NFL Power Rankings: Week 4 Standings Based on Latest Super Bowl Odds
If we take the lessons of September and apply them to an entire NFL season, it's going to be an incredible season. Think about the games we have seen already and how they played out, then remember we have 14 weeks left to go.
With that constant change facing all 32 teams, it is difficult to set odds for who is going to win a championship. We can assess early-season performances to determine which teams won't be in the mix, but everything in the top 10-12 is always in a state of flux.
Fortunately, the heavy lifting of actually setting odds is left to smarter people. We are going to look at and critique what the latest odds heading into Week 4 say about what's happened so far and what's left to come.
No. 32 Oakland Raiders (1000-1)
On the moral victory scale, Oakland's trip to New England was a rousing success. No one expected the Raiders to compete, but the offense was driving with less than a minute to go before a bad bounce on a Derek Carr pass found Vince Wilfork to end the game.
Unfortunately, that doesn't do anything to get the Raiders out of the winless column. This is still one of the worst teams in the NFL, and it will be lucky to pick later than third in next year's draft.
No. 31 Jacksonville Jaguars (1000-1)
How long ago does that first half in Philadelphia seem? The Jaguars have played 10 quarters since leading 17-0 in the season opener, being outscored 119-27 and allowing 978 yards to Washington and Indianapolis the last two weeks.
On the bright side, at least the Jaguars are finally getting a glimpse of their future with Blake Bortles being inserted at quarterback. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport is reporting through sources that the move isn't just being used to ignite the offense:
Whatever reasons Gus Bradley had for finally putting in Bortles, the move at least gives fans in Jacksonville something to root for over the next 14 weeks. The franchise is still a mess, but seeing the Bortles-Allen Hurns connection in Week 3 was a promising sign of what's to come.
No. 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (500-1)
Has there been a more disappointing team since the start of 2013 than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? There's a lot of talent on the roster, especially at the offensive skill positions with Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey.
Unfortunately, there's always something holding the team back. Whether it's internal strife with the former head coach, inconsistent quarterback play or injuries, no one can seem to get on the same page.
Making things even worse is that despite ranking last in the NFL with 163.3 passing yards per game, Smith insists that Josh McCown will remain Tampa Bay's starting quarterback. Mike Glennon was effective in relief in the blowout in Atlanta, going 17-of-24 with 121 yards and a touchdown.
No. 29 Tennessee Titans (300-1)
After starting the season on a high with a victory over Kansas City, which included Jake Locker throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns, the Titans have scored a total of 17 points. It turns out that Week 1 was more about the Chiefs being bad than Titans turning a corner.
Making matters worse is that the Titans now have to go on the road against Indianapolis. Unless they can figure out how to put the ball in the end zone and prevent teams from running the ball, it's going to be another long season in Nashville.
No. 28 St. Louis Rams (300-1)
You can say a lot of things about St. Louis' 1-2 start, but the one thing you can't say is that Jeff Fisher's team has thrown in the towel. Sam Bradford's injury really hindered an already limited offense, but Austin Davis has filled in admirably, with 754 passing yards and three touchdowns in three games.
In fact, Davis' start has been better than several big-name quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Info's QBR:
The Rams have also been effective stopping the pass, ranking fifth in yards allowed through the air. Their two biggest problems have been running the ball and trying to stop the run. Until Fisher can figure out those two areas, it's gonna be hard to win games.
Making things more difficult is St. Louis' schedule coming off the Week 4 bye. Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle are up next.
No. 27 Minnesota Vikings (200-1)
Even though it wasn't under ideal circumstances, the Vikings got their first look at Teddy Bridgewater in a hard-fought loss in New Orleans. They will see a lot more of their rookie quarterback in the coming weeks with Matt Cassel sustaining a broken foot.
While Bridgewater can't be counted on to win games at this stage of his career, there are playmakers for him to play with as he adjusts to the NFL. Cordarrelle Patterson's touches should go up, which is going to make for a lot of happy fantasy owners.
No. 26 Kansas City Chiefs (150-1)
If you want to find a silver lining for Kansas City's 1-2 start, it can be that the Chiefs have the second-lowest point differential (plus-four) of any team under .500 in the AFC. Their Monday night matchup against New England doesn't look nearly as daunting today as it did before the season started.
