-caliber player; I merely prefer him to the likes of Austin Davis this week, whom many may be tempted to start after his two straight solid performances. 

Beware: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

USA TODAY Sports

Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reported Calvin Johnson could miss multiple weeks after re-injuring his ankle in Sunday's loss to Buffalo. That is...not good for Matthew Stafford. Johnson has been absent for three games where Stafford has been the Lions' quarterback. All have gone dreadfully.

Detroit scored 22 points in Johnson's two missed games last season. Stafford's only other game without his top wideout came as a rookie. Johnson commands such intense coverage that he opens up the field for surrounding talent, and is so good that Stafford can just throw the ball up when nothing is going on underneath.

It's already been a bit of a disappointing season for Stafford, who seemingly established himself among elite fantasy options coming into 2014. He has a fine matchup this week with Minnesota; I'm just not willing to play him without Calvin until proven wrong.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	19 Points
2	Matt Forte, CHI	19 Points
3	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	18 Points
4	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	18 Points
5	Arian Foster, HOU	16 Points
6	Andre Ellington, ARI	15 Points
7	Giovani Bernard, CIN	15 Points
8	LeSean McCoy, PHI	14 Points
9	Frank Gore, SF	14 Points
10	Eddie Lacy, GB	13 Points
11	Ben Tate, CLE	12 Points
12	Andre Williams, NYG	12 Points
13	Ronnie Hillman, DEN	11 Points
14	Alfred Morris, WAS	11 Points
15	Branden Oliver, SD	10 Points
16	Lamar Miller, MIA	10 Points
17	Joique Bell, DET	9 Points
18	Ahmad Bradshaw, IND	9 Points
19	Chris Ivory, NYJ	9 Points
20	Matt Asiata, MIN	8 Points
21	Doug Martin, TB	8 Points
22	Steven Jackson, ATL	7 Points
23	Benny Cunningham, STL	7 Points
24	Trent Richardson, IND	6 Points
25	C.J. Spiller, BUF	6 Points
26	Darren Sproles, PHI	6 Points
27	Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL	5 Points
28	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5 Points
29	Bishop Sankey, TEN	5 Points
30	Shane Vereen, NE	4 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Much like the Cowboys, fantasy owners have to keep riding Murray until his wheels fall off. Which frankly isn't very long if he keeps his current pace. Murray has carried the ball 130 times through the first five weeks. That puts him on pace to match Larry Johnson's single-season mark from 2006.

Keep in mind that last season LeSean McCoy led the NFL with 314 carries. McCoy is currently second in carries with 94, putting him on pace to be more than 100 behind Murray by season's end.

The Cowboys can't keep grinding Murray into the ground. He's never played more than eight consecutive games as a pro, and Jason Garrett seems to be tempting fate by sending him plowing into the line time and again. Joseph Randle should and will be more a part of the offense the remainder of the season.

But until that inevitability translates to raw data, Murray is a no-brainer.

Sleeper: Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

There were a pile of running back injuries Sunday, so we could really highlight any of the young players about to get their chance. We'll go with Hillman in part because I'm beginning to think he keeps this job long-term.

Montee Ball had been awful all season before going down with a groin injury, which NFL.com's Ian Rapoport notes could be "major." He was averaging 3.1 yards per carry, more than a yard-and-a-half less than his rookie season number. While 55 carries isn't exactly a huge data sample and Ball got better as 2013 went along, Hillman was clearly better from the moment he entered the game Sunday.

The San Diego State product rushed for 64 yards on 15 carries, hitting holes with conviction and wiggling his way for extra yards. At 5'10" and 195 pounds, it's unlikely Hillman becomes a Murray-level workhorse but he has a chance to emerge as an RB2.

Beware: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Spiller was just about the only Bills player who did not benefit from Kyle Orton's insertion to the starting lineup. He carried the ball 10 times for eight yards, adding a shrug-worthy 25 yards on three receptions. The free-agent-to-be is averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and is yet to score on the ground.

