Atlanta Hawks 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction
The Atlanta Hawks are headed toward a successful season, if they can put their offseason drama behind them.
This summer, general manager Danny Ferry and owner Bruce Levenson were both caught making racist remarks on separate occasions. Ferry is now on indefinite leave from the Hawks, and you can stick a "former" in front of Levenson's name, because he sold his share in the team.
But it's time for the Hawks to focus on basketball.
If the Hawks can put their unfortunate past behind them, they will be a competitive squad in 2014-15 for a variety of reasons: star center Al Horford is back, the team made some minor adjustments to its roster and head coach Mike Budenholzer is quickly becoming one of the NBA's better coaches.
Let's take a look at the biggest question facing Atlanta this year, the club's best lineup and the impact the three newcomers will have. After that, we'll hand out some premature team awards and predict the Hawks' record and end-of-season result in 2014-15.
What Sort of Impact Can Al Horford Make?
Horford played the Hawks' first 29 games in 2013-14, then tore his right pectoral muscle. The injury kept him out for the rest of the season.
Just last Tuesday, Horford was in action for the first time since his injury. Through his first three preseason games, the center was averaging 6.0 points and 4.3 rebounds in 16 minutes per game on 40.9 percent shooting, per ESPN.
So yes, Horford is still getting his sea legs back. But he's making steady improvement.
According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Hawks beat writer Chris Vivlamore, Budenholzer said Horford showed huge progress in Thursday's contest against the Chicago Bulls.
"I think he really made a noticeable step forward [Thursday]—his length and going and getting rebounds and extending, just looking comfortable. [The Bulls] are a very physical team and for him to get in, come through it and fell confident was [good]. Particularly on the boards he was very good and then advancing the ball on the break and doing some of the little things that Al does that are unique and we appreciate.
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By Atlanta's opener on October 29, we could be seeing vintage Horford.
And what can vintage Horford do? For starters, he's an elite scorer from several places on the floor. Take a look at his shooting splits by distance from last year.
| Distance | At rim | 3-10 ft. | 10-16 ft | 16 ft-3 pt | 3 pt |
| FG% | .754 | .470 | .491 | .496 | .364 |
The NBA averages for field-goal and three-pointer percentage were .454 and .360, respectively. Essentially, Horford is better than the average player at shooting from every place on the court.
Horford isn't half bad on defense, either. Last season, he averaged 0.79 blocks per foul, which would have ranked No. 4 in the NBA had he played enough games to qualify (per ESPN).
With Horford, the Hawks were 16-13 in 2013-14. Without him, they were 22-31. If Horford is 100 percent healthy, expect a winning percentage a lot closer to the former record than the latter.
Which Lineup Will the Hawks Use Most?
Last season, Atlanta's most-used lineup consisted of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford, according to 82games.com. That five-man unit was also the team's starting lineup before Horford went down on December 26.
Those five will continue to start games for the Hawks in 2014-15.
First of all, there is little debate that Horford, Millsap and Teague are the team's three best players. The trio combined for 53.0 points per game in 2013-14, good for No. 14 out of the NBA's 30 teams when combining the top three scorers from each squad. If one of those three isn't on the floor for the Hawks in crunch time, it's because of an injury or foul trouble.
The remaining two spots are a little bit iffier, but Korver and Carroll still get the nod.
Korver puts the "shooting" in shooting guard. He has a high basketball IQ and handles the ball well (2.9 assists and 1.4 turnovers per game last season), but his beautiful three-point stroke and effective floor-spacing is why he starts. Take a look at his YouTube highlights from a 105-103 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last November.
Carroll broke out last year, scoring a career-high 11.1 points per game as the Hawks' starting small forward. He also provides solid defense (1.5 steals) and rebounding (5.5 rebounds).
Newcomers Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore may challenge for a starting wing spot with their defense and athletic ability. But Sefolosha struggles to score (8.7 points per 36 minutes), which gives him a distinct disadvantage. Most of Bazemore's career minutes have either come in blowouts (as a Golden State Warrior) or when his team had no chance to make the playoffs (as a Los Angeles Laker). His inexperience could hurt his starting chances as well.
Teague, Korver, Carroll, Millsap and Horford will man the five starting positions admirably in 2014-15.
The Newcomers
The Hawks' 17-man training-camp roster includes four players who didn't play a minute for the team in 2013-14: Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, Adreian Payne and Jarell Eddie.
