Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team After 2023 Schedule Release
We already knew which opponents each NFL team would face in 2023. Now that the regular-season schedule has officially been released, we know exactly when each matchup will take place.
It all starts with a thrilling tilt between the Detroit Lions and defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs to kick off the season Sept. 7.
Not every game looks great on paper now, but surprise contenders often emerge to make late-season matchups better than advertised. Last year's Week 16 Thursday night game between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars, for example, looked like a dud but proved to be a battle between young teams vying for playoff berths.
It's hard to know exactly which teams will exceed expectations and which will disappoint, but now that the schedule is out, it's the perfect time for some early win-loss predictions.
The following projections are based primarily on 2022 results, offseason roster movement and the strength of schedule based on last year's winning percentage.
Teams can't control who they play, but not every schedule is created equal. This year, for example, teams in the AFC East will face the AFC West and NFC East—divisions that sent a combined five teams to the postseason last year. The AFC East had two playoff participants of its own.
Who might make a sizeable jump in 2023? Which teams are poised to take a step back?
Arizona Cardinals
1 of 32
2022 Record: 4-13
2023 Strength of Schedule: .519
With quarterback Kyler Murray still working his way back from a torn ACL, the Arizona Cardinals are likely to struggle, especially early, in 2023.
They have a new head coach in former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, and there would likely be an adjustment period even without Murray's injury. On top of that, this wasn't a particularly talented team a year ago, and it doesn't look a ton better now.
Arizona did land a promising offensive tackle in Paris Johnson Jr., early in the draft, but its free-agent moves were underwhelming.
Linebackers Kyzir White and Krys Barnes and wideout Zach Pascal don't really move the needle, and Zach Allen, Byron Murphy and J.J. Watt (retired) represent notable losses.
Plus, star safety Budda Baker still wants a new contract or wants out of Arizona altogether. Toss in the fact that the Cards face the league's 11th-toughest schedule and four 2022 playoff teams in the first five weeks, and they could be deciding between Murray and projected No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams at quarterback next spring.
Prediction: 4-13
Atlanta Falcons
2 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .417
While the Cardinals might not see improvement in 2023, the Atlanta Falcons should. They spent the bulk of the offseason upgrading their defense and improving the supporting cast of second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.
The Falcons hired former New Orleans Saints defensive line coach and co-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to run their defense. They also added David Onyemata, Bud Dupree, Kaden Elliss, Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates III to that side of the ball.
Offensively, Atlanta boasts a group of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, Jonnu Smith and rookie first-round pick Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons also addressed their offensive line, adding Ethan Greenidge, Joe Gaziano and rookie second-rounder Matthew Bergeron while re-signing Kaleb McGary, Germain Ifedi and Chris Lindstrom.
With a much-improved roster and the league's easiest schedule, it's not hard to envision Atlanta pushing for the NFC South title this year. The Falcons' postseason potential rests largely on Ridder's development, but this will be a better football team.
Prediction: 8-9
Baltimore Ravens
3 of 32
2022 Record: 10-7
2023 Strength of Schedule: .484
The Baltimore Ravens made the 2022 playoffs despite not having star quarterback Lamar Jackson (knee) for the final five games. With Jackson healthy—and under contract—it's hard to envision Baltimore taking a step backward.
There may be an adjustment period with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but Baltimore boasts a top-10-caliber defense and could have a more explosive passing attack with Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers in the fold.
Overall, the Ravens have a relatively easy schedule too.
The question is whether Jackson can stay healthy for an entire 17-game season after failing to do so in each of the past two years. The AFC North is also a tough division. The Cincinnati Bengals are perennial title contenders, and the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns both improved this offseason.
Baltimore's road schedule could be a factor, too, with tough matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers looming.
Depending on Jackson's health and the progress of the new-look offense, the Ravens might not be markedly better this season, but they should still be playoff-bound.
Prediction: 10-7
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Buffalo Bills
4 of 32
2022 Record: 13-3
2023 Strength of Schedule: .542
The Buffalo Bills put a lot of effort into retaining players this offseason. They managed to re-sign Jordan Poyer, Shaq Lawson, David Quessenberry and Sam Martin, also signing linebacker Matt Milano to a two-year extension.
While the Bills didn't add much in free agency, they did land a promising young tight end by taking Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft.
The problem is that Buffalo still doesn't have a reliable third receiver behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and it did little to address the pass rush. The Bills logged 40 sacks in 2022, but their pass rush was never the same following Von Miller's Week 12 ACL tear.
