Portland Trail Blazers' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for December
The Portland Trail Blazers have started out the 2014-15 season in strong fashion and should look to close out the calendar year in a comparable manner.
With an 11-3 record thus far, the Blazers have a relatively easy schedule ahead. Just six games through December will come against teams above .500 (with two games against a certain opponent), while 10 games will come against teams below .500.
To this point, Portland is just 3-3 against teams with the former record. It has done well to dominate inferior squads though, currently holding an 8-0 record against teams on the opposite end of the range.
The Blazers have enjoyed an easy schedule to this point, playing nine of their 14 games on their home court at the Moda Center/Rose Garden, but they have 10 games on the road over the next month, including a stretch of five straight.
Portland has been too much to handle early on, ranking as one of the NBA’s best teams on both ends of the court. Few can boast such distinction both offensively and defensively, but the Blazers have asserted themselves as such.
It’ll come in handy to end the year, as we review Portland’s schedule on a week-to-week spectrum through December. From there, we’ll take a look at the top matchup in addition to how the Blazers might fare record-wise for each week.
And then (oh yeah, there’s more), we’ll gather it all up and settle on how Portland might end its year.
Let’s go, Rip City.
Week 1: Dec. 1 to Dec. 7
1 of 6
Dec. 2 vs. Denver Nuggets (Road)
Dec. 4 vs. Indiana Pacers (Home)
Dec. 7 vs. New York Knicks (Road)
Key Matchup: Indiana Pacers
The Blazers start out December with a mildly easy schedule.
Portland has already defeated the Denver Nuggets twice—first in a 116-100 victory on Nov. 9 and again three nights later with a final score of 130-113.
Since then, the Nuggets have gone 5-1, steadying the ship after a dismal opening to the season. Despite this, the Blazers should succeed once again this time around. Denver matches up very well with Portland but doesn’t have the defensive discipline to contain its offense.
The Nuggets allow 104.8 points on 44.8 percent shooting, in addition to 35.2 percent shooting from three-point range. The Blazers made 16 three-point field goals in both of the previous two games, which is indicative of their success. We should expect a similar output in the coming weeks.
Neither the Pacers nor the Knicks have had much luck this season, with records of 6-8 and 4-11, respectively.
New York has struggled to implement the triangle offense, ranking No. 25 in the NBA at 94.8 points per game. The Knicks are also in the same boat as the Nuggets, struggling to contain opposing teams, who average 99.0 points per contest on 45.5 percent shooting.
Their biggest weakness, however, is one of the Blazers’ strengths. New York allows 9.7 made three-point shots per game, ranking No. 27. Just the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers are worse in doing so.
While Portland might have a field day from the outside against the Nuggets and the Knicks, it may not be the case against the Pacers.
Indiana has been one of the better defensive teams in the league for quite some time. That trend has continued this season, to a certain extent, despite the Pacers playing without some of their best players in Paul George, David West and George Hill.
Various maladies have impacted Indiana’s success this season, but its defense has kept the team from drowning. The Pacers allow just 94.4 points per game (No. 4), with just 6.9 three-point field goals on 33.9 percent shooting. That’s good and all, but Indiana is No. 27 in the league in points per game at 92.4 on a miserable 42.6 percent shooting.
As such, Portland’s defense should work well, while the offense will need a considered approach.
If their shooting isn’t there and the Blazers opt for an inside-out approach, they will still face the defense of center Roy Hibbert. His 7’2” frame is imposing in the paint, which will make the interior scoring of LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez and Chris Kaman a tad difficult.
In any case, Portland should breeze through the first week of December, though the Pacers will certainly get the team's attention. Even so, the NBA is all about matchups, and the Blazers have the edge over the watered-down roster of Indiana.
Predicted Record: 3-0
Week 2: Dec. 8 to Dec. 14
2 of 6
Dec. 9 vs. Detroit Pistons (Road)
Dec. 10 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (Road)
Dec. 12 vs. Chicago Bulls (Road)
Dec. 13 vs. Indiana Pacers (Road)
Key Matchup: Chicago Bulls
So begins Portland’s road trip.
