Fantasy Football Week 3: Last-Minute Stat Predictions Before Sunday's Games

It's time for another full-scale panic Sunday in the fantasy football world. Unless you had Matt Ryan, Devin Hester, Julio Jones or Atlanta's defense on Thursday night, you've got to start racking up points in a hurry to put the pressure on the opposition. 

Making matters even worse, especially this week, is the number of star players who are either dealing with injuries or not playing because they're hurt. Hopefully you played the waiver wire correctly this week, because it will be a huge asset. 

Now that we've got you even more concerned about your fantasy team this week, it's time to accentuate the positive by offering up our predictions for the top 20 scorers and offer up analysis on three key positions. 

Rank	Player, Pos.	Team	Opp.	Projected Stats	Projected Points
1	Drew Brees, QB	NO	vs. MIN	350 yards, 4 TDs	30
2	Andrew Luck, QB	IND	at JAC	290 yards, 3 TDs (1 rushing)	28
3	LeSean McCoy, RB	PHI	vs. WAS	110 yards, 2 TDs	27
4	Tom Brady, QB	NE	vs. OAK	310 yards, 4 TDs	26
5	DeMarco Murray, RB	DAL	at STL	92 yards, 2 TDs	25
6	Arian Foster, RB	HOU	at NYG	88 yards, 2 TDs	24
7	Calvin Johnson, WR	DET	vs. GB	107 yards, 2 TDs	22
8	Philip Rivers, QB	SD	at BUF	272 yards, 2 TDs	21
9	Aaron Rodgers, QB	GB	at DET	244 yards, 3 TDs	21
10	Giovani Bernard, RB	CIN	vs. TEN	121 total yards, TD	19
11	Russell Wilson, QB	SEA	vs. DEN	210 yards, 2 TDs	18
12	Matthew Stafford, QB	DET	vs. GB	307 yards, 2 TDs	18
13	Lamar Miller, RB	MIA	vs. KC	103 total yards, TD	16
14	Peyton Manning, QB	DEN	at SEA	277 yards, 2 TDs	15
15	Jordy Nelson, WR	GB	at DET	86 yards, TD	15
16	Cam Newton, QB	CAR	vs. PIT	220 yards, TD	15
17	C.J. Spiller, RB	BUF	vs. SD	76 yards, TD	15
18	Chris Johnson, RB	NYJ	vs. CHI	110 yards	14
19	Steven Ridley, RB	NE	vs. OAK	122 total yards	14
20	Jimmy Graham, TE	NO	vs. MIN	88 yards, TD	14

Quarterback

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Even though there have been some deserved criticisms coming his way, Andrew Luck has the perfect matchup in Week 3 to get back on track. In Week 1, he had a lot of yards, but two interceptions negated that. Last week, he had three touchdowns on short passes and 172 yards on 34 attempts. 

The Jaguars are the perfect elixir for what ails Luck. They have allowed 32 fantasy points and four touchdowns combined to Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins through two games. That being said, it may be in Indianapolis' best interest to reel in Luck's attempts this week. 

Scott Hanson of DirecTV's NFL RedZone pointed out that the Colts are a much better team when their quarterback isn't racking up yards:

Even with that stat, don't be concerned. Luck is good for at least 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns against arguably the worst team in football. 

A sleeper play for this week is E.J. Manuel. Obviously, you don't put him ahead of players like Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, et al. If you have concerns at the position, or questions about Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick or even Peyton Manning against Seattle's defense, Manuel found a rapport with Sammy Watkins last week and faces a San Diego defense that's 23rd in opponent completion percentage and tied for last in yards per attempt. 

If there's a quarterback getting pumped up right now to avoid like the plague, it's Cousins. He was terrific in relief of Robert Griffin III last week for Washington, but he was doing it against Jacksonville. We've seen him start other games, like three at the end of 2013, and look lost with two games of less than 200 yards and an overall completion percentage of 52.3. 