Buffalo still has Josh Allen at quarterback and a defense that ranked sixth in yards allowed and second in points allowed last season. It's not suddenly going to fall out of the playoff mix. However, the Bills could see a slight drop in the win column.
The rest of the AFC East has improved while the Bills have maintained the status quo. A tough schedule and marquee road games against the Bengals, Eagles and Chiefs will make winning a fourth straight division title tricky.
Prediction: 10-7
Carolina Panthers
5 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .453
In the grand scheme of things, the Carolina Panthers' 2023 season will be all about developing rookie quarterback Bryce Young. Finding and developing a QB of the future is why Carolina hired offensive head coach Frank Reich and traded up to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft.
The Panthers also signed quarterback Andy Dalton to serve in the veteran mentor role.
This doesn't mean that Carolina won't be relevant in the NFC South race, however.
The Panthers added proven talent in Miles Sanders, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst, Vonn Bell and Kamu Grugier-Hill. They'll also pair Young with a promising receiver in rookie Jonathan Mingo.
With the sixth-easiest schedule in the league, the Panthers might even challenge for a playoff spot. However, non-divisional games against the Dallas Cowboys and at the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins and Lions should keep expectations in check.
Carolina is a more complete team than it was a year ago, but improving in the win column will require Young to make a very quick adjustment to the size and speed of the NFL.
Prediction: 7-10
Chicago Bears
6 of 32
2022 Record: 3-14
2023 Strength of Schedule: .497
The Chicago Bears had the NFL's least talented roster in 2022, but they had a promising young quarterback in Justin Fields, who rushed for more than 1,100 yards in just his second pro season.
Now, it's all about developing Fields as a passer, and the Bears have put in work to support their quarterback. General manager Ryan Poles traded the No. 1 pick in the draft, acquired wideout DJ Moore as part of the deal and added the likes of Nate Davis, Robert Tonyan and rookie tackle Darnell Wright.
A Chicago defense that ranked dead last in points allowed last season should also be better, with veterans such as T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, Andrew Billings and DeMarcus Walker and rookie Gervon Dexter Sr. incoming.
The Bears will be better in 2023, and with a middle-of-the-road schedule, they should see a jump in win total too. The size of the jump will depend largely on how much growth Fields shows in his third season.
Chicago is probably still a year away from being a playoff team, but it won't be an embarrassment.
Prediction: 6-11
Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 32
2022 Record: 12-4
2023 Strength of Schedule: .510
The Cincinnati Bengals have appeared in back-to-back AFC title games, and they will be in the thick of the conference race once again this season.
The Bengals weren't particularly active in free agency, but they did land Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. That should improve the protection of quarterback Joe Burrow, who was sacked 41 times last season—though right tackle La'el Collins is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL.
Cincinnati also had a strong draft, adding pass-rusher Myles Murphy to a unit that had just 30 sacks in 2022 and cornerback DJ Turner II to the league's 23rd-ranked pass defense. Questions remain about how easily the Bengals can replace departed safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III, but defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will keep his unit competitive.
With Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd leading the offense, Cincinnati should again be in store for double-digit wins.
Expect Cincinnati to challenge for the AFC's No. 1 seed, though with a tough AFC North and non-divisional games against the Seahawks, Bills, Jaguars, Chiefs—a pivotal Week 17 matchup—and 49ers, it's going to be a battle to earn it.
Prediction: 11-6
Cleveland Browns
8 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .460
The Browns have flirted with an above-.500 record in each of the past two seasons, and after a very strong offseason, they should finally get over the proverbial hump and perhaps back into the postseason.
Cleveland addressed its two biggest needs by improving its receiver depth and the talent along the defensive line. Adding Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin and rookie Cedric Tillman will boost the passing attack, Dalvin Tomlinson, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Trysten Hill and rookie Siaki Ika will strengthen the defensive front.
The Browns' 22nrd-ranked passing offense and 25th-ranked run defense should both be better this season.
Cleveland still has high-level playmakers like Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward and David Njoku on the roster, and it added experienced coaches in new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and special-teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone.
With the seventh-easiest schedule in the league, Cleveland should be a playoff challenger. Whether it's anything more than that will depend on how quarterback Deshaun Watson plays in his first full season following last year's 11-game suspension, which came after more than two dozen women accused him of sexual assault and misconduct.
If Watson can show some semblance of the Pro Bowl form he had with the Houston Texans, the Browns could be a surprise AFC contender.
