MLB Trade Scenarios: Every Team's Odds of Dealing for Josh Hamilton

Texas Rangers fans readily remember the Mark Teixeira trade.  Toward the end of Tex's stay in Arlington, it became clear that he no longer wanted to toil in relative obscurity, playing for a perennial stinker like the Texas Rangers were at that time.

It was time for Teixeira to find a new home.

It's hard to believe that at the time of the trade, the majority of fans weren't pleased.  Teixeira was, and still is, one of the best first basemen in the game, and the Rangers were about to trade him for some no-name prospects and a catcher that could win Scrabble every time by using his name. It was upsetting.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus and Beau Jones for Tex and Ron Mahay.  What a rip-off.  

Then Matt Harrison became a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter, while Feliz became a lights-out closer—and now has a chance in the rotation. Elvis Andrus showed the Rangers that maybe Michael Young really wasn't so great at shortstop.

That's a pretty sweet haul for a slugging first baseman that would have priced his way out of Arlington following 2008 anyway.

Josh Hamilton's recent transgressions might make some folks ponder what Hambone could net in trade value.  

Granted, he's in a different situation than Tex was in 2007.  For starters, he's a free agent after this season.  Teixeira was able to procure added value due to his having a full season-and-a-half left on his contract.

Hamilton is older and much more injury-prone than Tex was (or is).  Although Teixeira plays excellent defense at first, Hami plays above-average defense at a premium position.  Hamilton has an MVP and a batting title, both of which have eluded Tex.

Then again, Tex isn't an addict that goes crazy after a drink or 12.  So, with Josh Hamilton as a potential trade piece, there are certainly some areas that throw up red flags, to say the least.

Regardless, it doesn't matter which team; every single one of them could benefit by what Hamilton brings to the table offensively and defensively.

So, what are the odds of each MLB team dealing for Josh Hamilton?  Chances are, not good. But that's no fun. Let's speculate which teams have the best odds at harnessing Hambone.  

Odds in Dealing for Josh Hamilton: Not Good (AL Teams)

Despite all of the problems that come with Josh Hamilton—age, injury and addiction—there are plenty of perks thanks to his unbelievable athleticism and ridiculous baseball tools.  For the Texas Rangers to "wash their hands" of Hamilton—one of the most popular Rangers of all time—they're going to require a sizable return.  

In all likelihood, it would take not just prospects, but a bat that is already productive or major-league ready.  A potential suitor would also have to be close to contention in its respective division for the deal to become feasible.  What would be the point in the Astros dealing for Hamilton?   

You can rule out any team in the AL West, plus the Houston Astros (who will be in the AL West starting in 2013).  There is no way the Rangers would risk having their best player beat them in their own division.   

It's also reasonable to rule out teams that are strapped for cash.  Hamilton will command a large contract once he becomes a free agent.  Sure, with his addiction issues and advancing age it might not be for more than three or four years in length, but it will cost a cool $20 million per year or even more if he has another 2010-like season.

Plus, some teams are already set, such as the Phillies, or don't have any prospects to speak of (White Sox).

Here are the American League teams that are highly unlikely to deal for Josh Hamilton for the aforementioned reasons:

Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Oakland Athletics: It seems unlikely the Rangers would deal Hami to a divisional foe.

Baltimore Orioles: Sure, they love acquiring players from the Texas Rangers, but what exactly could they offer the Rangers in return for Hambone?

Chicago White Sox: Josh Hamilton for Adam Dunn, straight up.  Yeah, right.  It would be nice to reacquire John Danks, but as of now, the Rangers have plenty of pitching depth. The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in big league baseball. They've got little to give in a potential trade.

Cleveland Indians: With Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore, the Tribe have plenty of injury concerns in the outfield.  Why add another one?

Odds in Dealing for Josh Hamilton: Not Good (NL Teams)

Any team that would trade for Josh Hamilton should at least be open to re-signing the slugger to an additional contract—assuming he performs well.  

Once again, if a team isn't close to contention and doesn't have a sizable payroll to get more than a half-season out of Hamilton, it should pass.  

In the National League, this rules out:

Houston Astros: They really have nothing to trade for Hamilton. It's a bad farm system and a bad big league club. Plus, the 'Stros will be in the AL West in 2013, so it's unlikely the Rangers would deal with them anyways.

New York Mets: Sure, they might be interested, but it would be of little help to the Mets to acquire Hamilton or move the prospects that his arrival would cost.  The Mets are rebuilding, and it's best they stick to that course.

Washington Nationals: With Bryce Harper closing in and Jayson Werth with much to prove, Hamilton would be a bad fit.  Unless, of course, it's Hamilton for Strasburg straight up. Yeah, right.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The future is bright for the Dodgers, as they have an excellent core, will have a new owner and already have a solid outfield.  

San Diego Padres: The Padres have an excellent farm system and have little need to deplete that core to acquire an injury-prone slugger that is in the latter stage of his prime.

Here are three additional NL teams that are already very well set both in the outfield and their lineup:

Philadelphia Phillies: With John Mayberry Jr. (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Hunter Pence (RF), the Phils are rock solid in the outfield.  No need to bother fixing this lineup, as it is far from broken (even without Howard for the time being).

