NFL Crapshoot, Week 5: Houston Texans to Upset Dallas Cowboys in Battle of Texas

If looking like an against-the-grain prediction genius is your goal, national television is your friend. There's only one rule in this regard: Forget everything you know about last week.

Forget all of it. Nothing to see here. Keep moving.

The Patriots getting their muskets jammed by the Chiefs? What blowout? The Dallas Cowboys playing like it's 1995? What resurgence? The New Orleans Saints playing like it's 1995?

What paper bags?

It's a new week, and with a new week comes new motivation, new focus and, most importantly, new results. Remember how bad the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked before they beat the Steelers? Remember how good the Vikings looked before they were blown out by the Packers?

By the way, following that Vikings-Packers game, the turnover count on Thursday nights in 2014 is up to 20. That has to be some kind of record. Couldn't the FCC have come to a compromise and blacked out these games if the first half ends with more than a 20-point lead?

If not, and we really are going to suffer through an entire season of Turnover Thursday Night Football, we're going to have a Thursday Night Stat of the Week. We have to entertain ourselves somehow.

Thursday Night Stat of the Week: The past three weeks of Thursday Night Football have seen the first, second and third biggest blowouts on Thursday nights since the NFL began airing the program in 2006. Thanks Jim.

Here's what I know will happen

I know the Houston Texans (+6) will cover against the Dallas Cowboys (via Oddschecker)

The Dallas Cowboys, often dubbed America's Team, are among the most scrutinized teams in the NFL. Win, and they're "back." Lose, and they're "busts." Luckily for Team Jerry, Dallas had one of its most impressive wins of the Tony Romo era after a nationally televised drubbing of the New Orleans Saints.

The Cowboys' simple game plan of running the ball, behind a reconstructed offensive line, and overachieving on defense has them—not the Philadelphia Eagles—looking like the best team in the NFC East.

Now hosting the Houston Texans in the game after, expect a fired-up Texans team to make the same statement Dallas successfully tried to make this past Sunday night.

Dallas is just 18-13 at AT&T Stadium, and per RJ Bell of Pregame.com, the team is 33 percent ATS coming off a victory. With such a high-profile victory over a quality NFL team, a letdown in Big D should almost come naturally.

Here's what I think will happen

I think the Washington Redskins and the Seattle Seahawks will play under the wagering total (45.5)

The last time we saw the Washington Redskins, they were on the wrong side of Thursday nights. Following a five-turnover night by Kirk Cousins, expect the Redskins to come out with a more conservative, run-heavy approach on Monday night to ease their quarterback into the game.

John Froschauer/Associated Press

The Seahawks boast perhaps the best running game in the league, but Washington has been surprisingly stout against the run this season. In fact, fantasy expert Brad Evans of Yahoo.com pegged Marshawn Lynch as one of his fantasy "Lames." Evans said of Washington's resurgent run defense: 

"

Due to the stellar play of Brian Orakpo and others, rushers have compiled a mere 3.24 yards per carry and 77 rushing yards per game against it. Equally impressive, only one RB has recorded a 20-plus yard run on the 'Skins.

"

Coming off an embarrassing loss, look for a more competitive Washington team to mirror the Seahawks' usual game plan of running the ball and stopping the run. This game should not only be close, but low-scoring as well.

Here's what I'm probably wrong about

I'm probably wrong, but the St. Louis Rams will beat the Philadelphia Eagles outright

Jeff Fisher is one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, Fisher is 60 percent ATS in his head coaching career.

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, giving the Rams' loaded defensive line a chance to control the game and force struggling quarterback Nick Foles into mistakes. The Eagles have gotten away with slow starts in the first half all season, but this sloppy play is slowly but surely starting to catch up with them.

The Eagles have only covered seven of their last 30 home games (via Covers.com) and will now host a desperate Rams team that had two weeks to prepare. Philadelphia may be looking ahead to a divisional date with the surging Giants next week, which could be more cause for a potential upset.

Week 4 NFL Crapshoot Record: 2-1

Overall 2014 NFL Crapshoot Record: 5-4

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.

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