With the ageless Fred Jackson more effective in both offensive facets, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get the bulk of the work going forward. Regardless, you can't feel comfortable starting Spiller in any format. At this point, any chances of him replicating his magical 2012 campaign are basically dead.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Julio Jones, ATL	16 Points
2	Antonio Brown, PIT	16 Points
3	A.J. Green, CIN	16 Points
4	Jordy Nelson, GB	15 Points
5	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	15 Points
6	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	13 Points
7	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	13 Points
8	Dez Bryant, DAL	12 Points
9	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	12 Points
10	Steve Smith, BAL	11 Points
11	Randall Cobb, GB	11 Points
12	Brandon Marshall, CHI	10 Points
13	Andre Johnson, HOU	9 Points
14	T.Y. Hilton, IND	9 Points
15	Pierre Garcon, WAS	9 Points
16	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	9 Points
17	Victor Cruz, NYG	8 Points
18	Golden Tate, DET	8 Points
19	Reggie Wayne, IND	8 Points
20	Sammy Watkins, BUF	8 Points
21	Vincent Jackson, TB	8 Points
22	Brian Quick, STL	7 Points
23	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	7 Points
24	Percy Harvin, SEA	7 Points
25	Julian Edelman, NE	7 Points
26	Mike Wallace, MIA	6 Points
27	Roddy White, ATL	6 Points
28	Michael Floyd, ARI	6 Points
29	Wes Welker, DEN	6 Points
30	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	6 Points
31	Eddie Royal, SD	6 Points
32	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	6 Points
33	Michael Crabtree, SF	6 Points
34	James Jones, OAK	5 Points
35	Mohamed Sanu, CIN	5 Points
36	Terrance Williams, DAL	5 Points
37	Kendall Wright, TEN	5 Points
38	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	5 Points
39	DeSean Jackson, WAS	5 Points
40	Keenan Allen, SD	4 Points

Top Dog: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

Jones leads the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and is tied for the lead in targets*. Despite facing disguised coverages and double-teams designed to stop him from winning downfield battles, Jones has maintained a high performance level by a combination of volume and his emergence as an intelligent route-runner. 

He's also been helped by sheer necessity. All 32 of Roddy White's years are beginning to show and Matt Ryan's third favorite target this season has been Devin Hester, who is in year eleventy billion of his conversion to an above-average pass-catcher. 

Until Harry Douglas gets back on the field, Jones is going to see double-digit targets every week.

(*An aside: Jones is tied with Jeremy Maclin for the lead in targets. Maclin has 25 receptions. While many of those targets were of the downfield variety, Nick Foles has been largely an inaccurate mess this season. Imagine what Maclin would be doing with a better quarterback in this system.)

Sleeper: Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Watkins wasn't dropped in many leagues—roughly three percent, per ESPN.com—but he's perhaps the best buy-low candidate in football. With EJ Manuel spraying passes yards beyond his reach, Watkins looked to be headed for a disappointing rookie season. He had one solid outing against Miami and then didn't top 31 yards in his other three games.

One game with Orton and I'm already buying in for the rest of the season. Watkins caught seven passes on a season-high 12 targets for 87 yards in Buffalo's comeback win over the Lions. Though none of those passes was particularly explosive—Watkins' long play was 22 yards—the most important thing is that they were somewhere within his general vicinity.

Watkins was not unproductive because he was failing to get open. He'd averaged nearly 10 targets per game over the previous three weeks and flashed the talent that convinced Buffalo it'd be worth mortgaging a first-round pick in a draft that will likely include Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Orton's arrival should make that decision look like less of a nightmare.

Beware: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

It's not happening this season. Allen leads the Chargers in targets but is clearly part of a three-man rotation with Antonio Gates and Eddie Royal as the apple of Philip Rivers' eye. The superstar-level breakout that some were hoping for was always a bit strange to me—Allen in an ideal situation is a top-end second wide receiver—and his inability to create separation has only served as confirmation.

In four of five games Allen's longest reception is for less than 15 yards. There are going to be occasional good games like he had against Jacksonville, but Allen is bordering on droppable in standard formats.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Julius Thomas, DEN	15 Points
2	Rob Gronkowski, NE	12 Points
3	Greg Olsen, CAR	8 Points
4	Delanie Walker, TEN	7 Points
5	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
6	Antonio Gates, SD	6 Points
7	Vernon Davis, SF	6 Points
8	Jordan Cameron, CLE	6 Points
9	Jordan Reed, WAS	5 Points
10	Larry Donnell, NYG	5 Points
11	Jason Witten, DAL	5 Points
12	Heath Miller, PIT	5 Points
13	Dwayne Allen, IND	5 Points
14	Jared Cook, STL	4 Points
15	Zach Ertz, PHI	4 Points

Top Dog: Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos

No Jimmy Graham this week, so no Jimmy Graham Nonsense Theatre. Which I guess is all well and good considering what Thomas is doing to opposing defenses this season is complete nonsense. The Broncos tight end leads the NFL with seven touchdown receptions despite playing one fewer game than more than three-quarters of the league.

Rob Gronkowski set the single-season touchdown record for a tight end with 17 in 2011. It feels like that's a low water mark for Thomas the rest of the season. Barring an injury to himself or Manning, this is something to watch the rest of the way.

