Top Offseason Priorities and Potential Targets for Chicago Bulls
Down 37 points to the Boston Celtics in the third quarter of a March 5 blowout, Zach LaVine took his 11th shot from the field but failed to connect from 23 feet. The springy shooting guard was still struggling to find his footing after a midseason return from his ACL rehabilitation, and head coach Fred Hoiberg had seen enough from the young man who'd fallen to 1-of-11 on the night.
"There's no excuse for what we did out there," LaVine said to the Associated Press following the game, per ESPN.com.
He was yanked from the proceedings roughly a minute after that final brick, replaced by David Nwaba and doomed to join some of his fellow starters on the pine. In fact, Nwaba, Denzel Valentine, Noah Vonleh, Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, Cristiano Felicio and Jarell Eddie—hardly a who's-who list of established NBA talent—were the only Bulls to see action during the final period.
Justin Holiday? Zero minutes that night as the Bulls dropped their 14th game in 17 outings. Ditto for Robin Lopez, even though he and his wing counterpart have been two of the better presences on the Windy City roster.
And the league decided it was tired of this situation:
All season long, the Bulls have been caught in a pickle.
Even in the weaker half of the NBA, they're not yet ready to compete for anything of note. Lauri Markkanen is still developing. Bobby Portis is growing into a more consistent player. Kris Dunn is strengthening some of his many offensive flaws. The top-tier talent, however, just isn't there, and it won't be without developing the youngsters.
But on the flip side, Chicago has also been slightly too talented to drop to the bottom of the pack, especially given the multitude of squads competing for top odds in the 2018 NBA draft lottery. Veterans such as Lopez and Holiday elevate the floor, and the young players are far enough along to earn some victories. And that just highlights any tanking strategies the organization might employ, which the league office both noticed and cracked down upon.
That makes the future a little trickier. Since that warning, Chicago has toppled the Memphis Grizzlies (twice) and Atlanta Hawks while hanging tough with a pair of playoff contenders in the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers. It's now eighth in the Tankathon standings, putting top-tier prospects Luka Doncic and Deandre Ayton likely out of reach.
And yet, the Bulls are still in pretty solid shape as they seek to expedite their rebuild and quickly end a playoff drought before it extends to multiple seasons.
Setting the Stage
Could the Bulls have avoided handing away a first-round pick while trading Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves last offseason? Potentially, though the haul they received for their previous franchise cornerstone has still exceeded the minimal expectations and dismal grades that emerged in the immediate aftermath. Similarly, they might regret assuming Omer Asik's albatross salary in this year's Nikola Mirotic deal or handing Felicio a four-year, $32 million extension during the summer of 2017.
But the Bulls are still in solid shape.
Only three notable contracts are coming off the books at the conclusion of 2017-18: Vonleh (continuing to disappoint), Nwaba (growing into a potential keeper with his relentless defensive energy) and LaVine (plenty more on him shortly). Rhe Bulls should be swimming in cap space this offseason.
Per Spotrac, only the Los Angeles Lakers ($61.9 million) have more practical cap space than Chicago's projected figure of $41.5 million. The third-place Atlanta Hawks are more than $10 million behind.
Couple that with a pair of first-round picks—their own and a top-five-protected selection received from the New Orleans Pelicans in the Mirotic exchange—and the Bulls are positioned to make some summer noise.
Priority No. 1: An Extension for Zach LaVine
Regardless of what happens during free agency and the draft, the Bulls' top priority must be securing LaVine throughout the foreseeable future. Though prior trades should now be considered sunk costs, it does matter that he was the centerpiece of the Butler return, and he still carries more upside than anyone on the roster not named Markkanen.
To be clear, LaVine struggled immensely since returning from his ACL injury and before succumbing to knee tendinitis. He's averaged only 16.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists while shooting 38.3 percent from the field and 34.1 percent from long-range, and the Bulls have been eight points per 100 possessions better when he's on the bench.
But that shouldn't disincline Chicago from committing long-term.
LaVine was always going to take time to regain his sea legs, particularly with a game predicated upon athletic ability. His habits are more effective when surrounded by stronger offensive talents, because defenders can't cheat closer to him and become more susceptible to the dual-threat nature of his spot-up shooting and cutting excellence. He needs time before he can resume functioning like the offensive dynamo he was for the 'Wolves once they figured out how much better he was in off-ball scenarios.
Fortunately, Hoiberg seems to have the right perspective, as relayed by Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times:
"‘He's had some really, really good moments for us, including right when he came back when he was on the 20-minute plan. I thought he played great. That first game, he came out and hit his first shot and carried some momentum over those first three games. He had the Minnesota game, which is as good a performance as we've had all year from any individual player. He's had other good moments, as well...
"‘You have to see the overall package with the athleticism and the ability to shoot with range. I know he's looking forward to a summer to hopefully get that rhythm back. And we are, as well."
No matter how high the price tag rises, the Bulls can't get sticker shock. They desperately need offensive maestros in their lineup to pair with Markkanen, as well as deadly perimeter shooters who can provide a little more spacing. That Minnesota game the head coach mentioned, in which LaVine went for 35 points in a victory, should provide them with the necessary confidence.
But how much money will he make? The Bulls should be prepared to match a maximum offer sheet for their prized restricted free agent if necessary. But as Stephen Noh of The Athletic wrote in late February, a short-term extension would be preferable:
"The Bulls could offer LaVine something like $15 million annually for one or two years, and they’d have the advantage of still retaining his Bird rights if he did end up developing into a max-level player for his next contract. They could even give him a massive one-year deal, as the Lakers did with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s $18 million contract last summer. In doing so, the Bulls would keep their prized cap flexibility for 2019-20 and have a much better idea of what LaVine is worth post-ACL injury."