Prediction: 9-8
Dallas Cowboys
9 of 32
2022 Record: 12-5
2023 Strength of Schedule: .549
The Dallas Cowboys should still be in the playoff mix this season, but they probably aren't more of a Super Bowl threat than they were a year ago.
Dallas made a pair of savvy trades, bringing in receiver Stephon Gilmore and wideout Brandin Cooks to replace Anthony Brown and Noah Brown, respectively.
However, the Cowboys largely landed developmental prospects like Mazi Smith and Luke Schoonmaker in the draft. Schoonmaker, for example, may be a year or two away from truly replacing departed tight Dalton Schultz, though he does have upside.
"Schoonmaker's development may take time, however, just as it did in college," Derrik Klassen of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote.
The Cowboys lack an established starting tight end, and 5'5", 179-pound rookie Deuce Vaughn is not a one-for-one replacement for Ezekiel Elliott. With fellow running back Tony Pollard coming off of leg surgery, that's a potentially big problem.
The Cowboys lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this offseason, which leaves another big question mark on offense. They also didn't do enough to address their 22nd-ranked run defense.
With the league's third-toughest schedule (tied)—one that includes six 2022 playoff teams on the road—Dallas is probably staring down another wild-card berth.
Prediction: 10-7
Denver Broncos
10 of 32
2022 Record: 5-12
2023 Strength of Schedule: .517
There are a couple of reasons to believe that the Denver Broncos can rebound from a disastrous 2022. They should have a competent head coach in Sean Payton, and they added players such as Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey to their dreadful offensive line.
Denver still has the bulk of a defense that ranked seventh in yards allowed last season, which will keep them competitive.
However, a lot of questions remain in the Mile High City. Can Payton resurrect the career of Russell Wilson, who was one of the league's worst quarterbacks last season? Was reaching for Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round enough to strengthen a receiving corps that is getting Tim Patrick back from a 2022 torn ACL and has KJ Hamler out with a torn pectoral?
How will running back Javonte Williams fare after his recovery from a torn ACL?
The assumption is that Payton is enough of an offensive mastermind to make it all work. If that happens, Denver might sneak into a wild-card spot. But the Broncos are still stuck in a tough division, face the league's 12th-hardest schedule and will square off against some of their toughest non-divisional opponents—Buffalo, Miami and Detroit—on the road.
Prediction: 8-9
Detroit Lions
11 of 32
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Strength of Schedule: .495
This should be the year that the Detroit Lions get back to the postseason. Their offense ranked fourth in yards and fifth in points in 2022, and they took major steps to address the defense in the offseason.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and second-round pick Brian Branch will have an immediate impact on the back end of Detroit's defense, while rookie linebacker Jack Campbell should instantly become one of the team's top front-seven defenders.
Small defensive improvements should be enough to put the Lions in the playoff hunt, though they'll still lean on their offense—a unit that now has explosive rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs as a centerpiece.
The big unknown is whether Detroit can handle the pressure of playoff expectations.
"We're only going to be better as a team," wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown told reporters in April. "But they're not going to hand it to us. Nothing's going to be given."
The Lions will be in the national spotlight early, visiting Kansas City to start the season.
Detroit will only host two 2022 playoff teams and should have a big edge at home. The less forgiving road slate also includes games against the Chargers, Cowboys and Ravens, but the Lions have a legitimate shot at claiming their first division title in 30 years.
Prediction: 10-7
Green Bay Packers
12 of 32
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Strength of Schedule: .476
The Jordan Love era has arrived, and the Green Bay Packers' season will hinge largely on how much better or worse he is than the version of Aaron Rodgers we saw in 2022.
Rodgers was—let's be realistic—not good. He posted a 91.1 passer rating and never truly connected with young receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. We don't know exactly what to expect from Love, who has only one career start, but the Packers are optimistic.
"Just watching him last year. I think Jordan's made some huge strides," head coach Matt LaFleur recently told reporters.
Green Bay got some weapons for Love in the draft—such as Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks—though they also parted with Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb in the offseason.
It's a nice young group that can grow together, but it's going to take time.
Green Bay's defense, which ranked 17th in yards and points allowed last season, was remarkably average for having stars such as Jaire Alexander, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage in the lineup. Rookie edge-rusher Lukas Van Ness, joins the group, but fans shouldn't expect a dominant unit.