Sleeper: Larry Donnell, New York Giants

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

"I tried to warn you," he said, patting himself on the back with such vigor it creates an echoing thud.

A week after having the first three-touchdown game for a Giants tight end since before electricity was invented (1962), Donnell was the biggest fantasy bust of Week 5. He put up a solid goose egg in the receptions and targets departments, as Eli Manning spread the ball around the field to anyone who does not play the tight end position.

This, of course, should be expected. You ride the wave as it's happening; you don't hop on for its inevitable crash. Donnell is not going to produce at a high level every week. Manning's history of targeting tight ends is up and down, and the Giants have enough receivers who are solid underneath that he's not a necessary check-down target.

That said, last week changes nothing about Donnell's value. He's still a fine third-tier tight end, a guy who will either score a touchdown and make you happy or not score and make you throw your remote. 

Beware: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Remember when Gates opened the season with 13 catches for 177 yards and three touchdowns in the first two weeks? Remember when he followed that up with four receptions for 38 yards without a score the subsequent two Sundays? Rememb—OK, you get the narrative device by now.

Gates was good Sunday. He had his second multi-touchdown game of the season and was second on the team in targets. These games are going to occasionally happen. He's a must-start this week in Oakland. Just don't be surprised when the disappointments come when they're least expected.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Denver Broncos	at New York Jets	15 Points
2	Baltimore Ravens	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13 Points
3	New England Patriots	at Buffalo Bills	13 Points
4	Tennessee Titans	vs. Jacksonville Jaguars	12 Points
5	Cincinnati Bengals	vs. Carolina Panthers	12 Points
6	San Diego Chargers	at Oakland Raiders	11 Points
7	Arizona Cardinals	vs. Washington	9 Points
8	San Francisco 49ers	at St. Louis Rams	9 Points
9	Seattle Seahawks	vs. Dallas Cowboys	8 Points
10	Green Bay Packers	at Miami Dolphins	7 Points
11	Detroit Lions	at Minnesota Vikings	7 Points
12	Minnesota Vikings	vs. Detroit Lions	6 Points
13	Pittsburgh Steelers	at Cleveland Browns	6 Points
14	Washington	at Arizona Cardinals	6 Points
15	Houston Texans	vs. Indianapolis Colts	5 Points

Top Dog: Denver Broncos

I would call the Jets a dumpster fire, but that feels like an insult to the big metal cans.

The Jets, meanwhile, are an unlivable toxic wasteland. Their quarterback duo may be the worst in football. Any dreams nostalgic Madden NFL 2004 fans had of Michael Vick saving the day were laid to waste Sunday, when the former Pro Bowler inspired the most appropriate depressing sports tweet in history:

"

Watching Vick is like watching Mike Tyson ot Tiger Woods. Get excited to see what you used to see and then reminded you won't see it at all.

— Spike Eskin (@SpikeEskin) October 5, 2014"

Geno Smith retains his starting job for another week, which, well, yay. The Broncos might not even have to play their starters in the second half at this rate.

Sleeper: Tennessee Titans

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Blake Bortles has thrown 97 NFL passes. Six of those have gone to the other team. That is by far the highest interception rate among qualifying quarterbacks, nearly two percent worse than anyone who will be taking snaps this week.

Part of that is on Bortles, whose reads are still a little slow and whose decision-making skills could use a little work. The rest of that is on the Jaguars franchise, first for surrounding him with a treasure trove of terribleness and second for abandoning their plan to bring him along slowly two games into the season. Bortles is light years better than Chad Henne, but he's not ready to be an NFL starter yet.

The Titans just kind of have the good fortune of playing against this offense.

Beware: Tennessee Titans

Please keep in mind that these are the same Titans who allowed the Cleveland Browns to come back from 25 points down to beat them in Week 5. The risk one takes when trusting such a team is inherent.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Brandon McManus, DEN	11 Points
3	Justin Tucker, BAL	11 Points
4	Cody Parkey, PHI	11 Points
5	Phil Dawson, SF	10 Points
6	Matt Bryant, ATL	10 Points
7	Steven Hauschka, SEA	10 Points
8	Mason Crosby, GB	9 Points
9	Adam Vinatieri, IND	9 Points
10	Dan Bailey, DAL	9 Points
11	Blair Walsh, MIN	8 Points
12	Robbie Gould, CHI	8 Points
13	Chandler Catanzaro, ARI	7 Points
14	Nick Novak, SD	7 Points
15	Dan Carpenter, BUF	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

Gostkowski scored more points than Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Jamaal Charles and Martellus Bennett combined Sunday. Isn't fantasy football grand?

