Projecting the Memphis Grizzlies' Best and Worst 2015 NBA Playoff Matchups
While the Memphis Grizzlies are increasingly likely to take the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, they may be pondering a few possible playoff matchups. three games separate the third- and seventh-placed teams in the crowded West.
The Grizzlies are one of the best-equipped teams for the playoffs. Head coach Dave Joerger has found time down the stretch to tinker with the rotation and seems close to something he wants after bringing Tony Allen back into the starting lineup.
Joerger recently told The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery that Jeff Green's move to the bench is permanent.
Also, the Grizzlies found rest for Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Conley sat out four games from March 12 to 17, alleviating multiple ailments, including a right ankle sprain, as he told Tillery. Gasol sat out on March 12 against the Washington Wizards, and played just under 30 minutes against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday and 25 minutes against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday.
Memphis, the NBA's oldest team, has a core that's been together since 2009-10, a powerful frontcourt and an intimidating defense.
Still, of the teams the Grizzlies potentially could face in the first or second round, they can defeat two more easily than others and should hope to avoid a couple of other teams.
Best Matchups
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas appears to be the Grizzlies' most agreeable playoff matchup—and their most-likely first-round opponent.
First, consider the Rajon Rondo situation. Rondo and Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle haven't always been on the same page. On Feb. 24, they were seen yelling at each other during a game against the Toronto Raptors.
Carlisle brought him into his office before a 119-115 win against the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 16 and quizzed him on the team's offense.
While this isn't a new practice for Carlisle, the timing seems odd.
Rondo felt good about it. He was quoted by Mavs Moneyball as saying, "I've been studying with coach a lot. He called me in before the game and gave me a little test, and I think I continue to pass the test. We're on the same page a lot more throughout the game."
Indeed, Dallas has steadied recently on offense, scoring 119.7 points per 100 possessions in three games from March 13 to 18.
But they ran into problems trying to keep up with the Grizzlies on Friday, as they totaled just 102.9 in a 112-101 loss.
That leads to the other issue. Rondo has jolted the defense, but it might not be a big enough difference in a series with Memphis. Rondo has allowed 106 points per 100 possessions for the Mavs. Since they acquired him from the Boston Celtics on Dec. 18, the Mavericks are allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions, compared with 109 beforehand.
"I've been trying to preach defense and getting on the same page defensively as a team and just string continuous stops together," he told ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon.
Besides Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks don't have great defenders around Rondo. Chandler and Al-Farouq Aminu are their only players allowing fewer than 106 points per 100 possessions. Ultimately, Dallas hasn't fixed the interior defense issues behind Chandler that Grantland's Zach Lowe predicted after the trade.
This spells trouble against Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, who combined for 39.5 points per game as the Grizzlies won three of four clashes with Dallas this season.
The Mavericks currently sit in seventh place, but could rise in the standings if they heat up offensively. They host six of their last 11 games. Five remaining contests pit them against playoff teams.
The Trail Blazers are reeling without Wesley Matthews, losing five of their past eight games.
In an interview with CBSSports.com's Zach Harper, head coach Terry Stotts said of losing Matthews to a ruptured Achilles tendon, "It really affects our depth more than anything else. What Wes brings us with his three-point shooting, his defense, his enthusiasm, his toughness, and his intangibles of what you see in the box score but what you see in the locker room, timeouts and things like that."
Arron Afflalo has started in his place, but he can't replace all of Matthews' scoring. Afflalo has averaged 10.6 points per game on 39.2 percent shooting since the Blazers acquired him from the Denver Nuggets via trade at the deadline, including 12.1 per game on 38.8 percent shooting in eight games as a starter.
That's insufficient compared to Matthews' 15.9 per game on 44.8 percent from the field.
The Blazers don't have many complementary scorers to help plug the gap. Nic Batum is struggling, averaging 9.4 per game on 39.4 percent shooting. Steve Blake is a poor shooter, contributing 4.3 points per game on 37.8 percent shooting from the field.
That leaves it to Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge to shoulder the load. Lillard and Aldridge score 21.3 and 23.5 points per game, respectively. They posted 22.2 and 26.2 per game, respectively, in last year's playoffs.
But even if Lillard hits a higher gear in the playoffs, that may not be enough for the Blazers. Matthews was a difference-maker on defense. His 104 points allowed per 100 possessions didn't lead the team, but the Blazers allowed three fewer points per 100 with him on the floor, the best mark among rotation players.
They've allowed 113.1 points per 100 possessions since Matthews went down.
The chances of the Grizzlies and Blazers squaring off in the playoffs aren't great. If Portland, which has seven of their 14 remaining contests at home and five against playoff teams, manages to lose their five-game Northwest Division lead, they'd surely be in eighth.
Hence, Memphis, which won all four meetings this season, would require a fall to fifth place for this matchup to face Portland in the first round if the Blazers hold onto their spot or the second round if they drop to eighth and pull off an opening-round upset.
