Seattle Seahawks: Assessing Top Risks and Rewards Available in Free Agency

The Seahawks have 23 free agents, some major roster holes and are projected to have nearly $40 million in cap space. The organization will have the flexibility to make a big splash, or two, in filling their roster for 2011.

In the Seahawks’ free agency preview the focus was to highlight a well rounded group of players, of all salary levels, that could fit in a Seahawks uniform.

Many big name free agents were absent from that list—most of the players in focus this time around could make a “top-100” list, with some repeats when necessary.

We’re going to assess the risk Seattle would take in signing each player, as a larger contract equals a greater risk; but can also bring a better player. There will also be an assessment of the reward each player brings—please refer to notes below.

Many Seahawks fans are expecting the front office to have a plan to improve the roster. Easier said than done. They will have to take risks. Let’s sift through a list of potential higher profile rewards. 

Risk-reward scale:

1. A one to 10 scale will be used to assess risk and reward, one being the lowest risk/lowest upside and 10 being the riskiest/greatest reward.

2. This group of players is in the upper tier of free agents and most values will be above five, which is "average." Lower impact or backup players would have lower ratings, if the scale is used again.   

3. Risk is defined as the extent to which the signing will hurt the team given the worst-case scenario.

4. Reward is defined as the positive effect a player can have given the best-case scenario.

5. The numbers can be used in comparison. If the risk number is higher than the reward number, then the risk outweighs the reward. And vice versa.

Quarterbacks: It's All Relative

Simply put, there isn't much to choose from in this years quarterback crop. Seattle being one of the quarterback needy teams has limited options in filling two roster spots.

This is one position where we will stretch outside the top 100, simply because we have to in order to highlight the options. 

Matt Hasselbeck: Sans the 2010 playoffs, some would say only one game, his play and health has been on the decline since 2008.

The Seahawks have the chance to follow through on giving Whitehurst a chance to start, but does Seattle think he's ready? It's the unknown but the future that many want to see begin.

Most of the talk this offseason has been about the downside of Hasselbeck remaining in Seattle; but what about the upside--are we looking at a Kurt Warner type scenario, the best of cases? If not for his offseason presence and ties to Seattle, we'd be starting off with a hail mary.

Risk: 8.5/10

Reward: 8.5/10 

Tarvaris Jackson: Jackson has the athleticism and raw skills, but he hasn't really gotten a chance to mature as a quarterback. He was 8-4 as a starter in '07 and 3-1 to enter the playoffs in '08, his poor playoff performance didn't do much for his stock as a potential starter.

But the tie to Darrell Bevell is well documented. He would bring scheme versatility at the quarterback position. He wants to compete to be the starter and brings a skill set similar enough to Charlie Whitehurst to create interchangeability at quarterback.

An unknown yes, but if the Seahawks are to move onto the future, Jackson could be a legitimate sign and see option.

Risk: 3/10

Reward: 6.5/10

Runningback and Fullback: A Big Risk Worth Taking?

It's unlikely the team looks for a high profile running back. Fullback however, completely different story. They need a backfield blocking presence, and fullback isn't a high price position. 

Vonta Leach, FB/H-Back: Leach is interested in being a Seahawk. An All-Pro H-back leading the way for Arian Foster and the Texans, he appears to be the perfect fit for Seattle.

He hasn't missed a game since 2007, so while his high impact position is a concern—Mack Strong was gone in a blink of an eye—he appears to be durable, though approaching his 30th birthday.

The other caveat, he's reportedly looking for the richest fullback deal in NFL history.

There are demons to be exorcised at the position. Leach is the best candidate to demonize opposing defenses for the Seahawks at fullback.

Risk: 7/10

Reward: 9.5/10

Le'Ron McClain, RB/FB: There is no doubt he can be a large part of an offense, but does a large role exist for him in Seattle? Oh, he wants to be very involved wherever he goes.

Leach has three career carries, two touchdowns and only 40 catches combined the past three seasons. McClain had 49 touches in 2010 alone, 232 carries in 2008.

