NFL Week 3 Predictions: Road Underdogs Guaranteed to Cover Spread

There's no more thrilling victory in the NFL than going on the road, in front of another team's fans after they've spent all week psyching themselves up to see their guys put on a great show, and quieting everyone on the opposite sidelines and in the stands. 

Of course, there may not be a tougher task in the NFL than winning on another team's field. The elite teams are able to do it regularly, while everyone else is stuck in limbo hoping to reach that level. There's a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL. Sometimes, it's as simple as playing at home. 

However, while we prepare to indulge in Sunday madness, Week 3 is offering up a host of road teams prepared to steal a victory. We are going to tell the best bets to at least cover the spread, if not walk away with a straight-up win. 

Matchup	Pick
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)	Chargers, 27-17
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)	Bengals, 24-14
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Cleveland Browns	Browns, 23-20
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	Packers, 31-27
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts, 31-17
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-15)	Patriots, 35-14
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-12)	Saints, 41-17
Houston Texans at New York Giants (Pick 'Em)	Giants, 20-17
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	Washington, 27-24
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Pick 'Em)	Cowboys, 27-13
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals	49ers, 23-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	Dolphins, 24-13
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)	Broncos, 27-24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	Panthers, 24-17
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	Jets, 20-17

San Diego Chargers (+1) at Buffalo Bills

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

It's unfortunate that we live in a world where logic is essential to understanding, because the San Diego Chargers are a team that completely defies logic. They had nothing working in the fourth quarter against Arizona in Week 1, blowing an 11-point lead in the final 15 minutes. 

Naturally, taking on the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, Antonio Gates would play like it's 2006 with three touchdown catches and the offense would control the ball for more than 42 minutes in putting up 30 points. 

Inconsistency has been a hallmark of the Chargers basically throughout the Philip Rivers era. As Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports wrote on Twitter, we might be talking about a San Diego dynasty if NFL games were shorter:

Coming on the heels of their big win, San Diego travels across the country for an early kickoff against the undefeated Buffalo Bills. As the Bills tweeted out, west-coast teams have never been very successful going to the other side of the country:

It's not always pretty with the Bills, but their formula of running the ball and managing the clock is working so far. EJ Manuel found a nice rapport with Sammy Watkins in Week 2 against Miami, targeting the rookie receiver 11 times for eight receptions and 117 yards. 

So with that said, why pick the Chargers in this spot?

Simply put, they are a bad stylistic matchup for the Bills. Buffalo's strength on offense is running the ball; San Diego's strength on defense is on the front seven with Corey Liuget, Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu. The Chargers aren't great against the run, but have been effective when needed. 

Buffalo's weakness on defense is the secondary, which has allowed 551 passing yards through two games. The Bills are effective at getting after the quarterback with six sacks thus far, but Chicago and Miami have had two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL for years. 

Rivers has so many weapons to play with. Gates had three touchdowns against the league's best team; Keenan Allen is still waiting for his breakout game this season; Eddie Royal is a solid possession receiver; Danny Woodhead will be a bigger factor with Ryan Mathews on the mend. 

If the Chargers want to be serious contenders, this is the kind of game they need to win. They won't disappoint this week. 

Chargers 27, Bills 17

Washington (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

Nick Wass/Associated Press

This game causes more problems than any other on the Week 3 schedule when you think about it. Consider that the best performance both teams have had came against Jacksonville, while the Eagles escaped Indianapolis in Week 2 thanks to an errant Andrew Luck throw and poor play from Nick Foles all game. 

Meanwhile, what do you make of Kirk Cousins as Washington's starting quarterback? He had 250 yards and two touchdowns against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 75 points in the last six quarters. 

Are we supposed to believe that Cousins has suddenly figured things out after completing 52.3 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and seven interceptions in a larger sample last season? Is Foles really as bad as he's looked this year after looking so great last season?

In addition to the questions at quarterback, LeSean McCoy is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, DeSean Jackson is dealing with a shoulder problem and has been a disappointment averaging nine yards per catch, and Pierre Garcon is worse with 8.1 yards per reception. 

We can't even tout Washington's defense as being vastly improved despite what the numbers say (third against the pass, fourth against the run) because Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne were the opposing quarterbacks in the first two games. 

About the best reason that I can find for why Washington will win the game outright is due to an improved pass rush and Nick Foles' inability to remain accurate outside the pocket so far this season. Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post highlighted how poor the Eagles quarterback has been under duress:

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Last season, Foles completed 47.5 percent of his passes when under pressure. Over the first two weeks of this season, he is even lower at 33.3 percent. His passer ratings under pressure in those years are 83.1 and 59.0, respectively.

[...]The key will be to unleash Jason Hatcher (four sacks and one quarterback hit), plus use Brian Orakpo less in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, through the first two weeks of the season, only three outside linebackers playing in a 3-4 scheme have been used significantly more in coverage than Orakpo (16 snaps), but he has been able to get to the quarterback once out of every ten passing plays the opposition runs (one half-sack and four hurries).

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When you combine Washington's upgraded pass rush, while acknowledging that 10 sacks against Jacksonville is an aberration, with the fact that Philadelphia has generated little pressure through two weeks against the aforementioned Jaguars and Colts (not known for their offensive line either), as well as Alfred Morris' presence in the backfield for the road team, it's hard not to like what Jay Gruden's offense is capable of. 

Washington 27, Philadelphia 24

Denver Broncos (+5) at Seattle Seahawks

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

We have arrived at the main event of Week 3, which is a rematch of the Super Bowl that anyone outside of Seattle wants to forget. However, if you are expecting a repeat of that 43-8 drubbing, you will be disappointed. 

That was one of those games where everything went wrong for the Broncos and came up roses for the Seahawks. Plus, these are two vastly different teams than the ones that walked off the field seven months ago. 

Denver will be playing with its best offensive lineman this time around (Ryan Clady), as well as Emmanuel Sanders, Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller.

Seattle's offense is more dynamic now than it was in February with Percy Harvin 100 percent healthy, but Marshawn Lynch was slowed early in the week with back problems. He did return to full practice on Thursday, so it doesn't sound like the injury is too serious. 

However, Pete Carroll's defense isn't as strong as it was last year. The secondary is still largely intact, but the front four is much different and, with the exception of Michael Bennett, not as effective. It was noted last week on the Fox broadcast that Rivers was having success throwing against the defense by getting the ball out of his hands quickly to negate any pass rush, according to Jayson Jenks of The Seattle Times, via The Denver Post:

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San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers quickly got the ball out of his hands, neutralizing Seattle's pass rush by not giving them much of a chance.

On the Fox-TV broadcast, former NFL lineman David Diehl said Rivers attempted 351 passes last season when he got the ball out of his hands in 2.5 seconds or less. Rivers mostly operated in that same window against Seattle.

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The Seahawks front four were able to overwhelm Denver's line in the Super Bowl, allowing them to drop everyone else into coverage and frustrate Peyton Manning. Unless they are able to do that again, expect the Broncos to follow San Diego's blueprint to success. 

For Denver's defense, being able to finish hasn't been a problem. The Broncos have held off the Colts and Chiefs on late drives in the fourth quarter, but that came after those teams were able to erase huge early deficits down to seven points. 

The Seahawks have been able to move the ball and score points this season. Even last week, the fact they were able to score 21 points despite having the ball for less than 18 minutes is impressive.

If the Broncos take their foot off the gas pedal against Seattle at CenturyLink Field like they have in the first two games, it's going to get ugly. Fortunately for Denver, the sting of seven months ago for the players who were there won't allow that to happen. 

Broncos 27, Seahawks 24

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