Sleeper: Matt Prater, Free Agent

Given the abhorrent kicking we've seen in certain places (hi Detroit!), Prater's time on the street should probably end at some point this week. The former Broncos kicker hit 96.2 percent of his field goals in 2013, including seven from 50 or more yards out. He'll work out for the Lions on Tuesday, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

If he wins the Detroit job, which offers the comfort of an indoor home field, Prater becomes a top-10 guy the rest of the way.

Beware: Whoever the Lions Pick to Play Kicker

That place has been cursed since the moment Jason Hanson left. Remember the David Akers era last season? Noooooot pretty.

Week 3 Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or fewer of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Andre Williams	RB	New York Giants	36.4%
Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	21.8%
Benny Cunningham	RB	St. Louis Rams	1.4%
Ronnie Hillman	RB	Denver Broncos	0.9%
Branden Oliver	RB	San Diego Chargers	0.4%
Brian Quick	WR	St. Louis Rams	35.6%
Andrew Hawkins	WR	Cleveland Browns	12.6%
Mohamed Sanu	WR	Cincinnati Bengals	6.8%
Dwayne Allen	TE	Indianapolis Colts	11.6%

Grab Him Now: Brian Quick (WR, St. Louis Rams)

Quick has been a consistent, productive target under the radar all season. He ranks ninth in receiving yards per game, has been targeted nine times in three of St. Louis' four contests and has gotten into the end zone in consecutive games. 

The touchdowns are going to be hit and miss, but Quick is clearly Austin Davis' top wideout. He has been targeted 14 more times than any other Rams wide receiver and has had 60 or more yards in every game thus far. At this point Quick is a near-guarantee for six points per week with the possibility of more if he gets in the end zone.

At the very least he's an every-week flex option—if not a low-end WR2.

Stash Them While You Can: Ronnie Hillman (RB, Denver Broncos); Branden Oliver (RB, San Diego Chargers)

Of the handful of running backs worth rostering in Week 6, Hillman and Oliver are the likeliest to have long-term value.

Williams will be blocked by Rashad Jennings, who was having a solid season before suffering a sprained MCL this week, per Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper. Justin Forsett is who he is at this point—a valuable commodity in PPR leagues who will be hit or miss in standard formats. The Rams have been messing with fantasy owners' heads all season with their running back situation.

Oliver and Hillman have a real chance to ignite dormant ground games. Oliver is averaging two full yards per carry more than the Chargers' team average. Ryan Mathews is still working his way back from a knee injury and will "likely" miss the next two weeks, per Kevin Acey of U-T San Diego. The 5'7" back is probably too small to land a 20-carry-per-week gig, but he has been a revelation the past two weeks and shined after Donald Brown suffered a concussion in Week 5, per Acey.

Hillman we already covered.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Robert Griffin III	QB	Washington	79.9%
Toby Gerhart	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars	92.0%
Chris Johnson	RB	New York Jets	94.0%
Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings	85.1%
Donald Brown	RB	San Diego Chargers	88.2%
Ray Rice	RB	Free Agent	70.3%
Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers	69.1%
LeGarrette Blount	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers	83.9%
Maurice Jones Drew	RB	Oakland Raiders	87.4%
Danny Amendola	WR	New England Patriots	82.9%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	85.6%
Hakeem Nicks	WR	Tennessee Titans	73.6%
Dennis Pitta	TE	Baltimore Ravens	64.7%
Kyle Rudolph	TE	Minnesota Vikings	63.7%

Top Drop of the Week: Toby Gerhart (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars)

Toby Gerhart is under contract for a $2.5 million base salary and $3 million cap number against only $500,000 in dead money for next season, per Spotrac. The lady who thought it was an intelligent idea to wear her pants in the Jaguars' pool Sunday has a better chance of making $2.5 million in 2015 than Toby Gerhart.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The former Stanford star is averaging 2.6 yards on his 46 carries and has not broken a gain longer than 13 yards. Pro Football Focus' run rating (subscription required) ranks Gerhart dead last among the 53 running backs who have taken 25 percent or more of his team's snaps so far. 

Oh, what's that? You'd like me to go further? OK, where does Gerhart rank among the 117 players who have taken a single snap at running back in 2014? Last. Again.

The flashes of competency Gerhart showed as Adrian Peterson's backup in Minnesota are nowhere to be found. Jacksonville split its 11 carries by running backs essentially right down the middle between Denard Robinson, Gerhart and Storm Johnson against the Steelers—a trend I expect to continue. Even if Gerhart by some miracle ascends to his expected workhorse role, he's already proven incapable of being effective.

It's time to stop crossing your fingers that he'll bounce back.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter