Predicting 2026 MLB Trade Deadline's Biggest Names Up for Grabs

Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline is still a bit more than two months away, but we're also now more than two months into the campaign and ready to start seriously talking about the biggest names available.

Whoa-oa, we're halfway there.

Whoa-oa, living on a prayer (of a Tarik Skubal or Mike Trout blockbuster).

Before we dive in, here's your obligatory reminder that a lot can change between now and the trade deadline.

At this time one year ago, the Blue Jays were 27-28 and the Brewers were 29-28 en route to securing the No. 1 seeds in the postseason. The year before that, the Astros were 24-31 and the Mets were 22-32 on the morning of May 29, and they both ended up being deadline buyers who made the playoffs.

However, utilizing the Playoff Odds from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and PECOTA as a guide for who is presently least likely to be playing in October—only teams at a consensus 25 percent or lower were considered as possible sellers—we've put together a position-by-position list of what could be the biggest names up for grabs at this year's trade deadline.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play on Thursday.

Catcher: Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

Contract: $6.7M, Free Agent this winter

2026 Stats: .295/.408/.541, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 1.7 bWAR

To the surprise of most, the Minnesota Twins refuse to go away.

In fact, on Memorial Day morning—when we are unofficially allowed to pay any mind to the standings for the first time in any given season—the Twins were a game ahead of Toronto and two games ahead of Seattle and Texas for the AL's No. 6 seed.

Are they here to stay, though?

Or will this be a repeat of the last two seasons, in which a wild card spot on Memorial Day meant nothing en route to missing the playoffs?

The aforementioned consensus odds put the Twins at around 16 percent. And if they're destined to fade once again, Ryan Jeffers is unquestionably the most desirable catcher who is headed for free agency in a few months—provided he makes it back from his recently broken left hamate well in advance of the trade deadline and picks up anywhere near where he left off with a .949 OPS.

However, where things could get mighty interesting on the backstop trade block is if the Orioles continue to flounder in sub-.500 land and become willing to at least listen to offers for Adley Rutschman, who has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining.

We'll believe that one when we see it, though.

First Base: Christian Walker, Houston Astros

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Contract: $20M in 2026, $20M in 2027

2026 Stats: .255/.330/.519, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 1.9 bWAR

Barely one year ago, Christian Walker's contract was one of the most untradeable albatrosses in all of baseball.

The then-34-year-old first baseman in season No. 1 of a three-year, $60M deal had a sub-.600 OPS in his first 50 games played with Houston, looking every bit as washed up as José Abreu did at the outset of a nearly identical contract two years prior.

From May 24 onward, though, Walker looked much more like his old self with 22 home runs and a .778 OPS. And he has been even better two months into the current campaign, on pace for what would be the first 40 homer season of his career.

However, with how bad Houston's pitching has been in the process of falling to as far as 11 games below .500 a week ago, Walker could be available to the highest bidder.

We shall see if they're actually sellers, though. The Astros are still within striking distance in the wide-open AL West and wild card races, and they should be getting all of Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier, Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve back from the IL within the next couple of weeks.

If Walker doesn't land on the trade block, the first-base market sure is looking bleak. The next-best option might be Baltimore's Ryan Mountcastle—and he might be out until July with a broken foot.

Second Base: Luis Arraez, San Francisco Giants

Contract: $12M, Free Agent this winter

2026 Stats: .325/.366/.432, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, 2.1 bWAR

Before we completely write off the 22-34 Giants as a trade deadline seller, it bears mentioning they have 13 games remaining against the even worse Colorado Rockies, 10 of which will be played between now and the All-Star Break. And if you're going to climb out of a massive hole, that's as good a place to start as any.

However, it is looking pretty likely that they'll at least be willing to part with their impending free agents, which is a list that includes Luis Arraez.

Wednesday afternoon was a near-perfect encapsulation of how things have been going for both Arraez and the Giants: The three-time batting champ went 3-for-4 with three singles, a stolen base and a pair of RBIs...as San Francisco lost 3-2 to Arizona, swept for the fifth time already this season.

The high batting average is nothing new, but who could have possibly guessed 10 weeks ago that Arraez would be a Gold Glove candidate, too?

From 2019-25, Arraez ranked dead last in the majors with an Outs Above Average rating of minus-61.

This year, though? Tied for third-best in the majors at a plus-9, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

If that continues to be the case, Arraez just might be the most in-demand rental of them all this summer.

Third Base: Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

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Contract: $9.35M, $13.35M club option for 2027

2026 Stats: .239/.330/.364, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 0.9 bWAR

Circling back to our previous discussion on Christian Walker, could Isaac Paredes also be on the trade block if the Astros are throwing in the towel?