Regardless, they have to retain him.
Priority No. 2: Wing Depth
LaVine alone isn't enough on the wings. Nor is a LaVine-Nwaba combination, assuming the Bulls also bring back the former G League standout who's impressed all season with his commitment to every possession. They'll still have a dire need for more bodies—ideally, upside-laden ones—at shooting guard and small forward, given the current depth chart.
Per Rotoworld:
- Shooting guard: Zach LaVine (expiring), Justin Holiday, Antonio Blakeney (two-way contract)
- Small forward: Paul Zipser (non-guaranteed contract), Denzel Valentine, David Nwaba (expiring), Jarell Eddie (10-day contract)
Though we'd like to pretend LaVine's return can be Sharpied in, CBS Sports' Seth Davis taught us the danger of making such basketball-related assumptions during March.
A chance still exists that Holiday and Valentine could be the only incumbent wings on the 2018-19 roster. The Bulls could part ways with each non-guaranteed contract to free up even more cap space, fail to match a LaVine max and prove unwilling to pony up for the retention of Nwaba's services.
Obviously, this void has to be filled.
Draft Targets
And this is where it should get filled.
Projecting the top target is a tricky endeavor, solely because the Bulls could still fall so many different places in the lottery. They have the eighth-worst record in the NBA, but what if a few other tanking teams achieve unexpected victories during the season's stretch run? On the flip side, a few wins of their own could push them behind the New York Knicks and into the No. 9 slot. Then we still have to worry about the unpredictable bounces of pingpong balls. Anything could happen.
Ayton is a dream get for the Bulls, though he'd create some defensive issues in the frontcourt when paired with Markkanen. Doncic is talented enough to move Dunn to the backburners, but he wouldn't exactly be filling a need. And that's why Michael Porter Jr. is the ideal target, especially since he'd be a justifiable selection if Chicago vaults up in the standings, but he could also fall down into the six-to-eight range.
Porter's back remains a concern, though it's encouraging that he was at least able to suit up during the SEC Tournament and Missouri's opening-round loss to Florida State in March Madness. His motor may be questionable, as well.
But his talent isn't up for debate, no matter how much he'll be scrutinized between now and June 21. He fits the profile of a shot-creating, versatile wing scorer who can thrive as a No. 1 option in the NBA. As Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote while comparing him to Brandon Ingram:
"They can be played at the 3 or 4, and both have the ability to make tough shots away from the basket. Neither started off as playmakers. Porter will want to follow Ingram's off-the-dribble improvement, as right now he's more of a catch-and-shoot or straight-line driver.
"Even without tapping into ball skills, their mobility, tools and coordination still translate to easy baskets around the rim."
But if the Bulls don't have access to Porter, their second first-round selection will assist them.
They can go down a number of different routes, potentially picking either Mikal Bridges or Miles Bridges (note: not related) to fill the forward hole with their lottery pick, then go big later in the first round. They could also spring for Mohamed Bamba as a rim-protecting 5, then target Lonnie Walker, Troy Evans, Gary Trent Jr. or Jacob Brown in the 20s.
The possibilities are endless, so long as those first two selections add defense to the frontcourt and a scoring threat to the Windy City's limited wing population.
Free-Agency Targets
Let's keep dreaming big.
The top wings in this year's free-agency class are utterly unattainable. LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George aren't going to the rebuilding Bulls when so many other options will be available to them. But Chicago might have a chance to land the premier center. (A snowball's chance in hell is still a chance, right?)
What if the New Orleans Pelicans are encouraged by the success of this one-man-show version of Anthony Davis and don't want to pay for a DeMarcus Cousins return? What if other organizations are dissuaded by his Achilles rupture as he angles for a pact that will likely take him into his 30s? If the majority of the league is unwilling to hand this elite center a max contract, the Bulls could land him by dipping into their vast cap space.
This isn't likely, but it's an appealing scenario because of the potential frontcourt fit between Markkanen and Cousins. And Boogie's ball dominance would allow Dunn to focus on other responsibilities more suited to his skill set.
More likely: Going after one of the second-tier wings with untapped upside is a sensible strategy, so long as the price points don't skyrocket. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's burgeoning status as a three-and-D wing could make him a good fit alongside LaVine. The Bulls could think about throwing out an undersized set of wings with LaVine and Avery Bradley.
Even then, those might be overly optimistic pursuits. Chicago doesn't need to make any high-profile splashes, after all. Seeking smaller signings that hand larger roles to the many incumbent youngsters is a viable strategy that would help expedite the rebuild through improved internal development.
"There probably won't be too much activity on the Bulls' part regarding free agency," Spencer Davies opined for Basketball Insiders. "The focus will lay on improving their young core and getting guys who are just getting on the upswing in the pros. There are talents out there who fit the bill. It just all depends on what comes from the draft."
At the wing positions, expect to see the Bulls linked to youthful—but likely cheaper—talents such as James Ennis III, Jerami Grant, Mario Hezonja and Glenn Robinson III. If they're looking for more depth at the 5, they could take a similar course of action and target Alex Len, Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor.
These wouldn't be glamorous additions, but they'd be indications the franchise is moving in the right direction by prioritizing patience and growth over splashy signings that might not have the intended effect.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on March 21.
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