Similarly to the Pacers, Detroit just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with its defense. The Pistons average only 92.2 points as a team, shooting 41.0 percent from the field and 34.1 percent from long range.
The Timberwolves, on the other hand, have scored well but have been unable to play a lick of defense. Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in offense but plummets defensively like Wile E. Coyote with one of his ill-fated anvil schemes.
And Damian Lillard will be the Road Runner.
The Wolves allow 110.3 points per game, with teams shooting absurd percentages of 51.1 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from beyond the arc.
For a team that is ranked No. 6 in the NBA in scoring, the Blazers have the potential to, well, score.
Like, a lot.
As such, just the Pacers and the Bulls appear as worthy opponents during the second week of December (apologies to Detroit and Minnesota). Both are competent defensive squads, with the latter primed as the top matchup for the week.
Portland crushed Chicago 105-87 on Nov. 21, though it was against a squad that lacked two of its better players in Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol.
Both were back in action in the Bulls’ most recent game against the Utah Jazz on Nov. 24, so it’s assumed they’ll both play in the future matchup.
In retrospect, that would make things much more difficult for Portland, both offensively and defensively, as the quickness of Rose and the low-post brilliance of Gasol give Chicago a much different look compared to the Blazers' recent win.
But that’s assuming the injury bug that’s plagued Chicago to open the season quits biting.
Anybody have any repellent?
Predicted Record: 3-1
Week 3: Dec. 15 to Dec. 21
3 of 6
Dec. 15 vs. San Antonio Spurs (Home)
Dec. 17 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Home)
Dec. 19 vs. San Antonio Spurs (Road)
Dec. 20 vs. New Orleans Pelicans (Road)
Key Matchup(s): San Antonio Spurs
Hey, Rip City. It’s payback time.
Well, hopefully.
It will be the third week of the month that will challenge Portland the most. And it’s mainly due to the fact that the Blazers will face the Spurs on two separate occasions.
These teams last faced each other during the 2013-14 playoffs, as Portland advanced to the second round for the first time in more than a decade. It was short-lived though, as an experienced (and eventual champion) San Antonio team taught the young Blazers a lesson, winning the series 4-1.
Portland is a much different team this time around, playing stellar defense (first in opponent three-point percentage) and boasting an equally potent offense.
The Spurs started slow but have won four in a row, currently holding a 9-4 record. Their defense is one of the best on offer, allowing a league-best 91.3 points on 42.8 percent shooting. San Antonio also holds opponents to just 28.2 percent from long range, limiting teams to 5.7 made field goals from distance.
Having said that, the Blazers actually have a statistical edge defensively. Portland does allow 95.3 points but on 41.9 percent shooting from the field and 28.7 percent from deep.
Both games will be interesting contests, as well as tests for the Blazers. It will measure how far this team has come since last season’s early playoff exit, and whether or not Portland’s current play is by means of actual improvement.
Per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian, Lillard remarked on what the Blazers absorbed: "The greatest thing for us was losing to the Spurs, because we got to see what brand of basketball makes you successful and we got to see fresh body after fresh body and guys coming in comfortable against us. I think that's what we're getting to.”
Games against the Bucks and Pelicans are sandwiched around the latter matchup with the Spurs. Both are around the middle of the league defensively, though New Orleans appears as a bigger challenge.
With superstar Anthony Davis destroying the league, Portland will again have to make a very concerted effort. The Blazers topped the Pelicans 102-93 on Nov. 17, but it required a dramatic comeback from a 16-point deficit.
It’s assumed Portland is pretty hopeful another comeback isn’t required, though it has the ability to do so if necessary.
But just because you can, it doesn’t mean you should.
Predicted Record: 2-2
Week 4: Dec. 22 to Dec. 28
4 of 6
Dec. 22 vs. Houston Rockets (Road)
Dec. 23 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (Road)
Dec. 26 vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Home)
Dec. 28 vs. New York Knicks (Home)
Key Matchup: Houston Rockets
When the Blazers and the Spurs faced each other last, it was miserable. When the Blazers last saw the Rockets, however, it was pandemonium.
