Chicago Bears 2011: 5 Keys to Making the Playoffs and Surviving the NFC North

It’s early, but the Chicago Bears are at a turning point. They’ve played three tough opponents and have just one victory. They must get back to winning if they’re going to land a wild card spot or defend their division title. Fortunately, they have plenty of reasons to think they can do just that.

Like any team with postseason aspirations they'll need strong performances up and down the roster, from rookies and veterans alike. But, it's not a pipe dream for last year's NFC North Champs.

Here are the five keys to making the playoffs for Chicago in 2011.

No. 1: Special Teams Must Stay Ridiculously Good (and Penalty Free)

The NFL moved a step closer to rendering special teams irrelevant by moving up kickoffs. But the league is still a step behind the Bears.

With Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and Robbie Gould, Chicago boasts some of the most talented special teams players in the league. And it’s their coach, an Einstein of return formulas, who makes them so dangerous.

Special teams coordinator Dave Toub won’t let anyone call him a “genius” but I dare you to name a better special teams coach in the NFL and you get a bonus if you can name any other special teams coach. Can you point to a more well-designed return than the fake-out against Green Bay in Week 3? Or find another franchise with seven Pro Bowl selections for special teamers since 2007? (Hint: you can’t.)

Yes, the new kickoff rule hurts the Bears more than most teams. But cold weather should bring fewer touchbacks and more returns. And no matter what, Hester will still get his chances.

In fact, Hester already has half as many kick returns this year with six, as he did all last season with 12. He’s getting more looks in part because there are fewer kicks returned per game and also because, thus far, Chicago has not forced as many punts. The team is actively finding him additional opportunities.

And that means it will take more than a rule change to stop Hester from being a threat—ask the Packers he fooled last week. In the end, special teams play is still a nightmare for teams facing Chicago. Praying for penalties seems to be the only strategy that slows down the Bears.

Good luck, NFL. You’ll need it.

No. 2: Matt Forte Must Play at Max Volume

For three years he’s been overlooked and underpaid. But, Matt Forte is emerging as one of the top all-purpose backs in the league during an age of specialty rushers. He does everything well; running with speed and power, catching and blocking. And in a contract year, expect his best.

In the first three games, and despite Chicago ditching the rushing attack twice, Forte has 35 rushes, 22 receptions, 406 yards and a TD. At that rate he’d end up with 2,165 yards from scrimmage.

Those numbers will pay handsomely. Jerry Angelo and the McCaskey family should be worried.

Even if he doesn’t keep up that pace (and for the record, he can) it will be hard for him to touch the ball 57 more times and get just a single TD. Expect more scoring celebrations involving the Bears only go-to-guy, especially if Chicago finds a rush/pass balance moving forward. Forte should see increased touches and the offensive line can’t get worse without a collective outbreak of cholera.

There's no road to the playoffs that doesn't include getting the ball to this guy as much as possible.

No. 3: Strength of Schedule--the Hard Part Is Done

The Bears started the season with the 9th easiest schedule in the league based on opponent’s winning percentage. And while their record is 1-2, they’ve faced three of the top teams in the league and arguably the top two. All three Bears opponents were in the NFC Championship game or won the Super Bowl in the last two years. That’s tough.

The rest of the schedule is not nearly so hard, with six winnable games against Carolina, Minnesota (twice), Denver, Kansas City and Seattle. A split against Detroit and three victories against the rest, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, San Diego, Oakland and Green Bay, would give them 11 wins on the season, which is the same as last year.

Beating the Vikings, Lions and Packers remains critical and division games are likely to be the deciding factor. It’s easy to envision the 3rd place NFC North team just missing the playoffs with 9 or 10 wins.

No. 4: Jay Cutler and the Offense

I agree: this could also appear on a list called “The Five Keys to Missing the Playoffs By A Wide Margin.”

Not all of the pressure falls on Cutler’s shoulders though. Fact is, the pressure has come from every angle in the pocket and delivered hits to his head, legs, ribs and arms, along with a friendly kick in the throat. But that's life for an NFL quarterback.