A relatively easy schedule and some questions surrounding the other three NFC North teams means the Packers should remain relevant in the division—especially if Love lives up to his status as a 2020 first-round pick.
Prediction: 8-9
Houston Texans
13 of 32
2022 Record: 3-13-1
2023 Strength of Schedule: .431
The Houston Texans will show progress in 2023. After being bad enough to claim the No. 1 pick in the draft—but ultimately failing to do so—the team has made big improvements.
New head coach DeMeco Ryans, who played for the Texans and comes from the 49ers' staff, will instill a much brighter culture in the locker room. Additions such as Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Sheldon Rankins, Jimmie Ward, Shaq Mason and Case Keenum bring both experience and talent to the roster.
The Texans also drafted key building blocks in quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third overall picks, respectively.
With the third-easiest schedule in the league and an eight-game road slate that features only three 2022 playoff teams, Houston will have plenty of chances to surprise people this season.
However, the Texans are still in the early stages of a massive rebuild, not unlike the division-rival Jaguars of a year ago. A doubling of their win total is possible, but a postseason berth would come as a huge surprise.
Prediction: 6-11
Indianapolis Colts
14 of 32
2022 Record: 4-12-1
2023 Strength of Schedule: .434
Like the Texans, the Indianapolis Colts have a new franchise quarterback. In their case, the Colts took dynamic dual-threat Anthony Richardson out of Florida.
If new head coach Shane Steichen is willing to lean into Richardson's running ability while developing him as a passer, the Colts offense could be unexpectedly dangerous this season.
"Players with his build, athletic profile, arm strength and advanced pocket management are hard to find," B/R NFL scout Derrik Klassen wrote.
Jonathan Taylor is one of the league's best backs, and Indy boasts a solid receiving duo in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. The offense could be borderline good if Steichen and Richardson click quickly and if the Colts avoid the turnovers (34 of them) that plagued them in 2022.
A defense that ranked 15th in yards allowed and tied for 28th in points allowed last season—and parted with Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue in the offseason—certainly won't carry the team.
Indy has the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, so if Richardson surprises, the Colts might too. With a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, however, fans should expect some growing pains.
Prediction: 6-11
Jacksonville Jaguars
15 of 32
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Strength of Schedule: .477
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't just the AFC South's flavor-of-the-season team. Led by third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence and experienced head coach Doug Pederson, Jacksonville is a team on the rise.
The Jags should be considered the favorites in their division, but improving upon last season's 9-8 record won't be easy. The team didn't exactly upgrade many positions, though the arrival of recently reinstated wideout Calvin Ridley, who was suspended for all of 2022 for violating the NFL's gambling policy, could make for an exception.
The big question is whether Jacksonville can continue winning the turnover battle at a high rate (plus-five in turnover differential) despite having a defense that ranked 24th in yards allowed last season. The Jaguars were even worse against the pass (28th) and did pretty much nothing to address their secondary
Unless young defenders such as 2022 first-round picks Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd show tremendous growth, Jacksonville will have to continue relying on turnovers and a high-powered offense to win games—and no one will be taking the Jags lightly this season.
The good news is that Jacksonville has the 10th-easiest schedule and will face one of only two road opponents that made the 2022 playoffs—the Bills and the now Tom-Brady-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers—in London. The Jags will play back-to-back games in London (Weeks 4 and 5), and given their experience playing there annually, this could actually provide an advantage.
Prediction: 9-8
Kansas City Chiefs
16 of 32
2022 Record: 14-3
2023 Strength of Schedule: .512
The Kansas City Chiefs have been a model of consistency rarely seen in today's NFL. They've reached three Super Bowls and five AFC title games since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starting quarterback five years ago.
With Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid at the helm, it's hard to imagine Kansas City suddenly falling off this season.
There will be different pieces, of course. Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith are replacing Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie at tackle, while receivers Richie James and second-round pick Rashee Rice are replacing JuJu Smith-Schuster. However, the offense has dealt with turnover before and saw little to no drop-off.
And Kansas City's defense shouldn't see a decline, either, after replacing Frank Clark with Charles Omenihu; Juan Thornhill with Mike Edwards; and adding linebacker Drue Tranquill and rookie pass-rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
Kansas City also has a middle-of-the-road schedule. It'll face the talented AFC East but also the underwhelming NFC North, and five of the eight 2022 playoff teams on the slate will be playing visitor—though one team will be visiting Germany.
If the Chiefs do see a big drop in wins, it will likely be because of injuries.
