Power Ranking Every Last-Place Team's Playoff Chances in 2026

The NFL is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there's a loser. For every team that navigates the season and wins their division, there's a team that pitches and lurches their way to a last-place finish.

For some, it's a one-off—a fluke year from a team beset by injuries or just a stretch of bad luck. For others, coming in last is essentially a way of life—they have spent so much time in the basement that there's now a team-colored futon and beaded curtain down there.

But just because a team finished last the year before doesn't doom the franchise in the campaign to come. Last year, three of the 14 teams that made the postseason were last-place clubs in 2024. The Chicago Bears went from the outhouse to the penthouse in the  NFC North. The San Francisco 49ers got back to the playoffs after a 6-11 finish the season before. And the New England Patriots went all the way from 3-14 in 2024 to Super Bowl LX.

Of course, not every team has an even chance of repeating that feat in 2026. For some of last year's cellar-dwellers, the postseason is a pipe dream. For at least one, anything less would be a disappointment.

Let's figure out which is which, by ranking last season's last-place teams from the least likely to most likely to make a drastic turnaround for the better this year.

8. New York Jets

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

Jets RB Breece Hall

The 2025 season was a miserable one for the New York Jets. The team was the last in the league to win a game, starting the season 0-7. Things didn't get much better after that Week 8 win over the Cincinnati Bengals—after knocking off the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, the Jets won just one more game the rest of the way to finish 3-14.

Aaron Glenn will be back for a second season as head coach, but there's a new quarterback in the Big Apple in Geno Smith. Smith was abysmal last year with the Las Vegas Raiders, but while speaking to reporters Glenn made a bold claim about the team's new signal-caller.

"I just feel like he's the guy that's going to lead us to the promised land," Glenn said. "Listen, I know he had his struggles. I think a lot of quarterbacks, they have their struggles. I think he's going to create some damage because of the arm talent. And, man, he's grown so much as far as his smarts, as far as IDs, as far as protection and things like that."

Unless "The Promised Land" is a five-win season, it's fair to wonder if Glenn hit his head on the way to that presser. Sure, the team has some players in the likes of running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and the Jets made three picks in the first round of this year's draft. But the Jets were 29th in the league in points scored and 31st in the NFL in points allowed last year.

This team isn't sniffing the postseason in 2026.

7. Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Cardinals EDGE Josh Sweat

After 15 wins over three seasons (including a 3-14 2025 campaign), the Arizona Cardinals hit the reset button in the offseason. Head coach Jonathan Gannon was fired. Quarterback Kyler Murray was released.

The team went the offensive route with their new head coach, hiring former Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. While talking to reporters, veteran wideout Michael Wilson said he likes what he has seen from LaFleur's scheme so far.

"He's a phenomenal coach, great offensive mind. One thing I like about him is I'm excited every day to come to work because he makes learning exciting. He makes the experience fun," Wilson said. "He's obviously a details guy, but he's not an over-details guy, which is great because he understands football is sort of like controlled chaos and a lot of an uncontrolled environment."

The Cardinals have some weapons for LaFleur to work with on offense in Wilson, tight end Trey McBride and rookie running back Jeremiyah Love. But ostensible starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett wants a pay raise and has yet to join the team. Neither has veteran edge-rusher Josh Sweat, who has been the subject of trade speculation.

Oh, and the Redbirds play in an NFC West that boasts three playoff teams from a year ago and the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Assuming Brissett shows up at some point, the Cardinals should score some points in 2026. But the Cardinals were 27th in the league in total defense last year and the offensive line was among the NFL's worst in 2025.

If Arizona finishes anywhere but last place in the NFC West in 2026, it will be an upset.

6. Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Browns EDGE Myles Garrett

The Cleveland Browns boast something that many of the teams listed in this piece don't have—an elite unit. Anchored by 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, the Browns defense was fourth in yards per game allowed a year ago.

But the offense was atrocious in 2025—30th in yards per game and 31st in points per contest. New head coach Todd Monken was brought in to help turn that unit around, and veteran wideout Jerry Jeudy told reporters that he's excited about playing in Monken's scheme this year.

"Everything is different about this offense, the play-calling, the concepts," Jeudy said. "With this offense they a great job of getting to the best plays. So being able to give the quarterback the ability to change the plays to get in the best formation against certain defenses and certain looks, that's just gonna help us."

An offensive line that was rebuilt in the offseason should be better in 2026. But the skill positions are a mess. Jeudy was terrible a year ago. Running back Quinshon Judkins is returning from a serious injury. The team is counting on major contributions from a pair of rookie receivers in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. And the starting quarterback will either be a second-year player who struggled mightily as a rookie in Shedeur Sanders or a veteran in Deshaun Watson who hasn't been good in forever.

Oh, and rumors continue to swirl that Garrett could be traded.

At season's end, the Browns will be in a familiar position—the AFC North basement.

5. Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Raiders TE Brock Bowers

The 2025 season was an unmitigated disaster for the Las Vegas Raiders. With veteran head coach Pete Carroll in town and Geno Smith under center, the Raiders were supposed to vie for a playoff spot. Instead, the team won just three games, earned the first overall pick in the 2026 draft and both Carroll and Smith were sent packing.

Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was hired to replace Carroll, and while addressing the media Kubiak said both that the team is off to a good start in OTAs and still has a long ways to go.

"We're off to a solid start," he said. "Everyone's undefeated right now, right? But we know sooner or later that it's going to get real competitive and we've got to find out who's the guys we can count on in those stressful situations, coaches included. We're always very critical of ourselves with how can we get the most out of every hour for these players in a positive way and let them know that we are not wasting their time."

