Does Fate of Los Angeles Clippers' Big 3 Ride on 2014-15 NBA Playoffs?
When the NBA playoffs begin, the Los Angeles Clippers, regardless of seeding and opponent, will be playing to keep their championship hopes alive.
They may also be playing for the right to keep their Big Three intact.
There is no refuting the on-court chemistry Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan share. At a time when different renditions of Big Threes—from the bought and paid for (Cleveland Cavaliers), to the drafted or developed (Portland Trail Blazers), to the formed and failed (Brooklyn Nets), to the new and unexpected (Golden State Warriors)—are everywhere, Los Angeles' trine ranks as one of, if not the absolute, best.
With their terrific trio on the floor, the Clippers are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per 100 possessions, which exceeds the league's best net rating by almost four points. Griffin, Paul and Jordan also represent 68.1 percent of the team's total victories (36.1).
They're important.
And expensive.
Both Paul and Griffin are under lock and key through the 2016-17 season, at which point they can exercise player options that will bring them back for 2017-18. The two of them will combine to soak up more than $40.3 million of what projects as a $68 million salary cap, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe.
That's 59.3 percent of the Clippers' total spending power gone. And it's gone before factoring in Jordan's free agency.
Earning under $11.5 million this season, Jordan is a contractual steal. In the most basic sense, he's also far from a flight risk. Though he can sign with the team of his choosing, the Clippers can offer him more money than any other suitor—an advantage they'll need to exploit if they intend on retaining him.
Often viewed as an explosive athlete with little end-to-end polish, Jordan has spent the entire season staking his claim as one of this summer's top free agents. He's not only due for a raise; he's in line for a max deal.
Jared Dubin deftly laid out Jordan's max-contract case for The Cauldron back in January:
"Nearly half the league will have upwards of $10 million or more in cap space, and that’s before factoring in cap-clearing deals that could be made in the next month or so before the trade deadline. Four years ago, Jordan got nearly $11 million a year under a much tighter cap, when his potential impact was more of a hope and a prayer than an actuality. Now that his influence is real, he’s surely in line for a hefty raise.
It’s not every day you see a 26-year old big man who can anchor a defense hit the open market. That’s the kind of scenario that just screams 'MAX CONTRACT,' and with the improvements he’s shown, the upside that may still remain and the major influx of TV money coming into the league shortly, he very well would be worth it.
"
Cap situations don't even begin to address his statistical value.
Jordan ranks eighth in block percentage, is tied for third in double-doubles, has the fifth-best defensive box plus/minus among qualified centers and is rebounding to historical degrees. If his numbers hold, he'll be just the second player to ever grab 24 percent of all available rebounds when on the floor while logging more than 25 minutes per game.
The other: Dennis Rodman.
It's not just likely Jordan commands a max contract. It's a formality. The Clippers' only saving grace may be the market. If financially flexible teams such as the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics aren't biting, this becomes a matter of squads such as the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks dumping salary to make a competitive offer. Either way, Jordan is in the max-deal discussion.
Tack that kind of payday on to the Clippers' books, and things get weird.
Players with seven to 10 years of service to their name are eligible for max deals that account for 30 percent of the total cap, per Larry Coon's CBA FAQ. While 30 percent of $68 million is $20.4 million, that figure isn't entirely accurate.
Max offers also factor in Basketball Related Income (BRI) and are usually lower than the mandated percentages. This year's max salary for the same type of player ($17,695,200) is roughly 28 percent of the $63.065 million salary cap.
So let's say that number remains relatively consistent heading into next season and set Jordan's salary for $18 million. The Clippers would have $58.3 million committed to their Big Three, or 85.8 percent of the projected cap.
Are they prepared to make that type of investment? When, in all likelihood, it means they'll pay the luxury tax for a third straight season, putting them on the brink of triggering the repeater tax for 2016-17?
Answering "yes" isn't so easy. Not even with owner Steve Ballmer's wealth and determination to spend whatever it takes looming large. Sure, this will be the fourth consecutive season in which the Clippers win more than 60 percent of their games, but they've failed to make a deep playoff run during that time.
Second-round appearances have been their ceilings in each of the three previous campaigns, and there's no guarantee that changes now. If anything, they look weaker than last year. Their top-ranked offense is still in place, but they are in the bottom half of defensive efficiency and, as of now, not in line for a top-four playoff seed.
“I know that whatever seed we get, it’s going to go down to the last game of the season," Jordan said of the team's postseason fate, per the Long Beach Press-Telegram's Robert Morales. "I’m not looking at it that much, we’re just trying to get as many wins as we can and get better as a team toward the end of the season.”
Finishing in fifth is actually the Clippers' best bet. It sets up a first-round date with the Portland Trail Blazers, whom they're 3-1 against, and ensures they avoid the Warriors in the second round.
Still, no matter where the Clippers end up, a deep playoff push will run through at least one of the San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets, be it in the first round, second round or both. And they're a combined 5-6 when facing those three.
Toss in their 1-3 record against Golden State, and they're 6-9 against the West's four most dangerous squads. If they finish in third or sixth, they'll have to upend two of them just to reach the Western Conference Finals.
In the event the Clippers fail to push past the second round with this star-studded core yet again, can they really, you know, stay the same? Or are they perhaps better off allocating Jordan's money elsewhere?
Counter point: What money?
The Clippers have $58.1 million in guaranteed salary on the books for next season. If you count the entire sum of Jamal Crawford's, Matt Barnes' and Jordan Hamilton's non-guaranteed deals, they'll have nearly $65.9 million devoted to a seven-player roster.
Minimum cap holds—financial placeholders worth a little more than $500,000 that account for unused roster spots under the 12-player floor—will drive that number above $67 million. To enjoy $1 million in cap space, if that, they'll need to renounce Jordan's rights.
Few things in life make less sense.
Now, the Clippers can also part ways with Hamilton, Barnes and Crawford, and then deal with that $58.1 million figure from before. But after factoring in five cap holds to get them at 11 players (one below 12), they'll have less than $8 million in maneuverability.
Replacing Jordan himself by doling out $8 million to one or more players is impossible. Banking on that same money to supplant him, their fourth-leading scorer (Crawford) and their lone competent small forward (Barnes) is just not happening.
Any offseason improvements the Clippers make will come through trades and internal improvement or by scraping the bottom of the free-agency barrel. This won't change. Jordan or no Jordan, the Clippers' next chance to become major free-agency players is in 2016, on the heels of a salary-cap boon.
Re-signing Jordan, then, is a must.
To be sure, there are worse spots the Clippers could be in. They have three superstars and remain in play for a top-two playoff slot. This could be the year they sneak into the Western Conference Finals.
What's most troubling is their lack of imminent flexibility compared to their surfeit of needs. Their bench ranks in the bottom three of both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to HoopsStats.com, and the small forward corps is getting manhandled nightly, per 82games.com.
Those are the chief concerns leading into the playoffs and will remain so long after they've ended. And there's no way around them for the time being.
In lieu of the means to overhaul the roster, the Clippers have Paul, Griffin and Jordan—a Big Three they're in no position to abandon irrespective of how fruitful or futile their latest postseason push becomes.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games on April 8 unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
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