He still needs to deliver no matter what kind of protection he gets from the offensive line. Mike Martz can call the play but it's up to Cutler to make a decision and throw the ball.

Unfortunately, other than Forte, Cutler seems to be the only one on the field who knows what he's supposed to do. And after three weeks opposing defenses should look befuddled and confused, not the Bears offense.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. In the second year of Martz’ system receivers should be comfortable with routes, offensive linemen should know the protections, and snap miscounts, false starts, and delays ought to be occasional occurrences.

But other than a few solid drives against Atlanta, and a handful of plays against New Orleans and Green Bay, the offense has been a wheezing heart attack waiting to happen.

That’s ok.

Even at their current pace, this offense will have a hard time duplicating last year’s kind of terrible.

2010 Totals (NFL Rank)

Passing YPG: 188.4 (28)
Rushing YPG: 101 (22)
Total YPG: 289 (30 and just ahead of Arizona and Carolina, who played without QBs)
3^rd Down Conversion %: 32.8 (27)
PPG: 20.9 (21)

Despite that production, the 2010 Bears somehow won 11 games. Consider, if the offense had shown up against Washington or Seattle last year—both losses were by a field goal—and the Bears could have finished 13-3. I know, I know, it’s hard to believe. But it's true.

So what does that mean? Essentially, these numbers are a testament to how great the defense and special teams were last year. They were Super Bowl caliber.

Can the offense catch up? Here’s how they look after facing three top teams this season:

Current 2011 Totals (NFL Rank)

Passing YPG: 286 (11)
Rushing YPG: 53.7 (31)
Total YPG: 304.7 (22)
3^rd down conversion %: 27.5 (28)
PPG: 20.0 (T-17)

Translation: still reliant on the defense.

That said, if Cutler’s crew can muster enough offense to get first downs, protect the ball and eat the clock, this team will thrive. And that’s why they’re a key to overall team success.

They don’t need to be good, just not so bad.

If they don’t improve look for Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher to play both ways next season and Martz to be given a train ticket to Get Lost, USA.

No. 5: Defense. Defense. Defense.

In Chicago it always comes back to defense. And over the years, like Jordan with the Bulls, greatness has become the norm.

This year’s squad is no exception. Any team boasting Peppers, Urlacher, and Lance Briggs has that potential.

It’s true, the trio might be past their physical prime but they still play at the highest levels for their positions. And this year’s supporting cast is strong on the defensive line and strong enough in the secondary, like the 2006-2007 Super Bowl team. Considering starters and backups collectively, this team might be even more talented (if more injury-prone, too).

It’s no secret every team in the NFL knows what the Bears do on defense. The game plan hasn’t changed much in the Lovie Smith era (because it works). They don’t look to confuse or trick opponents. Instead, they challenge offenses to execute.

So, if everyone knows what they’re going to do, how does it work and why is it still successful?

Their system employs two safeties over the top a little more than half the time (common for a Tampa/Cover 2 base defense). This hinders opponents from throwing deep, giving offenses the option to settle for small chunks of yards instead. But if offenses take that option they have to make progress on consecutive plays, collect first downs, and sustain drives without getting impatient. That’s hard.

And when offenses make mistakes or don’t execute, interceptions and fumbles are the natural by-product. In fact, even when offenses are converting, the defense funnels action to the middle of the field, within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, so defenders can easily converge on the ball. Turnovers follow.

That’s why Bear victories often hinge on a defensive play or turnover and why it continues to happen consistently. They play their system very well.

Ask Matt Ryan and the Falcons what it was like down 16-3 at halftime in Week One. They faced terrific pressure in the second half, the offensive line couldn’t hold up consistently, and Ryan had to scramble and hurry throws. The opportunistic Bears managed a second-half interception and returned it for a game-clinching touchdown because Atlanta was forced to pass against a scheme built to take advantage of it.

It’s not luck—it’s great defensive play.

And it can take the Bears all the way to the playoffs.

Again.