NBA Lockout: Who Benefits and Is Hurt the Most from the Proposed 72-Game Season?

Perhaps the things that came out of the last two days of meetings in the NBA labor negotiations are the definitive start dates, playoff schedule and season length.

One can't help but conclude that, while no one would say as much, there is a level of confidence the players will agree to the latest proposal. 

While there are still some steps to go, things are to a point where it's possible that the conversation can start moving away from the financial mumbo-jumbo and towards the actual basketball of the situation. 

The 72-game schedule is not going to be the same type of schedule as a typical 82-game schedule.

With the 82-game schedule, the teams played one game every 2.07 days, or 3.4 games per week. The 72-game schedule will have the teams playing one game every 1.83 days or 3.8 games per week.

It may not sound like much, but it's a pretty huge difference. The difference boils down to that extra day every week or two that normally would have been a day off or a day of practice. That means there are two types of adjustments teams will have to make.

Some teams will have to adjust to the shortened rest time; other teams will have to adjust to the shortened practice time.  

Teams which will be hurt by the shortened rest time are teams that are longer in the tooth. Teams which come to mind among the contenders are the Boston Celtics, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Dallas Mavericks and, to a lesser degree, the Miami Heat. The Celtics, Lakers and Mavericks are some of the oldest teams in the leagues, and their most important players are not only older, but they are older players who need their rest. The San Antonio Spurs are another team who have their star players long in the tooth. In fact, they wore out last in last year's 82 game schedule.  

Miami, to a lesser degree, would be affected as it has many players who are older, but they are not the key players in the lineup. The Heat will be able to manage their situation better, giving various players games off since they aren't critical to them winning. 

It will still impact them, though, as the reduced reliance on the other contributors could put even more on the top-heavy big three. Even that might be mitigated, though, by the fact that they will have more contributions from Mike Miller (provided he is not bought out as some speculate he could be) and Udonis Haslem. 

However things shake out, it is reasonable to conclude that the Heat will be minimally affected by the shortened rest time. 

The next kind of team that will be affected by the condensed schedule is those teams which are in need of practice times. This could be for one of three reasons. Either teams who are adding or, at the trade deadline, added numerous new players. It can also be teams who are adding new coaches. Finally, teams who are just very young could be affected 

Teams that come to mind in this regard are first the teams that have hired new coaches. This includes the Lakers, the Houston Rockets, the Golden State Warriors, the Toronto Raptors and the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

In most of these cases, the coaches are bringing in new systems, and with the shortened preseason (one week) and the shortened preseason schedule (one week, probably just three or four games at most), teams will have very little time to learn the new systems. Teams who are very young, but not successful, are also going to be negatively impacted. It will be harder for them to adjust to the lack of practice. Teams like this include teams like the Washington Wizards, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

To a lesser degree, the Los Angeles Clippers fit in there too, but they could compensate more easily because they showed signs of breaking out last year and Vinnie Del Negro doesn't have the most sophisticated schemes in the NBA (kind of like Larry the Cable Guy isn't the most sophisticated man to ever meet Martha Stewart!).

The New York Knicks are a team that will be affected by not having a prolonged preseason or practice too. They had such a turnover last year at the trade deadline that they were never able to really figure out how to work all the new players together, nor were they able to figure out how to best use Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony together. 

They will likely work these things out through the course of the season and will probably be the team that is going to improve the most through the year. It could hurt them a lot in terms of playoff position though. 

The New Jersey Nets are in that position too, though not to the same degree because the player added is so adept at running a team. Deron Williams seemed to step into the position quite effectively last season in spite of his injury issues.

Still, on the defensive end, the Nets were much worse when Williams was on the court, but not because Williams is a bad defensive player. He's actually a very good defensive player, but he needs to learn the schemes and fit into them.Portland also could be categorized here. It has a lot of depth and a lot of players. It added Wallace last year and he was a significant contributor. It added a new point guard in the offseason, though, and it's just a lot of getting to know one another's tendencies that are going to be worked out there. 

Portland is a team that might finish much better than it starts. 

In terms of teams who "benefit," no one really does. However, teams that aren't hurt as much almost benefit by default. Teams who have the majority of their roster returning, who had some level of success last year and who are relatively young are the teams who are the most able to respond to the difficulties of the condensed schedule. 

The two teams that come to mind the most are the two teams that lost in the Conference Finals last year. Both teams have the majority of their key players under 30. The Thunder only have one player of even slight significance of any age—Nick Collison who is all of 31. They have no other player over 30 who played 500 minutes last year. 

The Bulls have Carlos Boozer who will turn 30 in a couple of weeks, and Keith Bogans who will be 31. Neither of those is particularly old, and should see his role considerably reduced. The rest of their key players, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, are all 27 and younger. 

The Bulls will be adding another shooting guard almost assuredly, though, and have to work that player into their schemes. Particularly on the defensive side, that might take some time. The Bulls will be more affected by the schedule than the Thunder, but far less than any of the other contenders. Another team that could benefit is the Memphis Grizzlies, who broke out a bit in the postseason last year and did so with a lot of young talent. They did so without their young star, Rudy Gay. The one question is that they did it with an almost philosophical change, relying on the scoring of their big men. 

If they can effectively incorporate Gay into that scheme, they could be a very frightening team. It would be nice if they had some more time to work these things out, but these are minor things in the overall picture. 

As far as the rest of the teams go, either they are marginally affected but not significantly, or else they have too many indeterminable factors to consider. For instance, if the New Orleans Hornets can keep David West, they are a team that benefits. If they lose him, they are a team that is hurt. 

The gist, though: if you're a Lakers fan or Celtics fan, it's not good. If you're a Bulls fan or a Thunder fan, it is good. For everyone else, it's somewhere in the middle.