Prediction: 12-5
Las Vegas Raiders
17 of 32
2022 Record: 6-11
2023 Strength of Schedule: .524
There's little doubt that the Las Vegas Raiders will look different in 2023. However, different doesn't necessarily mean better.
Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Mack Hollins and Rock Ya-Sin are out. Veterans Jimmy Garoppolo, Jakobi Meyers and Marcus Epps are in. Las Vegas had a solid draft, too, landing defensive lineman Tyree Wilson and tight end Michael Mayer.
The Raiders are essentially in the beginning stages of a rebuild after head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler tried to run it back with a 2021 playoff roster last season. It will be fun watching players such as Wilson, Mayer and Byron Young progress, but wins could be elusive.
The Raiders are still in a division with the Chiefs and Chargers and have road games against the Bills, Dolphins and Lions on top of that. Las Vegas will open the 10th-hardest schedule with two straight road games, and for a roster with so many new pieces, that could be problematic.
On top of everything, the Raiders don't know for sure if they'll have star running back Josh Jacobs, who has yet to sign his franchise-tag tender and did not report for voluntary workouts. In-season holdouts are rare, but they do occur.
Prediction: 6-11
Los Angeles Chargers
18 of 32
2022 Record: 10-7
2023 Strength of Schedule: .517
Unlike the Raiders, the Los Angeles Chargers didn't make sweeping offseason changes. They did add offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and use a first-round pick on wideout Quentin Johnston, so an offense that ranked 13th in scoring last year should be a bit better.
The defense could take small strides, too, especially if pass-rusher Joey Bosa can stay healthy and rookies Tuli Tuipulotu and Daiyan Henley adjust quickly. However, the Chargers parted with Drue Tranquill and Kyle Van Noy and lost safety Nasir Adderley to retirement, so this still doesn't feel like a dominant unit.
And Los Angeles didn't do nearly enough to improve a run defense that ranked dead last in yards allowed per attempt (5.4). If teams want to keep Justin Herbert and the offense off the field by leaning on the run, they'll be able to do so.
We'll have to see how the arrival of Moore affects the attack, but it doesn't feel like L.A. is a markedly better team than it was a year ago. Facing a schedule that's slightly easier (.519) than last year's, though, the Chargers should still be a playoff contender.
Prediction: 10-7
Los Angeles Rams
19 of 32
2022 Record: 5-12
2023 Strength of Schedule: .533
In theory, the Los Angeles Rams will be better than they were in 2022 just by having key players Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and Aaron Donald healthy. In reality, though, that may not be enough.
The Rams weren't good before the injuries started piling up. Stafford, who was lost to a concussion and neck injury, struggled even when healthy. He lacked targets behind Kupp and finished with a lowly 87.4 passer rating.
Having pitiful pass protection (59 sacks allowed) didn't help matters, and adding second-round pick Steve Avila won't fix everything along the line. That lack of receiver depth hasn't disappeared either.
The Rams defense could be flat-out bad this season after L.A. traded cornerback Jalen Ramsey, released Leonard Floyd and Bobby Wagner and lost Taylor Rapp, Nick Scott and David Long Jr.
On top of everything, Los Angeles faces the ninth-toughest schedule in the league and has a grueling nine-game road slate that includes six 2022 playoff teams. L.A. could bounce back if its stars stay healthy, but a true transition season is more likely.
Prediction: 5-12
Miami Dolphins
20 of 32
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Strength of Schedule: .554
The Miami Dolphins were one of the NFL's hottest teams in 2023 before a late-season collapse that saw them lose five of their final six. Theoretically, that won't happen with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center in 2023.
Of course, there's no guarantee that Tagovailoa—who suffered multiple concussions last season—will stay healthy. There's also no guarantee that an intact Tua fixes everything.
The Dolphins largely feasted on mediocre teams early—though the wins over Baltimore and Buffalo were impressive—and faced tougher opponents during the final stretch. Teams seemed to catch up to Mike McDaniel's offense, and that could bleed into the coming season.
However, adding Jalen Ramsey and Cam Smith to the secondary should help improve a defense that generated only 14 turnovers and had the 10th-highest rate of red-zone touchdowns allowed (59.3 percent) last season.
Adding speedy rookie runner Devon Achane to the offense could help take some pressure off Tagovailoa, but a lot rides on the quarterback's ability to stay on the field and the defense's ability to show improvement. Miami could be better in 2023, but the league's second-hardest schedule could keep it out of the postseason.
