Time to Stop Sleeping on Milwaukee Bucks
Not one aspect of the Milwaukee Bucks' start to 2014-15 was planned or projected—not the moxie or mettle with which they carry themselves, not the wins they've collected, not the rhythmic sounds of hope heard with every dribble, made basket and deflected pass.
Yet, despite a roster dominated by youth, inexperience and unknowns, Milwaukee is climbing the Eastern Conference ladder, rung by rung, win by win. And while this sizzling start may be a momentary respite from unavoidable growing pains and the doldrums-dwelling defeats that typically follow, it's important to acknowledge an equally, if not more likely, consequence of this remarkable rise: permanence.
These Bucks, caveats and all, are not to be slept on, underestimated or expected to vanish from the postseason picture they've painted themselves into.
Stunning Beginnings
Relatively small sample sizes are not nearly enough to block belief. The Bucks have earned consideration beyond the usual early-season anomalies—particularly on the defensive end.
Opposing teams are tallying just 97.7 points per 100 possessions against this defense, the fourth-best mark among all NBA teams. Those ahead of the Bucks include the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors, all of whom are title contenders.
It's this defense that helped carve out victories against the highly regarded offense of the Miami Heat on Nov. 16.
Perimeter presences such as the crazy-long Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jared Dudley contest shots in volume, closing out on shooters with composed precision rather than fevered panic. Offenses are shooting just 33.6 percent from deep against the Bucks defense; the average team is shooting north of 35 percent from beyond the rainbow this season.
Paint-policers such as Larry Sanders, Zaza Pachulia, John Henson and, at times, Antetokounmpo form consistent blockades against dribble drives, pick-and-rolls and all point-blank opportunities. Though they don't block shots in unheard-of volume, the Bucks do rank seventh in rim protection and are holding opponents to just 33.8 percent shooting in the paint (fourth).
A healthy Sanders is providing the impetus for a defense that ranked 29th in efficiency last season. Opponents are shooting just 44.9 percent against him at the rim, and the Bucks are relinquishing just 93.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, according to NBA.com (subscription required). That, for the record, would be the equivalent of the second-best mark in league history.
Free from worry on the defensive end, it's the offense that threatens to terminate the Bucks' blistering beginnings. The Bucks rank 25th in efficiency, they don't shoot the three-ball well (30.4 percent) or enough (18.9 attempts per game), and Brandon Knight is the only player averaging more than 13 points per game (17.9).
Head coach Jason Kidd's rotations, while effective for defensive purposes, aren't helping. Seven players are logging more than 20 minutes per game, and 10 are above 17.
This attempt at succeeding by committee is failing on offense. There's a lack of chemistry and ball movement—they rank 24th in passes per game—and their most commonly used five-man lineup has seen under 50 minutes of total action.
Compare the Bucks to the Dallas Mavericks, who have the league's best offense, and this disjointed cohesion is hardly shocking. The Mavs' most-used lineup has logged roughly 140 minutes together, nearly three times as much as Milwaukee's.
Still, there's hope. And hope has a name: Brandon Knight.
As Kevin Zimmerman observed for SB Nation, he's improved a great deal:
"Knight is averaging a career-high 6.8 assists per game, nearly two more assists per game than his previous season high set last year. That upward trend is important for one of the most frequent slashers in the NBA. Knight is seventh in the NBA by producing 11.2 points per game off his drives, per SportVU data.
While the 22-year-old is turning the ball over too frequently (3.8 times per game), there's a chance that with a little improvement he could set a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio for the third time in three seasons. Knight's shot selection could help his 42.2 percent field goal percentage improve (he's exceptional on drives and catch-and-shoots but poor at pulling up, per SportVU). Even defensively, there's a case to be made that Knight has a lot of potential.
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Although it's difficult to praise the quarterback of a basement-lodging offense, Knight is a lifeline to respectability.
