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What Are the Chances Your MLB Team's Top Prospect Actually Delivers on the Hype?

Joel ReuterMay 7, 2026

MLB teams and fanbases alike often cling tightly to No. 1 prospect talent, but how often do those guys actually develop into impact players at the next level?

It's a simple question, but one that took a deep dive back through top prospect history to answer. We settled on a 20-year sample size that stretched from 2004 through 2023, which gave enough of a buffer for young players who are still developing, and also kept things recent enough to line up with more modern scouting.

Using the preseason organizational top prospect lists from Baseball America, each team's No. 1 prospect was identified and sorted into one of three simple buckets: Great, Good and Not So Good.

That provided an easily digestible snapshot of each team's success rate without diving too deep into advanced metrics.

Arizona Diamondbacks

1 of 30
MLB: AUG 28 Diamondbacks at Brewers
Corbin Carroll

Great

OF Corbin Carroll (2021-23)
OF Carlos González (2008)
OF Justin Upton (2007)

Good

OF Daulton Varsho (2020)
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2019)
SP Tyler Skaggs (2013)
SP Trevor Bauer (2012)
SS Stephen Drew (2006)
OF Carlos Quentin (2005)

Not So Good

SP Jon Duplantier (2018)
RP Anthony Banda (2017)
SP Braden Shipley (2016)
RP Archie Bradley (2014-15)
SP Jarrod Parker (2009-11)
OF Scott Hairston (2004)

Quick Take: The D-backs found a true face of the franchise in Corbin Carroll, and have actually had great success with top-tier outfield talent. However, their hit rate on elite-level pitching talent has left something to be desired, and they have not had a true homegrown ace since Brandon Webb.

Athletics

2 of 30
Los Angeles Angels v Oakland Athletics
Carlos González

Great

OF Carlos González (2008)

Good

OF Tyler Soderstrom (2021-23)
SP Jesús Luzardo (2019-20)
SS Addison Russell (2013-14)
1B Chris Carter (2010)
SP Brett Anderson (2009)
OF Nick Swisher (2005)

Not So Good

RP A.J. Puk (2018)
SS Franklin Barreto (2016-17)
SS Daniel Robertson (2015)
SP Jarrod Parker (2012)
2B Grant Green (2011)
OF Travis Buck (2007)
1B Daric Barton (2006)
SS Bobby Crosby (2004)

Quick Take: The Athletics have traded away many of their top prospects before they turned into impact contributors, but they wisely held onto Tyler Soderstrom. He is now a foundational piece after signing an eight-year, $86 million extension in December.

Atlanta Braves

3 of 30
Detroit Tigers v Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Great

3B Austin Riley (2019)
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. (2018)
SS Dansby Swanson (2016-17)
OF Jason Heyward (2010)

Good

OF Michael Harris II (2022)
SP Julio Teheran (2011-13)
SP Tommy Hanson (2009)
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2007)
OF Jeff Francoeur (2005)

Not So Good

SP AJ Smith-Shawver (2023)
OF Cristian Pache (2020-21)
IF/OF José Peraza (2015)
RP Lucas Sims (2014)
OF Jordan Schafer (2008)
3B Andy Marte (2004, 2006)

Quick Take: Aside from Cristian Pache, the Braves have done a terrific job converting top-tier prospects into impact big leaguers. For an organization that was pitching-first through their run of success in the 90s, it's surprising to see Julio Teheran is the most recent pitcher on this list.

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Baltimore Orioles

4 of 30
Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles
Manny Machado

Great

SS Gunnar Henderson (2023)
C Adley Rutschman (2020-22)
3B Manny Machado (2011)
OF Nick Markakis (2005-06)

Good

OF Austin Hays (2018)
SP Dylan Bundy (2012-16)
C Matt Wieters (2008-09)

Not So Good

OF Yusniel Díaz (2019)
C Chance Sisco (2017)
SP Brian Matusz (2010)
3B Billy Rowell (2007)
SP Adam Loewen (2004)

Quick Take: Even with uber-hyped prospects Dylan Bundy and Matt Wieters failing to develop into the franchise cornerstones they were expected to be, the Orioles have a strong track record. That said, the list of future stars that were selected after Adam Loewen and Billy Rowell in their respective draft classes is hard to ignore.

