Post-Josh Smith Pistons Look Like Legit Eastern Conference Playoff Team
The Detroit Pistons are unbeatable now, leaving behind a trail of scorched earth as they torment the rest of the NBA during the post-Josh Smith era. If Brandon Jennings' game-winning floater against the San Antonio Spurs on Jan. 6 proved anything, it was that Motor City simply can't be touched.
Obviously, that may be going a bit far.
Throughout their sudden six-game stretch of unbeaten play, the Pistons have admittedly faced an easy schedule. Though they've been on the road for four of those six outings, their victories have come against the Indiana Pacers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings and Spurs. Only two of those wins are particularly impressive, and the nature of the Cavs outing is diminished because Kyrie Irving was out of the lineup.
But wins are wins. For a team that was just 5-23 before cutting ties with its struggling and overpaid forward, even a set of victorious performances against the Washington Generals, Fort Wayne Mad Ants, Arkansas Razorbacks, Fenerbahce Ulker, Oak Hill Academy and Philadelphia's finest YMCA contingent would have felt like a step in the right direction.
All of a sudden, the Eastern Conference playoffs feel like a legitimate possibility.
What's Improved Without Smith?
In a word: everything.
During his partial and final season with the Pistons, Smith was averaging 13.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. On the surface level, those seem like valuable and well-rounded statistics. Problem is, the method in which he acquired them was anything but valuable, as the current Houston Rocket shot 39.1 percent from the field and 24.3 percent from beyond the three-point arc.
When he was on the court, the Pistons could only muster up 97.3 points per 100 possessions, which would beat out only the Philadelphia 76ers on the leaderboard of offensive ratings. But between when Smith was on the bench and the games that have taken place since he was waived, Detroit has seen that number rise up to 110 flat, a mark that would actually leave the team at No. 5 league-wide if it were maintained.
Everything has opened up for the Pistons.
Spacing now exists, aided both by Smith's departure and Jodie Meeks' return to health. The sharpshooting wing player may not be a star, but by spacing out the court so well and giving the Pistons a legitimate option on the perimeter, he's allowed everyone to play in more typical roles. Kyle Singler and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, for example, have looked significantly more comfortable when they aren't serving as the only floor-spacers, and a slight decline in minutes has helped both young players grow more efficient.
The combination has left the bigs free to operate in the paint with plenty of time to create offense.
Greg Monroe actually hasn't improved at all since moving into the starting lineup, even seeing his scoring dip a bit, but the same can't be said about Andre Drummond. During his last six games, the franchise centerpiece has averaged 15.8 points, 16.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.2 blocks per contest while shooting a jaw-dropping 65.6 percent from the field.
Plus, he's playing more effective defense.
"I think, defensively, I'm playing a lot better, being an anchor for my team and really tipping balls around to get my guys shots," the center explained to reporters after he helped anchor a victory against the New York Knicks that pushed the unbeaten streak to four. "Really just being a better communicator on the floor."
As Vincent Goodwill Jr. wrote about the big man for the The Detroit News, this is a different Drummond than the Pistons saw at the beginning of the year:
"Drummond's offensive skill set is still very much a work in progress, but there's a clear difference in the way he approaches getting post-ups now compared to the start of the season. Before, he was almost too patient, waiting on double teams and appearing unsure of his moves—moves that are still in the infancy stages.
Now when he catches, he goes immediately against defenders, exploiting his greatest advantage, his quickness. NBA Hall of Famer Moses Malone made a living out of throwing the ball against the glass, just because he knew he could retrieve it and score better and quicker than the opposition.
Drummond has picked up that tactic.
"
But this drastic uptick in team performance isn't just about improvement from Drummond, nor does it fall solely on the shoulders of the now-departed Smith. Confidence abounds in the Motor City, just as is so often the case when a team figures things out and starts to experience the sweet nectar of outscoring the opposition.
"I think it's everybody being so unselfish," Brandon Jennings told reporters midway through this stellar stretch. "Everybody's making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they're passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We're being very unselfish."
Happiness is contagious.
