NFC East Champs, No. 4 Seed
This is a pick by default. The New York Giants have played decent football, but have the most brutal schedule in the entire NFL facing them in the second half of the season. For a team making a habit out of late-season collapses, that does not inspire confidence.
The Philadelphia Eagles have one win in five weeks. They are not dead yet, but they still have a lot to prove after their win over the Washington Redskins. Speaking of your 2011 NFC Champs (at least if you listen to Tim Hightower), the Redskins are going through a midseason quarterback switch—almost never a good thing.
So, that leaves us with the Dallas Cowboys. On the one hand, Dallas is 11 points from being 5-0. On the other, they are five points form being 0-5. They have more stability than the Redskins, have played better than the Eagles and have a much easier schedule than the Giants. They have to win the gimmes (St. Louis, Miami, Arizona) and will have to play well in the division. I like the Cowboys defense and more good days than bad from Tony Romo to give them the NFC East crown.