Tampa Bay Bucs vs. San Francisco 49ers: Who Is Favored?

One of the games to watch this Sunday will be when the San Francisco 49ers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Both teams sport a 3-1 record, and the winner will jump ahead in reputation and in the standings in their division.

The fifth game of the season often indicates how well a team is developing toward the postseason.  By the end of the fourth game, enough statistical evidence is available to make some critical comparisons and a few predictions based recent past performance.

In the next few slides, we’ll look at some of these statistics and compare the two teams so you can decide for yourself how the game should go. 

Total Yards

The San Francisco 49ers have amassed fewer yards, 1,083 in the first four games, than most other NFL teams, and yet they have won three of four games, and the one they lost was in overtime.  Their yards were a mix of 373 yards passing and 710 yards rushing. 

In the meantime, the Buccaneers have amassed 1,411 yards of offense, over 30 percent more than the 49ers. They have done this with a mix of 943 yards passing and 468 yards rushing.

The disparity in passing yards is hugely in favor of the Bucs, while the difference in rushing yards is in favor of the 49ers.  The combination of Gore and Hunter has worked well for the 49ers.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers rush for more yards per carry, 4.4 vs. the 49ers meager 3.5 yards per carry.

Advantage:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Third Down Conversions

Third-down conversions measure a team's ability to make crucial yards when the pressure is really on. The defense will bring everything to stop the first down, and the quarterback will be judged by his effectiveness on third down.

The Buccaneers have converted 25-of-57 third-down opportunities into first downs for a percentage of just under 44 percent.

The 49ers have converted 19-of-55, for a percentage of 34.5.

Advantage: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Entire teams are often judged by their leader at quarterback and his ability to throw the ball.  NFL football, once the province of bruising running backs, has evolved into a sophisticated game that demands a mixture of rushing and passing to win games.

The 49ers have passed 148 times and connected 98 times, for a completion percentage of 66.2% and an average of 7.4 yards per pass.

The Buccaneers have passed 107 times and completed 72 of those, for a percentage of 67.2% and an average of 6.6 per pass.

The 49ers do have one significant advantage:  Alex Smith is second only to Tom Brady in efficiency during blitzes, recording an amazing 132 rating during those plays this season.

For other reasons we’ll discuss later, the 49ers enjoy a slight edge here.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers.

Rushing

The team with the most effective rushing game can control the tempo of a game, keep a time of possession advantage and defeat the disaster of blitzing sacks for losses of yards and downs.

The Buccaneers have a running back, LeGarrette Blount, who has garnered attention because of his record of over 100-yard games. His 4.4 yards per carry is enough to make third down conversions by rushing a distinct possibility.  

Blount is backed up with two other rushers, Earnest Graham, with a 4.2 yard average and the quarterback, Josh Freeman, with a 4.5 yard average.  Together they have amassed 468 yards in four games, for a game average of 117 yards.

Frank Gore, 275 yards at 3.7 yards per carry heads up the 49ers rushing corps, with Kendall Hunter, 68 yards at 3.4 yards per carry ably providing a change of pace for defenses to deal with.  Alex Smith, the quarterback, has 11 rushes for a 3.8 yard average.  The 49ers have averaged 93 yards per game.

Advantage:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Special Teams

Special Teams are one of the intangibles that determines a team's success.  Some games this season have been won by kickers putting field goals together in games where their team made no touchdowns.

Runbacks for touchdowns during kickoffs were supposed to be eliminated by a new NFL rule that placed the kickoff spot up at the 35 yard line, to help reduce injuries during kickoffs.  It has not worked out as planned.  More runbacks for touchdowns have occurred during the first four games of the season than ever before.

The NFL is the victim of the unintended consequences of their decision.  Moving the kickoff spot allowed the receiving team to better block the kickoff team’s players, resulting in more breakouts and long runbacks.

The 49ers helped this statistic when Ted Ginn took off and scored twice in 59 seconds, running a kickoff and a punt back for touchdowns.

That said, the fate of teams still often hangs on the punting team and the kickoff team, as well as the defenders for both.

The Buccaneers have hit 7 of 8 field goals and have an average of 87.5%.

The 49ers have hit 8 of 10 for an average of 80%.

Buccaneer punters have an average of 46.6 yards.

49er punters have an average of 52.2 yards.

The intangibles, like defending kickoff and punting yards, etc., fall in the 49ers favor.

Slight Advantage:  San Francisco 49ers.

Defense Comparison

All of the offense in the world can be stifled by a solid defense.  Teams with the best defense usually have the best records.

The San Francisco 49er passing defense is suspect but improving, allowing 1,136 yards in four games, for an average of 284 yards per game.

The Buccaneers passing defense limited passing yards to 1,068 yards per game, for an average of 267 yards per game.

Slight advantage:  Buccaneers.

The 49er run defense limited offenses to 296 yards in 4 games for an average of 74 yards per game.

The Buccaneers have limited opposing teams to 404 yards rushing in 4 games for an average of 101 yards per game.

The 49ers enjoy a defense that limits the run and can blunt Blount's rushes.

Slight Advantage:  49ers.

Red Zone Defense:

The Buccaneers red zone defense is rated 30th in the league, based on opponents trips to the red zone that result in points.

The 49ers red zone defense is rated as tied for first place in the league.  During the last game, the Eagles were in the red zone seven times and only scored twice.  (T. Murph brought that to my attention.)

Advantage:  49ers. 

Intangibles

Home field advantage can be huge in some arenas.

It has not been a major factor for the San Francisco 49ers.  Candlestick park is not the loudest place for an opposing team to play.  It is, however, an unpredictably windy place that kickers and even some quarterbacks can find daunting.

Slight Advantage:  49ers.

Momentum

A teams’ historical arc can be charted without statistics.  It is the way players walk and talk, the way they act under pressure, the way they hold together and, as we used to say in the fighter pilot game, how they can “maintain an even strain.”  Coaches call this ‘poise,' an indefinable quality that is judgmental and personal at best.

It can be seen in a regular and steady improvement of play on the field.  It can be seen if the players appear to be having fun.  It can be seen when unexpected players make stupendous plays, like Justin Smith’s stripping of the ball from a man half his size and twice as fast.

It can be seen if the team appears to be playing with the same quality week to week or if that quality is improving.

The San Francisco 49ers appear to have this momentum going for them, especially in the last half of the fourth game against the Philadelphia Eagles.  The 49ers have been improving each week this season, and the Buccaneers have not shown as much improvement. (Thanks to Brian Gilbert.)

And, it must be noted, they will have California girls cheering for them with the Gold Rush.  Life could not be better.

Advantage:  49ers

So, Who Wins?

Given one statistic that sticks out—Alex Smith’s quarterback rating of 132 during blitzes, it is possible to lean a bit toward the 49ers.

Both teams throw the ball about evenly.

Both teams have a solid running game, with an advantage to the Buccaneers.

But defenses count, and the 49ers do limit the running game a bit better that the Buccaneers. Coupled with the fact that they are more efficient in the red zone at stopping opponents from getting points means they probably will limit the Buccaneers touchdowns.

So, who wins?

The statistics and the intangibles, including home-field advantage and the intangible of momentum, lean toward the 49ers.

Game Advantage:  49ers.

And the score?

Not a chance.  That is left as much to luck, bounce of the ball and the whirling winds of Candlestick Park as it is to skill and team cohesion.

Tell you what:  You have the statistics.  You pick the score.