NFL 2011 Preview: Which Quarterbacks Will Throw More Than 16 Interceptions?

Interceptions have always been a bit of a scapegoat statistic in football. Sure, they’re bad; sometimes they mean the infuriating end to a game. But somehow picks have made it onto the short list when summing up a quarterback: yards, touchdowns and interceptions. There’s your snap shot.

You’d probably turn your nose up at a quarterback that finished second worst in the league with twenty-two interceptions last year—until I told you it was Drew Brees (4620, 33, 22). And throwing a lot of interceptions doesn’t necessarily mean that your team won’t go far in the post-season. Peyton Manning (6^th in 2009), Ben Roethlisberger (4^th in 2008), Kurt Warner (6^th in 2008), Eli Manning (tied for 1^st in 2007) and Rex Grossman (3^rd in 2006) all led their teams (in some cases, with serious help from defenses) to Super Bowls with league leading interception totals.

Also interesting to see as the league focuses more on the pass, the percent of passes thrown for interceptions is going down. The average team attempted 514.5 passes in 2005; that number grew to 539.7 in 2010. But the number of interceptions didn’t really change significantly, hovering from 15.8 in 2005 to 16.0 in 2010.

But in the end, we do need interceptions to tell some sort of story about a quarterback. There is a painful shortage of good football statistics. A while ago I argued that we really can’t handle more complex numbers because the action in football is too jumbled. Not that we can’t follow the game; there are just too many moving pieces on the field for additional numbers to make intuitive sense. We can’t “see” things like Defense Adjusted Passing Yards. We just see Alex Smith throw another interception and know it’s bad. Sabermetrics has been fun for baseball, but it doesn’t translate in the same way to football.

So here are your quarterbacks in 2011 that are going to crest the 16-interception mark. That’s one per game, a distinction guys like Phillip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers (albeit in a shorter career) have never had. It’s a watermark anyone can agree is a bad thing, even if we can’t necessarily prove that it determines a team’s success (or lack thereof).

Brett Favre

Just wouldn’t feel right not to have him on this list, regardless of whether he plays. By the way, if anyone is making the “Brett Favre as a Pantheon Level Quarterback” argument, just remind them: in 302 career starts he threw 332 interceptions.

Guys Who Did Last Year and Won’t This Year

Peyton Manning: He threw 17 picks last year, but his interception percentage was a healthy 2.5%. Those 17 mistakes can be traced to a league leading 679 passes. Last year the Colts had a, shall we say, confused running game. Let’s assume they put the pieces together a little better and don’t need Peyton throwing as much.

Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer: Only throwing them here because there are so many questions around their starting job or whether they want to stay. Though, if they start all 16 games for their current teams, I think they’ll hit 16+ again.

Jam Clewton

No one knows whether Jimmy Clausen or Cam Newton will take the majority of the snaps this season. But either way, this team is going to be turning over the ball through the air. A lot. Neither of them are good quarterbacks, and yes, I mean that about Newton. Vintage draft day hype and eventual bust.

Eli Manning

Few everyday quarterbacks come to mind faster when you hear the word “interception” than Eli, especially if you’ve ever owned him on a fantasy team. He led the league last year with 25 (not to mention 5 lost fumbles…30 turnovers, yikes).

Not counting his rookie year where he didn’t start until half-way through the season, Manning’s broken the 16-interception mark more than he hasn’t. His lowest pick total was 2008 (10) when the Giants were able to lean on one of the leagues best running games. 2009 was the only other year with 14 times.

The Giants do a great job sticking and pounding with the run, but though they finished 2010 with the 6^th highest rush total, Eli still managed to throw the ball to the wrong guy more than anyone in the league. No reason to think he doesn’t keep it up.

David Garrard

He has never thrown 16 picks in a season but here’s the theory: The Jags will need to start practicing a more open passing game that suits Blaine Gabbert. Now, I think the run-heavy Jags and pass-happy Gabbert are about as good a fit as James Harrison dating Miley Cyrus, but he’s their quarterback of the future, like it or not.

But considering the coach-player freeze this past offseason, Gabbert likely won’t start until very late in the season, if at all. The Jags have always found Garrard serviceable, so there isn’t a rush like there is in Carolina or Minnesota. That’ll give Garrard plenty of time to step out of his comfort zone and pass in what will be a more spread offense…and rack up picks in the process.