What Needs to be Done?
Thank goodness for geography.
Because the Pistons are in the Eastern Conference, the weaker of the NBA's two halves, they still have a legitimate shot at the postseason. Racking up 23 losses in early January might doom them in the West, where the resurgent Oklahoma City Thunder are competing for the No. 8 seed with the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans. Those three teams all have between 16 and 18 losses, which is a big difference at this stage of the season.
However, the same simply can't be said for the part of the Association closer to the Atlantic Ocean.
At this point in the year, there are five clear-cut locks for the playoffs in the East.
The conference-best Atlanta Hawks have been playing at a remarkably high level, but their production still feels quite sustainable given the system that Mike Budenholzer has installed in Philips Arena. Slightly behind them come the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and surging Chicago Bulls, three teams that have been playing like elite squads and aren't going anywhere in the near or distant future.
We'll go ahead and call the Cavaliers locks as well. Though they haven't exactly looked the part of title contenders, they're still above .500 after going 2-6 in their past eight games. Plus, LeBron James will eventually be back in the lineup after he fully rests his strained knee and lower back.
That leaves three spots, and it's not exactly a strong group of candidates competing for them.
The young Milwaukee Bucks are hanging tough, sitting at 18-18 after a close loss to the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night. But they shouldn't finish the season with more wins than losses, as teams are beginning to figure them out, and they'll eventually feel the pain of losing Jabari Parker—and maybe Larry Sanders as well, depending on how that saga plays out.
Behind them are the surging Brooklyn Nets and free-falling Miami Heat, two teams that are rather difficult to be confident about. But if the season ended right now, they'd both be in the postseason, edging out the Indiana Pacers and holding a larger advantage over the Orlando Magic and Rajon Rondo-less Boston Celtics.
Basically, the Heat are on pace to earn the No. 8 seed with just 35 wins. That's not a tough number to reach at all. Even if we tighten the standards a bit and claim that it will take 38 victories to advance past the regular season, as it did last year for the Hawks, that's still doable for these Pistons.
How It's Possible
"If you think about the way the East is shaped now, you win five in a row—six, seven—you have a chance to still get in the eighth spot," Jennings told MLive.com's Brendan Savage on Jan. 2. "We're still in the beginning of the season."
Well, the streak is now up to six games. The Pistons definitely have a chance.
According to my FATS projections (full explanation here), Detroit will end the 2014-15 campaign with a 32-50 record. Obviously, that's not going to be good enough for them to surpass any of the eight current playoff teams in the East.
However, that number is misleadingly low.
It factors in every game during the season, when we should clearly be focusing on what's happened since Smith has left the franchise. That's a much smaller sample of data to work with, but as ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton explained on Twitter after the Pistons took down the Spurs, sample-size arguments don't only work when you disagree with the conclusion:
During the part of the season in which the now-departed forward suited up for Motor City, the team played like a 32-win squad, though it obviously underperformed on those expectations since the Smith-led Pistons were on pace to win just 15 games. But in the six outings since he's left, Detroit has played like a 63-win team.
Seriously.
If they keep up that pace (which is highly unlikely, as the underlying numbers were generated against an exceedingly weak slate of opponents), the Pistons will finish the season with a 48-34 record and do far more than sneak in as a No. 8 seed. After all, they only need to play at a 46-win pace from this point forward to achieve the 38 victories we've deemed necessary for the postseason.
"After the All-Star break, that's the beginning of the second half of the season. We've still got 22-24 games left before the All-Star break. Why not just make a big run at it?" Jennings asked rhetorically, via Savage.
Why not, indeed?
The Pistons aren't going to go undefeated during the remaining portion of the season. They're inevitably going to regress slightly from their ridiculous pace over the last six games.
But the playoffs aren't exactly a pipe dream.
Given the way this team has improved, the confidence it's shown recently and the luck of playing in the Eastern Conference, the Pistons may as well start trying to sell some playoff tickets to their fans. There are no guarantees yet, but the postseason is well within the realm of realistic possibilities.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Jan. 7's games.
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