Boston Red Sox

5 of 30
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Devil Rays - September 21, 2005
Hanley Ramírez

Great

SS Xander Bogaerts (2013-14)
SS Hanley Ramírez (2004-05)

Good

OF Andrew Benintendi (2017)
3B Yoán Moncada (2016)
SP Clay Buchholz (2008)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (2007)

Not So Good

IF Marcelo Mayer (2022-23)
1B Triston Casas (2020-21)
1B Bobby Dalbec (2019)
SP Jay Groome (2018)
C Blake Swihart (2015)
3B Will Middlebrooks (2012)
SP Casey Kelly (2011)
OF Ryan Westmoreland (2010)
OF Lars Anderson (2009)
3B Andy Marte (2006)

Quick Take: The Red Sox used Hanley Ramírez and Yoán Moncada as trade chips before they made a big league impact, but they deserve credit for turning them into Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell and Chris Sale. It's also hard to believe Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers were never their No. 1 overall prospects, else this list would read differently.

Chicago Cubs

6 of 30
Philadelphia Phillies v Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant

Great

3B Kris Bryant (2015)

Good

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (2023)
2B Nico Hoerner (2019)
DH Eloy Jiménez (2017)
2B Gleyber Torres (2016)
SS Javier Báez (2013-14)
SP Chris Archer (2011)
SS Starlin Castro (2010)

Not So Good

OF Brennen Davis (2022)
SP Brailyn Marquez (2020-21)
SS Aramis Ademan (2018)
OF Brett Jackson (2012)
3B Josh Vitters (2008-09)
OF Félix Pie (2006-07)
1B Brian Dopirak (2005)
RP Angel Guzmán (2004)

Quick Take: It's no coincidence the Cubs went from a steady stream of prospect whiffs during the 2000s to a more successful system in the 2010s ahead of their long-awaited 2016 World Series title. Hitting on trade pickup Pete Crow-Armstrong helps ease some of the sting from giving up Chris Archer and Gleyber Torres when they were still prospects.

Chicago White Sox

7 of 30
Chicago White Sox v Detroit Tigers
Chris Sale

Great

1B José Abreu (2014)
SP Chris Sale (2011)

Good

SS Colson Montgomery (2022-23)
OF Luis Robert Jr. (2020)
DH Eloy Jiménez (2018-19)
3B Yoán Moncada (2017)
SS Tim Anderson (2016)
SP Carlos Rodón (2015)
RP Bobby Jenks (2006)

Not So Good

1B Andrew Vaughn (2021)
OF Courtney Hawkins (2014)
RP Addison Reed (2013)
OF Jared Mitchell (2010)
IF Gordon Beckham (2009)
SP Aaron Poreda (2008)
OF Ryan Sweeney (2007)
OF Brian Anderson (2005)
OF Jeremy Reed (2004)

Quick Take: There was a time when it looked like the foursome of Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr. would make the White Sox perennial contenders. Now they are hoping for a more successful outcome from a rising young core headlined by Colson Montgomery.

Cincinnati Reds

8 of 30
Kansas City Royals v Cincinnati Reds
Aroldis Chapman

Great

RP Aroldis Chapman (2011)

Good

SS Elly De La Cruz (2023)
SP Hunter Greene (2020)
3B Todd Frazier (2010)
1B Yonder Alonso (2009)
OF Jay Bruce (2008)
SP Homer Bailey (2005-07)

Not So Good

SS Jose Barrero (2021-22)
IF Nick Senzel (2017-19)
RP Robert Stephenson (2014-16)
OF Billy Hamilton (2013)
C Devin Mesoraco (2012)
RP Ryan Wagner (2004)

Quick Take: Can current rising stars Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz get over the hump from good to great? For a system that has failed to churn out a true superstar-level talent since Joey Votto, who peaked at No. 3 on the organization list, it could be the key to finding more sustainable contention.

