Way-Too-Early MLB Free-Agency Predictions Post-2026 Trade Deadline
With Major League Baseball's trade deadline now behind us, the next big transactional line in the sand is the free agency period that will begin five days after the 2026 World Series ends.
In most offseasons, that early November starting line comes and goes without anything noteworthy happening. But it will be interesting to see what happens this winter, with the current collective bargaining agreement expiring at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1—and a lengthy lockout expected to follow.
Because of that, will some of the biggest names available sign earlier than usual? Or are most players and teams going to wait until the next CBA is ratified to make any substantial decisions?
For the nearly 50 percent of teams who have already given up hope on making the playoffs this season, at least the impending free agency madness is something worth looking forward to.
So let's take an early look at the top names up for grabs this winter, including predictions on where they'll land.
Players are presented in ascending order of expected contract size.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 8
Bo Bichette, 3B, New York Mets
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
The former could opt out of the two years, $84M remaining on his contract. The latter could walk away from the four years, $140M left on his deal. But there's virtually no chance Burnes would do so, still recovering from Tommy John surgery and not liable to even sniff that amount of coin in free agency this winter. Bichette is a maybe, but he has been such a disappointment for most of this season that we're inclined to believe he'll just stick with the Mets for at least one more year.
Clay Holmes, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Another player option, but Holmes' is merely a one-year, $12M clause that he will almost certainly decline. However, he will turn 34 right around Opening Day and has made just 44 starts thus far in his MLB career. Provided he looks good after returning from his broken leg, we could easily see him getting something like a two-year, $50M deal with a club option for a third season. A nine-figure contract would be a bit shocking, though.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Robbie Ray, LHP, San Diego Padres
Two oldies but goodies, Gray turns 37 this November while Ray is about seven weeks away from turning 35. Each one is having a stellar 2026 campaign, but neither is likely to fetch a long-term deal at this age. Maybe Ray could get four years and close to $100M, though.
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Lowe has hit at least 21 home runs in four consecutive seasons and has an OPS of .807 in his nine-year career. But he's already 32 years old, and slugging second basemen rarely if ever hold up into their mid-30's. Throw in the fact that Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Arraez and Gleyber Torres—each yet to celebrate his 30th birthday—will also be available this winter and it's going to be difficult for Lowe to ink a mega contract.
Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins
Jeffers has had a productive four-year run with an OPS of nearly .800, but even the most valuable catchers in the league tend to max out at about a $15M AAV on any sort of long-term deal. And Jeffers probably isn't going to even come close to Cal Raleigh or Will Smith money.
Ian Happ, LF, Chicago Cubs
If anyone not in our top seven is going to fetch a massive payday, it's probably Happ. However, the soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder is having a rough year at the dish, batting just .186 with five home runs over his last 57 games played. He could be headed for a fifth consecutive Gold Glove, though. That'll be worth quite a bit on the open market, especially if his bat wakes up down the stretch.
7. Freddy Peralta, RHP: San Diego Padres
2 of 8
Age: 30
2026 Stats: 117.1 IP, 5.37 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 -0.5 bWAR
Career Stats: 1,048.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 13.8 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $20.0M AAV
To put it lightly, Freddy Peralta isn't having a banner contract year.
From 2021-25, he was one of the better starting pitchers in the game, putting up numbers (3.30 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 10.9 K/9) on par with those of Dylan Cease (3.72 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 11.3 K/9), who got a seven-year, $210M contract when he hit the open market for the first time this past winter.
Had Peralta continued to perform at that level in 2026, he, too, would have been a strong candidate for a $200M type of deal this offseason.
Instead of following in Cease's footsteps, though, Peralta unfortunately has gone the way of Zac Gallen—one poorly timed dreadful season after half a decade of ace-caliber dominance to decimate what was going to be a lucrative market.
To an extent, it has been terrible luck for Peralta. Opponents are slugging .467 against him, but Statcast puts his expected slugging against at .372. He also has an expected ERA of 3.95, which would be more than acceptable if it were his actual ERA.
All the same, he isn't generating swings and misses at anywhere near his usual rate, especially on the changeup that he throws more than 20 percent of the time. This fall from grace has been more than just bad BABIP luck, and a nine-figure contract is nowhere near the sure thing that it seemed to be five months ago.
Several teams are going to view him as a tantalizing buy-low candidate, though.
Foremost among them: The San Diego Padres, who have basically their entire starting rotation headed for free agency and a lot of work to do this winter.
