Golden State Warriors' Biggest Championship Threats as NBA Playoffs Near
There may not be as many threats to the Golden State Warriors' third championship in four years as initially thought.
Two potential obstacles have seemingly lost that status to injuries. The Boston Celtics—who almost always give the Dubs problems—just announced Kyrie Irving is done for this season and the playoffs (knee surgery).
The San Antonio Spurs—who looked as threatening as any of Golden State's 2017 postseason foes—are running out of time to get top two-way player Kawhi Leonard back in action, let alone near 100 percent.
That said, the degree of difficulty from the remaining threats could be the hardest in this run.
From injury issues to inconsistent performances, the Dubs seem uncharacteristically vulnerable. They've already lost more games than they ever have under Steve Kerr, and their net efficiency rating is down 3.4 points per 100 possessions from 2016-17 (plus-8.7, from plus-12.1). Their injury report is unnervingly long, and they're still ironing out some elements of their rotation.
Not to mention the Association has its own set of possible roadblocks outside the Bay Area. All due respect to Boston and San Antonio, but there are other juggernauts who are bigger causes for concern.
With internal and external hurdles ahead, these are the greatest threats to Golden State's championship hopes.
The Fringe Threats
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OKC has been the model of inconsistency. To wit, its longest winning streak of the season (eight games) was immediately followed by a four-game skid. The Thunder also took their first two games with the Warriors but ate a 32-point loss the last time Golden State had all four of its All-Stars healthy.
If the Thunder drew the Stephen Curry-less Warriors in the first round, the series could have upset potential. It would take Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony playing their best basketball together, which hasn't happened often. But on OKC's hottest nights, it's capable of keeping pace with Golden State.
Strange as this would have sounded in October, it might be underselling the Process to only deem it a fringe threat. The Sixers aren't merely the NBA's hottest team (12 consecutive wins and counting), they're also its second-most efficient since the All-Star break (plus-10.0 net rating). When they're right, they have the combination of playmakers, scorers, sharpshooters and versatile defenders needed to bother the Dubs.
But Philly has question marks, none bigger than the orbital fracture sidelining All-Star center Joel Embiid. The Sixers also often show their age when it comes to the game's finer points, leading the league in turnovers (16.7 per game) and tying for second in fouls (22.2). They could be the least predictable team in the dance with a (dark-horse) championship ceiling and a first-round-exit floor.
In three games against the Warriors this season, Blazers All-Star point guard—and Oakland native—Damian Lillard totaled 111 points and 18 assists against seven turnovers. Backed by a top-10 defense and strong support scoring from C.J. McCollum (26.7 points per game), Portland picked up two wins in those three outings and gained the confidence it can hang with the defending champs.
"We're the real deal," Lillard said, per ESPN's Chris Haynes.
Portland has been the West's third-best team, but it's still at least a stone's throw back of Golden State. The full-strength Warriors are better on offense and defense. And even if the Blazers can make the backcourt battle a draw, the Dubs own a massive advantage up front.
If there's a defense capable of derailing the Dubs, it's Utah's. The Jazz's post-All-Star break defensive rating is a minuscule 96.7, 4.7 points lower per 100 possessions than Boston's league-leading mark of 101.4. Utah has held 14 of its last 17 opponents below 100 points, limiting teams to just 42.4 percent shooting over that stretch.
The question about the Jazz is whether they can find enough offense to complement that lockdown defense. They only have one player clearing 14 points per game—rookie Donovan Mitchell, who's just a mediocre shooter from the field (43.7 percent) and outside (33.8).
4. Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors' stock should be booming. They are one win shy of clinching the Eastern Conference's top seed and setting a new franchise record. They already own the East's highest net rating by a comfortable margin (plus-7.7) and are the only team with top-five efficiency rankings on offense (third) and defense (tied for fifth).
But the hoops world has collectively taken a wait-and-see approach with the Raptors. This team hasn't proved it can win on the biggest stage or solve the LeBron James riddle no conference member has figured out for the last seven years.
Toronto sitting a forgettable 4-5 over its last nine outings has only increased the scrutiny of this squad.
As CBS Sports' James Herbert noted, it looks like the East still runs through LeBron:
"The Raptors have a talented enough roster to give the Cavs trouble, but they do not employ a LeBron stopper and they will be counting on Serge Ibaka, O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam to make Cleveland pay for leaving them open. ... Nothing the Raptors have done in their remarkable regular season has erased the matchup problems posed by James being surrounded by shooters."
That's why Toronto only sits as Golden State's fourth-biggest threat, even if most metrics suggest it should be higher. Still, the Raptors pose a bigger problem than the fringe group, due to having a pair of All-Stars, dominating at both ends, bettering the Warriors bench and making enough stylistic changes on offense to perhaps get over their postseason hump.