Cleveland Guardians

9 of 30
Philadelphia Phillies v Cleveland Indians
Francisco Lindor

Great

SS Francisco Lindor (2012, 2014-15)
C/1B Carlos Santana (2009-10)

Good

SP Gavin Williams (2023)
SP Trevor Bauer (2013)
3B/OF Lonnie Chisenhall (2011)
OF Grady Sizemore (2004)

Not So Good

IF/OF Tyler Freeman (2022)
OF Nolan Jones (2020)
SP Triston McKenzie (2019, 2021)
C Francisco Mejia (2017-18)
OF Bradley Zimmer (2016)
SP Adam Miller (2005-08)

Quick Take: The Guardians at least got brief productivity out of Bradley Zimmer and Triston McKenzie, while Nolan Jones, Tyler Freeman and Francisco Mejia were similarly useful for a brief time. That leaves their list looking better than it might suggest at first glance, and don't sleep on Gavin Williams as a guy with the potential to jump from good to great.

Colorado Rockies

10 of 30
Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers
Troy Tulowitzki

Great

3B Nolan Arenado (2013)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (2007)

Good

SS Ezequiel Tovar (2023)
SP Jon Gray (2014, 2016)
SP/RP Drew Pomeranz (2012)
RP Tyler Matzek (2010-11)
OF Dexter Fowler (2009)

Not So Good

OF Zac Veen (2022)
2B Brendan Rodgers (2017-21)
OF David Dahl (2015)
RP Franklin Morales (2008)
3B Ian Stewart (2005)
SP Chin-Hui Tsao (2004)

Quick Take: The Rockies turned two of their No. 1 prospects into bona fide franchise icons, and have a better track record than expected given their long-standing struggles. Dexter Fowler (Cubs), Tyler Matzek (Braves) and Jon Gray (Rangers) also made positive contributions to World Series champions while playing elsewhere.

Detroit Tigers

11 of 30
Detroit Tigers v Seattle Mariners
Justin Verlander

Great

SP Justin Verlander (2006)
OF Curtis Granderson (2005)

Good

OF Riley Greene (2022)
1B Spencer Torkelson (2021)
SP Casey Mize (2019-20)
SP Michael Fulmer (2016)
3B/OF Nick Castellanos (2013-14)
SP Rick Porcello (2008-09)
OF Cameron Maybin (2007)

Not So Good

SP Jackson Jobe (2023)
SP Franklin Pérez (2018)
SP Matt Manning (2017)
2B Devon Travis (2015)
SP Jacob Turner (2010-12)
SP Kyle Sleeth (2004)

Quick Take: After a dry spell following the tremendous success of Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson, the Tigers are back to churning out quality top prospect talent, and that has continued this year with Kevin McGonigle. It's also not too late for Jackson Jobe to be a major part of the team's future.

Houston Astros

12 of 30
Houston Astros v Boston Red Sox
Carlos Correa

Great

3B Alex Bregman (2016)
SS Carlos Correa (2013-15)

Good

SP Hunter Brown (2023)
SP Luis Garcia (2021)
SP Jordan Lyles (2011)
C Jason Castro (2009-10)
OF Hunter Pence (2007)

Not So Good

C Korey Lee (2022)
SP Forrest Whitley (2018-20)
SP Francis Martes (2017)
1B Jon Singleton (2012)
C J.R. Towles (2008)
SP Jason Hirsch (2006)
2B Chris Burke (2005)
RP Taylor Buchholz (2004)

Quick Take: Even with some major prospect busts like Jon Singleton and Forrest Whitley, the Astros still have a strong track record of development. Right-hander Hunter Brown is their best top-tier pitching prospect conversion since Roy Oswalt, and stands as the clear ace of the staff in a post-Framber Valdez world.

Kansas City Royals

13 of 30
Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr.