On the list of teams that are fun to watch, even in defeat, the Chiefs are low on the list. Alex Smith, who has never been prone to taking chances deep down the field, was extra conservative against Miami last week, per NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal:
Until Jamaal Charles returns, you can expect more of that vanilla offensive philosophy for the Chiefs. If they win, no one in Kansas City will scare.
No. 25 Cleveland Browns (150-1)
Cleveland's Week 3 loss against Baltimore is going to sting for awhile. The Browns blew golden opportunities to put the game away, or at least force the Ravens to score a touchdown on the final drive, multiple times in the fourth quarter.
The most alarming part of the Browns' start is how poorly the defense has played. We expected issues at quarterback, but Brian Hoyer has played well, with 716 passing yards and three touchdowns. Yet if someone had said that the defense would be tied for 24th in points and 31st in yards allowed per game, it would have been hard to believe.
It will be interesting to see what the Browns do coming out of the bye this week. Their next five games are against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay. A 4-1 run through that stretch puts them on the playoff path heading into a Thursday night game against Cincinnati.
No. 24 New York Jets (100-1)
How long can you live with turnovers at the quarterback position? That's the dilemma Rex Ryan is facing with Geno Smith, who threw two bad interceptions Monday against Chicago and has five turnovers in three games.
ESPN Stats & Info also has two alarming stats about Smith that have undoubtedly prevented New York's offense from building any kind of momentum this season:
Ryan insists that Smith is going to remain the Jets starting quarterback, via Kevin Patra of NFL.com:
"Guys, this ain't the same quarterback as he was at the beginning of last year, I don't care what people say. Did he make a mistake? Absolutely. Their quarterback made a mistake but the difference was, they caught the ball and we didn't. ... I feel good about this football team and I feel good about Geno Smith.
"
No one is suggesting that Michael Vick will save New York's season, but the bad turnovers are crippling an otherwise solid team.
No. 23 Washington (75-1)
After Week 2, the big question was whether Kirk Cousins could play like an NFL quarterback against a team that wasn't Jacksonville. Now, after throwing for 427 yards against Philadelphia, the doubters are starting to believe.
There's still room for Washington's offense to improve, and the defense can't give up 325 passing yards, but at least we don't have to keep hearing about what's wrong with Robert Griffin III.
No. 22 Miami Dolphins (75-1)
It's getting harder to defend Ryan Tannehill. The excuse used to be that his offensive line was terrible, but Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno have had no problems running behind that unit.
After completing less than 50 percent of his passes against Kansas City, Tannehill started to hear whispers about his job. Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin didn't commit to his third-year quarterback ahead of this week's game against Oakland, via Armando Salguero of The Miami Herald:
"Coach Joe Philbin dodged multiple questions today on the topic. When asked if Tannehill will start against the Raiders next Sunday, he declined on every single occasion to say Tannehill would continue to be Miami's quarterback.
Instead, Philbin said he and his coaches will decide on the "46 best players" to help the Dolphins win a game.
"
With the Raiders on the schedule, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tannehill play and play well. That will buy Philbin more time with his quarterback, though it will be hard to assess any success from that game because Oakland is awful.
No. 21 Buffalo Bills (75-1)
Following two strong wins to open the season, Buffalo finally came back down to Earth against San Diego in Week 3. That was the kind of game that makes it hard to see big things for the Bills. EJ Manuel was incapable of carrying the offense with a sluggish running game.
The good news is that Houston is on the schedule this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally remembered who he is last week against the Giants, so as long as the Bills can force the Texans into passing situations on defense, they will end September at 3-1.
With New England looking as vulnerable as ever in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, don't count the Bills out just yet.
No. 20 Houston Texans (66-1)
The Texans had ample opportunities to take advantage of a sloppy Giants team in Week 3. New York lost a fumble in the red zone in the fist quarter and botched a field-goal attempt early in the second quarter. The Texans got nothing off those two turnovers, eventually committed three of their own and got blown out.
Expectations were so low in Houston coming into the year that even having a chance to finish September with a .500 record is noteworthy. It's just not likely to get better with Fitzpatrick, who had all three Texans turnovers in Week 3, under center.
