Nikola Vucevic Helping Expedite Orlando Magic's Rebuild
Of the principal pieces dealt in the 2012 summer blockbuster among the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers, Nikola Vucevic is the only one still paying dividends for the team that traded for him.
Andrew Bynum's out of basketball, Dwight Howard's living comfortably with the Houston Rockets, Andre Iguodala has assumed a reserve role for the Golden State Warriors, and Arron Afflalo has been shipped back to the Rocky Mountains from whence he came.
Rather quietly, though, Vucevic has become one of the league's most efficient and productive centers, a claim illuminated by dominant outings against the Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls.
After holding his own against LaMarcus Aldridge last Saturday to the tune of a career-high 34 points and 16 rebounds, the USC product went toe-to-toe with Pau Gasol, totaling 33 points (16-of-24 shooting), 11 rebounds and four assists in Orlando's 121-114 win over the Chicago Bulls Monday night.
His signature performance was punctuated by this diabolical slam on the Spaniard:
Curation of posterizations aside, Vucevic has been downright dominant for stretches. To date, he ranks fifth among centers in player efficiency rating (21.73), per ESPN.com, and is one of five players averaging at least 18 points and 10 rebounds this season, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
| Anthony Davis | 24.1 | 10.4 | 31.19 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 23.9 | 12.3 | 26.76 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 22.9 | 10.5 | 21.72 |
| Pau Gasol | 19.0 | 11.4 | 22.62 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 18.8 | 11.1 | 21.73 |
Although the contrasting inside-outside nature of Vucevic's skill set defined his offerings throughout the first three years of his career, a higher concentration of looks inside of 10 feet has catapulted his efficiency into a new spectrum.
Along with Anthony Davis, Vucevic is the only other player converting at least 53 percent of his total shots while shooting more than 15 times per game, according to Basketball-Reference.
Making a nightly effort to establish optimal post position, Vucevic is now attempting 33.2 percent of his total shots inside of three feet and distributing a career-high 31.4 percent of his looks from 3-10 feet, per Basketball-Reference. Last season, he attempted 39.5 and 23.1 percent of his shots from those two ranges, respectively.
And just as Grantland's Zach Lowe discussed back in September, Vucevic is at this best when maneuvering and countering in the post: "Vucevic is a nimble post scorer for a behemoth. He's quick sliding around the floor, and he’s strong enough to seal deep position against almost anyone."
Speaking to NBA.com's John Denton, Vucevic discussed his possession-by-possession mindset as it pertains to carving out deeper operating space:
"I always try to get the deep position, but sometimes defenses do a good job of keeping me out and sometimes I get in there. I want to stay as close to the rim as I can because it makes my job easier and it makes it easier for the guards passing the ball to me. So I want to stay aggressive and get deep and that’s something I pay attention to doing. Hopefully I can stay down there, draw some fouls and keep doing it.
"
As the following shot charts from NBASavant.com illustrate, Vucevic has been making a more concerted effort to operate within the confines of the paint this season.
Here's what his rate of activity looks like this season:
And here's how it played out last year:
Toggle between the two, and it becomes evident Vucevic has been heeding the advice of head coach Jacque Vaughn to start his possessions closer to the rim.
"It makes the defense have to react in a different way than when he catches it farther from the basket and he has to get to the basket," Vaughn said, per Denton. "It gives them more time to double-team him and there are more dribbles and mistakes that could happen along the way."
To Vaughn's astute point, Vucevic is knocking down 60.8 percent of his looks when he shoots without dribbling, 47.1 percent off one dribble and worse than 32 percent on shots that require at least two dribbles, according to SportVU player tracking data.
But like so many young clubs, Orlando has struggled to develop synergy on offense. While Vaughn's squad grades out 15th in field-goal percentage (45.3) and seventh in three-point conversion rate (36.9), its 27th-ranked efficiency rating (98.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com) indicates there are developmental strides to be taken.
That said, general manager Rob Hennigan appears at least moderately pleased with the state of his team's rebuild, according to the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins:
"I do think we’ve made really good strides in a lot of different areas, and I think we have a group of players and a talent base that can serve us very well moving forward, and it’s our job moving forward to continue to push the program and develop the program and continue to place it on an upward trajectory. That’s our goal. That’s our job.
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At the center of that talent base lies Vucevic.
While fellow rebuilders in Boston and Philadelphia seek to cultivate franchise centerpieces, the Magic have already found theirs. And that's a major credit to Hennigan, who bought low on Vucevic's upside and had enough foresight to jump-start his franchise's reclamation process.
Orlando isn't going to wake up next week or next month and suddenly vault into the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Too much growth needs to occur before such fantasies morph into reality.
However, with a supporting cast that includes Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and Tobias Harris (for now) flanking a center Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers labeled an "All-Star" putting up "superstar and All-Star worthy" numbers, according to Robbins, it's hard not to be optimistic about Orlando's deliberate rebuild.
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