NFL Predictions Week 3: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

If the opening two weeks of the 2014 NFL season are any indication, we're in for another weird year packed with constant swerves and unpredictable outcomes.

Heading into Week 3, just seven teams are standing tall at 2-0. Besides a couple high-pedigree names, those lucky few squads are not the expected batch.

Even the highly anticipated Super Bowl XLVIII rematch lost a small coding of luster when the Seattle Seahawks lost to the San Diego Chargers. The Denver Broncos jumped to a 2-0 start, but both wins came by a touchdown after routinely annihilating the opposition last year.

Fantasy football players are not immune to that uncertainty. Not all the stars are living up to their draft price, and many scrubs are in turn emerging as superb talents. 

Let's tackle both fields by predicting every Week 3 contest and highlighting a few big-name fantasy stars worth monitoring this weekend.

Away	Home	Time (ET)	Prediction
San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills (-1)	1 p.m.	27-20 SD
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams (Even)	1 p.m.	24-13 DAL
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	1 p.m.	34-27 PHI
Houston Texans (-1)	New York Giants	1 p.m.	20-13 HOU
Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints (-11)	1 p.m.	38-16 NO
Tennessee Titans	Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)	1 p.m.	21-10 CIN
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns (Even)	1 p.m.	24-23 CLE
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions (-2.5)	1 p.m.	30-24 GB
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)	Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	35-13 IND
Oakland Raiders	New England Patriots (-15)	1 p.m.	28-7 NE
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)	Arizona Cardinals	4:05 p.m.	17-16 SF
Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks (-5)	4:25 p.m.	27-24 SEA
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	4:25 p.m.	14-13 MIA
Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers (-3)	8:30 p.m.	20-9 CAR
Chicago Bears	New York Jets (-2.5)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	30-23 CHI

All odds, updated as of Friday, Sept. 19, are courtesy of Odds Shark. 

Fantasy Stars to Watch:

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

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After the top tier of elite fantasy quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers), many drafters often turned Andrew Luck's way next. After compiling 774 passing yards and six touchdowns during two postseason games, this looked like the year the former No. 1 pick would realize his superstar prophecy.

Week 1 played out like those playoff slates. He offered 370 passing yards and three total touchdowns but also saddled owners with a pair of picks. Even though he posted three touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles, he stumbled with 172 yards on 34 attempts.

Of course, Luck is more concerned with the 0-2 start caused partially by his imperfect play, per the NFL Network:

He's thrown 10 interceptions in his last four games, postseason included, but this is the week for Luck to deliver a breakout performance without any blemishes.

When Robert Griffin III went down last Sunday, Kirk Cousins stepped in with 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. While the popular reaction was to wonder if Cousins is Washington's best quarterback, one game shouldn't erase last year's 52.3 completion percentage and 5.51 yards per attempt. A shaky player took advantage of a subpar defense. Now a great player should carve up that same unit.

Luck owners are not biting their nails and scouring for a new quarterback. He's still a sterling option; it's just a matter of him living up to his draft value as a top-five signal-caller. A strong game against Jacksonville would put him back on that path.

Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, RBs, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

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The New England Patriots are infuriating fantasy gamers with their lack of a commitment to a specific running back? Get out of town.

Shane Vereen put his name on the map with 47 catches last season, but Stevan Ridley's fumbling concerns gave him a window to evolve into the running game as well.

Or maybe not. While he was afforded six handoffs against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, Ridley received 25 carries, which he turned into 101 yards and an end-zone visit. Is Ridley, who boasted a 12-touchdown campaign in 2012, back to No. 1-back status?

ESPN.com's Matthew Berry pointed out an interesting fact in his weekly "Love/Hate" column. The usage rates depend heavily on the scoreboard.

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Since last season, Ridley has been on the field for 292 snaps in New England wins compared with 221 for Shane Vereen. But in losses, Vereen outsnaps Ridley 134-74. Feel the Patriots crush Oakland here, and Ridley is clearly out of the doghouse, so this is a nice spot for him, as the Raiders have allowed the most rushing yards in the league in the first two games of the season.

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Considering their styles, the distinction makes perfect sense. In games like last week's runaway win over the Vikings, Bill Belichick turned to Ridley to lead a physical ground-and-pound approach. Vereen, meanwhile, makes his living as a pass-catcher, a skill New England utilizes more when trailing.

At 0-2, the Oakland Raiders showed little life against the New York Jets and Houston Texans. Anything can happen, but the safe money is on New England controlling this game. To obtain that edge, the Patriots will exploit Oakland's rushing defense, which has surrendered a league-worst 400 yards on the ground.

That all bodes well for Ridley, who has curtailed those fumbling issues as of late. Another heavy workload is on his way this weekend, which makes him a worthy starter and Vereen a risky flex play to start in point-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Making his season debut against the Legion of Boom at Seattle hardly screams "must start," but Wes Welker will at least satisfy PPR owners in his accelerated return.

An amended NFL drug policy allows Welker, who previously received a four-game suspension for amphetamine use to start the season, to return earlier than expected this Sunday. The Denver Broncos welcomed their slot receiver back on Twitter:

For Welker and his fantasy mangers, the reinstatement comes at an inopportune time. Seattle, the league's best passing defense last season, silenced Aaron Rodgers at home before shockingly allowing a trio of touchdowns to Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates.

During Week 1, the Green Bay Packers drew attention for eschewing Richard Sherman throughout the entire game. They instead lined up Jarrett Boykin beside the top corner, using the young wideout as a decay. It didn't receive as much fanfare, but Denver actually employed a similar tactic during Super Bowl XLVIII.

John Fox made Eric Decker the sacrificial lamb, and he caught just one six-yard pass during his swan song with the Broncos. As a result, Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker each enjoyed frequent targets throughout the blowout.

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Demaryius Thomas	18	13	118	1
Wes Welker	10	8	84	0
Eric Decker	5	1	6	0

Even when the Seahawks flexed their muscles against Green Bay, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb delivered solid fantasy contributions. While Nelson recorded nine catches for 83 yards, Cobb registered six receptions, 58 yards and a score.

As tough as the matchup is, slot receivers can succeed against the Seahawks. With Emmanuel Sanders likely taking Decker's role against Sherman, expect Manning to look Welker's way often in the pivotal clash.