No. 19 New York Giants (66-1)
It wasn't a clean victory, as they committed a bad turnover in the red zone and botched a field-goal attempt, but the Giants finally got off the schnide against the previously undefeated Houston Texans. The best part of the win was that Eli Manning didn't commit a turnover and was sacked only once.
Their reward for that effort is a trip to Washington for Thursday Night Football. Jay Gruden's defense got taken to the woodshed against Nick Foles, but the Eagles have more playmakers than the Giants. Let's see if they can put together two fairly clean games.
No. 18 Dallas Cowboys (50-1)
In what could have been the most Cowboys thing ever, Dallas spotted the Rams 21 points Sunday before pulling off the greatest comeback in team history, according to Gil Brandt of NFL.com:
We are three weeks into the season and have no idea how good the Cowboys are. The good news is that they are winning with a commitment to the run and not forcing Tony Romo to make more plays than he's capable of.
If they want to prove themselves as playoff contenders, they have a shot, with two games in the next three weeks against New Orleans and Seattle.
No. 17 Pittsburgh Steelers (40-1)
The defense isn't what it used to be, but when you look at Pittsburgh's offense, it's the quintessential Steelers unit. Mike Tomlin's team is winning with the best running game in football and an effective passing game with Ben Roethlisberger.
More importantly, the offense was able to escape the doldrums it had been in since the second half of Week 1. The Steelers put up 37 points against a Carolina defense that allowed 21 in its first two games. If they can control the clock and run the ball, they will be in the playoff picture.
No. 16 Carolina Panthers (40-1)
The most disturbing part of Carolina's loss to Pittsburgh wasn't the 37 points or 264 rushing yards allowed, it was that Cam Newton still doesn't look right. The Panthers scored two touchdowns in garbage time during the fourth quarter, one from Derek Anderson, but the star quarterback was sacked three times and isn't moving around like he did last season.
It's also not encouraging when Ron Rivera is telling reporters that Newton got pulled from that loss for his own protection, via Bill Voth of Black and Blue Review.
“I just took Cam out mostly because I was trying to protect him. I just didn’t want to see him get hit anymore," Rivera said.
With all the changes on offense in the offseason, the Panthers are going to go as far as Newton takes them. His injured ribs have prevented us from seeing the full complement of weapons at his disposal.
No. 15 Baltimore Ravens (40-1)
For all the turmoil off the field, you have to give John Harbaugh credit for keeping the locker room focused on what happens between the lines Sunday.
In a crucial Week 4 matchup, the Ravens take on the Panthers. We have seen both teams look dominant at times this season, but they are coming off performances where holes were exposed. The Ravens were able to capitalize on Cleveland miscues to get a win.
No. 14 Atlanta Falcons (33-1)
What is it about the NFC South that no one can win on the road? Atlanta defeated New Orleans at home in Week 1, looked awful against Cincinnati in Week 2 and had its way with Tampa Bay last week. Now, the Falcons get to play on the road against Minnesota.
This should also be a benefit to Atlanta's defense, playing a rookie quarterback in his first career start. The Falcons are tied for 27th with the Buccaneers in total defense. If they don't move up in this game, you will know there are a lot of problems.
No. 13 Indianapolis Colts (28-1)
If there are questions about your offense or quarterback, the best medicine is a matchup against Jacksonville. After Andrew Luck was starting to get criticized for not throwing deep down the field against Philadelphia, he throws for 370 yards with 9.8 yards per attempt and four touchdowns against the Jaguars.
While there are certain criticisms to be levied against Luck, Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk does note that no other quarterback this season has been more successful at getting first downs with his arm:
All of this is to say that the Colts will go as far as Luck takes them. We have seen that the last two years. They have struggled this season because of crucial turnovers he's made against Denver and Philadelphia. He bounced back against Jacksonville and now has a game against Tennessee.
No. 12 Arizona Cardinals (25-1)
In terms of Super Bowl odds, the Cardinals look too low. How many teams are going to win two games with a backup quarterback? They still have to beat Seattle before we can anoint them the best team in the NFC West, but it's hard to make a case that there's a better No. 2 team in the NFC.
Even though the competition hasn't been the same between them, Arizona's allowed fewer points through three weeks than Seattle and is one spot higher in pass defense and run defense. Whether Carson Palmer is a quarterback capable of leading a championship team at this stage of his career, whenever he returns, is another story.
