25 NFL Truths at Season Midpoint
While the beginning of the NFL season is generally wrought with questions, by the midway point we start to find the answers to many of them.
We’ve generally picked a side on players we were on the fence about, and we have a pretty good idea of which teams qualify as pretenders or contenders. We’ve seen certain young players take monumental leaps while certain grizzled veterans take huge steps back.
It’s been a strange season to say the least.
While the first half of the season is by no means a sure blueprint for how the rest of the season will unfold, many lessons can be attained through careful examination.
Here are the 25 most important things we’ve learned through the midpoint of the season.
1. Dez Bryant Is Good; Calvin Johnson Is Better
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Dez Bryant is one of the most talented wide receivers gracing a football field at the moment, one of the few that can reasonably make a case for being second best in the league. Unfortunately for him and everyone else, that’s the ceiling.
Calvin Johnson really is that good.
We didn’t need his 329-yard performance this past Sunday to come to this conclusion, but boy did it reaffirm it. There is just no possible situation in which you can claim that Johnson is reasonably covered. There are three Cincinnati Bengals defenders that can attest to that.
Bryant made some waves last week with some strong quotes regarding himself and Johnson, via Tim McMahon of ESPN.com:
"I believe I can do whatever he can do. I think it's just a pride thing. When it comes to football, just being on the field, it's a mindset and having a mentality. I honestly believe when I'm there, I'll be feeling like there's nothing I can't do. Whatever the coaches ask me to do, I'm going to do it.
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We all saw on Sunday that he’s clearly mistaken. Bryant is one of the best in the league right now. Megatron is one of the best of all time. Confidence is great and is an essential part of playing football. It’s become evidently clear, though, that this confidence was misguided.
2. Chip Kelly's System Is Broken
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Chip Kelly was supposed to revolutionize the game of football. He was supposed to implement his high-powered Oregon Ducks offense and take the NFL by storm.
Aside from one half of play in their first game against the defensive sieves known as the Washington Redskins, the Philadelphia Eagles have accomplished none of that.
Chip Kelly’s system is broken.
We can attribute some of this to the obvious quarterbacking debacle taking place in Philadelphia right now. Michael Vick has been hurt—ditto for Nick Foles—and Matt Barkley just isn’t ready. Still, the offense was supposed to hide their deficiencies.
To this point, they’ve been at the forefront.
Despite LeSean McCoy leading the league in rushing, he’s been an after thought the last few games. If the Eagles want to salvage any part of their season, they’re going to have to once again feature him in the offense.
It’s too early to tell if Kelly can make this work in the future. For now, though, it’s pretty clear that the Eagles are going nowhere fast.
3. The Buffalo Bills Are Headed in the Right Direction
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Teams that start the season at 3-5 generally don’t look back at the first half of their season with many positives. For the Buffalo Bills, however, this couldn’t be farther from the truth.
Despite facing some pretty stiff competition to start the year, the Bills have been one of the peskiest teams in football, somehow finding a way to keep themselves in each and every game.
Even with last season’s first-round pick EJ Manuel being limited to just five games this season, head coach Doug Marrone has his team headed in the right direction. With an offensive core of the future centered around Manuel, C.J. Spiller, Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods, the Bills should remain competitive for a long time.
While Spiller has disappointed this season, the combination of Fred Jackson and him has proven to be just enough. They’ve shown the Bills where their identity lies.
They won’t make the playoffs this season, and maybe not even the next one, but they will continue to scare each team that see’s them on the schedule. If they continue to improve through the draft and from within, they could easily become the best team in New York very shortly.
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4. Frank Gore Is a Hall-of-Fame Back
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Frank Gore keeps getting the ball, and he just keeps making things happen with it. Defenses can’t stop him, age can’t stop him and despite their efforts earlier in the season, the San Francisco 49ers game plan can’t stop him either.
He just keeps chugging along.
