Memphis Grizzlies' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for January
The Memphis Grizzlies will likely start the new year on unsure footing after a slippery finish to December.
They ended a four-game losing streak Saturday, but they still could finish 2014 tied for fourth in the Western Conference after standing atop the West on Dec. 18 if the San Antonio Spurs outshoot them Tuesday.
Hence, January could make a difference regarding whether the Grizzlies are contending with the best at the All-Star break. A poor month could put them outside the top four with a tough road to get a home-court playoff spot down the stretch.
The upcoming month presents some forgiveness. Eight of their 16 games will pit them against losing teams. After playing six of the first eight contests on the road, the Grizzlies enjoy a five-game home stand.
Memphis will have three back-to-back sets. Twice the Grizzlies will get multiple days of rest between matches.
Enticing games include a Jan. 7 matchup against the hot Atlanta Hawks and a Jan. 31 battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Take a look at previews for these and other games in the coming month, as well as the full January prediction.
Statistics are current through Dec. 27 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.
Week 1 (Jan. 1-4)
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The Grizzlies have struggled without Zach Randolph, losing three of four games.
As The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery tweeted, there's no return date as Randolph recovers from a sore knee. Head coach Dave Joerger said Randolph isn't feeling comfortable pushing off the knee.
Courtney Lee acknowledged to Tillery that the team is missing Randolph, saying (subscription required), "(We're missing his) rebounding, his scoring, his leadership out there."
If he remains out, his absence would put Memphis at a disadvantage inside against the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday at the Staples Center.
The Lakers are decent on the boards, ranking 15th. Jordan Hill averages 8.3 rebounds in 29.2 minutes per game. Former Grizzly Ed Davis pulls down 7.2 boards in 23.2 minutes per game, and Kobe Bryant crashes the boards, grabbing 5.1 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have a 5.3-per-game rebounding deficit in the last four games, grabbing 46.7 percent of available boards.
With a strong showing from Bryant and the Lakers winning the battle on the glass, the Grizzlies will take a tough loss to this squad drifting toward a rebuilding period.
The next day brings another game with a struggling team as the Grizzlies visit the Denver Nuggets. One wouldn't expect Randolph to return. As Joerger mentioned in the above article, he wouldn't sit the first and then play the following contest in a back-to-back.
That doesn't bode well against a team that's third in offensive-rebounding percentage and 10th in defensive-rebounding percentage.
Also of interest is Ty Lawson.
Like Mike Conley, Lawson has been a borderline All-Star. This isn't one of those years. He's struggling as a shooter, posting 15.8 points per game on 40.8 percent from the field. Ergo, he's deferring to others a bit more, taking 0.3 fewer shots per 36 minutes and placing second with 10.4 assists per game—1.6 more than last year.
Leaning on his teammates will allow Lawson to overcome difficulties he's faced previously against Memphis. That and the triumph on the boards will lead to a Nuggets victory.
Record prediction: 0-2
Week 2 (Jan. 5-11)
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The Grizzlies start the week with a Monday match against a listless New York Knicks team. The Knicks haven't settled into the triangle offense, and they're next-to-last in pace at 89.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
In suggesting Tex Winter's signature system should be retired, Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy described New York as "disjointed within the offensive framework."
The Grizzlies' perimeter defenders will seize upon this half-court disorder to force turnovers and dump the Knicks.
Two days later, Marc Gasol and Al Horford meet in Atlanta for a showdown between two of the game's best centers.
Horford and Gasol will not have matched up in 700 days due to the Hawks front man's absence with an abdominal tear. When they last met on Feb. 6, 2013, Horford stacked 17 points and 11 rebounds in a 103-92 home win against Memphis. He helped contain Gasol, who had 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting.
At the time, the Grizzlies lacked direction a week after trading Rudy Gay.
Now, both teams are contenders near the top of their respective conferences. The Hawks have won 14 of 16 since getting used to having the Dominican big man in the mix. Horford is scoring 15.1 points per game on 51.4 percent shooting in that time.
Atlanta might not be as hot in this match, since it will be coming off a three-game West Coast road trip and Memphis will be the third straight Western contender the Hawks face after the L.A. Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers.
Gasol and the Grizzlies will take advantage of this weariness to rout the Hawks.
Fortunately for the Grizz, they get a rest day before playing the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans' size and toughness inside with Anthony Davis and Omer Asik poses one of the biggest challenges to the Grizzlies' duo of Gasol and Randolph.
Memphis slogged through the first two-and-a-half quarters in its home game against New Orleans on Nov. 3 before hitting its stride and claiming a 12-point victory. This time, Davis' crash toward the basket will overwhelm the Grizzlies.
That Sunday, Jan. 11, Memphis should re-establish its footing at home against the Phoenix Suns. The Grizzlies have won all five games against the Suns since Jeff Hornacek took the helm in the Grand Canyon State, including a 102-91 win on Nov. 5.
Suns.com's Matt Peterson quoted Hornacek regarding Phoenix's 18 turnovers as saying, "You knew [Memphis] was going to come out and really focus, defensively. We got careless with the ball."
As the Suns are 17th in turnover rate, the Grizzlies can upend them by following the same script.
Record prediction: 3-1
Week 3 (Jan. 12-18)
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After resting two days, Gasol and Co. will face their old head coach, Lionel Hollins, who now leads the Brooklyn Nets. Hollins led the Grizzlies to three playoff appearances and their first Western Conference Finals series, improving their winning percentage each year.