He's younger, but he doesn't appear to be nearly as tight of a fit. Seattle risks dissatisfaction with touches and a misfit scenario. 

Risk: 9/10

Reward: 7/10 

Wide Receiver and Tight End: Small Tweaks Needed, but What About a Big Name?

Seattle has unproven depth at both positions. A free-agent role player is a definite possibility. But does Seattle need to pursue a top-tier free agent at either position?

Malcolm Floyd, WR: Floyd is a big bodied, big play receiver that has been very productive at times in San Diego. He is a deep threat the Seahawks could use to stretch the field.

However, the Seahawks drafted the 6'5" Kris Durham; Floyd is turning 30 and he played in only 11 games last season. If Deon Butler recovers, the team has depth at receiver.

Floyd could bring a short-term reward, but is he worth the long term risk?

Risk: 8/10

Reward: 6/10

Lance Moore, WR: He is among the league's underrated slot receivers, some think a product of the system in New Orleans.

However, there is no denying he is a savvy route runner and knowledgeable player—a factor on special teams—with good toughness as a smaller player at 5'9".

The team will look for Golden Tate to assume part of Brandon Stokley's duties, and while Moore is a long shot, he'd be a young veteran addition to a budding receiver corps.

Risk: 5/10

Reward: 7.5/10 

Zach Miller, TE: The Seahawks don't need an elite tight end, unless they decide a player like Miller is worth pursuing as an upgrade over John Carlson. 

As the top tight end on the market, he will demand a sizable contract; but he is a complete tight end that is familiar with Tom Cable's blocking principals and can be even more productive if placed in a more explosive passing game.

A risk because it's not a primary need.

Risk: 8.5/10

Reward: 7/10

Offensive Line: More Switching Necessary?

Tom Cable came to Seattle to fix the running game and stir up some attitude on the offensive line.

We have seen he has no problem moving players around. James Carpenter and John Moffitt are the presumed right tackle and guard, both left-side players in college.

In the first free agency overview the left guard spot was the position of focus  but are there top free agents who could move across the trenches?

We saw Seattle be extremely aggressive in the draft to re-build the line. Do they continue their approach?

Marshal Yanda, OT/OG: Yanda is the top guard/tackle available, a right-side player for the past two seasons.

The risk with pursuing Yanda is his services are highly coveted; and rumored to be by some big spending teams. While Seattle needs to invest in their final piece of the offensive line, pursuing an upper echelon player could be risky strategy, given the holes on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

Risk: 8.5/10

Reward: 8/10

Tyson Clabo, OT: The Falcons' starting right tackle for nearly half a decade, only after playing left guard for a Tom Cable coached offensive line in 2006.

He has been rumored as a target at guard for Seattle in recent weeks, and appears to fit the profile as a potential position mover in Cable's dream-line. He is among the top, but not elite, tackles available with a strong combination of versatility and expirience.

The risk lies in that he may want offensive tackle dollars, but Seattle may be ready to spend to finish their offensive line project.

Risk: 6.5/10

Reward: 8/10

Robert Gallery, LG: Gallery's ties to Cable are well known. The problem is, Gallery reportedly asked for $8 million a season from the Raiders, who countered with $2.5 million. Clearly a difference in opinion.

He has missed 14 games in the past two seasons, and his play declined in 2010. Seattle tried the veteran at left guard approach in 2010 and suffered as aging players couldn't stay healthy.

If Seattle is going to pursue a high profile guard with a big contract, I believe they would be best served choosing a more youthful option.

Risk: 9.5/10

Reward: 7/10 

Defensive Line: Risk and Reward Across the Board

The Seahawks will have options in filling their many holes on the defensive line. Pursuing a high profile lineman, or two, is a distinct possibility.

If Seattle chooses to pursue major parts instead of a line-by-committee approach, they will have a choice in how much they want to risk in patching their defensive line, but a bold move could bring big rewards.

Cullen Jenkins, DL: Technically a 3-4 defensive end, he has the pass rushing skills to play 3-tech for Seattle and move across the line. 

