Miami Heat Will Not Win the NBA Championship: A History Lesson As To Why?

When LeBron James was asked if he came to Miami to win a championship, he responded with the following, "Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven."  I'm sure he wanted to give the impression that he intended to win at least eight championships. In the history of the NBA, only one man has won that many rings as the star of his team. 

Bill Russell was that man, and he tallied 11 rings in 13 years, including eight in a row. He is without a doubt the greatest winner in the history of pro sports. For crying out loud, he has more rings than fingers to put them on, and it is not like he is Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown. 
 
Little did we all know that LeBron's boast may actually be right. The Heat won't win anywhere from one to seven rings with him. The problem for LeBron is that it won't be eight either. More than likely, it will be none. Zero. Zilch. 

A detailed look at the composition of past NBA Champions will help shed some light on the matter. 

We need to learn from our history before making boastful predictions. As Winston Churchill once said, "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
 
This analysis starts in 1980 and ends in 2010. Of those 31 NBA Champions, 30 of them had one thing in common. They were lead by a transcendent star player. The lone anomaly was the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who won with a great set of role players who played perfectly as a team. 

I recently wrote about that team and why taking Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony helped them win that title. You can read that explanation here. 
 
Twenty-nine of those 30 teams had another thing in common. A star player as the second best player on the team. Only the 1994 Houston Rockets bucked that trend with Otis Thorpe playing second fiddle to an inhuman Hakeem Olajuwon that year. 

It is fair to say that if 29 out of 31 champions fit the same mold, that blueprint should be followed in the future. I'm sure many of you are getting ready to point out that the Miami Heat do in fact have two stars in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade (Chris Bosh does not count). You would be right. 

However, we need to take an in depth analysis as to why that pairing, and this team as a whole, are more than likely destined to fail.
 
First, we need to examine the three different types of players a championship can be built around as the main player—the dominant big man, the dynamic wing or the elite true point guard.
 
The dominant big man does each of the following at a high rate—score, rebound and defend. Eleven of the 30 championship teams were led by a dominant big man, including five different players. 

Tim Duncan has won four titles at PF for the San Antonio Spurs, Shaquille O'Neal won three titles at C for the Los Angeles Lakers, Hakeem Olajuwon won two titles at C for the Houston Rockets, Moses Malone won a title at C with the Fo-Fo-Fo Philadelphia 76ers and Kevin Garnett has won a title at PF with the Boston Celtics.
 
The dynamic wing does each of the following at a high rate for his position—score, rebound and distribute the ball. Twelve of the 30 championship teams were led by a dynamic wing, including four different players. 

Michael Jordan won six titles at SG for the Chicago Bulls, Larry Bird won three titles at SF for the Boston Celtics, Kobe Bryant has won two titles (as the main man) at SG for the Los Angeles Lakers and Dwyane Wade has won a title at SG for the Miami Heat.
 
The elite true point guard does each of the following at a high rate for his position—distribute the ball, score and direct the team as the coach on the court. Seven of the 30 championship teams were led by an elite true point guard, including two different players. 

Magic Johnson won five titles at PG for the Los Angeles Lakers and Isiah Thomas won two titles at PG for the Detroit Pistons.
 
The rest of each of these championship teams were made up of second and third options that were lesser versions of the aforementioned types or fell into one of three role player types—shooters, wing defenders or low post defenders. This is where the analysis of championship team composition gets juicy.
 
Of the 11 championships won by dominant big men, seven of the 11 had a dynamic wing as the second option. Shaq had Kobe for three titles and the following pairs each won one title—Moses had Doctor J, Olajuwon had Drexler, Duncan had Ginobili and Garnett had Pierce. 

Even more fascinating is that six of those seven teams featured a shooter as the third option—Robert Horry twice, Ray Allen, Derek Fisher, Glen Rice and Andrew Toney.  Clearly, pairing a dominant big man with a dynamic wing as a second option and a shooter as the third option yields results.
 
Of the 12 championships won by dynamic wing men, six of the 12 had a dominant big man as the second option. Bird had Parish or McHale for three titles, Kobe had Pau Gasol for two titles and Wade had Shaq for one title. Digging deeper, five of those six featured a wing defender or low post defender as the third option—Ariza, Artest, Haslem, Parish and Cedric Maxwell. 

For the teams where a dominant big man was the focus, having a shooter as the third option is more important so he can kick it out to him to hit open jumpers. However, on the teams where a dynamic wing is the main focus with the dominant big man playing second fiddle, a player with more of a defensive mindset fits better as the third option. 

The other six championships won with a dynamic wing man as the star were Jordan's Chicago Bulls, but I will touch on that more later.
 
Of the seven championships won by an elite point guard, the split between dominant big men and dynamic wings as the secondary option was pretty even. Magic had Kareem as the second option for three titles. He also had James Worthy as the second option for two titles. Both of Isiah Thomas' titles came with Joe Dumars as the second option. 