His unhappy parting with the Grizzlies in June 2013 left him with a bitter taste for the organization. In his most recent rumination about the franchise, Hollins told the New York Daily News of Grizzlies owner Robert Pera, "I didn't have a problem with the owner in Memphis. I never knew him."
Surely, Hollins will have his old wounds reopened when the Grizzlies come to Brooklyn.
As tightly as he orchestrated the "grit 'n' grind" defense while coaching Memphis, Hollins will be unable to beat it. The Nets have struggled offensively under his guidance. They're among the 10 worst teams in offensive rating, field-goal percentage and offensive rebounding. Deron Williams is in the tank, scoring 15 per game on 39.9 percent shooting.
After defeating the Nets, the Grizzlies will move down the Atlantic Coast to knock down a rebuilding Orlando Magic team on Friday, Jan. 16.
Hopefully, Dave Joerger can keep starters from playing 30 minutes in Orlando before heading home for a test against the Portland Trail Blazers the next day.
By going in fresh, the core trio of Conley, Gasol and Randolph should hit a stride similar to when they downed the Blazers 112-99 in Portland on Nov. 28.
Record prediction: 3-0
Week 4 (Jan. 19-25)
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In their second of five straight at the FedEx Forum, the Grizzlies welcome another tough contender in the Dallas Mavericks on Jan. 19.
Rajon Rondo was as ball-heavy as ever in his first four games with Dallas, averaging 13.3 points on 14.3 shots per game and holding a 25 percent usage rate. He has 8.8 assists to four turnovers per game.
Dirk Nowitzki said Rondo is just getting used to his new team, per Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko.
"He's starting to understand when he needs to be aggressive, when to shoot when they go under (the screens) and he's obviously got the passing gene that you need as a great point guard," Nowitzki said. "So I think he looks pretty sharp and we got to get used to each other even more as the competition gets stiffer."
Rondo should be comfortable enough with the Mavericks in three weeks to run the offense fluidly enough to beat a strong team. He's aided by Tyson Chandler's presence at the rim, whose knack for getting putbacks helps give the Mavericks a five-point-per-game advantage in the paint, as Sefko notes.
At normal strength, Dallas' offense will overrun Memphis' defensive attack.
On Jan. 21, the Grizzlies host a Toronto Raptors team that can't go long without being affected by the loss of DeMar DeRozan, who tore his left adductor longus tendon Nov. 28. Per the Toronto Sun's Mike Ganter, the Raptors haven't set a return date for DeRozan.
In winning 10 of 14 games without DeRozan, the Raptors are scoring 117.9 points per 100 possessions.
However, only four of those were against teams with winning records.
Soon, Toronto will no longer be shielded from scoring challenges without DeRozan. As Toronto faces Memphis in the second of three road games, the Grizzlies will limit the Raptors' attack in a win.
After two days off, the Grizzlies finish the week with an easy home win against the Philadelphia 76ers. This will be much different from their Dec. 13 contest in Philadelphia when Conley and the crew started the game tired on the second half of a back-to-back before rallying for an overtime win.
Record prediction: 2-1
Week 5 (Jan. 26-31)
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When the Magic visit the Grizzlies on Jan. 26, the possibility of Orlando running with the Grizzlies might be interesting.
The Magic are next-to-last in scoring average, but have a few strong shooters in Tobias Harris, Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier. Ben Gordon has rediscovered his game at age 31, scoring 7.5 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting.
With their size advantage, the Grizzlies will gain separation from the Magic by the third quarter en route to victory.
Two days later, the Grizzlies will get a rematch with the Mavericks in Dallas, a week removed from a loss to them in Memphis. With time to review the Mavericks' play with Rondo, the Grizzlies will recover and contain their offensive express for a win.
At full strength, Randolph and the Grizzlies will fight the Nuggets at home on the boards on Jan. 29. Randolph's inside toughness should lift Memphis to victory.
Two days later, Memphis renews its rivalry with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first showdown featuring the Thunder's key scorers, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, since falling to them in the first round of the 2014 playoffs.
The Thunder are on a tear with Westbrook healthy, winning 10 of their last 13 games. In that time, he's scoring 30.2 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting.
"He's leading us every night," Thunder head coach Scott Brooks told The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry. "Since he's been back he's been really good, and he's only going to get better as he gets comfortable with everybody on the court."
If both Westbrook and Durant are healthy, Oklahoma City will be merciless in defeating its nemesis as the Thunder rally to make up for a lost first month.
Record prediction: 3-1
Final January Prediction
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The Grizzlies won't get a solid start to January without Randolph, who boosts the team with scoring and rebounding. But his time off could help him ward off the funk he's entered starting the calendar year the past couple seasons, shooting below 44 percent in that month since 2012-13.
Entering 2015 fresh would allow Randolph to amply help the Grizzlies' inside play.
Memphis has been strong at home this year at 12-4. A strong home stand in the latter part of the month will help the team firm its standing in the conference race.
Losing to the Thunder won't damage the Grizzlies for the stretch run. Besides, the Grizzlies lost three of four to Oklahoma City last year before pushing it to seven games in the playoffs.
Winning 11 January games will keep Joerger's squad battling in the top three or four in the West.
Record prediction: 11-5
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