Prediction: 9-8
Minnesota Vikings
21 of 32
2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Strength of Schedule: .497
We can't exactly call it luck, but the Minnesota Vikings were fortunate to win 13 games despite having a negative point differential in 2022. If Minnesota is to get back to the postseason, it's going to have to get some similar fortune.
New defensive coordinator Brian Flores should make some schematic improvements to a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed and 28th in points allowed last season. However, the unit lacked talent last year and lost Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Duke Shelley and Eric Kendricks this offseason.
Adding Marcus Davenport, Byron Murphy Jr., Mekhi Blackmon and Jay Ward won't be enough to suddenly give Minnesota a top-tier defense.
The Vikings also parted with longtime receiver Adam Thielen, and while they drafted Jordan Addison in the first round, there could be an offensive adjustment period.
Minnesota doesn't face an overly daunting schedule but will face the talented AFC West. The Lions and Bears will be better this season, and the Packers will still be a threat, even with a new quarterback.
A daunting final month—at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers and at Lions—could make or break Minnesota's playoff chances.
Prediction: 9-8
New England Patriots
22 of 32
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Strength of Schedule: .549
The New England Patriots were plagued by two issues last season: Their offense lacked cohesion, and they didn't have quite enough playmakers around second-year quarterback Mac Jones.
According to new wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster—who replaces Jakobi Meyers as WR1—New England now has the offensive talent it needs.
"Most definitely, most definitely. We definitely have enough," Smith-Schuster told reporters.
With Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki and James Robinson joining the offense, the unit should be better. The players should also be on the same page after struggling through a campaign with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge orchestrating the attack.
When last in New England, offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien coached an offense that ranked second in yards and third in scoring in 2011. He should help Jones get back to Pro Bowl form and allow the offense to look more like it did in 2021 (sixth in scoring).
Meanwhile, a defense that ranked eighth in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed last season should be just as potent—perhaps more so with rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez on the roster.
The question is whether New England can overcome a loaded AFC East and the league's third-toughest schedule (tied)—one that features a game in Germany and a season-opener against the defending NFC champion Eagles.
The Patriots should be better this year, but they'll struggle to reach double-digit wins.
Prediction: 9-8
New Orleans Saints
23 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .427
With the addition of Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr, the New Orleans Saints are probably the top team in the lowly NFC South. However, it shouldn't come as a surprise if the new-look Falcons or even the Bryce Young-led Panthers win the division.
Carr should be an upgrade over Andy Dalton, though perhaps not a major one. Carr threw six more touchdowns than Dalton last season but had a lower passer rating (86.3 versus 95.2) and had five more interceptions in one more game.
Additionally, star running back Alvin Kamara could receive a suspension from the league under its personal conduct policy after he allegedly participated in beating up a man in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl weekend in Feb. 2022. He was indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm, and pleaded not guilty to all charges. The trial is slated for July 31.
New Orleans did a good job of reloading a defense that ranked in the top 10 of both points and yards allowed last season. Players such as Khalen Saunders, Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey were added to replace Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss.
As long as Carr doesn't fall flat in his new home, the Saints can lean on their defense to win games. New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule in the league and will have a legitimate shot at posting a winning record.
Prediction: 9-8
New York Giants
24 of 32
2022 Record: 9-7-1
2023 Strength of Schedule: .549
The New York Giants were one of the NFL's biggest surprises in 2022, unifying under new head coach Brian Daboll and stunning the league with a playoff berth and a wild-card victory.
New York must be taken seriously, but getting back to the playoffs won't be easy.
The Giants did a nice job of upgrading their receiving corps, bringing in Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder, Darren Waller and rookie Jalin Hyatt. The question is whether quarterback Daniel Jones will follow his only good pro season with another efficient campaign.
Another offensive unknown is whether star running back Saquon Barkley can stay healthy for a second consecutive season. His history suggests otherwise.
The Giants didn't do much to improve their defense, aside from using a first-round pick on cornerback Deonte Banks. They did very little to address a run defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed per carry (5.2). Bobby Okereke and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are decent additions, but they're not shutting down opposing ball-carriers by themselves.
Daboll did a tremendous job of getting the Giants to overachieve last season. With the league's third-toughest schedule (tied) awaiting and seven away games in the first 11 weeks, New York should see some regression.
Prediction: 8-9
New York Jets
25 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .545
With future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center, the New York Jets are sure to be Super Bowl contenders, right? Well, maybe.
