Despite LeBron James' Concern, the Cavs Are Still the Team to Beat in the East
January was not a good month for LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
They went 7-8 (including losses against the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers), were outscored by an average of 16 points, finished 27th in assist rate and brought in Mario Chalmers, Kirk Hinrich and Lance Stephenson for a workout that was partly designed to appease James—who publicly feuded with team owner Dan Gilbert and the Cavs front office through the media all month.
Kevin Love tweaked his back, JR Smith remains out with a thumb injury, and Cleveland’s defense has been abysmal with newly acquired Kyle Korver on the floor, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions in 266 minutes.
But does any of this actually matter?
We aren’t even at the All-Star break, and Cleveland is still in first place with three All-Stars—including one of the greatest players who ever lived—and a top-five offense. The Cavs obliterated the streaking Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points Wednesday night, and even through one of the most turbulent months of James’ career, Cleveland’s top lineup (LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Love, Iman Shumpert and Tristan Thompson) still outscored opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions with a defense that’d rank first in the league.
One general manager told Bleacher Report this year's turmoil pales in comparison to what Cleveland went through last season, when it "only" won 57 games and faced worse public criticism from its best player but still won the title. He believes health is the only thing that can stop the Cavs from making another deep run. Another general manager backed up the sentiment.
All that is true. A little over a year ago, the Cavs fired David Blatt, then watched LeBron tweet through his anxiety at being overshadowed by Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. He flew down to Miami for a midseason workout with ex-teammate Dwyane Wade at a time when Cavalier vibes could not be less copacetic.
They still won it all.
This year’s roster is thinner than that squad, but the fundamental core is still borderline unassailable in a seven-game series. Getting stops against Cleveland’s offense is like squaring up against a school bully, if said bully was a pack of mountain lions led by a grizzly bear. The Cavs are precise, chaotic and direct, with claws and fangs too sharp for all but one or two other teams in the league to match.
James is his own offensive system, a walking mismatch who constantly purveys the floor as if only he gets to wear night-vision goggles in a pitch-black gymnasium. His brain is a throbbing synthesizer of split-second decisions in a high-pressure environment; it wouldn’t surprise anyone who’s watched him play basketball if he made a dominant two-week run on Jeopardy!
Irving is the most gifted individual scorer James has ever played with, a torpedo covered in Vaseline who never (ever) looks nervous; few players shrug off heart-stopping moments like Cleveland’s franchise point guard. Love—in his best season since leaving Minnesota—remains two very important and rare things rolled into one: a stretch 4 who can draw double-teams on the block.
Each time these three head into battle, they’re backed up by overhead snipers. Cleveland’s supporting cast is an ensemble of unprecedented outside accuracy. Their job is to accentuate the top dogs, capitalize on opportunities and shave every part of their game down to the bare essentials (Shumpert isn’t here to run pick-and-rolls, throw lobs or create his own shot).
But defense is another question. Breakdowns are a regular occurrence, as are lackluster effort and inexplicable brain farts in the open floor. According to Synergy Sports, Cleveland ranks 30th in transition defense and 30th defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers. It ranks near the bottom of the league in contested shots and about average overall in defensive rating.
The Cavs' main problem isn't that they need another playmaker. The problem is they continue to lose games despite tallying points in bunches almost every time they step on the floor.
Here’s Thompson jogging back after a missed layup by Irving, pointing for a teammate to pick up Karl-Anthony Towns instead of sprinting to take care of the responsibility himself.
That’s easily correctable. Less so are the blunders in the half court, absent weak-side rotations that lead to layups and open jumpers. In the play seen below, the Cavaliers opt to trap Seth Curry in the pick-and-roll, allowing Dirk Nowitzki (a decent shooter) a free roll to the baseline. Instead of rotating over to contest the shot, Channing Frye sticks to Dwight Powell on the opposite elbow. In a vacuum, Cleveland is better off just switching this action and putting the 6'7" Korver on Nowitzki, but since it didn't, Frye needs to help out.
Cleveland’s defense wasn’t perfect last year, but it also wasn’t this lethargic and disorganized. There’s a good chance none of it matters, though. The playoffs and regular season are two different animals, and it’s reasonable to conclude LeBron and Co. are subconsciously coasting through this dreary stretch. Doubt their ability to get stops when it counts at your own peril.
But there are other concerns beyond the defense. James, who ranks second in the league in minutes played per game, averaged an outrageous 38.4 per contest in January. And that brings us to the primary reason why it might finally be appropriate to worry about Cleveland’s ability to make a deep playoff run: There’s almost no historical precedent for the toll King James’ body has taken this season.
The only players in league history to rack up so much on-court time past their 14th seasons while at least 32 years old are Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller and Wilt Chamberlain.
James also ranks first among all active players in minutes averaged throughout his career, and what he’s currently doing is basically unprecedented after you factor in his usage rate. Bryant and Malone are the only two who fulfilled that criteria; Malone's came during the lockout-shortened 1999 season, and one of those seasons resulted in a snapped Achilles tendon for Bryant.
