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B/R Writers' Fantasy Football Mock Draft Insights from the 7 Spot, Rounds 10-12

Rob TongContributor IIISeptember 19, 2016

B/R Writers' Fantasy Football Mock Draft Insights from the 7 Spot, Rounds 10-12

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    Few tools can help fantasy football owners more in preparing for their own draft(s) than analyzing mock drafts.

    In case you missed it, you can catch my analyses of Rounds 1-3, Rounds 4-6 and Rounds 7-9.

    This Bleacher Report Mock Draft featured 10 Featured Columnists:

    1. Alexander Onushco

    2. Ryan Lester

    3. Tim Keeney

    4. Ralph Longo

    5. Gary Davenport

    6. James Reagan

    7. Rob Tong (that's me)

    8. Daniel Stack

    9. Matt Madsen

    10. Marco Patitucci

    These late rounds of the draft can be the difference between a championship team and a mere playoff team. Solid depth is critical in case of injuries, high draft picks who fail and bye weeks. Any fantasy football owner who snoozes in these late rounds is not likely to be a factor in your league.

    So what can we mine from Rounds 10-12?

10th Round

2 of 5

    1. Marco: RB Jahvid Best

    2. Matt: RB Donald Brown

    3. Dan: RB Stevan Ridley

    4. Rob: San Francisco DEF

    5. James: TE Tony Gonzalez

    6. Gary: RB Peyton Hillis

    7. Ralph: WR Justin Blackmon

    8. Tim: QB Philip Rivers

    9. Ryan: RB Toby Gerhart

    10. Alex: TE Jared Cook


    Analysis

    As late as a week before this draft, I was dead set against drafting a defense earlier than the last two picks of the draft.

    After all, defenses can be unpredictable. Preseason favorites too often go south, making them a wasted draft pick. And strong ones too often come out of nowhere, making it likely you can find a decent one on the waiver wire.

    So I was strongly against reaching for a defense.

    But then a stat jumped out at me that changed my thinking.

    The stat? Three touchdowns scored.

    That is, the 49ers defense scored only three touchdowns as a unit last year. Yet they finished second overall in standard Yahoo! scoring (8.9 FPPG).

    Meanwhile, the other three top defensive teams combined for a whopping 19 touchdowns scored.

    If you've studied baseball sabermetrics, you know that some stats are fluky—they are not reliable predictive indicators of future success, such as a pitcher's home run rate.

    In football, defensive touchdowns scored is also a fluky stat—it's not a reliable predictive indicator of future success.

    The fact that the 49ers defense finished No. 2 among fantasy defenses despite scoring only three touchdowns shows that they are a very strong defensive unit that doesn't need to rely on fluky scores to be elite.

    The San Francisco defense is young. They're returning all 11 starters. The team's offense looks to be much improved, which should in turn help the defense in terms of field position.

    And if the San Francisco defense ends up scoring more than three touchdowns this year, they could be off the charts for fantasy.

    I don't take any credit for that stat; my guy John Hansen from FantasyGuru.com is the one who unearthed it.

    Taking San Francisco in the 10th or 11th round seems about right for a starting defensive unit with the potential that they have.

    If the 49ers defense was gone, I would have taken an offensive player here and waited until the 14th round to take a defense.


    Solid Values

    Philip Rivers in the 10th round is a steal. Tim got a very solid QB2 at a very good price.

    Tony Gonzalez was the third-best fantasy tight end last year but was the 11th TE taken in this draft. I see Gonzalez producing at a similar level as last year, so this was a very good value pick for James, especially as James' TE2.


    Questionable Values

    A bit early for Justin Blackmon, in my opinion, who isn't even the No. 1 receiver on his own team. Also, if I want a high-upside backup, I'd rather take a guy like Ben Tate over a guy like Toby Gerhart, even though Gerhart is Ryan's Adrian Peterson handcuff.

    It remains to be seen how much Jahvid Best, who has a history of concussions going back to college, will be on the field in 2012. Even without the omnipresent concussion risk, he's still going to share time with Mikel Leshoure.