Great

SS Bobby Witt Jr. (2020-22)
OF Alex Gordon (2006-07)
SP Zack Greinke (2004)

Good

SP Brady Singer (2019)
1B Eric Hosmer (2011)
3B Mike Moustakas (2008-09)
DH Billy Butler (2005)

Not So Good

OF Gavin Cross (2023)
1B Nick Pratto (2018)
RP Josh Staumont (2017)
SS Adalberto Mondesi (2015-16)
RP Kyle Zimmer (2013-14)
SP/RP Mike Montgomery (2012)

Quick Take: The Royals don't reach back-to-back World Series without the contributions of Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, not to mention Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar who were acquired in the deal that sent Zack Greinke to the Brewers. Now they have their best all-around player since Carlos Beltrán, and perhaps all the way back to George Brett, in rising superstar Bobby Witt Jr.

Los Angeles Angels

14 of 30
New York Mets v Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout

Great

DH/SP Shohei Ohtani (2018)

OF Mike Trout (2011-12)

Good

C Logan O'Hoppe (2023)

SP/RP Reid Detmers (2022)

OF Jo Adell (2019-21)

OF Taylor Ward (2016)

Not So Good

IF/OF Jahmai Jones (2017)

RP Sean Newcomb (2015)

2B Taylor Lindsey (2014)

3B Kaleb Cowart (2013)

C Hank Conger (2010)

SP Nick Adenhart (2009) — career tragically cut short

SS Brandon Wood (2006-08)

1B Casey Kotchman (2004-05)

Quick Take: The greatest player of his generation (Mike Trout) and the most uniquely talented player in baseball history (Shohei Ohtani) are doing a lot of work propping up the Angels' track record. Jo Adell and Reid Detmers both raised their profile last year, and this finally seems like a pipeline trending in the right direction.

Los Angeles Dodgers

15 of 30
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers, 2008 NL Championship Series
Clayton Kershaw

Great

1B/OF Cody Bellinger (2017)
SS Corey Seager (2015-16)
SP Clayton Kershaw (2008)

Good

C Keibert Ruiz (2019, 2021)
SP Walker Buehler (2018)
OF Joc Pederson (2014)
SP Hyun Jin Ryu (2013)
IF Dee Strange-Gordon (2010-11)
SP Chad Billingsley (2006)
SP Edwin Jackson (2004)

Not So Good

C Diego Cartaya (2022-23)
2B Gavin Lux (2020)
SP Zach Lee (2012)
OF Andrew Lambo (2009)
3B Andy LaRoche (2007)
SS Joel Guzmán (2005)

Quick Take: Not only have the Dodgers done a good job developing their top prospects, but they've also had a good read on which ones are worth clinging tightly to and which ones are better used as trade chips. Has there ever been a pitcher drafted out of high school who followed a better developmental arc than Clayton Kershaw?

Miami Marlins

16 of 30
Tampa Bay Rays v Florida Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton

Great

SP Sandy Alcantara (2018)
SP José Fernández (2013)
OF Christian Yelich (2012)
OF Giancarlo Stanton (2010)

Good

SP Eury Pérez (2022-23)
SP Braxton Garrett (2017)
SP Andrew Heaney (2014)
OF Cameron Maybin (2009)

Not So Good

SP Sixto Sánchez (2019-21)
SP Tyler Kolek (2015-16)
3B Matt Dominguez (2011)
SP Chris Volstad (2007-08)
OF Jeremy Hermida (2004-06)

Quick Take: The Marlins spent big to win their 1997 and 2003 titles, but they have since become more reliant on young, controllable talent. Aside from big misses on Tyler Kolek (No. 2 overall pick in 2014) and Sixto Sánchez (centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade), the last 20 years have seen plenty of impact talent emerge from their system.

Milwaukee Brewers

17 of 30
Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers, Game 4
Prince Fielder

Great

SP Yovani Gallardo (2007)
1B Prince Fielder (2006)

Good

OF Jackson Chourio (2023)
2B Brice Turang (2020-21)
SS Orlando Arcia (2016)
SP Jimmy Nelson (2014)
SS Alcides Escobar (2009-10)
2B Rickie Weeks (2004-05)

Not So Good

SP/RP Aaron Ashby (2022)
2B Keston Hiura (2019)
OF Lewis Brinson (2017-18)
OF Tyrone Taylor (2015)
SP Wily Peralta (2012-13)
SP Mark Rogers (2011)
1B Matt LaPorta (2008)

Quick Take: The 2010s were riddled with busts for the Brewers, and even the players who did make an impact like Jimmy Nelson and Orlando Arcia did it with a brief peak. The tides have turned with guys like Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio, and they now have the consensus top farm system in baseball.

