Denver Nuggets Looking for Direction at Franchise Crossroads
The Denver Nuggets are stuck, lacking some two bare necessities for NBA survival: identity and direction.
At the midpoint of the 2014-15 season, the Nuggets still don't know who they are. They have appeared as contenders on certain nights and cellar-dwellers on others. They have unloaded two rotation pieces already, but none prominent enough to confidently call them sellers.
It's been a roller-coaster year for the Nuggets, one that has left them in the worst possible position for an NBA franchise: mired in mediocrity.
"They've shown to be capable of putting some good basketball on the court," wrote Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post. "Unfortunately, they've put a bunch of inconsistent basketball on the court as well."
The Nuggets have had two five-game winning streaks and four losing streaks of at least three games. They already own victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies but have also dropped home games with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers.
That water-faucet resume has left Denver holding a forgettable 18-22 record, a disarming mark that can warp perceptions regarding life in the middle.
The Nuggets don't often embarrass themselves and enter each night feeling as though they have a realistic chance of leaving it victorious. This isn't a bottom-third team in either winning percentage (.450, tied for 17th) or net efficiency (minus-1.9 points per 100 possessions, 17th). Despite its battles with injuries and inconsistencies, Denver sits just five games out of a Western Conference playoff spot.
As frustrating as an average existence might be, it has a way of keeping hope alive.
"I feel like if we stay right here just a few games back until everybody gets healthy, we'll be able to make it into the playoffs or at least have a fighting chance," Ty Lawson told Dime Magazine's Jack Winter recently.
Lawson's thought process isn't hard to follow.
Denver just got valuable combo guard Randy Foye back from injury. Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee both appear to be nearing returns. Couple those comebacks with the rise of rookie center Jusuf Nurkic (9.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game in January), and an already well-stocked talent base is expanding by the day.
But the reality is that it might not be enough in the overcrowded West.
"The Nuggets are in a tight spot," Dempsey wrote. "The record needed to get to 49 or 50 wins—the fewest a team in the Western Conference would probably need for a playoff berth—would require the Nuggets to play .720 basketball the remainder of the season."
The Nuggets have shown they can be good, but they would need to be great in order to pull that off. There are only four teams in the entire league that have played better than .720 ball this season: the Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Portland Trial Blazers and Grizzlies. Denver has never even had a .700 winning percentage since joining the NBA in 1976.
Denver doesn't need to be perfect but has to play pretty close to it. That's challenging enough on its own, and it grows even more daunting when considering 10 of the Nuggets' next 15 games take place away from the Pepsi Center. That stretch includes road visits to the Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, red-hot Detroit Pistons and finally healthy Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Nuggets need to be at their best among many of basketball's best. That razor-thin margin for error actually becomes slimmer with the amount of moving parts that are quickly reshaping coach Brian Shaw's rotation.
"The Nuggets played 15 different lineups against the Timberwolves, and the combinations became more unfamiliar and more stifling offensively as the night went on," Dempsey observed following Denver's 113-105 home loss to Minnesota on Saturday.
Denver already looks different than it did entering the new year.
Over the past few weeks, the Nuggets have pulled off a pair of trades. Starting center Timofey Mozgov was shipped to the Cavaliers for two future first-round draft picks. Denver then swapped backup point guards with the Boston Celtics, sending Nate Robinson out for Jameer Nelson.
To be clear, these weren't fire-sale deals. The Nuggets needed to get a better look at Nurkic, and grabbing two first-rounders for Mozgov borders on grand larceny. Neither Robinson nor Nelson are needle-movers, but the latter might be a better fit for this roster given his proclivity for passing.
That being said, the Mozgov deal in particular shows a willingness to value future assets over present production. That's why Denver remains one of the most interesting teams to watch leading up to the trade deadline.
No one seems to have a good grasp on what the Nuggets will do next.
ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne reported that teams have been flooding the Nuggets with phone calls regarding veterans Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler. TNT's David Aldridge later added that Denver is shopping Chandler "hard" with an eye on acquiring more pieces for the future.
But Shaw denied that his club is looking to move the coveted wings. He stopped short of calling either player untouchable, but the coach said that the Nuggets aren't the ones originating these talks, per Dempsey:
"I just have to try to do a good job of assuring them that I'm not, and we're not, actively shopping them and putting them out there. Obviously calls come in, and we field calls. But we're not saying, 'Hey, we're trying to get rid of Arron, we're trying to get rid of Wilson.' That's not the case at all. That's all we can really tell them.
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Chandler even told Dempsey that he has been told he will not be moved.
Still, there needs to be more to this story. The Nuggets have to settle on a direction for this franchise and then stick to that plan.
If they want to make a run sooner rather than later, they need to package some of their trade chips together and go find some top-shelf talent. Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated reported that Denver has shown interest in Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez, whose back-to-the-basket offense would give this attack a new element.
Charlotte Hornets swingman Lance Stephenson might be another option. He played some of his best basketball with Shaw's assistance when both were with the Indiana Pacers, and there is some interest on Denver's end for a reunion, per Real GM's Shams Charania.
But if the West looks too deep for Denver to contend, it might need to hit the reset button. This roster is overloaded with win-now parts, a lot of which could be flipped for valuable future assets. Even if the Nuggets keep Lawson, Nurkic, Gallinari and Gary Harris off the table, they could still restock their shelves by selling off the likes of Chandler, Afflalo, Foye, McGee, Darrell Arthur and/or J.J. Hickson.
Denver could keep a decent foundation in place and grab enough rebuilding tools—draft picks, prospects and trade chips—to make a fairly rapid recovery.
If the Nuggets don't want to go to extremes, they could make a few minor moves without sacrificing any key contributors. Continuity has its perks, and Denver hasn't had much of a chance to assess this core at full strength. The problem with this route is that it might not make a big enough impact. The distance between the team's ceiling and basement could leave success-starved fans feeling claustrophobic.
But at least it would be doing something. Standing pat should not be an option—not with the likelihood of a one-and-done playoff showing at best or a low-level lottery pick at worst. Neither outcome would lead the Nuggets where they want to go.
That's assuming, of course, that Denver knows which direction it wants to head. Without crossing that bridge, the Nuggets will remain trapped in basketball purgatory.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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