The mix of third options varied the most here, but clearly, building around an elite point guard as the first or second option yielded the least success. Of the 30 championships, elite point guards were the first or second option on only nine of the teams. The aforementioned seven titles, plus two titles Duncan won with Parker as his second option. 

As a comparison, dominant big men were involved as a first or second option in 20 of the 30 titles and dynamic wing men were involved in 23 of the 30 titles.
 
Do the Miami Heat fit any of these tried and true blue prints? 

Not really. Their best player LeBron James and their second best player Dwyane Wade are both dynamic wing men. Having the top two options as dynamic wing men has only worked for one combination of players during this time-frame—the Chicago Bulls duo of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. 

Sure, they won six titles, but player options three through five were different. I will dig down deeper into that in a bit. 

Furthermore, Wade is no Jordan. Jordan is the best SG in the history of the NBA. Wade is going to be a top five SG of all time if he stays healthy, but he still is no Jordan.  LeBron is better than Pippen at SF. Pippen was a top 10 SF of all time, but LeBron may be the best SF of all time. 

What it really comes down to are player options three through five.
 
For all six of their championships, Jordan and Pippen had a tremendous low post defender as their third best player. Horace Grant was there for the first three-peat and Dennis Rodman was there for the second three-peat. 

Chris Bosh is clearly the third option for the Miami Heat this year. While he is a better scoring option then either Grant or Rodman, he isn't anywhere near their class as a defender. This is blatantly obvious, since the Heat struggle badly against teams with quality big men. 

Rodman guarded the other team's top player in all three of the Bulls championships—Karl Malone twice and Shawn Kemp once. All three of those series went six games. It is safe to say that Rodman's defense was crucial to each of those titles, since he was slowing down the other team's top player for all three showdowns. 

Grant had it slightly easier. He was matched against the top player just once, Charles Barkley. However, his other two assignments, Buck Williams from Portland and Sam Perkins from the Lakers, were no slouches. Two of those three series went six games.  You could argue the Bulls needed Grant to win both of those, especially the matchup against the Phoenix Suns and Barkley.  
 
Bosh's subpar defense is going to put the Heat's title hopes on ice. Even though he is a PF, he likes to shoot jumpers and is subpar defensively, as previously mentioned.  Essentially, he is a less talented version of Chris Webber, another PF who never won a ring. 

That third player doing exactly what the team needs is crucial to winning a title.  Instead of helping the Heat, Bosh is a millstone hanging from their neck. They would be way better off with a player like Joakim Noah or Anderson Varejao starting at PF. 

Ironically, LeBron left Cleveland where he had Varejao. The past two seasons, the Cavaliers won 66 and 61 games. This year, the Heat are on pace to win about 55 games. Cleveland's cast of players may not have had the star power that LeBron craved, but they were a better fit as a complete team.
 
I'm assuming the Heat will go with Mike Bibby at PG and Ilgauskas at C in the playoffs as their fourth and fifth options. Comparatively, Jordan's Bulls had B.J. Armstrong, John Paxson and Ron Harper play the PG for at least one of the championship squads. Bibby can measure up to all three of those players as a shooter from the PG position as the fourth option, so he isn't the problem. 

Bill Cartwright started at C for the first Bulls three-peat and Luc Longley started at C for the second Bulls three-peat. At this point in his career, Ilgauskas is a poor man's Cartwright and Longley. In his earlier days, Ilgauskas was an All-Star caliber C. However, at this point, he is a slightly inferior option to what the Bulls had for their fifth option. 

This wouldn't be as much of a problem if the Heat had a defensive monster at PF, as previously mentioned.
 
Clearly, this shows that Bosh's inferiority as a defender to Rodman and Horace Grant is what will prevent the Heat from winning it all this year. Further complicating matters is his contract and the upcoming CBA negotiations. There has been talk that a hard cap might be put in place. If the Heat can't win a title this year, how can they expect to in the future if The Heatles are taking up all of their cap room? 

Trading Bosh could be an option, but who wants to pay him superstar money with the maximum contract he just signed when he clearly isn't a superstar? Even if a team were dumb enough to trade for Bosh, would they give up the type of player the Heat really need, like a Noah or a Varejao? Doubtful.
 
To be fair to Bosh, this isn't entirely his fault. LeBron and Wade have their shortcomings as well. Neither one is the clutch player that Jordan was. It is important to remember Jordan and Pippen were also the only pair of dynamic wings to win a championship together over the last 31 years. It also took them four years of playing together before they actually won a title as well. 

What LeBron and Wade are trying to accomplish is virtually unheard of. We shouldn't be surprised if they fail to win a title this year or ever. We should be more surprised if they go against what history has taught us. 

The dynamic wing is best served teaming up with a dominant big man. Dwight Howard and either Wade or LeBron would be a much deadlier combo than what the Heat currently have.