But, he missed five games in 2011 and 12 games in 2008; now a 30 year old lineman, Seattle ideally needs to get younger and healthier in the trenches.

Furthermore, his prior contract was hefty enough at four years, $16 million, and he is likely looking for a raise.

Jenkins could be on Seattle's radar, but I believe he is a tremendous risk; especially given Seattle's need for many lineman.

Risk: 10/10

Reward: 8.5/10

Brandon Mebane, DT: I personally am not surprised the Seahawks have been lukewarm on Mebane, as he is not ideal for the 3-tech tackle in Carroll's scheme—he had his greatest success at the nose tackle spot in 2008.

However, we learned yesterday nose tackle Colin Cole is in a boot after surgery on the same ankle that hindered him last season. He just turned 31 and is due $3.75 million in 2011.

Mebane missed four games in 2010, after missing one his first three seasons; but Seattle's thinnest position just got thinner. Did Mebane's value to Seattle just rise, even more than it had after the draft when the team didn't address the defensive tackle spot?

His services will be highly valued elsewhere, and signing him will require a sizable contract.

Risk: 8.5/10

Reward: 8.5/10

Barry Cofield, DT: I highlighted Cofield previously as a player the Seahawks could pursue instead of Mebane. He had a very strong season in 2010 after an OK 2009, which raises the question; is his improved play something permanent?

The greatest improvement was his pass rushing, four sacks in 2010. He is a hard working, durable lineman that would be a solid signing at the 3-tech spot. 

Risk: 7/10

Reward: 8.5/10

Mathias Kiwanuka, DE: An athletic, versatile pass rusher that brings a Chris Clemons like skill set. However, after a fast start of four sacks in three games, he went on IR with a herniated disk in 2010—the injury that ended Mack Strong's career.

While Seattle may not pursue Raheem Brock, I believe they would be wise to steer clear of Kiwanuka, unless he can be had for a small contract.

Risk: 9/10

Reward: 7/10

Charles Johnson, DE: Johnson had a breakout season after Julius Peppers departed for Chicago. His snaps doubled as did his career sack total.

However, Johnson is drawing a lot of hype for a somewhat unproven player. Obviously he has potential, but Seattle has a defensive end of their own coming off a breakout season, not under contract.

Whether he a sound fit for the Seahawks' 4-3 would is the main question.    

Risk: 9.5/10

Reward: 9/10

Trade Rumor Alert

Osi Umenyiora, DE: John Clayton broke the news yesterday the Seahawks could explore acquiring he 29-year-old, premier pass rusher, as long as he doesn't cost a first-round pick.

Over the past five seasons, five games missed—all in 2007—three double-digit sack seasons and four seasons with four or more forced fumbles, a sickening 10 forced in 2010.

Four years younger than Brock and more proven than a guy like Johnson—and even Ray Edwards, a player of note in the first preview—Umenyiora is an intriguing fit.

He would require a large contract, but Seattle would then have a potential replacement for Chris Clemons; and a dangerous pass rushing duo in the meantime. Consider this the happy medium between Brock and a younger veteran.

Risk: 9/10

Reward: 8/10 

Linebackers: A Movement Toward the Future?

The linebacker competition is already crowded heading into 2011 after the team took two of them in the draft. Seattle may be looking for a free-agent linebacker but already have large contracts to juggle with Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu. 

The pursuit of a top tier linebacker would be surprising, as they likely will look for depth at the position.

Stephen Tulloch, ILB: The top inside linebacker on the market is an instinctual "thumper" in the middle. He is solid in pass coverage as well and is an all-around linebacker that any team would covet.

It's a risk to bring him to Seattle merely because of the cap space already taken up by the position, but if Seattle chooses to make some drastic changes, he could be their guy. I'm not holding my breath.

Risk: 8/10

Reward: 8.5/10

James Anderson, OLB: Anderson finally saw the field as a full time player in 2010, 14 games on the strong side and two on the weakside and made a major impact for the Panthers.