The dirty 30 was supposed to knock him off his pedestal. We saw Steven Jackson succumb to Father Time this year and thought Gore was next. Instead Gore has proceeded to amass 618 yards and seven touchdowns this season, first and third in the league respectively.
With 9,457 yards and 58 touchdowns in his prestigious career, he’s currently not a lock for the hall of fame. If he continues at his current pace, however, he will be. For a man that’s overcome so many injuries throughout his career, it’s been one of the most inspiring we’ve ever seen.
He is the reason that the 49ers are one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the league. For Gore, this season has been just another day at the office.
5. The San Francisco 49ers Must Continue to Run the Ball
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If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Teams have abided by that principle since the inception of the NFL. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they didn’t get that memo at the beginning of the season. The two blemishes on their record are the result.
We’ve already proclaimed the greatness of Frank Gore, and it appears that the 49ers have finally realized that he is the key to their offense. As great as Colin Kaepernick is and will be, what the 49ers need right now is a heavy dose of the running game.
With the ferocious defense they possess, controlling the clock through the running game and keeping their defense fresh is the smartest strategy they can take. It got them to the Super Bowl last season, and it very well might get them there again this season.
As enticing as taking full advantage of the many talents of Kaepernick is, pounding the rock is simply the better offense. It is what opens up Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin in the passing game and allows the offense to develop more layers.
The 49ers appear to be flying under the radar because of their two early losses, but if they continue to do what they do best, they’ll find their way right back to where they were last season.
6. Andrew Luck Is the Best Quarterback of the 2012 Draft Class
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This one shouldn’t even be debatable. Seattle Seahawks fans do exist, however, so there will always be a “debate.”
With all due respect to Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck is just on a whole different level. All of that chatter about him being the best prospect coming out of college since John Elway? It’s all been warranted so far.
Luck doesn’t have the most talented team, and with Reggie Wayne now lost for the season, things aren’t going to get much easier. But, as we saw in his victories over the 49ers, Seahawks and Denver Broncos, Luck doesn’t need much help. He just finds ways to win.
Luck’s numbers won’t set the world on fire, but he has managed to make drastic improvements to his game in his second season. The pesky interception problem that plagued him last year seem to have been remedied as he’s only tossed three this season to date.
He’s taking better care of the ball, and the results have been wins over the best the NFL has to offer. The more time that passes by, the better Luck is going to get. He just finds ways to get better. Wilson currently sports a better record, but he also has twice the talent surrounding him.
Luck was the right choice going into the 2012 draft, and he’ll continue to prove that throughout the rest of his career.
7. And Luck Wil Be the Best Quarterback in the NFL in a Few Short Years
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We’ve already established that Luck was the best quarterback in the 2012 draft, but his ceiling is much higher than just that. The best quarterback in the NFL is where he’ll eventually end up.
It’s no secret that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are getting up there in age, and Drew Brees is no spring chicken either. Their time at the top won’t continue forever. That leaves just Aaron Rodgers in the elite quarterback class.
A changing of the guard will eventually have to take place, and Luck is more than fit to take his spot at the top. The Colts must find a way to surround him with better talent, sure, but as they proved this offseason and with their acquisition of Trent Richardson (more on him later), they’re committed to providing Luck with everything he needs.
With a little more help and with Luck continuing to improve at his current pace, seeing Luck take his place at the top becomes easier and easier. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, but the talent Luck possesses is undeniable. There’s nowhere to go but up.
8. Philip Rivers Is Back
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It’s officially safe to say that Philip Rivers was written off too early. Rivers has been sensational this year, posting the second-highest quarterback rating in the NFL at 111.1.
While Antonio Gates has been a familiar catalyst in the passing game, the rest of the production has come from a myriad of unheralded players. Whether it be Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal or Danny Woodhead, Rivers has made them all look like stars at some point this season.
He’s giving them the Tom Brady treatment.