Prediction: 4 years, $84M with the San Diego Padres
6. Casey Mize, RHP: Chicago Cubs
3 of 8
Age: 29
2026 Stats: 90.0 IP, 3.40 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 bWAR
Career Stats: 530.0 IP, 4.06 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 7.2 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $17.4M AAV
The great unknown with Casey Mize is whether he can be trusted to stay healthy.
When available over the past two seasons, Mize has been rock solid.
He was an All-Star last year and Detroit's Game 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal during the 2025 postseason, making two appearances with a 3.00 ERA. And for his 16 starts this year with the Tigers (2.70 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.99 WHIP), Mize was putting up numbers nearly identical to those of Skubal (2.79 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 0.91 WHIP) before both were dealt to the NL West at the deadline.
But Mize has also made four trips to the IL in the past 26 months—with two stints already this season—for various groin and hamstring ailments. He also missed all of 2023 and effectively all of 2022 to Tommy John surgery, making just 69 total appearances since the beginning of 2022.
Because of that, this former No. 1 overall draft pick may have to settle for a contract with some combination of escalators, innings-based incentives and club options in order to sniff a nine-figure deal.
Alternatively, the Cubs might just give Mize a fully guaranteed multi-year deal and hope for the best, given their rotation outlook with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and David Peterson all headed for free agency while Justin Steele and Colin Rea each have one year of team control remaining.
Prediction: 5 years, $90M with the Chicago Cubs
5. Randy Arozarena, LF: Chicago Cubs
4 of 8
Age: 31
2026 Stats: .284/.378/.457, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 20 SB, 3.8 bWAR
Career Stats: .254/.348/.436, 132 HR, 439 RBI, 151 SB, 20.7 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $15.9M AAV
Randy Arozarena has been an All-Star in three of the past four seasons, and he is roughly on pace for what would be his sixth consecutive year with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
That's a testament to both his talent and his durability, also on pace to appear in at least 140 games for a sixth straight year.
Better yet, this has been his most productive season yet at the dish, batting .285 with an .835 OPS.
Some teams may balk at his age, leery about signing someone who is going to turn 32 before next season and who is already a bit of a defensive liability. However, he is easily one of the best position players available, worthy of a deal on par with the five-year, $92.5M contract that Josh Naylor got last winter, or that Anthony Santander signed the winter prior.
Granted, those are terrible reference points for potential value added, as both of those contracts are looking like massive mistakes right about now. But it's hard to imagine Arozarena will need to settle for an AAV any less than $18M.
It'd be fun if this Cuban native went to the Marlins. In his few trips to loanDepot Park, he always has hit quite well. And Miami could be a 20/20 hitter away from legitimately contending in 2027.
But with the Cubs slated to lose both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki this winter, he would fit seamlessly into that outfield.
Prediction: 5 years, $97.5M with the Chicago Cubs
4. Michael King, RHP: Kansas City Royals
5 of 8
Age: 31
2026 Stats: 130.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.8 bWAR
Career Stats: 625.0 IP, 3.28 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 13.7 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $19.3M AAV
We should start out here by noting that Michael King will need to opt out of the remainder of his contract in order to hit free agency. He has two years and $58M remaining on his deal, though he would receive a $5M buyout if he walks.
If he stays healthy for another two months, though, it's very likely he will re-enter the free agent waters in pursuit of a longer term contract for more total money.
Though he only has a 6-8 record to show for it, King has been easily the most valuable cog in the Padres rotation. And after missing slightly more than half of last season, he has yet to miss a turn through the rotation this year. That's huge for a guy who settled for his current short-term contract last winter at least in part due to questions about his durability.
King does have both a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate than usual, barely averaging two whiffs per free pass issued. But he has managed to mitigate the damage while approaching what could be a career high in innings pitched.
Plenty of teams could use his five-pitch arsenal in the No. 2 slot in their rotation, but there has been a pipeline from San Diego to Kansas City for pitchers who come to the Padres as relievers/swingmen before emerging as legitimate top-of-the-rotation arms. Put King in that Royals rotation alongside Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha and perhaps they could go from worst to first in the AL Central
Prediction: 4 years, $104M with the Kansas City Royals
3. Trevor Rogers, LHP: Toronto Blue Jays
6 of 8
Age: 28
2026 Stats: 115.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.3 bWAR
Career Stats: 635.2 IP, 3.89 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 10.4 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $32.0M AAV
From mid-April through the end of May, Trevor Rogers had an absolutely brutal run. We're talking a 10.01 ERA over the course of seven starts, with a brief IL stint in the middle.