It could have easily been Houston vs. San Antonio in the second round of the 2014 playoffs, but a last-second three-point dagger from Lillard broke the Rockets’ hearts.
With Houston center Dwight Howard out indefinitely, courtesy of ESPN.com, the Blazers could face an incomplete squad. Howard has missed the last three games, and his future is uncertain due to a sprained knee.
However, the Rockets have remained a potent offensive team with or without their big man. Houston leads the league in three-point field goals made per game, sinking 12.1 per game.
Per Basketball Reference, the highest average prior to this season was by New York during the 2012-13 season at 10.8 made three-point shots per game.
As such, the Rockets are shooting from beyond the arc at a historic rate.
It’s a good thing the Blazers are currently the No. 1 team in defending the three-point line then.
Portland has made a determined effort to compete defensively this season, per Jeff Caplan of NBA.com, with head coach Terry Stotts calling it “a commitment.” He went on:
"We can't rely on our offense. We were first in offense in the first part of the season and then there was a drop significantly in the second half and our defense kept us in position to win games. I think everybody on our team realizes that for us to make the next step it's going to come by maintaining the level of offense that we had last year and becoming a top 10 defensive team.
"
The Blazers have done just that so far, which will be a turning point against a team like Houston.
The Thunder and the 76ers both rank dead last in their respective conferences, with the former missing their two best players. However, according to ESPN.com, both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook practiced recently.
Head coach Scott Brooks said both of his All-Stars “looked good,” but will need to be “evaluated and we'll go from there.”
Portland’s matchup against Oklahoma City is less than a month away, so there’s plenty of time for either Durant or Westbrook (or both) to make a return.
Obviously, that complicates things.
There are still factors, like both players readjusting to competing and the team changing to accommodate them, so the Blazers may be able to deal a strong blow with the Thunder still dazed.
The Knicks shouldn’t be too much trouble, especially compared to squads like Houston and OKC.
Predicted Record: 4-0
Week 5: Dec. 30 to Fin
5 of 6
Dec. 30 vs. Toronto Raptors (Home)
Key Matchup: Who Else?
Portland will end the calendar year at home, facing the Eastern Conference-leading Raptors.
Toronto has done a notable job of executing a strong offense while simultaneously playing a robust defense. The Raptors rank No. 2 in points per game at 106.7 per game and check in at No. 6 in opponent points per game at 95.1.
Led by Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, Toronto sports an 11-2 record, which is tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the best in the NBA. The team is very well put together overall, exhibiting a solid starting lineup and a potent reserve unit.
Just like the Blazers.
The Raptors aren’t smothering defensively, allowing 45.2 percent and 34.9 percent from the field and long range, respectively. Their lower opponent scoring average can be attributed to their ease in forcing turnovers, where Toronto is tied for No. 2 at 16.6 per game.
It will mean Portland must be extra careful with the basketball in order to finish possessions strong and hit shots.
In addition, the Blazers match up well with the Raptors position-wise.
It will be an interesting matchup to say the least, as well as another test for Portland. Despite the lesser competition in the Eastern Conference, the Blazers will be facing a top-tier group that has topped powerhouse squads like the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Grizzlies.
But Portland will look to end the year on a high note regardless and has the necessary tools to do so.
Predicted Record: 1-0
How Will Portland End 2014?
6 of 6
Overall, the Blazers have struggled against potent opponents while bullying those laboring teams that are looking to improve.
The tougher squads Portland will face—the Spurs and Bulls—will be primed and ready to turn their seasons around after starting off on the wrong foot.
Some, like the Rockets and Pelicans, will be looking to retaliate after succumbing to the Blazers’ brilliance at some point.
In addition, the Thunder and the Pacers will still pose a challenge despite lacking their usual firepower. That isn’t to say Portland might fall to either, but neither should be taken lightly.
Though that should be said for any and every opponent, as each team looks to compete and emerge victorious on any given night.
But in most cases in December, the victorious team will be the Blazers.
Final Predicted Record: 13-3
NBA team statistics courtesy of ESPN.com, unless otherwise noted.
Hey, Rip City! Follow me on Twitter: @jjvannuccini
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