3. LeBron James
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Admittedly, there are concerns about the Cleveland Cavaliers that aren't easy to shake.
Their defense is only as good or better than two others—the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns, who have 113 losses between them. Cleveland never filled the void left by Kyrie Irving, and there isn't a consistent third option behind James and Kevin Love. The Cavs seem to be hitting their stride with 10 wins in 11 games, but they have a lot of moving parts that haven't all fallen into place.
But look at the slide label—the Cavs aren't the threat here; it's all about King James.
His 15th NBA campaign could be his best to date. He has never averaged more rebounds (8.7) or assists (9.2). He has never averaged this many points (27.5) while shooting this accurately from the field (54.3) and from three (36.4).
"Obviously, I've had some unbelievable seasons before, but I've said it: This is the best I can go, just from a complete basketball player standpoint," James said, per Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press.
The Warriors know how powerful James can be. In 2015, he willed Cleveland to a pair of Finals wins over Golden State without Irving or Love. One year later, James captured Finals MVP honors for dethroning the Dubs with series-highs in points (29.7), rebounds (11.3), assists (8.9), steals (2.6) and blocks (2.3).
Who's snapping James' Finals streak? A Toronto team that has no answers for him? A Boston team missing Irving? A 76ers squad playing in its first postseason since 2012? James looks Finals-bound again, and he'll be a problem for Golden State—even if another team poses a greater threat.
2. Houston Rockets
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You know how—health permitting—the current championship path and those in the near future all appear likely to go through Golden State? Well, the Houston Rockets used that as their guide to build a contending-caliber club.
"It's the only thing we think about," Rockets general manager said on ESPN Radio's The Ryen Russillo Show in December (h/t ESPN). "I think I'm not supposed to say that, but we're basically obsessed with 'How do we beat the Warriors?'"
Houston's roster composition bears that out.
The Warriors have great guards, so the Rockets built perhaps the league's premier backcourt with Chris Paul and James Harden—a duo responsible for 49.2 points and 16.7 assists per game. Golden State has a slew of versatile defenders, so Houston added Luc Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker alongside Trevor Ariza, a trio that boasts a minuscule 96.7 defensive rating during its shared floor time.
Houston has bigs who can defend in space, top-shelf scoring off the bench and gobs of shooting. The Rockets also have a leg up on the Warriors in offensive efficiency (112.8 to 112.6), net rating (plus-8.9 to plus-8.7), winning percentage (.810 to .722) and triples per contest (15.4 to 11.3). And Houston took the regular-season series 2-1, twice toppling Golden State when it had all four All-Stars available.
The Rockets are a different type of threat than the Dubs have faced. They have better two-way balance than the Cavs did, a more explosive offense than the Spurs possessed and a more cohesive system than the Thunder deployed.
It's still not enough to make Houston the on-paper favorite in a potential series, provided Golden State has its full complement of stars. The Rockets lose the head-to-head numbers game when it comes to elite talents and two-way contributors. But they're the greatest external force that could take down the Dubs.
1. Stephen Curry's Health
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The Warriors have a higher ceiling than anyone. When they're right, they're almost unbeatable. They've played 758 minutes with Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all on the floor and trounced opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions.
But if that minutes total feels low, that's because it is. Last year, they had that quartet together for 955 minutes. That's because outside of Durant, the other three stars will all play fewer games than they did then. And the biggest decline involves the player they can least afford to lose—Curry, who has the team's widest on/off splits (plus-14.7 with him, plus-3.8 without).
Ankle troubles caused the bulk of Curry's absences, but it's an MCL sprain to his left knee that's casting a cloud over his postseason availability. Kerr doesn't see how Curry can play in the first round. Curry hopes to prove that prediction wrong but conceded that "right now, who knows?" per ESPN's Chris Haynes.
Armed with superior star power, the Dubs are seemingly best-equipped to handle the loss of a talent like Curry. (Quinn Cook has certainly impressed in Curry's absence.) But almost everything Golden State does goes through Curry. He is "the system" as Durant put it, per The Athletic's Anthony Slater, with the shooting range, rapid release and playmaking prowess to dismantle any defense.
"Their system just doesn't make sense without him," The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks wrote. "... The threat of Curry shooting is what makes it work. Multiple defenders have to track him everywhere he goes, regardless of whether or not he has the ball."
It's unclear how much time Curry will miss and uncertain how close he can get to 100 percent once he returns. If the Chef can cook up some postseason gems, the Dubs could again waltz to the title. If his body won't allow it, the championship field could be more open than anyone would have imagined.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.
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