However, Eddie doesn't really count. Ryan Donoho of Soaring Down South says there is "no chance" Eddie, an undrafted rookie from Virginia Tech brought in for training camp, makes the regular-season roster.
So that leaves us with three: Bazemore, Sefolosha and Payne.
We've looked a little bit at Bazemore already. The 25-year-old shooting guard is somewhat unproven, with only 1,178 NBA minutes under his belt. But he's got a lot of potential, especially on the defensive end.
SB Nation's Mike Prada said the following about Bazemore after his fantastic stretch of games at the 2013 Las Vegas Summer League: "Bazemore’s defense is fueled by his length, instincts and ability to deceive. His long arms allow him to recover even if he’s beat on a screen, and he notices a play developing before it happens."
Bazemore is also an offensive weapon (13.1 points per game in 23 contests with the Lakers last year), and could blossom in the Hawks' sixth man in 2014-15.
While Bazemore's potential is untapped, Sefolosha is a proven commodity.
The 30-year-old swingman played the role of defensive specialist for the Oklahoma City Thunder for more than five full seasons. He accumulated 13.2 defensive win shares starting next to the explosive scoring duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
With the Hawks, Sefolosha's defense will be a welcome sight for the second unit. As alluded to before, Sefolosha's offense is the reason he won't start. Take a look at Sefolosha's offense compared to Carroll's in the below chart.
| Points | Assists | FG% | 3FG% | FT% | |
| Carroll | 12.5 | 2.1 | 47.0 | 36.2 | 77.3 |
| Sefolosha | 8.7 | 2.1 | 41.5 | 31.6 | 76.8 |
Payne, the Hawks' first-round pick out of Michigan State, is already 23 years old. Naturally, the big man is NBA-ready, with a nice jump shot (42.3 percent from three as a college senior) and explosive hops. He should carve out a rotation spot as his rookie year progresses.
Team Awards
Who will bring home unofficial team awards for the Hawks in 2014-15? Let's make some predictions.
Most Valuable Player: Al Horford
Horford is a two-time All-Star and one of the best big men in the Eastern Conference. He may have to shake off some rust to start the season, but his two-way skills will swing several close games in the Hawks' favor.
Most Improved Player: John Jenkins
Jenkins' player-efficiency rating was a measly 4.7 last year in just 158 minutes of court time. According to Peachtree Hoops' Kris Willis, Jenkins said he feels the best he has ever felt in his life.
His preseason is going well, too—Jenkins is putting up 9.6 points per game on 65.2 percent shooting from the field in five preseason games, per ESPN.
Most Improved Head Coach: Mike Budenholzer
Yes, I realize Budenholzer is the Hawks' only head coach, but he deserves a mention.
Before Budenholzer joined the Hawks in the summer of 2013, he spent 17 seasons as a San Antonio Spurs assistant to legendary head coach Gregg Popovich. I can only imagine how much Popovich-ian knowledge Coach Bud has swirling around his head.
He'll learn how to implement more of it in 2014-15.
Most Likely To Be Traded: Dennis Schroder
Schroder underwhelmed in his rookie season. His per-game stats of 3.7 points and 1.9 assists were pretty bad, but his advanced stats looked even worse: a 5.7 PER and negative-0.7 win shares.
Although he played well in the offseason for his home country of Germany, the Hawks may be best-served to trade the 21-year-old point guard. Atlanta already has Teague and Shelvin Mack to play most of those minutes anyway.
Most Likely To Fire Up The Philips Arena Crowd: Kent Bazemore
This award has much more to do with Bazemore's bench celebrations than his play. With the Warriors, he earned a reputation for being an enthusiastic cheerleader on the sidelines—just watch him go during his rookie year (courtesy of YouTube).
How Will Atlanta Fare in 2014-15?
The Eastern Conference is stronger than it was last season.
LeBron James left the four-time reigning conference champion Miami Heat, but now he joins Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving on the NBA's newest super team, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Chicago Bulls acquired Pau Gasol and now get Derrick Rose back from injury. The Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards all made the playoffs in 2013-14 and have improving young cores. The Heat, Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks shouldn't be discounted as playoff contenders, either.
The Hawks will still move up in the standings, despite the improved competition.
Horford's impact will be huge, the newcomers will play a role and Budenholzer will get better as a coach every game. If the team stays healthy, don't be surprised by a deep playoff run.
Final prediction: 47-35, No. 5 seed in Eastern Conference, lose in Eastern Conference Semifinals
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
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