It was problematic enough that the Orioles evidently could not trade him away while unloading the likes of Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward and Dean Kremer.
If you take out that rough patch, though, Rogers has made 32 starts (23 quality starts) with a 1.98 ERA since the beginning of last season.
He also had a great run back in 2021, making 25 starts with a 2.64 ERA while finishing first runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year.
Can he stay healthy, though?
And can he maintain anything close to that level of excellence for several consecutive seasons?
Because from 2022-24, Rogers had a 5.09 ERA, making just 52 starts in the big leagues. And while he is presently on pace to shatter his previous career high, he has yet to log more than 133 innings in a single MLB season.
Those are the parts that will scare prospective buyers away from offering him six or seven years. A fastball that tops out at about 96 MPH doesn't help matters, either. But when he's on, he's an ace-caliber southpaw; a slightly poor man's Ranger Suarez who is easily worth more than $1M per start when he's in the zone.
And if your last name was Rogers, wouldn't you want to make home starts at the Rogers Centre?
Toronto does have Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage and José Soriano as staples for next year's rotation, but it does have holes to fill.
Prediction: 4 years, $114M (fourth year is a $30M club option) with Toronto Blue Jays
2. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B: Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 8
Age: 28
2026 Stats: .217/.295/.399, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 30 SB, 1.1 bWAR
Career Stats: .243/.313/.446, 125 HR, 355 RBI, 160 SB, 13.6 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $12.9M AAV
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is putting up career-worst marks in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And with a .136/.224/.227 line over his last 12 games, he isn't exactly showing signs of snapping out of this season-long funk.
Yet, he's on pace for roughly 23 home runs and 43 stolen bases, this after racking up 55 and 71, respectively, over the previous two seasons.
Second basemen who can put up numbers like those aren't exactly a dime a dozen.
Moreover, Chisholm has been one of the most valuable defensive second basemen in the 2026 campaign, ranking in the 98th percentile in outs above average, per Statcast.
Throw in the fact that he's only 28 and he's probably going to be the most coveted position player this offseason, even with the sub-.700 OPS.
Where will he land, though?
Both Los Angeles teams could use an upgrade at second, and the Washington Nationals have gotten one home run in this entire season from their second basemen.
Re-upping with the Yankees is also well within the realm of possibility, even with the recent promotion of top prospect George Lombard Jr.
However, the Phillies arguably make the most sense here. Luis Arraez was a rental acquisition, both Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa are impending free agents and Bryson Stott has just one year of arbitration eligibility remaining on his contract. And with top infield prospect Aidan Miller yet to play in 2026 due to a back injury, goodness only knows when he'll be ready to factor into the equation.
Prediction: 6 years, $126M with the Philadelphia Phillies
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP: New York Mets
8 of 8
Age: 29
2026 Stats: 102.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.2 bWAR
Career Stats: 869.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 21.3 bWAR
Spotrac Market Value: $42.0M AAV
The crown jewel of the trade deadline, Tarik Skubal is also, without an even remotely close runner-up, the crown jewel of the upcoming class of free agents.
He won the AL Cy Young in both 2024 and 2025. And if he hadn't been traded to the National League, there's a very real chance he would've joined Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux as the only pitchers in MLB history to win three in a row.
That "Skubal Scope" that sidelined him for about six weeks earlier this season? It's a thing of the past, as he has a 2.09 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 over his last seven starts, looking like even more of a force of nature than he was while securing that aforementioned hardware.
It's really just a question of who can justify investing more than $40M per year on a long-term deal with a pitcher.
Assuming for now that there isn't going to be any sort of salary cap implemented this offseason, the omnipresent candidates for such a contract are the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. And of that trio, the Mets are most certainly the most desperate to land a starting pitcher, as the other two each already have three ace-caliber pitchers signed through at least 2028.
The real question is: If not the Mets, then whom?
A reunion with the Tigers isn't out of the question. We don't often see a player re-sign with the team that traded him away, and he might have some serious reservations about re-upping with a team that threw in the towel while within striking distance of a playoff spot. But they definitely do need to add some pitching this winter.
The Nationals could also be a candidate. They didn't trade away CJ Abrams or James Wood, and adding pitching is a must if they intend to contend before Abrams' rookie deal expires in two years. And now that they are almost done paying out all that deferred money to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, maybe it's finally time to invest in winning again.
Most likely, though, it'll be Steve Cohen's checkbook winning this one.
Prediction: 6 years, $280M with the New York Mets
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