Most likely, it would be an either/or situation, with Houston willing to part with one before cementing the other at first base for 2027.

But if they're really admitting defeat and even putting Yordan Alvarez up for grabs with two years remaining on his deal?

Well, then it's notable that Houston could have the two most intriguing corner infielders available—similar to Arizona's Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor tandem last year, but with an additional year of team control on each to sweeten the asking price.

Can Paredes turn things around, though?

An All-Star in each of the past two seasons and a recipient of votes for AL MVP in 2023, Paredes presently has an OPS nearly 100 points below what he averaged over the previous three years. He usually peaks in May and June before fading considerably down the stretch, too, but maybe he can flip that script this year.

Shortstop: CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

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Contract: $4.2M, arbitration-eligible in both 2027 and 2028

2026 Stats: .294/.388/.549, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB, 2.3 bWAR

Over the previous three seasons, CJ Abrams was quietly one of five players with at least 50 home runs and 100 stolen bases, joining a club that otherwise featured Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll and José Ramírez.

However, because he had a sub-.750 OPS in each of those three seasons—and because his defense at shortstop was simply abysmal—people scoffed at how substantial some of hypothetical trade packages were that we cooked up back in December for three years of Abrams' services.

His glove is still atrocious, but now that he has an OPS that ranks top 10 in the majors, the thought of giving up multiple quality prospects to acquire Abrams' bat for the next few years isn't looking like such a bad idea these days.

The problem now, though, is that the Nationals have been much better than expected, at least on offense. They lead the majors in runs scored and even surged to a winning record after a recent stretch of four straight victories over Atlanta and Cleveland.

Still, Baseball-Reference gives Washington a less than 15 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, while FanGraphs and PECOTA are both down below five percent, unwilling to believe that this pitching staff could possibly get the job done. So, it's still likely that the Nationals will be sellers, but we'll see if they're willing to part with what has become one of the pillars of the franchise.

If not, the shortstop market is looking mighty bleak—unless the Astros put together a fire sale that includes Jeremy Peña, who has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Outfielder A: Taylor Ward, Baltimore Orioles

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Contract: $12.175M, Free Agent this winter

2026 Stats: .250/.394/.355, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 1.3 bWAR

Rather than specifying a left, center and right fielder, we're just nominating three outfielders who should make intriguing trade chips, starting with this former slugger who has turned into an OBP king.

The Orioles traded Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward this past offseason, hoping to benefit from the 36 home runs and 103 RBI that Ward accumulated last season with the Angels.

But after a five-year stretch with a .449 slugging percentage, Ward has sputtered through a power outage of just two home runs in 251 trips to the plate.

In lieu of his usual barrels, though, Ward has become one of the most selective hitters in all of baseball. He is leading the majors in chase rate (11.5 percent), he's nearly leading the majors in walk rate (19.1 percent) and he has spent most of this season with an OBP north of .400.

He's not the type of asset that the Orioles thought they were getting, but he definitely has been an asset that any number of teams could benefit from acquiring, even if he doesn't turn things around in the HR department.

Outfielder B: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

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Contract: $7.7M, arbitration-eligible in both 2027 and 2028

2026 Stats: .213/.281/.391, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 10 SB, 0.9 bWAR

After an atrocious April that culminated in a .481 OPS, Jarren Duran has come to life in a big way in the month of May with seven home runs and an .866 OPS.

Yet, the Red Sox have continued to flounder in last place in the AL East, maybe, sort of, kind of trending toward selling at the trade deadline.

For now, they're still well within striking distance of a wild card spot, eight games below .500, but only three games back for the No. 6 seed. At any rate, of the 15 teams with consensus playoff odds below 25 percent, Boston was closest to being excluded from consideration at 24.6 percent.

With this particular regular in trade block conversations, though, Duran could be on the move regardless of whether Boston is buying or selling—provided Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are all healthy heading into the deadline and the Red Sox are willing to trade from their outfield surplus.

It'd be more complicated to make it happen if they're buying, as a traditional two-team swap would require a contender that both needs an outfielder and has a surplus of infielders that could help fix Boston's offense. But they could always try to put together a three-team deal, maybe something like shipping Duran to the Reds or White Sox, who send enough prospects to Houston to get the Astros to move Isaac Paredes to the Red Sox.

Outfielder C: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

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Contract: $37.1M annually through 2030

2026 Stats: .232/.397/.474, 13 HR, 28 RBI, 5 SB, 2.0 bWAR

A lot of hoops need to be jumped through in order to get Mike Trout legitimately onto the trade block.