Worst Matchups
The Grizzlies may feel fine about a postseason meeting with the Spurs this year, having won two of the first three games.
However, Memphis won't manage to beat San Antonio the way they did in December. They succeeded from downtown, hitting 37 percent in the 117-116 triple-overtime triumph on Dec. 17 and 46.7 percent while downing them 95-87 on Dec. 30.
But the Grizzlies aren't as sharp from beyond the arc now as they were at the time. They've made 32.9 percent from long range since Jan. 7. Mike Conley, who is at 39.3 percent from three after making 32 percent since Jan. 14, likely wouldn't use the long ball to beat them—he's made 28.7 percent for his playoff career.
Also, the Spurs are entering playoff form after struggling through the first half. Gregg Popovich's group has won 10 of their past 12 games. Kawhi Leonard, who missed both losses to the Grizzlies, has averaged 20 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.9 steals over the last 10 games.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe said in naming Leonard one of his most watchable players, "Over the last three weeks, he has looked like a complete two-way terror — a 20-point scorer knocking down pull-ups and floaters while imprisoning whatever poor opponent happens to draw him on the other end."
After struggling through the first half of the season, Tony Parker is averaging 19.6 points per game over the past 11 games while hitting 54.5 percent from the field.
Fear is already rising regarding a potential Grizzlies-Spurs series. CBSSports.com's Matt Moore expressed such feelings via Twitter:
"Also if Memphis is facing the Spurs in any matchup, then I’ll panic.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) March 18, 2015"
The Grizzlies' frontcourt combination won't overwhelm the Spurs' deep group.
Tim Duncan is allowing 98 points per 100 possessions. Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney said, "After adjusting for teammate and opponent quality, Duncan rates as the single most impactful defender in the NBA. He has made a top-five defense of what, frankly, shouldn't be."
Tiago Splitter is allowing 101 points per 100 possessions, and that's a down year for him.
When healthy, Aron Baynes is a solid defensive backup, allowing 104.
This is the same group that shut down Gasol and Randolph two years ago, holding both below 41 percent shooting in a Western Conference Finals sweep and leaving the Spaniard sitting on the scorer's table, pounding it in frustration.
Memphis has more shooting options with Green, Vince Carter and Courtney Lee, all of whom will help the three-point attack, but it still might not be enough against the Spurs, who are fifth in the league from downtown.
The round in which the Grizzlies and Spurs could meet depends on how hot San Antonio remains through the remainder of the regular season. The Spurs, who sit in sixth place and play seven of their 13 remaining games at home, could erase the two-game gap between them and the Houston Rockets, setting up a possible second-round series.
If they stay strong enough to jump a spot but can't make up ground, it won't be until the conference finals.
The Grizzlies took the last postseason series with the Clippers, a six-game affair in 2013. Gasol and Randolph combined for 37.5 points per game while Memphis' defense suffocated L.A.
This Clippers team is different. Not only do they have a real coach in Doc Rivers, but the top-rated offense has a variety of options, even if Jamal Crawford misses the rest of the season, as Robert Morales of the The Daily Breeze reported he might.
Chris Paul remains one of the NBA's top point guards, averaging 18.8 points and 10.1 assists per game. While ranking him fifth in his MVP rankings, NBA.com's Sekou Smith said, "Paul has battled through an assortment of bumps and bruises the past month and still has played at an elite level."
Randolph may be a great rebounder, but DeAndre Jordan, who leads the league with 15.4 boards per game, is becoming one of the best on the glass in recent vintage. As ESPN Stats & Info tweeted, he's joined an elite quartet before the 70-game mark:
Jordan is also cementing himself as one of the league's best interior defenders, standing seventh in defensive rating at 99 points allowed per 100 possessions and fifth with a 5.3 percent block rate.
The Clippers are third in three-point shooting, with six players making 36 percent or better from long range.
J.J. Redick is in the midst of a career year, averaging 15.8 points per game while hitting 42.8 percent from beyond the arc.
"He's on fire, number one, but it also says that our guys understand that. They're playing off him," Rivers told Morales in a piece for the Los Angeles Daily News.
Blake Griffin, who is evolving into a complete superstar, has hardly missed a beat after returning from a staph infection. Griffin is averaging 18.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists over the past five games.
Unlike the previous two times the Clippers have met the Grizzlies in the playoffs, L.A. has some semblance of frontcourt depth. Spencer Hawes has been serviceable, averaging 6.3 points and 3.8 rebounds in 18.5 minutes per game.
The Clippers currently hold the fifth spot in the West, but they could meet Memphis in the first two rounds if the Spurs pass them. The chances are fair, with seven of their last 11 games coming on the road, but only four against playoff teams.
Statistics are current through March 22 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Tom Firme is a Memphis Grizzlies featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TFirme.
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