11th Round

3 of 5

    1. Alex: WR Denarius Moore

    2. Ryan: WR Randy Moss

    3. Tim: RB David Wilson

    4. Ralph: RB Ben Tate

    5. Gary: QB Matt Schaub

    6. James: RB Michael Bush

    7. Rob: WR Titus Young

    8. Dan: WR Michael Floyd

    9. Matt: WR Malcom Floyd

    10. Marco: QB Josh Freeman


    Analysis

    I was targeting Denarius Moore, the second-year Raiders receiver who had 618 yards receiving on just 33 receptions as a rookie, but Alex took him at the top of the round.

    My next target was Titus Young, the second-year Lions receiver, who did fall to me.

    Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. Though his numbers aren't as gaudy as Denarius Moore's, Young has the benefit of having Matthew Stafford throwing him the football.

    As reported by the Detroit Free PressYoung has looked unstoppable in OTAs and minicamp thus far, befitting his status as a former second-round draft pick. And Young has the benefit of having Calvin Johnson be the focus of opposing pass defenses

    I think Young is primed for a breakout year. If I did not get Young, I would have gone for my QB2.


    Solid Values

    Ralph got a great back in Ben Tate, who last year gained over 100 yards rushing in Weeks 7 and 9—the same games in which Arian Foster went over 100 yards rushing. It is a big mistake that Alex, who has Foster, did not get Tate.

    Josh Freeman is a sleeper QB pick with his new offensive weapons and the addition of guard Carl Nicks, so Marco got a nice QB2 here in the 11th round.


    Questionable Values

    None.

12th Round

4 of 5

    1. Marco: RB Felix Jones

    2. Matt: WR Nate Washington

    3. Dan: QB Andrew Luck

    4. Rob: WR Laurent Robinson

    5. James: WR Anquan Boldin

    6. Gary: RB Pierre Thomas

    7. Ralph: WR Sidney Rice

    8. Tim: WR Santonio Holmes

    9. Ryan: Pittsburgh DEF

    10. Alex: RB Bernard Scott


    Analysis

    I'm still trying to find guys who will command the ball on their NFL team, even though that's really hard to do this deep into the draft.

    I did find one guy here: Laurent Robinson.

    I realize Robinson has gone from having Tony Romo as his quarterback to Blaine Gabbert.

    However, if you watched the Cowboys play last year, you probably saw that Robinson helped make Romo better just as much as, if not more than, Romo made Robinson better.

    Robinson has that intangible knack for finding the soft spots on defense, which is why he was Romo's favorite target even when Miles Austin was healthy.

    That knack should help make him Gabbert's favorite target too.

    As I mentioned in an article on dynasty players, Gabbert was terrible last year. However, much of Gabbert's awfulness was due to arguably the worst group of wide receivers—ever.

    I mean, when most hardcore fantasy football owners can't even name one of the Jaguar receivers from last year, you know that's a truly bad group of receivers.

    Remember, Gabbert was the 10th overall draft pick last year, so it's not like he has no talent. Now with Robinson and Justin Blackmon, Gabbert has a chance to be a competent NFL quarterback.

    With Blackmon learning the ropes as a rookie, Robinson will be the one commanding the ball on this Jaguars offense. And that's a pretty good attribute to have in one's 12th-round pick.


    Solid Values

    None.


    Questionable Values

    There are plenty of better backup RBs still available than Bernard Scott.

    Also, waiting until the 12th round to take one's WR3 is not smart. The fact that said WR3 is Anquan Boldin is even less appealing. Maybe James can trade Tony Gonzalez or Vernon Davis for a better WR3 after the draft.