A defense that ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed last season will again be dominant, and Rodgers can't be any worse than Zach Wilson was in 2022 (72.8 passer rating). However, there's no guarantee that he'll be drastically better.
Rodgers was just OK with the Packers last year, finishing with a 91.1 passer rating. He'll have familiar faces in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and receivers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, but he's still joining a brand-new team and playing with a mostly unfamiliar roster.
And, once again, Rodgers only seems somewhat committed to working in the offseason.
The 39-year-old recently told the Pat McAfee Show that he'll be at "more than half" of the Jets' offseason workouts (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk).
The Jets will be playoff contenders, but it's hard to envision them vying for the AFC's top seed. There will be a war of attrition in the AFC East, and New York faces the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL. Getting to the postseason and earning a victory should be seen as a win this season.
Fans will get plenty of opportunities to see the new-look Jets, who will have six nationally televised games this season.
Prediction: 10-7
Philadelphia Eagles
26 of 32
2022 Record: 14-3
2023 Strength of Schedule: .566
If such an award existed, Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman would win Offseason Executive of the Year.
The Eagles have done a tremendous job of navigating roster turnover and perhaps even improving. They lost key contributors Miles Sanders, Javon Hargrave, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, T.J. Edwards, Isaac Seumalo, Kyzir White and Marcus Epps. They also retained James Bradberry, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox and Boston Scott.
Veterans Rashaad Penny, Greedy Williams, Terrell Edmunds and Nicholas Morrow are fine replacement players, and Roseman absolutely nailed the draft. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Tyler Steen, Kelee Ringo and Sydney Brown all have the potential to be long-term building blocks.
A defense that notched 70 sacks and ranked second in yards allowed and eighth in points allowed last season will again be spectacular. Philly still boasts quarterback Jalen Hurts and weapons like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert on offense too.
However, while Philly may not be less talented than it was a year ago, some regression should be expected. The Eagles face the league's hardest schedule plus the threat of the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.
Fewer wins than in 2022 wouldn't come as a shock, though Philadelphia is very much a title contender.
Prediction: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
27 of 32
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Strength of Schedule: .470
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be better and might even make the playoffs in 2023.
Pittsburgh achieved a 9-8 record last year despite having a rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett, a new defensive coordinator in Teryl Austin and star pass-rusher T.J. Watt sidelined for seven games with a torn pectoral.
Both Pickett—who got a new receiver in Allen Robinson II—and the defense should show growth this year, and Watt will presumably be healthy. The Steelers also added Patrick Peterson, Isaac Seumalo, Elandon Roberts and Nate Herbig to improve their defense and offensive line.
General manager Omar Khan then went out and landed offensive tackle Broderick Jones, cornerback Joey Porter Jr., tight end Darnell Washington and defensive tackle Keeanu Benton in the draft.
Development alone should get the Steelers to double-digit wins, and they'll benefit from a more complete roster and the league's eighth-easiest schedule. The only cause for concern is that Pittsburgh resides in one of the most talented divisions in football. The Steelers can't afford to go .500 in the AFC North again and expect to win it.
Prediction: 10-7
San Francisco 49ers
28 of 32
2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Strength of Schedule: .514
The San Francisco 49ers came incredibly close to making a Super Bowl appearance last season. If they hadn't lost quarterback Brock Purdy—and then backup Josh Johnson—against the Eagles in the NFC title game, they might have.
"We lost because we played with 10 people," wideout Deebo Samuel said, per Zion Olojede of Complex.
Assuming Purdy can fully recover from offseason surgery and beat out 2021 third overall pick Trey Lance—or if Lance proves to be a better quarterback—San Francisco will have the most complete roster in the NFL.
The 49ers' top-ranked defense, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, largely returns intact. Samson Ebukam and Jimmie Ward departed, but San Francisco added Javon Hargrave, Isaiah Oliver, Clelin Ferrell and rookie Ji'Ayir Brown.
The offense will be mostly the same, too, though losing right tackle Mike McGlinchey was noteworthy. Even with him gone, there are no glaring weaknesses on this roster.
The 49ers do have a new defensive coordinator in Steve Wilks, but veteran head coach Kyle Shanahan has masterfully navigated coordinator changes in the past. The status quo should be expected on that side of the ball.
While San Francisco has a few daunting opponents on its schedule—like the Steelers and the Eagles on the road—its overall slate is only the 15th-hardest in the league. For a team that won 13 games a year ago, that's pretty favorable.
