Week 3 Waiver Wire: Top Pickups and Drops

The worst thing about writing about fantasy football as a job—and believe me, the good dramatically outweighs any bad there might be—is that I know the people in my various leagues have easy access to my thought process on a weekly basis. 

They know whom I value as a trade target, for example. And worse, they know exactly who I might be targeting on the waiver wire. 

I can't tell you how many times I've laughed an evil laugh while imagining putting misinformation in these articles just to throw them off. Alas, I would never mislead you, dear reader, and I'd probably get fired rather quickly if I started singing the praises of Daniel Thomas on the waiver wire. 

So yes, at the expense of my poker face when it comes to my own league dealings, I've once again compiled my list of the top targets on waivers this week and the players you might think about dropping. The goal, after all, is to make sure you win your league. If I win mine, well, that's a bonus.

All point totals and ownership statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues. Ownership statistics from late Monday evening.

1. Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: 61.2 percent

Analysis: Well, this one is pretty easy. 

With Jamaal Charles leaving the game Sunday, Knile Davis stepped into the featured role and promptly rushed 22 times for 79 yards and two touchdowns and added six receptions for 26 yards on nine targets. Those aren't just RB1 numbers; it's also the type of usage that suggests RB1 sustainability for Davis while Charles is sidelined.

And yes, it seems Charles will likely be sidelined for at least a week or two, possibly more. Andy Reid confirmed the type of injury the star running back suffered Sunday, via BJ Kissel of KCChiefs.com:

Albert Breer of NFL.com weighed in on the injury:

Even when Charles returns, Davis should have some value, as the Chiefs will likely limit Charles' workload, at least initially. You can basically pencil in Davis, a very talented runner in his own right, as a low-end RB1 to high-end RB2 until Charles returns.

2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: 21.8 percent

Analysis: Let's not beat around the bush—Ahmad Bradshaw is better than Trent Richardson. He's more dangerous getting to the edge, he finishes his run with more verve, and he's utilized more catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Here's a simpler way of looking at the whole thing: Through two games, Bradshaw has 29 fantasy points, and Richardson has 11.

The Colts will likely keep platooning the two to keep teams off-balance and to protect the injury-prone Bradshaw, but without question, the Colts running back I want and would consider flexing on a weekly basis is Bradshaw. Go out and get him.

3. Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington

Ownership: 4.8 percent

Analysis: Another simple one.

With Robert Griffin III out for possibly the year and extremely unlikely to return, if he does at all, before November, Kirk Cousins has become a very intriguing fantasy option for players. With DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Alfred Morris and Jordan Reed upon his return at Cousins' disposal, Cousins has the weapons to be successful.

Still, he's been a bit inconsistent for fantasy owners. In his last four starts, Cousins has scored 21, 10, 0 and 18 fantasy points. That's some hit-or-miss production.

On the other hand, there have been whispers this week that Cousins is actually the quarterback coach Jay Gruden preferred to run his system all along. Consider the following from Mike Wise of The Washington Post:

"

Let’s not sugarcoat the past two months: Gruden was having a hard time getting Griffin to grasp the principles of the drop-back passing system he was teaching. If Cousins and Griffin had come to camp as undrafted rookies, Cousins may have opened the season as the starter.

Again, according to the person with knowledge of Gruden’s thinking, he actually believed Cousins could succeed in the system better than Griffin but also acutely understood it was going to be near impossible to make a change.

"

Politics are politics, and sitting RG3 would have been wildly unpopular. That's not hard to see. But Gruden didn't exactly wholeheartedly deny any such talk, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com:

Oh, indeed.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out, but one thing is certain: Cousins is an absolute must-add this week, and against a porous Philadelphia secondary, he is a high-end QB2 or even a low-end QB1 in deep leagues. 

4. Donald Brown, RB, San Diego Chargers

Ownership: 87.7 percent

Analysis: This target would be an obvious enough choice, except he's already owned in a surprising number of leagues. Nonetheless, if he's available in your league, go out and get him.

In relief duty of Ryan Mathews on Sunday, Brown rushed seven times for 21 yards and added three receptions for 10 yards on four targets. Those aren't overwhelming numbers, but it is interesting to note that Danny Woodhead had just two more touches than Brown (and before he left the game, Mathews had 13 touches himself).

In other words, Brown seems likely to absorb Mathews' role, while Woodhead will continue in the scatback role rather than take on a larger proportion of the touches in the backfield. And we probably won't see Mathews again for another month, per NFL on ESPN:

For the most part, Brown should be considered an RB2 or weekly flex consideration. He's not as talented as Mathews, but the drop-off isn't immense.

5. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: 60.8 percent

Analysis: Through two weeks, Zach Ertz has seven receptions for 163 yards and a touchdown on just 10 targets. He's averaging 23.3 yards per catch, folks—a gigantic number. He's been a beast in this offense with the limited looks he's gotten. 

Expect his usage to continue to increase. Adam Caplan of ESPN thinks it should:

The Eagles would be absolutely crazy not to involve Ertz more often, and you would be just as crazy to ignore him if he's on your waiver wire. He's going to be a weekly TE1 the rest of the way. Chip Kelly is smart enough to know when he has a playmaker on his hands.

6. Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Ownership: 4.7 percent

Analysis: Doug Martin may end up returning in time for Thursday's game, but should that matter to fantasy owners?

Probably not. For starters, Martin is starting to feel like an injury-prone player. And more than a few folks out there are suggesting Rainey might not be a downgrade to Martin and that Rainey deserves more touches even with a healthy Martin in the lineup. 

Like Sigmund Bloom of Football Guys:

Or NFL Philosophy:

Or Christopher Harris of ESPN:

Sensing a theme here?

I'm more reluctant to assume the Bucs will give up on Martin so quickly, but with a Thursday night game looming and not a Sunday contest, it's hard to see the Bucs leaning on Martin. This might be a committee situation for good, and after rushing 22 times for 144 yards on Sunday, Rainey has proved he'll deserve every touch he gets.

7. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

Ownership: 46.5 percent

Analysis: Perhaps reports of Antonio Gates' demise were a tad premature. 

It was a popular notion that the 34-year-old would be ousted by Ladarius Green at tight end this season. Not so fast, my friends. In two games, Gates has 13 receptions for 177 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets. Talk about efficiency!

Yes, Gates will taper off somewhat at some point. Last year, he notched seven or more fantasy points in four of the first five weeks but just twice after that, so there's a precedent for a fast start and a slow finish. But for now, you should enjoy this ride as long as it lasts. If you've been streaming tight ends thus far, Gates might be the perfect way to add a bit of stability to the position in your lineup. 

After that one-handed touchdown grab against the Seattle Seahawks, it's clear that Gates isn't done making plays in this league just yet.

8. Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans

Ownership: 70 percent

Analysis: I'll admit that my concern with Delanie Walker after Week 1 was the notion that his fantasy value might be touchdown-reliant. But after catching 10 passes for 142 yards and a score on 14 targets—and really looking like the only impressive Titans player on offense—it's clear that Walker and Jake Locker have a pretty good thing going. 

I don't think he's going to be a TE1 on a weekly basis, of course. But in solid matchups like the one he had against a poor Dallas pass defense, Walker is absolutely a player you should be plugging into those lineups. He won't score touchdowns every week, so he might be a bit streaky, but Locker seems to trust him enough to mitigate that somewhat.

9. James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders 

Ownership: 25.8 percent

Analysis: Perhaps lost among the jokes and laughs after James Jones fumbled twice on the same play, losing the second one, was the fact that the former Green Bay Packer finished with nine receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets—all team highs. It was the second week he nabbed a touchdown. 

Yes, going forward, Jones will probably be reliant on touchdowns to justify a starting spot. He certainly was in Green Bay. But 14 targets is 14 targets, folks, and from a talent standpoint, he's Oakland's top option. In Week 2, it seemed Derek Carr realized that. 

Expect the rookie quarterback to keep looking Jones' way. He has sneaky upside and might be around for folks a little further down the wire.

T10. Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin, WRs, Cleveland Browns

Ownership: 16.2 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively

Analysis: I lumped these two together because if you are considering one of them, you are probably debating whether you should add the other. Here's how I fall on the debate.

I would lean toward Hawkins, if only because his usage has been higher in the past two weeks. Thus far this season, Hawkins has nabbed 14 passes for 157 yards 22 targets. What he hasn't done is reach the end zone, something Austin did this week. In total, Austin has eight receptions for 64 yards and a score on 13 targets.

That means 50 percent of Austin's fantasy value thus far has come on his one touchdown reception. That's generally not a sustainable equation, especially for a player on the downside of his career. On the other hand, Hawkins has 15 fantasy points after two weeks, and that production seems likely to replicate, with a touchdown here or there to spike his weekly number.

Hawkins is not a sexy pick, I know, but he's a flex option in deeper leagues. At this point, I'm not sold on Austin, but his solid outing on Sunday makes him worth monitoring going forward.

12. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: 2.3 percent

Analysis: After barely playing him in Week 1, Andy Reid involved Kelce in the game plan more in Week 2, and it paid off. The talented tight end snared four passes for 81 yards on six targets. Anthony Fasano may get more snaps, but Kelce looks like the one playmaker in the team's passing game. 