The Teams so Far

5 of 5

    Alex
    QB1: Robert Griffin III
    QB2: Jay Cutler
    RB1: Arian Foster
    RB2: Trent Richardson
    RB3: James Starks
    RB4: Bernard Scott
    WR1: A.J. Green
    WR2: Kenny Britt
    WR3: Demaryius Thomas
    WR4: Denarius Moore
    TE1: Fred Davis
    TE2: Jared Cook

    Ryan
    QB: Tony Romo
    RB1: LeSean McCoy
    RB2: Adrian Peterson
    RB3: C.J. Spiller
    RB4: Toby Gerhart
    WR1: Wes Welker
    WR2: Mike Wallace
    WR3: Brandon Lloyd
    WR4: Reggie Wayne
    WR5: Randy Moss
    TE: Brandon Pettigrew
    DEF: Pittsburgh

    Tim
    QB1: Cam Newton
    QB2: Philip Rivers
    RB1: Ray Rice
    RB2: DeMarco Murray
    RB3: Jonathan Stewart
    RB4: DeAngelo Williams
    RB5: David Wilson
    WR1: Dez Bryant
    WR2: Dwayne Bowe
    WR3: Robert Meachem
    WR4: Santonio Holmes
    TE: Antonio Gates

    Ralph
    QB1: Michael Vick
    QB2: Peyton Manning
    RB1: Chris Johnson
    RB2: Darren McFadden
    RB3: Isaac Redman
    RB4: Ben Tate
    WR1: Greg Jennings
    WR2: Steve Smith
    WR3: DeSean Jackson
    WR4: Justin Blackmon
    WR5: Sidney Rice
    TE: Jermichael Finley

    Gary
    QB1: Ben Roethlisberger
    QB2: Matt Schaub
    RB1: Jamaal Charles
    RB2: Frank Gore
    RB3: Shonn Greene
    RB4: Peyton Hillis
    RB5: Pierre Thomas
    WR1: Calvin Johnson
    WR2: Andre Johnson
    WR3: Marques Colston
    WR4: Steve Johnson
    TE: Jason Witten

    James
    QB1: Matthew Stafford
    QB2: Eli Manning
    RB1: Maurice Jones-Drew
    RB2: Steven Jackson
    RB3: Michael Turner
    RB4: Reggie Bush
    RB5: Michael Bush
    WR1: Larry Fitzgerald
    WR2: Vincent Brown
    WR3: Anquan Boldin
    TE1: Vernon Davis
    TE2: Tony Gonzalez

    Rob
    QB: Matt Ryan

    RB1: Ryan Mathews
    RB2: Doug Martin
    RB3: Mark Ingram
    WR1: Brandon Marshall
    WR2: Jordy Nelson
    WR3: Vincent Jackson
    WR4: Torrey Smith
    WR5: Titus Young
    WR6: Laurent Robinson

    TE: Jimmy Graham
    DEF: San Francisco

    Dan
    QB1: Aaron Rodgers
    QB2: Andrew Luck
    RB1: Matt Forte
    RB2: Roy Helu
    RB3: Mikel Leshoure
    RB4: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
    RB5: Stevan Ridley
    WR1: Roddy White
    WR2: Victor Cruz
    WR3: Antonio Brown
    WR4: Michael Floyd
    TE: Jermaine Gresham

    Matt
    QB: Drew Brees
    RB1: Darren Sproles
    RB2: Fred Jackson
    RB3: Willis McGahee
    RB4: Donald Brown
    WR1: Percy Harvin
    WR2: Miles Austin
    WR3: Eric Decker
    WR4: Darrius Heyward-Bey
    WR5: Malcom Floyd
    WR6: Nate Washington
    TE: Rob Gronkowski

    Marco
    QB1: Tom Brady
    QB2: Josh Freeman
    RB1: Marshawn Lynch
    RB2: Ahmad Bradshaw
    RB3: Beanie Wells
    RB4: Jahvid Best
    RB5: Felix Jones
    WR1: Hakeem Nicks
    WR2: Julio Jones
    WR3: Jeremy Maclin
    WR4: Pierre Garcon
    TE: Aaron Hernandez


    Analysis

    With just three rounds left, my roster is completely filled with guys who will command the ball, with the exception of Titus Young. But I'm predicting a breakout year for Young, so even he should not be a slouch.

    That means this is a team that not only can put up big points but also can do it consistently—week in, week out.

    No backups or bench guys. No committee guys. No aging veterans.

    I am thin at RB, so I'll have to address that with one of my remaining picks. And I need to pick up a backup QB.

    Other than that, this is a pretty competitive team, even if it's not my ideal team.

    The final three rounds will be covered in an upcoming article.

    Follow me on Twitter: @robtong21

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