“I don’t think it matters terribly much how well they are playing right now,” a league source told Bleacher Report. “Aside from the fact that it’s crazy they are playing LeBron as much as they are.”
This leads us to a handful of teams directly below Cleveland in the standings. Organizations like the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards are licking their chops, wondering if there’s a trade that can push them over the top.
League sources aren't sure how aggressive teams in the East will be but believe some general managers won't hesitate to pounce on an opportunity if it moves the needle right away.
The Wizards are blazing but have very little to offer and may be better off adding Ian Mahinmi if/when he’s healthy enough to contribute after the All-Star break, instead of mortgaging even more future assets for win-now gratification.
The Raptors are facing their own adversity, with various injuries to key players like DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Patterson, and also fell below .500 in January. But Kyle Lowry's pending free agency and imminent decline (he's 30 years old) narrows their window relative to some of the other teams they're up against.
Their defense allowed a staggering 108.3 points per 100 possessions in January, and head coach Dwane Casey has a laundry list of explanations as to why they've struggled.
"Transition defense has been one. Guarding the ball on the perimeter has been two. Rebounding has been three. Do you want me to keep going?" Casey said. "I tell you what...we've had our spurts, so that tells me a lot of teams in this league, including us, have fallen in love in thinking, 'OK it's a slugfest, an offensive slugfest.' But to win big in this league at important times, you've gotta be able to get stops.
"There's such an emphasis on the offensive end of the game. Shooting the three, getting to the rim, that I think it's contagious across the league. But the important—the relevant—teams get it done when they need to."
Toronto has a few interesting pieces to dangle (Norman Powell, Terrence Ross, Patterson, etc.), but moving on now would slice into the depth that makes this team so effective. A move for someone like Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap would fill a hole at power forward, but is that enough to fix the defense and provide enough firepower to take down Cleveland?
This is the best opportunity the Raptors have to get to the NBA Finals, thanks to mitigated minutes for Lowry and DeRozan, each in the prime of his career. Combine that with the fact Toronto's assets aren't as good as Boston's, and it's harder for the Raptors to overpay in any deal.
Speaking of the Celtics, January was a very good month in Boston. They finally look like the 50-plus-win team many thought they’d be, finishing fourth in point differential, fourth in winning percentage and third in offensive rating—all with Avery Bradley out for 11 of their 14 games.
But despite Boston's resilience—especially in crunch time—and a hopeful slump from intraconference rivals, this team, as currently constituted, remains too flimsy to crack the Finals, let alone defeat whichever powerhouse emerges from the Western Conference. Exploitable weaknesses that have proved to be uncorrectable with this personnel group still exist.
The Celtics' defense was just as bad as Toronto's in January and ranks 20th for the season. They still struggle on the defensive glass and may be too reliant on Isaiah Thomas’ brilliance down the stretch, where they really struggle to get stops in close games.
A league-leading 33 of their contests have come down to a five-point margin in the final five minutes (defined as clutch time by NBA.com), and the numbers suggest their offense (which ranks first in clutch time) has bailed out their defense (which ranks 22nd) over and over again.
So, do they make a trade to chase the ostensibly vulnerable Cavaliers now that they're only 2.5 games back in the standings and are in position to grab home-court advantage in the playoffs? Or do they sit back, tinker around the margins and head into the postseason more or less as they are? It's the most important question this organization has faced since they had to move on from Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
To take on a talented player like Carmelo Anthony or Nikola Vucevic would add long-term salary and eliminate Boston from this summer's free-agency bonanza, without the benefit of filling an immediate need. Those acquisitions don't make sense.
A blockbuster deal for someone like Jimmy Butler, DeMarcus Cousins or Paul George—pending what they'd give up—improves Boston's short-term championship odds but decreases its ability to compete at the highest level over the next decade and, more importantly, reduces its avenues to grow.
That leaves very few options. The Celtics can go after players on expiring contracts but must be wary of surrendering too much for someone who may be nothing more than a rental. The most logical target here—in terms of price tag, skill, fit and availability—is Orlando Magic forward Serge Ibaka, but it's unclear how much, if at all, he'd move the needle.
Due to his questionable long-term fit beside Al Horford, one league source laughed off the thought of Ibaka going to the Celtics before the deadline. Both big men can shoot threes and space the floor, but their rebounding and rim protection are already in decline, and it's fair to say both players will get worse offensively before they get better.
It's tempting to look at Cleveland and wonder aloud if this could finally be the year James falls off and fails to reach the Finals. But betting against him and his always splendid supporting cast hasn't been a wise decision for the past six years.
The Cavaliers have shown they can turn on their defense when it matters. LeBron has shown he can elevate his game to mythological heights when the world is watching. He won't be King forever, but for the time being, James still reigns.
All quotes in this article were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are recent as of Feb. 2 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
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