Minnesota Twins

18 of 30
Seattle Mariners v Minnesota Twins
Joe Mauer

Great

OF Byron Buxton (2014-16)
C Joe Mauer (2004-05)

Good

3B Royce Lewis (2018-20, 2023)
3B Miguel Sano (2012-13)
SP Kyle Gibson (2011)
OF Aaron Hicks (2009-10)
SP Matt Garza (2007)
SP Francisco Liriano (2006)

Not So Good

OF Austin Martin (2022)
OF Alex Kirilloff (2021)
IF/OF Nick Gordon (2017)
SP Nick Blackburn (2008)

Quick Take: The Twins have a homegrown Hall of Famer in Joe Mauer and an elite-level per-game performer in Byron Buxton, but beyond that the No. 1 prospect picture has not been great. Royce Lewis was the team's headliner for three years before adding a fourth after a two-year hiatus, as his ceiling helped carry his injury-plagued developmental arc.

New York Mets

19 of 30
Washington Nationals v New York Mets
Zack Wheeler

Great

SP Zack Wheeler (2012-13)

Good

C Francisco Alvarez (2021-23)

2B/SS Andrés Giménez (2018-19)

IF/OF Amed Rosario (2017)

SP Steven Matz (2016)

SP Noah Syndergaard (2014-15)

SP Mike Pelfrey (2007)

SP Scott Kazmir (2004)

Not So Good

IF Ronny Mauricio (2020)

RP Jenrry Mejia (2010-11)

OF Fernando Martinez (2008-09)

OF Lastings Milledge (2005-06)

Quick Take: The Mets deserve credit for using Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to acquire franchise cornerstone Francisco Lindor, maximizing their peak value. Noah Syndergaard had an elite peak with the Mets, while Zack Wheeler has long surpassed his Mets body of work since joining the Phillies.

New York Yankees

20 of 30
World Series - Los Angeles Dodgers v New York Yankees - Game 4
Gleyber Torres

Great

None

Good

SS Anthony Volpe (2022-23)
2B/SS Gleyber Torres (2017-18)
SP Luis Severino (2015)
C Gary Sánchez (2014)
OF Austin Jackson (2009)
SP Phil Hughes (2006-07)
C Dioner Navarro (2004)

Not So Good

OF Jasson Domínguez (2020-21)
OF Estevan Florial (2019)
SS/OF Jorge Mateo (2016)
OF Mason Williams (2013)
C Jesús Montero (2010-12)
RP Joba Chamberlain (2008)
3B Eric Duncan (2005)

Quick Take: Before you ask, Aaron Judge was No. 2 in 2015 and No. 3 in 2016, but never occupied the top spot on the Yankees top prospect list. Despite his inconsistent performance last year and injury-plagued start to 2026, shortstop Anthony Volpe still stands as their most productive top prospect in years.

Philadelphia Phillies

21 of 30
Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels
Cole Hamels

Great

1B Ryan Howard (2005)
SP Cole Hamels (2004-06)

Good

3B Alec Bohm (2019)
SS J.P. Crawford (2015-18)
SP Carlos Carrasco (2007-08)

Not So Good

SP Andrew Painter (2023)
SP Mick Abel (2022)
SP Spencer Howard (2020-21)
3B Maikel Franco (2014)
SP Jesse Biddle (2013)
RP Trevor May (2012)
OF Domonic Brown (2009-11)

Quick Take: Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard are two of the best homegrown players in Phillies history, but it's been a while since a true franchise cornerstone emerged from their system. There is still time for Andrew Painter to develop into a key cog in the rotation and break a string of pitching flops.