Don't be shocked if the 49ers are back in the NFC title game for the fourth time in five years.
Prediction: 12-5
Seattle Seahawks
29 of 32
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Strength of Schedule: .517
The Seattle Seahawks did great work this offseason, starting with securing quarterback Geno Smith on a three-year extension.
Seattle then upgraded its 25th-ranked defense by adding Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush, Julian Love, Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed and first-round cornerback Devon Witherspoon. While that might not be enough to give the Seahawks a dominant defense, the unit should be far more capable than it was a year ago.
The Seahawks also added rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and rookie running back Zach Charbonnet to a potent, ninth-ranked scoring offense.
Can Smith replicate the unexpected Pro Bowl campaign he had in 2022? If so, Seattle will be a more complete team than it was last season and should again be a playoff contender.
Whether it all translates to an improved record is another story. Seattle faces the same strength of schedule it did a year ago and has a vicious nine-game road slate ahead of it. The Seahawks will face the Cowboys, Giants, Bengals, Ravens and Lions in addition to its NFC West contests.
Prediction: 9-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30 of 32
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Strength of Schedule: .483
With Tom Brady retired and Leonard Fournette, Donovan Smith, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Ryan Succop out, there's no doubting that the Buccaneers will regress in 2023.
However, Tampa might not be a complete pushover either. The Bucs added some quality players in Greg Gaines, Chase Edmonds, Ryan Neal and rookies Calijah Kancey, Cody Mauch, and YaYa Diaby.
Standouts such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tristan Wirfs, Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David and Carlton Davis are still around too.
The big unknown is whether the Bucs can get an above-average quarterback from its competition between Kyle Trask and 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield. Former head coach and special adviser Bruce Arians believes that Mayfield has more potential than any of the top 2023 rookie quarterbacks—Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
"I can honestly say out of these four, I had Baker rated higher. That's an honest opinion—coming out of Oklahoma," Arians told reporters at his Arians Family Foundation gala (h/t Pewter Report).
Tampa hasn't completely torn down its roster, and it has the league's 11th-easiest schedule. This probably isn't a playoff team, but if the Bucs can find a quarterback, they might not be the laughingstocks that many expect to see.
Prediction: 7-10
Tennessee Titans
31 of 32
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Strength of Schedule: .448
The Tennessee Titans have the fifth-easiest schedule in the league this season. Despite this, they could still be in for a disappointing year.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is back for one last run, and the Titans still have Derrick Henry in the backfield. However, the offense isn't balanced, and there's no telling if Henry can stay healthy and productive after leading the league in carries in three of the past four seasons.
Defensively, the Titans are a mixed bag. They ranked first in run defense last season but were putrid against the pass—dead last in passing yards allowed and 27th in yards surrendered per attempt (6.6). Tennessee signed cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency but ignored its defense during the draft.
Standout safety Kevin Byard was also asked to take a pay cut and has not attended voluntary workouts this offseason, according to Nick Suss of The Tennessean.
The rest of the AFC South has gotten better, and it feels like the Titans have not. At some point, they'll likely look to give Will Levis a shot at quarterback, and a slow start to the season could leave Henry—who will be a free agent in 2024—on the trade market.
Even with an easy schedule, the Titans could see their season quickly spiral.
Prediction: 6-11
Washington Commanders
32 of 32
2022 Record: 8-8-1
2023 Strength of Schedule: .535
Anyone quick to dismiss the Washington Commanders should exercise caution in doing so. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell remains largely unproven, but Washington added an elite insurance policy in Jacoby Brissett.
The Commanders still have tremendous offensive skill players in Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson and Curtis Samuel. They also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Led by a standout like Daron Payne, Washington ranked third in yards allowed, seventh in points allowed, eighth in defensive red-zone touchdown rate (51.9 percent) and first in defensive third-down conversion rate (31.9 percent) last season. The team should also have a healthier Chase Young.
With promising rookies Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin joining the secondary, the Commanders defense could be truly elite this season. The defense only had 18 takeaways last year, but Martin and Forbes can help that number rise.
Any shot at the playoffs will boil down to how Howell fares and how Washington navigates the league's eighth-toughest schedule and a spot in the loaded NFC East. Realistically, the Commanders probably aren't a postseason team, but they shouldn't be considered an easy win by any of their 2023 opponents.
Prediction: 8-9
Statistics via Pro Football Reference. Strength of schedule for 2023 via NFL Research.
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