If linebacker Thomas Davis makes a full recovery, Carolina may have to let Anderson walk. And while Seattle doesn't have a major need at strong side 'backer, Anderson is the type of versatile player the Seahawks may covet to move around the linebacking corps.

He is a premier injury replacement and in 2010 was a full-time, good starter. The question is can he do it again?

Risk: 5/10

Reward: 7.5/10

Quincy Black, OLB: A two-year starter at strong side linebacker, Black is a stout and strong player. He ran 4.42 and registered a 41.5" vertical at the combine in 2007, among other strong numbers. 

He broke his arm toward the end of 2010, after spending the first half of the season proving his game was on the rise.

He has the speed and athleticism the Seahawks may look for in a linebacker; does his familiarity with former Bucs, now Seahawks' defensive coaches Gus Bradley and Todd Wash make a difference?

If Aaron Curry successfully moves to a more-attacking the line of scrimmage oriented role as planned, Black is a solid free agent alternative to a player like Anderson.

Risk: 6/10

Reward: 7.5/10 

Defensive Back: Finding the Right Fit

Seattle could have as many as three holes to fill in the defensive backfield. They do have an unproven, talented group that is expected to compete for playing time, but experience is needed all the way around.

Nnamdi Asomugha, CB: He is the consensus top free-agent target, but unfourtunately he is not an ideal fit for the Seahawks.

While his presence on the field is undeniable, as teams have thrown his way less and less in recent seasons, Seattle is not a team that is one or two players from being a contender, nor are they one piece away from being a near elite defense.  

He wants to play for a contender and Seattle likely can't afford him. Breaking the bank for Asumogha with holes to fill across the roster would be a surprising move.  

Risk: 10/10

Reward: 9.5/10 

Johnathan Joseph, CB: Joseph was the top cornerback option I highlighted previously for Seattle, but as mentioned, his injury concerns are a red flag.

Leon Hall appears to be the Bengals' priority at cornerback, and Joseph had a breakout 2009 followed by an inconsistent 2010. 

One assessment I have seen thrown around with his name on multiple occasions is it would be nice to see him play like a No. 1 cornerback before he is paid like one, which he likely will be.

If the Seahawks can re-structure Marcus Trufant's contract, this type of signing becomes very feasible. Seattle would have a very formidable one-two, with depth to develop.

Risk: 8.5/10

Reward: 9/10 

Eric Wright, CB: Wright appeared to be heading towards a strong pay day going into 2010, but only 10 starts and a season ending trip to the IR stunted his value. He went from being a borderline No. 1 corner to receiving death threats due to poor play. 

He started his college career at USC with Pete Carroll but transfered. Character issues followed him into the pros, but his talent has never been in doubt.

He's a bit small for the "prototypical" Seahawks corner, but his athletic ability, aggressive coverage skills and willingness to be physical could make him an attractive fall back option as a player looking to rebound—and assuming things are OK with Carroll. 

Risk: 7/10

Reward: 7.5/10

Antonio Cromartie, CB: He has the length and athleticism that this front office covets, and his skill set is suited for an aggressive coverage scheme.

However, is Cromartie a fit in the Seattle locker room? He has proven to be a brash personality at times; Seattle may need to replace leadership and Cromartie is still a maturing player.

This would be a bold signing for Seattle, but they would definitely be acquiring a talented cover cornerback.

Risk: 9/10

Reward: 8/10 

Quintin Mikell, SS: Another player previously highlighted, he is one of the bigger name free agents that could fit if Lawyer Milloy does not return.

Mikell struggled after the death of long time Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, which occured four days after his resignation in July of 2009. In 2008 and 2010, Mikell was among the league's top safeties.

He's a bit undersized, but has experience in a complex scheme and is durable. His leadership would be valuable for an extremely young group.

A long shot yes, but potentially a savvy plan to groom the safety duo fans hope can one day conjure comparisons to Eugene Robinson and maybe even Kenny Easley.

Risk: 7/10

Reward: 8.5/10

Kicker: Nothing has changed. Click here for a quick breakdown.