We will find out how good the Cardinals are coming out of the bye next week when they go to Denver.
No. 11 Green Bay Packers (22-1)
If you are a Packers fan, it's best to listen to Aaron Rodgers spell out what you need to do before throwing in the towel on the team's 1-2 start, via SportsCenter:
Really, any 1-2 team with postseason aspirations whose fans are freaking out need to heed Rodgers' words. The Packers have been a flawed team for the last three years, yet they came through it in the regular season because they have the best quarterback in football.
The running game, which has been awful this year, was always going to struggle out of the gate because Seattle, New York and Detroit have great defensive lines. If that trend continues this week against a vulnerable Chicago front four, then you can panic.
Rodgers will be fine, the offense will find its rhythm soon—because there are too many playmakers for it not to—and the Packers will be in the mix for the NFC North at season's end.
No. 10 Detroit Lions (22-1)
There are two ways to look at Detroit's 2-1 start. On the one hand, the Lions are winning with defense. They are allowing just over 244 yards per game, despite having a depleted secondary, a testament to the dominance of that front four.
On the other hand, Matthew Stafford is still one of the most frustrating enigmas in all of football. It's great to have a weapon like Calvin Johnson to throw to, but when you constantly force him the ball in double-coverage, odds are good turnovers will happen. That's been the case for Detroit's quarterback.
When you have other toys to play with (Golden Tate, Reggie Bush), get them involved to open up plays down the field for Megatron.
No. 9 Chicago Bears (22-1)
Some teams win games ugly. The Bears fit that description to the letter. They are middle of the road in passing yards and pass defense, 26th in run defense and the worst running team in the NFL. Despite those numbers, Chicago has won two of its first three games.
This is a deeply flawed team that has been able to overcome its weaknesses by forcing turnovers (seven the last two weeks) and not making mistakes when the offense has the ball.
The most pleasant surprise for the Bears has been the performance of rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller, who has three interceptions in the last two weeks after taking over for an injured Charles Tillman. NFL director of NFC communications Randall Liu tweeted out this stat about Fuller's impressive early-season stats:
It's always risky to bet on a defense that has to rely on turnovers for success, but so far, the Bears are thriving because of their opportunistic style.
No. 8 San Francisco 49ers (16-1)
Just as Rodgers told Packers fans to relax, it's not all bad news for the 49ers, even though their second-half issues do make it hard to look for bright spots. If I were to ask you which team has scored the most points in the first half, would you guess San Francisco?
Bill Barnwell of Grantland highlighted that fact trying to dissect what's wrong in San Francisco. Jim Harbaugh's teams the last three years have been built on a strong foundation with the offensive line and running game.
The line hasn't looked right to start the season, though you can say that Alex Boone's holdout and absence of Anthony Davis to an injury have left the team without its starting unit through three weeks. Colin Kaepernick's second-half meltdown against Chicago in Week 2 not withstanding, he's completing 70 percent of his passes.
The defense is making stops, but ill-timed 15-yard penalties are killing the team. All of these are excuses that don't amount to much when you are 1-2 and there were reports of internal strife all offseason, but the talent is there for the 49ers to be a playoff team.
That's why it's not a shock to see this team still in the top 10 among Super Bowl favorites. Another loss and/or second-half meltdown against Philadelphia in Week 4 will certainly change that thinking.
No. 7 New Orleans Saints (16-1)
Should New Orleans feel better about itself after Week 3? Sure, the Saints got a win, but it wasn't pretty against a Minnesota team that lost its starting quarterback and isn't exactly flush with offensive playmakers right now.
The offense moved the ball with 396 total yards, yet it could only muster two touchdowns through three quarters to keep the Vikings in the game.
Winning at home hasn't been the issue for Sean Payton's team the last two years, as it's gone 9-0 since the start of 2013. Leaving the friendly confines of the Superdome has been the problem, with the team going 3-7 in the regular season since last year. That includes two losses at Atlanta and Cleveland this year. Now, the Saints have to travel to Dallas for a Sunday night showdown with the Cowboys.