Pittsburgh Pirates

22 of 30
Cleveland Indians v Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen

Great

SP Gerrit Cole (2012-13)
OF Andrew McCutchen (2007-08)

Good

SS/OF Oneil Cruz (2022)
3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (2021)
SP Mitch Keller (2018-20)
OF Austin Meadows (2017)
SP Tyler Glasnow (2015-16)
SP Jameson Taillon (2011)
3B Pedro Alvarez (2009-10)
2B Neil Walker (2006)
SP/RP Zach Duke (2005)

Not So Good

C Endy Rodríguez (2023)
OF Gregory Polanco (2014)
SP John Van Benschoten (2004)

Quick Take: The Pirates lean heavily on low-cost, controllable talent, and they managed to ride Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole to three straight playoff appearances a decade ago. With Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler and Konnor Griffin slotted in the No. 1 spot the last three years, things are again trending up.

San Diego Padres

23 of 30
Chicago White Sox v San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Great

OF Fernando Tatis Jr. (2018-19)
1B Anthony Rizzo (2012)

Good

OF Jackson Merrill (2023)
SS CJ Abrams (2022)
SP MacKenzie Gore (2020-21)
3B Chase Headley (2008)

Not So Good

SP Anderson Espinoza (2017)
RP Javy Guerra (2016)
SP Matt Wisler (2015)
C Austin Hedges (2014)
SP Casey Kelly (2011, 2013)
OF Donovan Tate (2010)
OF Kyle Blanks (2009)
OF Cedric Hunter (2007)
SP Cesar Carrillo (2006)
2B Josh Barfield (2004-05)

Quick Take: That laundry list of "Not So Good" results here might be part of the reason Padres team president AJ Preller has been so willing to flip his top prospects for established veteran talent in recent years. At the same time, he made the right call holding onto Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill.

San Francisco Giants

24 of 30
World Series - San Francisco Giants v Kansas City Royals - Game Seven
Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey

Great

C Buster Posey (2010)
SP Madison Bumgarner (2009)
SP Tim Lincecum (2007)
SP Matt Cain (2005-06)

Good

OF Heliot Ramos (2018)
1B Brandon Belt (2011)

Not So Good

SS Marco Luciano (2020-23)
C Joey Bart (2019)
SP Tyler Beede (2017)
IF Christian Arroyo (2016)
C Andrew Susac (2015)
RP Kyle Crick (2013-14)
OF Gary Brown (2012)
1B Angel Villalona (2008)
RP Merkin Valdéz (2004)

Quick Take: It's not a coincidence that five of the six top prospect success stories for the Giants lined up with their run of three World Series titles in five years. The lean times since have been accompanied by less successful development, though Heliot Ramos is a rare homegrown All-Star bat.

Seattle Mariners

25 of 30
Seattle Mariners v Baltimore Orioles
Félix Hernández

Great

OF Julio Rodríguez (2020-22)
SP Félix Hernández (2004-05)

Good

SP Taijuan Walker (2014)
C Mike Zunino (2013)
OF Adam Jones (2007)

Not So Good

C Harry Ford (2023) — has not yet debuted, consensus Top 100 prospect
SP Justus Sheffield (2019)
OF Kyle Lewis (2017-18)
C Alex Jackson (2015-16)
C Jesús Montero (2012)
2B Dustin Ackley (2010-11)
OF Greg Halman (2009)
C Jeff Clement (2006, 2008)

Quick Take: The Mariners had a long, disappointing history of developing their top bats prior to Kyle Lewis winning 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, and his career was quickly derailed by injury. That trend finally changed with the development of Julio Rodríguez into a homegrown superstar.

St. Louis Cardinals

26 of 30
St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Walker

Great

None

Good

OF Jordan Walker (2022-23)
SP Marco Gonzales (2015)
SP/RP Shelby Miller (2010-12)
OF Colby Rasmus (2007-09)

Not So Good

OF Dylan Carlson (2020-21)
SP/RP Alex Reyes (2016-19)
OF Oscar Taveras (2013-14) — career tragically cut short
SP Anthony Reyes (2005-06)
SP Blake Hawksworth (2004)

Quick Take: The Cardinals do an excellent job finding diamonds in the rough in their farm system, but their conversion rate on No. 1 guys over the last two decades has been surprisingly weak. That said, they have a rising star on their hands in Jordan Walker.