He's not worth starting yet unless you're in deeper two-TE leagues, but he is worth a stash for the moment Reid realizes he needs to prioritize getting Kelce the ball. 

13. Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants

Ownership: 1.3 percent

Analysis: We continue our deep dive into the tight end market with Larry Donnell, the one consistent performer in the Giants passing game thus far. Very quietly, he's caught 12 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks on 17 targets.

Normally, little-known tight ends will earn fantasy relevance for a week or two by catching a flurry of touchdown passes, but Donnell's numbers are actually completely sustainable given the yards he's accruing and the amount Eli Manning targets him. Heaven knows the Giants could use a steady player on offense, and thus far, Donnell has been just that. 

Gates, Walker and Kelce all have more upside. But Donnell looks to have established the type of role that could make him one of the surprises at the position this season. In deeper leagues or two-TE leagues, he should absolutely be owned.

14. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Ownership: 42.8 percent

Analysis: We've been down this particular road many times over the years, so I'm not going to belabor the point too much here. It's pretty simple. As long as DeAngelo Williams is out, Stewart is a decent flex option. The moment he comes back, Stewart is far too risky to trust on a weekly basis. 

He should be owned, but his value is entirely dependent on the health of Williams and Mike Tolbert. 

15. Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: 13.2 percent

Analysis: In Week 2, it became obvious that Bernard Pierce is going to be the No. 1 option in Baltimore. Pierce had more carries (22 to eight) and more rushing yards (96 to 56). Forsett still has some value as the change-of-pace back and as an option catching passes out of the backfield, but for now, you should assume he's the No. 2 option in Baltimore.

16. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: 1.7 percent

Analysis: In a world in which A.J. Green was going to miss significant time to injury, Mohamed Sanu would have a fair amount of fantasy value. According to head coach Marvin Lewis, we don't live in that world. From Pro Football Talk on Twitter:

Well then.

Sanu had a decent game in Week 2, catching three passes for 84 yards and a score on four targets. If Green can't go this week, Sanu will be a low-end WR3. Beyond that, however, he's probably not a guy worth rostering until he proves he can produce with more regularity. 

17. Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: 0.1 percent

Analysis: Let's quickly review the health of the Jacksonville receiving options, via John Oehser of Jaguars.com:

OK, so that's one player out for a while and two more question marks in the passing game. Add the tepid start of Marqise Lee during his rookie season (eight receptions for 73 yards), and there could be plenty of targets for Allen Robinson this week.

The rookie from Penn State was nowhere to be found in Week 1 but responded against Washington with four receptions for 75 yards. Cecil Shorts will be the top dog in the passing game upon his return, but Robinson is going to do battle with Allen Hurns for the playmaking role down the field in this offense. 

After Hurns dropped what would have surely been a touchdown in Week 2, Robinson may have a leg up. At the very least, Robinson is a player to monitor.

18. Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams

Ownership: 3.3 percent

Analysis: Here's a deep dive for you. Very, very quietly, Brian Quick has caught 14 passes for 173 yards on 18 targets this season. While the lone receiver fantasy owners tend to pay attention to in St. Louis, Tavon Austin, has been a non-factor and will miss time with a sprained knee, Quick has covertly turned himself into the top option for the Rams.

In really deep leagues, Quick is probably still available and is probably about as good as you'll find on waivers this week. In all formats, he's certainly a man worth monitoring.

Players to Drop

Alex Smith hasn't been playing bad football, but Kansas City's dink-and-dunk offense and dearth of weapons in the passing game aren't conducive to fantasy success. Take away the seven points he's earned from running the ball, and Smith has 16 fantasy points total on the season. 

He's not a guy I need on my bench.

I don't think you should drop Matt Asiata just yet, but with Adrian Peterson returning this week, Asiata has no value. I'd continue stashing him, but he doesn't have any value for the time being. He's simply a handcuff—and one you probably weren't keeping around before last week.

There are still 21.7 percent of owners out there holding onto Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons. With four fantasy points in two games and four different players getting touches out of the backfield thus far—in a pass-first offense, no less—Freeman is just taking up space on your bench.

Ditto for Andre Williams, who still has a 35.3 percent ownership. Rashad Jennings has impressed for the Giants and has 23 fantasy points after two weeks. Williams may end up being the guy, but unless you can afford to stash a mid-tier handcuff, I'd let him go. 

I said it last week, and I'll say it again—Heath Miller just isn't a great fantasy option. He has seven receptions for 61 yards this year. You can do better.

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and make some corny jokes too. It's more fun than playing hot potato with James Jones.