No. 6 San Diego Chargers (14-1)
We always get sucked in to San Diego's orbit, believing that the team has finally turned a corner, only to be let down by an inexplicable loss at some point that reminds us why it's hard to put this team among the elite group in football.
That preamble out of the way, the Chargers are set up to be 6-1 before their first game against Denver on October 23. Their next games come at home against the Jaguars and Jets, at Oakland and back home against Kansas City.
If you want to know why the oddsmakers are falling hard for the Chargers, aside from that impressive win over Seattle, the schedule has to be at the top of the list.
No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
The Eagles offense finally put together four quarters of football against Washington, and the results were exactly what you would expect from a Chip Kelly-led group. They are second in the NFC with 101 points and a plus-23 point differential.
Defensively, there are still problems. The Eagles have just three sacks and rank 30th in pass defense, so the offense has to score a lot of points.
Even though the oddsmakers like the Eagles for the Super Bowl, it's a different story this week against San Francisco. Traveling to the West Coast, they are a 5.5-point underdog vs. the 49ers, according to OddsShark.com.
That says that no one is sure whether to believe what the Eagles have done and they aren't sold that the 49ers are as bad as they have looked the last two weeks. Something's going to give at Levi's Stadium on Sunday.
No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals (10-1)
Even though the Bengals are undefeated right now and Andy Dalton is playing well (with a quarterback rating of 95.4) without making big mistakes, it doesn't matter in the bigger picture until we see what happens in the postseason.
We can't say the Bengals haven't beaten anyone in holding their opponents to 33 points, because Baltimore has proved itself to be a quality team and Atlanta leads the NFL with 103 points scored.
In an interview with Alex Marvez of Fox Sports, Bengals offensive lineman Andrew Whitworth talked about how the team is up against it now with a bye in Week 4 and a lot of travel late in the season:
"I think with the 3-0 thing there’s probably more excitement outside the building. All three games we really expected to win. We just feel as a team that if we execute our game plan we can win.
We understand this is a long year and a long process. There’s much more ahead. We’ve got a long streak of 13 straight games now (without a bye) and a lot of them are away at the end of the season. We’ve got a lot of work to do.
"
Dalton is the key to how far Cincinnati goes, but he's never had a deeper stable of talent to play with. The Bengals are going to be dangerous the rest of this season.
No. 3 New England Patriots (9-1)
This is a clear case of reputation winning out over performance. Nothing about New England's performance this season suggests it is the third-best team in the league. When you are scoring only 16 points against an Oakland defense that allowed 49 points in its first two games against the Jets and Texans, there are problems.
Last year, the convenient excuse was to blame the receiving corps for why Tom Brady didn't look right. What's the answer this year? Is it the same? He used to be the guy who could elevate anyone Belichick put in front of him, but with just three touchdown passes and a 58.8 percent completion percentage, something's off.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk noted that all of Brady's key stats through three weeks are on pace to be career worsts:
Let's give Rob Gronkowski time to get his legs back under him before declaring Brady washed up, but it has been a steep decline for the future Hall of Famer since the start of 2013.
No. 2 Denver Broncos (5-1)
Even though no one in Denver's locker room will tell you that losing in Seattle was a moral victory, it was an eye-opening moment for anyone who doubted that the Broncos were physical enough to hang with the Seahawks.
There were defensive mistakes made, especially in overtime by overpursuing Russell Wilson on passing downs, but the overall effort was terrific. It's boring to think we could see a repeat Super Bowl, though after that Week 3 game, who is going to complain if we get a game like that again?
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (15-4)
After some brief questions about whether the defense was as good as the unit that won the Super Bowl, Seattle proved why it's the best team in football. Peyton Manning did have success throwing the ball against the secondary, but there's no shame getting beat on a last-minute drive by arguably the greatest quarterback ever.
It's been Seattle's offense that's been impressive this season. I kept saying last week that even in defeat, it was remarkable the Seahawks scored 21 points despite holding the ball for less than 18 minutes against San Diego.
Wilson put together a championship-caliber drive in overtime against Denver, going 4-of-6 with 35 yards and 15 rushing yards, including two third-down runs that resulted in first downs. Even if there are spots to attack the defense that weren't there last year, an improved offense makes it hard not to love where the Seahawks are right now.
Note: Odds via OddsShark.com
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