Cincinnati Reds: Hamilton for Joey Votto. The Rangers would be fools not to jump on that scenario. The problem is, the Reds aren't your dumb little brother, and this is not an Xbox game.  

Arizona Diamondbacks: Much like the Reds and Phillies, the D-backs are simply too good to need another piece, no matter how terrific he is.

Chicago Cubs: It's no secret that the Rangers have been interested in right-hander Matt Garza.  A Hamilton for Garza trade would make some sense in terms of need, but it seems unlikely that a pickup of Hamilton would be enough to put the Cubs in playoff position.  Plus, a team run by Theo Epstein probably wouldn't want Hami around for the long haul. 

Odds in Dealing for Josh Hamilton: Good (AL Teams)

In the unlikely event that the Texas Rangers bid adieu to their star center fielder/left fielder, these AL teams have what Texas might be looking for and/or would likely benefit from his acquisition.

Toronto Blue Jays: Left field is a weak area for this imposing lineup.  Eric Thames or Travis Snider will battle it out for the starting spot.  Hamilton in left would make the Jays OF one of the best in the AL, with slugger Jose Bautista in right and up-and-comer Colby Rasmus patrolling CF. The Jays have a deep farm system with plenty of options that suit the Rangers.

Boston Red Sox: Whoa, boy. Josh Hamilton with that short Fenway Park right field porch. He could hit 50 home runs there.  Hamilton in left field with Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Ryan Sweeney in right (at least until Crawford returns from injury) is alarmingly awesome.  Hamilton would make this one of the best (and brittle) lineups in the last decade.  Plenty of prospects to choose from in the deep farm system that Boston possesses. 

New York Yankees: God willing, this won't ever happen.  I really don't want to set my Josh Hamilton jersey on fire (and probably wouldn't).  Obviously, this would make an already extremely potent offense even better (and older).  For my money, a package of Dante Bichette Jr., Brett Gardner and maybe a low-level arm gets this deal done.

Tampa Bay Rays: Matt Moore for Josh Hamilton?  That's not very likely to happen.  Hamilton would be a nice addition to that lineup, to say the least.  This would create a power shift in the AL East, one that the Red Sox and Yankees might not allow to happen. The Rays have plenty of options—like James Shields—that they could ship to Arlington in exchange for the slugger. 

Detroit Tigers: Good Lord, can you imagine the Detroit Tigers lineup with Hamilton in the middle of it? I'd rather not, thank you.  By signing Prince Fielder, the Tigers have clearly proven they will do what it takes to win now. So there's that.

Kansas City Royals: Hamilton would be reunited with Jeff Francoeur (who played with the Rangers during their stretch drive and playoff chase of 2010) in the outfield.  The Royals might be able to secure a wild-card berth in the AL Central with Hami on their squad.  With one of the strongest farm systems of the last four or five years, the Royals could provide the Rangers with a myriad of nice upper-tier prospects.

Minnesota Twins—A Ben Revere trade—plus a few prospects—for Josh Hamilton would be a move that's mutually beneficial.

Odds in Dealing for Josh Hamilton: Good (NL Teams)

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers need some pop from the left side.  A healthy Hamilton puts up Prince Fielder numbers, and he does it while playing a premium position.  He could patrol left when Ryan Braun is likely suspended or could spell Nyjer Morgan on occasion in center. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: The addition of Hamilton might be enough for the Pirates to reach .500. They have some unbelievable arms in the minors that any team, including the Rangers, would be willing to trade for.  

San Francisco Giants: The Giants need a bat badly. They could use an outfielder and have some prospects they could let loose to reel in Hamilton.  Much like if Hamilton joined a team in the AL East, his acquisition would certainly shake things up in the NL West.  

Colorado Rockies: Josh Hamilton might hit 50 home runs in Colorado. Cargo, Cuddyer, Hamilton—SICK. The only question is if the Rockies have enough to package in a trade to make the Rangers take a flyer on the possibility.

St. Louis Cardinals: Pretty sure Josh Hamilton would beat out John Jay in center field.  With Hami in the Cards' lineup, they'd win the NL Central by 10 games.  I'm sure the Rangers would trade Hamilton right now for a retroactive David Freese swing-and-miss in Game 6 against Neftali Feliz—I know I would. It still gives me nightmares. Texan Shelby Miller would be a candidate to make this trade happen.  

Miami Marlins: Mike Stanton for Josh Hamilton, straight up. Or maybe Hamilton for that horrific thing that will haunt center field in the Marlins' otherwise spiffy new stadium.  Seriously though, a package of LF/1B Logan Morrison and a prospect or two could be enough for the Rangers to send Hamilton's talents (and demons) to South Beach.  

Atlanta Braves: You know the Rangers would ask for Julio Teheran.  You've got to.  The Braves have an excellent minor league system and seem to produce power arms at will.  The Braves could use a steady outfield bat.  Hamilton could slide into left, or possibly right if Jason Heyward continues to struggle.    

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