He has a full no-trade clause and can unilaterally block any trade from transpiring. He also has an owner in Arte Moreno who would probably rather just continue to lose than trade away one of the greatest players in recent history and watch him win a ring elsewhere. Lastly, Trout has a lethal contract size/injury history combination that could keep anything from coming together, even if both Trout and Moreno came out in a joint press conference and said they're happy to entertain offers. (Which would never happen.)

Counterpoint: The Angels are a dumpster fire, already all but guaranteed an 11th consecutive season with a losing record. And though his slugging has fallen off a cliff after a fantastic opening month, Trout remains on track for what might be his highest WAR in a single season since 2019 and is about as tradable right now as he has ever been.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox have an abundance of wiggle room in the budget (both now and for the next five years) and a winning record in spite of an "as CF" batting split of zero home runs and a .585 OPS. If they aren't at least forcing the Angels to repeatedly say no on Trout, they aren't doing their due diligence.

(Chicago certainly isn't the only team that could be pursuing Trout, but it's arguably the most obvious fit.)

Right-Handed Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Contract: $6.2M; arbitration-eligible for 2027

2026 Stats: 64.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.4 bWAR

One month ago, the pick here almost certainly would have been trade speculations staple Sandy Alcantara.

However, while the Marlins ace has been lit up for at least six earned runs in three of his last five starts and an overall ERA of 7.39 in May, Joe Ryan has been shoving for the Twins to the tune of four consecutive quality starts with a 1.75 ERA. He's not exactly neck-and-neck with Cam Schlittler for the AL Cy Young award, but he almost has to be top 10 in that race.

As we previously discussed in highlighting Ryan Jeffers as the top catcher likely to be on the trade block, it's impossible to say at this point whether the Twins will be sellers—but we're still leaning in that direction.

FanGraphs puts Minnesota's postseason odds at slightly north of 30 percent, while Baseball-Reference says not even six percent. Either way, though, the chances aren't great, even if they are better than expected.

And if they do end up selling at the deadline for a second consecutive summer, there's little question that Ryan is their biggest trade chip liable to spark a bidding war.

Left-Handed Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

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Contract: $32M, Free Agent this winter

2026 Stats: 43.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.6 bWAR

Since undergoing an operation to remove "loose bodies in his pitching elbow" in early May, Tarik Skubal has already progressed to facing live batting practice. He could be back pitching in the majors by mid-to-late June.

Also since Skubal underwent that operation, though, the Tigers have gone belly up. Prior to beating the Angels on Wednesday, they had lost 17 of 20 games, cratering to within a stone's throw of the worst record in baseball.

As a result, there has been a steadily growing belief that Skubal could be the headliner of a substantial fire sale, with the Tigers also possessing soon-to-be free agents Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and more.

Two-month rentals usually don't fetch a king's ransom on the trade block these days. Then again, twice-reigning Cy Young winners don't often find their way to the trade block, either. And if Skubal truly is available, the package heading Detroit's way could be even more substantial than what Cleveland got for sending CC Sabathia to Milwaukee nearly two decades ago.

Our Zach Rymer put together a list of possible trade packages for Skubal earlier this week, but allow me to add one more to the speculative heap: Skubal to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Edward Florentino and LHP Hunter Barco.

We'll see where the Buccos are hanging out in the standings two months from now, but for all the "How to beat the Dodgers in October?" think pieces out there, it'd be hard to argue with having both Skubal and Paul Skenes.

Relief Pitcher: Pete Fairbanks, Miami Marlins

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Contract: $13M, Free Agent this winter

2026 Stats: 14.0 IP, 6 saves, 7.07 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, -0.6 bWAR

The real answer here is "to be determined," as it's plausible that Boston's Aroldis Chapman and/or Houston's Josh Hader could be available to a deep-pocketed team looking to upgrade at closer for more than just the stretch run in 2026.

But Pete Fairbanks on the trade block is a near certainty, with all three projections giving the Marlins a less than five percent chance of reaching the postseason.

His ERA is atrocious, but he gave up three earned runs in a rare start to get some work in before going on the paternity list, gave up three more earned runs nine days later in his first appearance back and then gave up three earned runs in his final outing of April before landing on the IL for three weeks.

Kind of weird circumstances there, but he has been solid since returning from the shelf, allowing one run in five innings of work over the past two weeks. And with 75 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA to show for his previous three seasons of high-leverage work, just about any team with bullpen needs—which ends up being pretty much every contender—will be interested in Fairbanks.