If Rivers continues at his current pace, he’ll end the season with 4,873 passing yards and 34 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions. Those are some serious numbers.
He’s brought the San Diego Chargers back to relevance and makes them a dangerous opponent anytime they take the field.
9. The AFC West Will Send 3 Teams to the Playoffs
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We know the Broncos and the Kansas Chiefs will get into the playoffs. The Chargers, however, could wind up snagging that final playoff spot.
The competition for that coveted sixth seed isn’t especially tough this year. With the Baltimore Ravens on a downward spiral and the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins most likely a year or two away from seriously contending, the door is wide open for Philip Rivers to make his return to the postseason.
At the midpoint of the season, the Chargers look to clearly be the sixth-best team in a watered-down AFC. With four games against division rivals Denver and Kansas City and another tough one against Cincinnati, it won’t be an easy path. If they can manage to go 2-3 in those games, they might just print a ticket in.
We don’t know if Rivers will continue to play the way that he is, but if he does, they should make it in. There just doesn’t seem to be anyone else with the talent to truly make a run at the final playoff spot.
10. The Kansas City Chiefs Are Not the Best Team in Football
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The Kansas City Chiefs deserve a lot of credit for their amazing turnaround this season. An 8-0 record is nothing to sneeze at, after all. It also, however, doesn’t automatically make them the best team in the NFL.
Credit must be given when it’s due, but going overboard must also be avoided. The Chiefs’ schedule has been laughable thus far, and while they have done what they are supposed to do, the fact remains that not much has been asked of them yet.
Contrary to what ESPN might want to pound down your throat, Alex Smith is not an elite quarterback. He’s won a lot of games the past few years; we get it. But, he’s also had two of the best defenses and running games during that same time.
He’s a game manager, a fantastic one at that, but when push comes to shove, he’s going to have to put the team on his back. He wasn’t able to do that in the 2011 NFC Championship game against the New York Giants, and the 49ers weren’t convinced he could ever be that guy.
The Chiefs will soon find out what the 49ers already know. Smith will get them close, but he’s just not good enough to compete against the Peyton Mannings and Aaron Rodgers of the world. His ceiling just isn’t high enough, and this is what keeps the Chiefs from truly being the contenders they think they are.
11. But Neither Are the Denver Broncos
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Not so fast, though, Broncos fans. Just because the Chiefs aren’t the best team doesn’t mean you are either. The Broncos are the best offense in the NFL, that much is a bona fide truth. Their defense, however, keeps them from being the best team.
It’s been exploited numerous times this season. They had just enough offensive firepower to survive a scare against the Dallas Cowboys. Against a more complete team in the Colts, however, their deficiencies finally caught up to them.
Von Miller is back, so that should help. But they’re going to need a lot more than just him to fix their severely broken unit. They can’t stop the pass or run and have relied on their offense as their best defense for far too long.
Peyton Manning has appeared to be a bit more mortal in his last few games, and if they run into a team in the playoffs that can limit him just enough, their defense won’t be able to win them the game. They’re clearly the sexy pick right now because of that prolific offense, but the sexy team has rarely gone on to win the Super Bowl.
Manning needs help, but I’m just not sure the defense can give it to him.
12. The Tom Brady Championship Window Is Closing
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To doubt the greatest living American is blasphemous, but as Tom Brady will soon find out, all good things must eventually come to an end.
Brady is held in the highest of esteem, but the fact remains that he hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2004 and has actually lost two since then. Given the right team, Brady can no doubt make it back to the top. This team isn’t the right one, though.
Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead are gone, Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola have been plagued by injury and Stevan Ridley has been far from his 2012 form. Brady has tried valiantly to make it work, but even though they’ve continued to win, the New England Patriots aren’t striking fear into the hearts of anyone right now.
For a Brady-led team, that just doesn’t seem right.
