Fantasy Football: How To Recover from a Terrible Draft (TE Edition)
So your draft was held last night, and you rostered a terrible team. It happens.
Maybe you’d never done an auction before and got slaughtered.
Maybe you just didn’t draft smartly.
Or maybe, your Internet cut out for the first hour of your draft, but as commissioner, you couldn’t pause the draft allowing it to continue. And maybe, just maybe, you ended up with a roster lacking any star powerPeyton Hillis as your top RB, Dez Bryant as your WR1 and…Jacoby Ford as your WR2. A little specific, I know.
So whether or not you bombed your draft for any of the reasons above or simply want to get a leg up on your competition, here’s a guide to getting back into contention:
Introduction
1 of 5First and foremost, you have to go with upside players. To get to the playoffs where anything can happen, you don't need to be the best team, you just need to get a little lucky. To get there, it's going to take smart trades, selling high on players and uncovering gems before anyone else does.
The following slideshow will give you four players at QB to:
Trade for Right Now
These guys are owned in every league, but I honestly believe that their values are about to soar to elite status.
Pick up in Most Standard Leagues
They are guys who could be starters in your league but are not being valued as such right now. Get them before they hit it big.
Stash or Keep Tabs On
These are players that could come out of nowhere and post big fantasy seasons. These players are owned in under 15 percent of leagues and should be picked up or at least monitored.
Ditch while They Still Have Value
These players are rostered in almost every league but are due for a big downfall in my opinion. Trade them while you still can get a worthwhile return.
Trade For: Vernon Davis (SF)
2 of 5In a few mock drafts that I've seen lately, San Francisco 49ers TE Vernon Davis has been the fifth TE off the board following Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark. It seems that Vernon Davis, who many people believe COULD be an elite TE, is no longer being valued as one simply due to his situation in San Francisco, or more precisely, due to the Alex Smith.
And it's a fair argument.
Since Davis has entered the league, the 49ers offense has been brutal, especially at the QB position. However, regardless of how bad the 49ers' quarterbacks have been, Davis has gone for over 1,800 yards and 20 TDs over the last two seasons, third and first respectively among TEs over that stretch.
He's a freakishly-gifted athlete with incredible receiving ability, and in my opinion, is one of the only TEs in the entire league that could post Antonio Gates-like numbers this season.
Everyone has been waiting on Davis to break out. Well, this season is arguably his best shot at it. As mentioned in the QB Article, new head coach Jim Harbaugh is bringing the West Coast Offense back to its birthplace, which means quicker transfers from QB Alex Smith's hands into the playmakers' hands. Last season, Davis led all starting TEs, averaging 8.2 yards after catch (YAC), and yes, I'm telling you it could be even more this season.
Pick Up: Dustin Keller (NYJ)
3 of 5Last season, New York Jets TE Dustin Keller posted the best season of his NFL career. On the season, Keller posted a respectable 687 receiving yards, however it was his performance late in the season that has me projecting big numbers for him in 2011.
Even though his game log looks boom or bust at times, Keller became a frequent target of QB Mark Sanchez down the stretch, leading the team in targets two of their three playoff games and two of their last three regular season games. Like many of the other TEs that fantasy owners rave about, Keller is a tremendous athlete, quick enough to burn past linebackers and strong enough to manhandle defensive backs. He has quality receiving skills and can create mismatches for Sanchez to take advantage of.
While the additions of veteran wideouts Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress could potentially eat into Keller's targets, Sanchez knows what he has in Keller. While the third-year QB continues to develop chemistry with his new receivers, Keller could become the second option Sanchez looks to after WR1 Santonio Holmes.
In addition, Mason, Burress and Holmes are all respected veteran receivers which could mean that when the Jets get firing all on all cylinders, Keller could find himself open across the middle more often than not.
Keller is not Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis, but he is a big-bodied receiver that could be a focal point of the Jets offense in 2011. He's a legitimate starter with upside if you ended up missing out on a decent TE.
Deeper League Alert: Lance Kendricks (STL) has become a favorite and trusted target of second-year QB Sam Bradford this preseason. If the targets continue, Kendricks has top 10 potential.
Stash: Jermaine Gresham (CIN)
4 of 5Continuing on the gifted athlete/talented receiver train, Cincinnati Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham may not only be a safety blanket for rookie QB Andy Dalton but also his top over the middle threat. Gresham is a modern-day prototypical TE in the mold of Jermichael Finley and has one of the highest ceilings of anyone at his position. Like Keller, Gresham creates all sorts of mismatches lining up on a passing play, and if used properly, could surprise fantasy owners.
While I do not expect QB Andy Dalton to have any sort of fantasy relevance this season, I do think that Gresham could. The two showed chemistry this preseason, giving Dalton a steady go-to receiver, something of importance especially for a rookie QB.
Despite Gresham being the Bengals' best receiving option, AJ Green and Jordan Shipley are far more likely to get honed in on by defenses, creating favorable matchups against LBs and safeties for Gresham to abuse. Building off his 5.5 target/game rate last season, a 100-plus target season is not out of the question in 2011, and that type of increase could spell a top 10 finish.
Ditch: Rob Gronkowski (NE)
5 of 5If you're sitting with a bad team, it's especially important to go for high upside, "boom or bust" guys, EXCEPT at TE. New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski is one of those guys to avoid.
Last season, Gronkowski posted a phenomenal rookie campaign, tying Antonio Gates for most touchdowns by a TE with 10. While the touchdown total was great last season, it came with just 42 receptions (t-18th among TEs), making Gronkowski's fantasy relevance heavily dependent on red-zone targets and touchdown potential. When relying on a TE like Gronk, there will be big weeks but also quite a few zeroes that are tough to take.
And there really will be zeroes. While Gronkowski is a gigantic target at 6'6"/265, the Patriots do not utilize him as an every-down TE receiving option, instead relying on the more athletic Aaron Hernandez. The trend appeared to continue this preseason as Hernandez won the target battle 19-to-4.
Also keep in mind that as Hernandez continues to establish himself as one of Brady's favorite targets, it's not out of the question to think he could begin vulturing some red-zone targets from Gronkowkski as well.
As expected, the New England camp has been quiet. Either way, if I'm taking a shot on a New England TE, it's going to be Aaron Hernandez not Gronkowski who is owned in almost 50 percent more leagues at the moment.
Note: Check out the QB Guide. RB and WR guides will be posted soon and linked onto here as well.
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