Only six players are averaging at least 17 points and six assists while shooting 35 percent or better from deep on the season: Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Knight. While the Bucks offense is pumping in more points per 100 possessions without the team's point guard on the floor, according to NBA.com, Knight's teammates are shooting 53-plus percent off his passes.
The numbers aren't always flattering, but Knight is the Bucks' lone reliable playmaker. If the team starts moving the ball more and making quicker decisions—12.8 percent of the Bucks' field-goal attempts come inside seven seconds of the shot clock—there's hope for this offense yet.
In the meantime, as their offense (hopefully) develops, the Bucks can lean on their defense as well as an uncannily ability to come up huge in big moments.
Culture Breeds Resourcefulness
Defense has helped the Bucks secure a bulk of their victories, but offense helped them streak past the New York Knicks (Nov. 18) and Brooklyn Nets (Nov. 19). Against the latter opponent, they scrapped and clawed and defended. But with the exception of Knight's botched layup, they also scored when it counted.
Wins such as those—they also scored enough to weather a late-game push by New York—are not only beacons of hope for the offense but signs of late-game gall. A team as young as the Bucks shouldn't be pulling off victories against the Knicks, Nets, Heat and Memphis Grizzlies. And yet they have, which Bleacher Report's Jim Cavan says attests to the burgeoning culture being fostered by none other than Kidd:
"Fitting, then, that the same point used to pluck these Bucks from their pedestal—It’s only 12 games—can work in the reverse. Milwaukee will meet its mean in many respects. Except, perhaps, for the metric that matters most: wins and losses.
Kidd doesn’t deserve all the credit, of course. Not when three of his players boast perennial-All-Star potential. What the Bucks give Kidd, though, is something the Nets never could: a chance to mold men, rather than simply manage them.
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There hasn't been a game in which the Bucks lacked energy. Not one. Even their losses are punctuated by effort. They've been beaten by double-figure margins twice all season and aren't folding or bending under the weight of pressure or follies and foibles.
"One of the parts of the process is understanding we deserve to win just like any other team in this league," Kidd said earlier this month, via Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel. "We've got to believe we can win. We can't just go out there and play with energy and effort."
Signs of improvement abound in Milwaukee, but it's the resilient mentality Kidd is clearly imparting that perhaps best safeguards the Bucks against disappearing.
Here to Stay? It's Totally Possible
Common refrains don't apply to these Bucks.
Their offense is a perpetual grind. The rotation is overrun with raw talent. It's still early.
They play in the East. Betting on them is a fool's game.
Yes, the Bucks do, in fact, play in the Eastern Conference—a conference with no clear-cut pecking order beyond the Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Even if the top four spots are givens—adding the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards—the definitiveness ends there. The East gives these Bucks a chance. Not one of the Nets, Knicks, Heat, Indiana Pacers, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets is guaranteed a playoff spot. Not a single one.
Crazier things have happened, too. Last season, the Bucks, molded for mediocrity as always, figured to contend for a playoff spot. They wound up keeping company with the plummeting Philadelphia 76ers instead. It took those Bucks 31 games to notch seven wins. These Bucks have rattled off seven victories in 12 tries.
So why not this year's Bucks? Why not this lively, impassioned, defensively apt bunch? They've enjoyed the league's easiest schedule to date, but they're still soldering along, above .500, one more hallmark victory away from permanently raising their ceiling.
Perhaps that victory comes Friday against the Raptors. Maybe it comes later. There's a chance it doesn't come at all.
But it's important to understand that it can come, only to be followed by many more.
"What you're noticing is they're keeping their poise," owner Marc Lasry said, per Gardner. "It's like the Cardiac Kids."
That's a fitting moniker for a squad undeniably playing with heart. Amid a season thought to be lost to transition, the Bucks are finding inspiration, flirting with playoff contention and exceeding expectations that didn't even exist.
Sleeping on a team so obviously expediting its evolution, even if by happy accident, would be the real fool's game.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com, and are accurate as of games played on Nov. 20, 2014.
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