Tampa Bay Rays

27 of 30
MLB: OCT 06 ALDS Game 1 - Rangers at Rays
Evan Longoria

Great

SP Blake Snell (2016)
SP David Price (2009)
3B Evan Longoria (2008)

Good

SP Shane Baz (2022-23)
SS Willy Adames (2015, 2017)
SP Jake Odorizzi (2014)
OF Wil Myers (2013)
SP Matt Moore (2012)
SP Jeremy Hellickson (2011)
OF Desmond Jennings (2010)
OF B.J. Upton (2004)

Not So Good

SS Wander Franco (2019-21)
RP Brent Honeywell (2018)
OF Delmon Young (2005-07)

Quick Take: The Rays have turned their No. 1 prospect pool into a pair of franchise icons and a long list of contributors and valuable trade chips. With a 98 OPS+ and 3.2 WAR, it's hard to slot Delmon Young in the "Good" category, but he did have a 10-year career and hit 109 home runs.

Texas Rangers

28 of 30
Houston Astros v Texas Rangers
Yu Darvish

Great

SP Yu Darvish (2012)
1B Adrián González (2004)

Good

OF Evan Carter (2023)
SP Jack Leiter (2022)
3B Josh Jung (2020-21)
OF Joey Gallo (2015-16)
2B Rougned Odor (2014)
OF Jurickson Profar (2013)
SP Martín Pérez (2011)
RP Neftali Feliz (2009-10)
SS Elvis Andrus (2008)
SP John Danks (2007)
SP Edinson Volquez (2006)

Not So Good

SP Hans Crouse (2019)
OF Willie Calhoun (2018)
OF Leody Taveras (2017)
SP Thomas Diamond (2005)

Quick Take: The Rangers have not had a No. 1 prospect turn into a true star since Yu Darvish made the jump from the Japanese League, though Joey Gallo had a dynamic peak. Wyatt Langford was never the team's top guy, but he has overtaken Evan Carter as a rising star in the current outfield.

Toronto Blue Jays

29 of 30
Toronto Blue Jays v Minnesota Twins
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Great

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2017-19)

Good

C Gabriel Moreno (2022)
SP/RP Aaron Sanchez (2013-14)
C Travis d'Arnaud (2012)
1B Adam Lind (2007)
OF Alex Rios (2004)

Not So Good

SP Ricky Tiedemann (2023) — has not yet debuted
OF Austin Martin (2021)
SP Nate Pearson (2020)
OF Anthony Alford (2016)
SP/RP Daniel Norris (2015)
SP Kyle Drabek (2011)
SP Zach Stewart (2010)
OF Travis Snider (2008-09)
RP Dustin McGowan (2006)
RP Brandon League (2005)

Quick Take: The Blue Jays system has not provided much in the way of impact talent since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arrived on the scene, though they did turn Gabriel Moreno into Daulton Varsho in a trade with the D-backs. Developing elite pitching has not been this organization's strong suit, though Trey Yesavage could break that trend.

Washington Nationals

30 of 30
Division Series - Washington Nationals v San Francisco Giants - Game Three
Bryce Harper

Great

OF Bryce Harper (2011-12)
SP Stephen Strasburg (2010)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (2006)

Good

OF James Wood (2023)
C Keibert Ruiz (2022)
OF Victor Robles (2017-19)
SP Lucas Giolito (2014-16)
3B Anthony Rendon (2013)
SP Jordan Zimmermann (2009)

Not So Good

SP Cade Cavalli (2021)
3B Carter Kieboom (2020)
1B Chris Marrero (2008)
RP Collin Balester (2007)
RP Mike Hinckley (2005)
SP Clint Everts (2004)

Quick Take: Few prospects in recent memory have entered the league with more buzz than Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and all things considered, both lived up to the hype. Slugger James Wood is emerging as the face of the franchise for the current roster after coming over in the Juan Soto blockbuster.

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