The Patriots won’t have Brady forever, and while they’ll stay competitive as long as he’s around, Brady on his own is only enough to make them the fifth-best team in the AFC (behind the Colts, Broncos, Chiefs and Bengals).
Brady is 36, meaning he doesn’t have many more years left at the top. His championship window is closing fast, and if the Patriots don’t do more to surround him with better talent, they’ll waste the tail end of one of the NFL’s greatest careers.
13. Brandon Meriweather Is an Idiot, but He's Right
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The NFL is our version of modern day gladiators, athletes at the peak of their physical abilities paid to inflict unbearable amounts of punishments upon each other.
And we absolutely love it.
Unfortunately for the players involved, fame and fortune comes with a price and a steep one at that. Each and every player puts their life at risk whenever they decide to take the field.
The NFL has decided to do its part to try and keep the players as safe as possible. The result has been a diluted product and one that the players themselves can’t quite seem to master.
Brandon Meriweather made waves recently with comments he made about his new style of play (from Zac Boyer of the Washington Times):
"To be honest, man, you've just got to go low now, man. You've got to end people's careers, you know? You've got to tear people's ACLs and mess up people's knees now. You can't hit them high no more. You've just got to go low.
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Meriweather might not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but what he says is 100 percent correct. The way the rules are currently constructed, hits to the knees have risen at an alarming rate. It’s no surprise we’ve seen stars such as Reggie Wayne and Sam Bradford lose the entire season because of it.
The NFL’s quest to preserve the long-term health of its players is a noble one. Unfortunately for the players, their short-term career expectancies drop considerably if they have no ACL’s with which to play. Expect to see a lot more season-ending injuries before the year is over.
14. Greg Schiano Is Not the Right Coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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This one is as blatantly obvious as anything you’ll find on this list. Despite Dashon Goldson claiming that Greg Schiano has not yet lost the locker room, the fact remains that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have yet to win a game this season.
With a roster chalk-full of talent like Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin and Gerald McCoy, that is just unacceptable. The talent is there for this team to at least be competitive. Unfortunately for the players, the coach isn’t.
It’s time for a change of scenery for Schiano. With the Buccaneers’ season all but over, it’s time to look to next season. Odds are Schiano won’t be there.
15. The NFC East Is a Joke
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As loaded as the AFC West is, the opposite can be said of the NFC East. Quite simply, it’s an abysmal division.
The chances of the NFC East sending a below .500 team to the playoffs is certainly on the table, especially when considering that the New York Giants are inconceivably in the mix following a disastrous 0-6 start.
The Dallas Cowboys appear to be the only team with the talent to truly give anyone a serious scare, but their track record suggests that they shouldn’t be much of a problem. Still, they’re clearly the best team in the division and should have no trouble pulling away from the pack.
Regardless of whom the division ends up sending, one thing is clear; they won’t last long in the playoffs. With the NFC wildcards shaping up to be some combination of the Seahawks, 49ers, Green Bay Packers or Lions, short work will be made of whomever represents them.
16. Trent Richardson Is a Bust
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You have to give the Colts some credit for at least trying to give Luck some nice pieces to work with. Unfortunately for them, Trent Richardson isn’t who we thought he was.
His career 3.4 yards per game average has somehow gotten worse this season, dropping to 3.1. He’s managed only 333 yards and has found the end zone only twice. That’s not the type of production you would expect from the man drafted immediately after Luck and Griffin.
He’s a powerful back that seems afraid to showcase it. Instead of charging through holes and defenders, he would rather cut it outside. While he does possess admirable speed, his cutting ability and evasiveness appear to be nonexistent.
All signs are pointing to Richardson being a bust. He’s just not very good. Unless he changes his running style like this next guy, he will continue to be a non-factor out of the backfield.
17. Reggie Bush Was Not
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Reggie Bush garnered more hype out of the running back position than any other in recent memory. He was quick, he was powerful and he was an elite pass catcher out of the backfield.