The Raiders were one of the league's most aggressive teams in free agency, and as a result the team should be improved both on defense and along the offensive line. There are young weapons on offense in tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty.

But the wideout position and defensive backfield remain major question marks, and at some point in 2026 the Raiders will be starting a rookie quarterback in Fernando Mendoza.

Will Vegas be a better team this season? Yes.

Will the changes they made be enough to get them out of the AFC West cellar? Probably not.

4. Tennessee Titans

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Titans QB Cam Ward

It has been a rough four-year stretch for the Tennessee Titans. The team has dropped at least 10 games in each of the last four seasons, including back-to-back 3-14 campaigns in 2024 and 2025.

After a 1-5 start last year, Bill Callahan got the gate, with long-time defensive coordinator and former New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh getting the nod as his replacement. Saleh brought in another former head coach to run his offense in Brian Daboll, and Daboll's edict in 2026 is clear—get a better second season out of 2025 No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward.

It doesn't hurt Ward's chances that the team added passing-game weapons in veteran wideout Wan'Dale Robinson and rookie Carnell Tate. While speaking to the media, ward said he expects Tate to make an early dent in the NFL.

"He'll have an explosive year just because he'll get a lot of one-on-one matchups," Ward said. "That's what we want. We want guys to come down and play, man, because we think we can beat him. I think this is one of the best offenses he could be in just because he's going to get coached, but he's not going to get overcoached, and he's going to still be able to play football how he sees it."

With better weapons, Ward should be able to improve on an uneven rookie season. The offensive line features two new veteran starters. The Titans were aggressive on the edge and in the defensive backfield in free agency, and Tennessee could have a new "green dot" linebacker this year in rookie Anthony Hill.

That probably isn't getting the Titans past the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South. But at least the Titans appear to finally have some positive momentum.

3. New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Saints QB Tyler Shough

And here we are—the point in this column where we have reached a team that might actually have a shot at the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints are heading into their second season with Kellen Moore as the team's head coach and Tyler Shough as the starting quarterback. While talking to reporters, veteran running back Alvin Kamara said that he's been impressed with how Shough has attacked the second year of his professional career.

"I mean, he's mature. He got some swag to him," Kamara said. "There's this lightheartedness about his game and his approach that like, 'He works his ass off, but he also doesn't take himself too serious.' I think he deals with it well. If there's some criticism, he don't shy away from it, but he don't let it pierce his heart. And if there's some praise, he takes it and keeps moving."

Of course, Kamara may not even be around come Week 1—the Saints' biggest offseason acquisition in free agency was running back Travis Etienne Jr. The team used its first pick in April's draft on a compliment to Chris Olave at wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson. There will be new faces in important places on defense as well—a pair of long-time stalwarts are gone in linebacker Demario Davis and edge-rusher Cameron Jordan.

The biggest thing working in New Orleans' favor this year is the division in which they play. The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South with just eight wins last season, and there isn't a team in the division that doesn't face significant questions heading into the summer.

2. New York Giants

AP Photo/Vera Nieuwenhuis

Giants WR Malik Nabers

Some may question this placement. After all, the New York Giants won just four games last year. The team has one postseason appearance over the past decade, and the G-Men haven't won the NFC East since their last Super Bowl run in 2011.

The Giants are another of the last-place teams from a year ago who replaced their head coach. But the G-Men got the most experienced one of the lot, hiring John Harbaugh soon after he was let go by the Baltimore Ravens.

While talking with reporters, Harbaugh made it clear that the Giants aren't about a slow and steady rebuild—he wants Big Blue in the mix for a playoff spot in 2026.

"I think the Giants roster is strong and it's our job to make it stronger," Harbaugh said. "We are going to compete for the playoffs and for championships. I expect and want to make the playoffs next year."

There's reason to think that could be more than just coachspeak. If running back cam Skattebo and wide receiver Malik Nabers are healthy, then combined with second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart they give New York a solid young trio on offense. An already stout offensive line in New York added a likely Day 1 starter at guard in Francis Mauigoa. Edge-rushers Brian Burns and Abdul Carter and linebackers Arvell Reese and Tremaine Edmunds give the Giants (potentially) one of the better defensive front-sevens in the league.

The Dallas Cowboys were awful defensively last year. The Washington Commanders won just one more game than the Giants in 2025. The Philadelphia Eagles have owned the division in recent years, but they are far from invincible.

There isn't a better candidate to pull a Patriots-esque massive turnaround in 2026 than the Giants.

For reals.

1. Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Lions QB Jared Goff

Welcome to this week's edition of "Duh" Theater, starring Captain Obvious.

Two years ago, the Lions had the most successful regular-season in franchise history, winning 15 games and capturing the NFC's No. 1 seed. At the bye week last year, Detroit was 5-2 and appeared headed toward another playoff run. But Detroit was just 4-6 after the off week, including three losses in the last four games. The Lions finished 9-8, but missed the postseason and wound up last in the NFC North.

That disappointing season led to change on the coaching staff, with Drew Petzing replacing John Morton. During a media availability, head coach Dan Campbell lauded Petzing's experience and versatility.

"When you listen to him and you sit down with him and you listen to him talk," Campbell said, "he understands quarterback play, he understands tight ends, he understands O-line, he understands receivers because he's coached all of those. So, he can coach it from the ground up."

Petzing inherits a loaded offense—Jared Goff finished last season second in the league in passing yards, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown are among the NFL's best at their positions. The offensive line was shuffled somewhat in the offseason but could be among the best in the game. The defense has bona fide stars at all three levels in edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell and safety Brian Branch.

This is absolutely a playoff-caliber roster. As a matter of fact, the Lions are the favorites to capture the NFC North this year at DraftKings.