Plus, Cousins is going up against a Philadelphia pass defense that has been good this season. If you want to take out the Jacksonville game because the Jaguars are terrible, Luck wasn't moving the ball down the field against the Eagles on Monday. He had three touchdown passes largely set up because the running game was so effective. 

Opponents are completing just 57.1 percent of their passes against the Eagles and a minuscule 5.0 yards per attempt. Until Cousins proves himself as a starting quarterback, which means doing more than just beating Jacksonville, he's a non-factor in fantasy circles. 

Running Back

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

There's not a lot of attractive options at running back this week. Jamaal Charles returned to practice on Thursday after sustaining a high ankle sprain against Denver last week. Adam Teicher of ESPN had this note about Charles:

You can't trust a player, even one as great as Charles, in this spot with that injury. Even if he plays against Miami, how effective will he really be?

LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray are the two highest-rated running backs on my board. Murray isn't a shock because he leads the league in rushing yards and Dallas seems to be more committed to running the ball than ever. 

McCoy—acknowledging the danger of putting so much stock into two games—hasn't looked right running the ball. He's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, down from 5.1 last season, but is making up for it with 10 receptions through two games. 

This week, McCoy is taking on a Washington defense that ranks third against the run, though most of that is because of Jacksonville's ineptitude on offense. Arian Foster ran for more than 100 yards against Jay Gruden's defense in Week 1, so don't read too much into the overall ranking so far.

My sleeper in this group is Lamar Miller. We know he's going to get the ball a lot with Knowshon Moreno out after dislocating his elbow last week. Miller has been very good in limited duty with 105 yards on 22 carries. 

James Walker of ESPN spoke to Miller, who said that he will be fine for Week 3 after tweaking his ankle against Buffalo. 

Combine Miller's production with a Kansas City defense that has allowed 250 yards on the ground thus far, and he should be good for at least 70 yards with a handful of receptions and one touchdown. 

Wide Receiver

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Not that this will come as a shock, but if you have a wide receiver in the Green Bay-Detroit game, get them in your lineup. Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson are locks, but Randall Cobb and Golden Tate are going to get their share of catches in what should be an exciting shootout between those NFC North rivals. 

As for a receiver you want to start who has underperformed expectations so far this season, Reggie Wayne looks good against Jacksonville. He's still getting his legs back after tearing his ACL last year and age (35) isn't on his side, but Luck still looks his way a lot. 

Wayne had nine receptions in Week 1 against Denver and seven targets against Philadelphia in Week 2. He's also loved playing against Jacksonville, recording his lone 100-yard game of the 2013 season against the Jaguars. 

If you need more concrete evidence, Colts assistant director of communications Matt Conti has this nugget for you:

"

In his career against Jacksonville, Reggie Wayne's 138 catches for 1,956 yards are the most for any active player in the NFL against 1 team.

— Matt Conti (@ColtsConti) September 18, 2014"

Since we predict Luck to have a big game against the Jaguars, it only makes sense that his No. 1 receiver would be a must-start fantasy option. 

Going from the cagey veteran to the upstart rookie, Brandin Cooks is another wide receiver to love this week. New Orleans should have no problem taking care of Minnesota at the Superdome, and Drew Brees is going to have a field day in his first home game. 

Few teams excel on their home turf like New Orleans. The Saints went undefeated at home last year, averaging 34 points per game. Cooks got lost in the shuffle of last week's surprising loss at Cleveland, but he had a strong debut against a bad defense in Atlanta with seven catches, 77 yards and one touchdown. 

It's clear that Sean Payton wants to make Cooks a focal point of the offense, as Chris Wesseling of NFL.com pointed out he's playing more than Marques Colston through two weeks.

There are going to be a lot of points scored for the Saints on Sunday, making it a prime game for fantasy owners to focus in on. Cooks is going to love playing on the turf in New Orleans with Brees throwing him the ball. 

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