After a few seasons in New Orleans, however, it appeared that the skills that had made him a sensation in college didn’t translate to the NFL.
A change of scenery shattered that perception.
Bush revitalized his career with Miami, and he’s only gotten better since then. He’s been a capable runner this season, amassing 518 yards on 4.4 yards per carry, and he’s been nearly as good as a receiving option with 335 yards. When coupled with his four touchdowns, it’s clear how valuable he really is.
He is the thunder to Calvin Johnson’s lightning, the perfect complimentary piece to the NFL’s premier offensive weapon. The Lions have carved out the perfect role for him, and he has performed it admirably. The second overall pick of the 2006 NFL draft has finally started playing like it.
18. The Chicago Bears Will Not Survive the Loss of Jay Cutler
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Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears just can’t seem to ever catch a break. Cutler was in the midst of a fine season, one that had the Bears contending for the playoffs. The NFC is absolutely loaded this season, so it was going to take the very best out of Cutler if the Bears were to make the playoffs.
With Cutler now out for the next few weeks, the Bears can kiss their playoff aspirations goodbye. With upcoming games against Green Bay and Detroit, the Bears just don’t have enough without Cutler. Their 4-3 record could soon change to 4-5, and in the always-tight NFC North, that’s just too big of a hole to overcome, even when Cutler returns.
Cutler gave them a chance to compete against any opponent. Without him, they’re about as competitive as an NFC East team. He’ll return, sure, but he just won’t return in time to salvage the season.
19. The Seattle Seahawks Need Home-Field Advantage to Survive the Playoffs
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There might not be a bigger Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team in the NFL than the Seattle Seahawks. At home, they might just be unbeatable, regardless of the opponent. On the road, however, it’s a completely different story.
The loss in Indianapolis wasn’t very worrisome; Luck and the Colts are Super Bowl contenders themselves. The abomination of a game that the Seahawks played against St. Louis on Monday night, however, well that one was a cause for concern.
A team that supposedly boasts the best defense in the NFL should never allow a Rams team minus Sam Bradford to utterly dominate them the way they did. Seattle got the win, sure, but for anyone watching the game, it was clear who fielded the better team that night.
The fact that the Seahawks ground out a win on a night when they weren’t at their best is a positive, but a team starting Kellen Clemens at quarterback should never have been that difficult to deal with. If they put on a performance like that against one of the true contenders in the playoffs, they might not get a win at all.
More than any other team in the NFC, the Seahawks unequivocally need home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their crowd brings out the best in them, and without them, they’re extremely mortal.
20. The Jacksonville Jaguars Will Win a Game
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Contrary to popular belief, the Jacksonville Jaguars are not the worst team in the history of football. They’re pretty bad, though.
Still, in order for a team to go an entire season without winning a game, they have to be historically bad. And that, the Jaguars are not. While the loss of Justin Blackmon for the season will hurt them considerably, Chad Henne will still chuck the ball around enough to earn a victory eventually.
Maurice Jones-Drew also appears to be picking up some steam, so the offense isn’t the mess it was at the beginning of the season.
With just one team remaining on the schedule that boasts a record above .500, the Jaguars will have plenty of opportunities to steal a win or two. While they would probably be better off just tanking the season away and grabbing the coveted No. 1 overall pick, head coach Gus Bradley isn’t wired that way.
He’s going to have his guys competing hard each and every week, and that will eventually yield a win for the boys in Jacksonville.
21. The Baltimore Ravens Will Regret Paying Joe Flacco
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You can’t blame the Baltimore Ravens for jumping the gun and throwing Joe Flacco a lavish six-year, $120.6 million contract following his splendid run through the playoffs last season.
Hindsight always finds a way to rear its ugly head, though, and right now, it’s telling us that Flacco is not worth that kind of money. Tying that much money into one player is fine if that player is an Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. Those guys can make anyone a star.
Flacco, however, is not that kind of player. He can lead a good group of players to greatness, but he can’t turn the average Joe into a household name. Average Joes are what he’ll be stuck with, though, because of the huge hit to the cap his contract will inflict.
The Ravens have proven to be an inconsistent bunch this season, and it’s a trait that is directly in line with their quarterback. He’s completing under 60 percent of his passes and has thrown just eight touchdowns to his eight interceptions.
He’s not the elite quarterback the Ravens are paying him to be.
Flacco is a slightly above-average quarterback with an average team. Unless the Ravens restructure his contract, mediocrity will be the calling card for the foreseeable future.
22. The NFC Is Loaded at the Top
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Traversing the NFC playoffs is going to be an absolute gauntlet this season. Aside from whomever the NFC East sends to the dance, each and every team can be considered a serious contender.
The Packers, Saints and Lions feature some of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, and the Seahawks and 49ers combine dominant defenses with unparalleled running games. Any combination of those teams would be considered a dream Super Bowl contest.
Trying to pick a favorite out of those teams is about as impossible a decision as you’ll ever find. It’s possible that this is the most loaded the conference has ever been.
Betting against Brees or Rodgers is never smart, but can you really argue against the 49ers or Seahawks? We won’t even bother picking a favorite because, quite frankly, there isn’t one. Any of these teams can beat anyone at any given time.
It’s going to be amazing football. There’s no need to ponder this any longer. When the time finally comes, just sit back and enjoy the ride.
23. Terrelle Pryor Is a Lot Better Than We All Thought
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Terrelle Pryor might be the most unpolished quarterback in the NFL, but he also might be the most exciting. The things this guy does with his legs are astounding.
Obviously, we prefer our quarterbacks to be elite passers, but Pryor more than makes up for his passing deficiencies with his ability to extend plays and evade would-be tacklers.
He’s clearly a work in progress, but the prospect of what he could one day become is scary. Accuracy hasn’t actually been the problem for him this season, as he’s converting on 63 percent of his throws. It’s been the unfortunate decision-making that has doomed him far too often.
Still, nobody expected him to stick around on an NFL team this long, let alone become the unquestioned starter. He’s proving his critics wrong each time he takes the field. If he can improve on his decision-making, he could become one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL.
24. The Matt Schaub Era in Houston Is over
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The demise of Matt Schaub is one of the wackiest storylines of this NFL season. It’s not that Schaub was ever anything special, but he was never a bad quarterback.
This season, he’s been beyond bad.
It’s not just his dubious record of four consecutive games with the opposing defense returning an interception for a touchdown. He just doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket anymore. The perplexing part is that he has such a great running back duo in Arian Foster and Ben Tate to take away some of the pressure.
Instead of relying on Houston's horses, however, Schaub was allowed to continue to falter. A lot of the blame should fall on head coach Gary Kubiak for allowing this to happen.
The Texans have a talented roster, and they can easily be competitive again should the right quarterback find his way on the team. That quarterback is not Schaub, though. With news that Case Keenum will get the start over a healthy Schaub this week, via Tania Ganguli of ESPN.com, the writing is on the wall.
The Matt Schaub era is officially over.
25. Rex Ryan Is a Better Coach Than We Give Him Credit for
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Who on earth would have thought that the New York Jets would be sporting a 4-4 record halfway through the season? Not even the most loyal Jets fan could say they expected this.
Geno Smith is still a work in progress, but it’s become clear that he has the chops to become a good NFL quarterback. Kudos to Rex Ryan for sticking by him through the rough patches.
What Ryan has done with his J.V. roster has not garnished enough praise. He has his defense competing at a high level each and every game, and the results have been pleasantly surprising. The Jets are by no means a serious contender in the AFC, but they have a bright future.
Regardless of how the season plays out, Ryan deserves the chance to continue coaching this team. If the season ended now, he would be on the short list of candidates for coach of the year. He’s done more than anyone with the amount of talent on his team.
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