Joe Webb

It’s not entirely clear how the starting quarterback picture is going to pan out in the Twin Cities. Jake Locker Christian Ponder is the guy the Vikings really wanted in the draft, but he’s too raw to step into the job Week 1. He’ll need at least a month or two with a clipboard before getting the ball.

But no matter whether it’s Joe Webb, Christian Ponder, Patrick Ramsey, Brett Favre, Randall Cunningham or Joe Mauer, the Vikings quarterback will throw over 16 interceptions.

Sam Bradford

He was 3rd in the league in attempts his rookie season (590) and finished ninth in interceptions (15). That’s pretty impressive actually. But the Rams did play a light schedule last year and no doubt Steve Spagnulo will trust his sophomore quarterback in more tight situations in 2011. It’ll mean Bradford can show off why he was the number one pick, but it’ll also probably mean a boost to his pick total as well.

John Beck

If John Beck ascends to the starting job (his last regular season NFL snap was in 2007!!), I don’t see how he doesn’t average a pick per game; in fact two doesn’t seem out of the question. The Eagles (3^rd), Cowboys (7^th) and Giants (15^th) all had defenses that ranked in the top half of the league in pick offs.

If the Beck business is just offseason talk and Grossman gets the job, then, well, just reread everything that I said about Beck (minus the not playing quarterback since George Bush was president bit). If McNabb takes the job back though…all bets are off. (He’s never thrown more than 15.)

Chad Henne

If he starts each game, he’ll get to 16 picks easily. He only started 14 last year and tallied 19. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both a year older and always with injury concerns, the Dolphins will have to trust in Henne’s arm, even when they really don’t want to. Not to mention the Dolphins have two games against the Patriots (2010’s pick leader), the Eagles (3^rd) and the Cowboys (7^th).

Matt Stafford

He only threw one pick last year. And then his arm fell off. But after Dr Freeze (Grey Albright’s awesome nickname for Dr James Andrews) put his shoulder put back together, the Lions have him slated as the starter for the season. Hopefully their days of Shaun Hill are over.

If Stafford does play all 16 games, as he’s vowed to do, he will throw picks—lots of them. In his rookie campaign he managed twenty picks in just ten games. Yes, it’s two years later, but he’s only played three NFL games since then. He looked good in them (535, 6, 1) but with a full season against stronger pass takeaway D’s than the Jets and Redskins, he’ll regress to the mean.

Again, if he stays healthy.

Colt McCoy

Pat Shurmur has been brought in to work the same magic he put on Sam Bradford last year; this season McCoy should be your Browns starter, barring injury or a complete bed crapping. Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme are not great alternatives. But even in just eight starts and a handful of random appearances in 2010, McCoy managed to throw nine picks. As a starter now, I don’t see how he doesn’t crack 16. I mean…name a Browns receiver. Peyton Hillis can only handle so much. And those four games against the Ravens and Steelers’ D aren’t ever going anywhere.

Jay Cutler

Cutler hasn’t missed the 16-pick mark since his sophomore season in 2007. In fact, he tossed an impressive 26 footballs to the wrong guy in 2009, good for most in the league. They say that success is largely a state of mind; Cutler could probably help himself by losing the sulk routine after every bummer play. You can’t blame a pathetic receiving corp for every mistake.

Drew Brees

If you missed it in the intro, Brees had 22 picks last year. In fact, in a 137 career starts, he has 132 career interceptions;  hitting 16 this season doesn’t seem a reach at all for the Pro Bowler. I’ve noted before that I think the Saints defense is not nearly as good as people want to believe or the numbers show; so I’m not so sure they don’t get exposed in 2011, and Brees has to air it out a bit more than he did last year.

His 22 picks were not the result of a few disastrous games either. He didn’t throw a pick against San Francisco, Minnesota or Carolina (um, congrats), but otherwise he was good for at least a pick per game. He only threw three picks (vs. Arizona) and four picks (Cleveland) once—and that’s against teams you don’t want to be flailing against. Brees throws for a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns, so as also mentioned in the intro, picks are not always indicative of an awful quarterback.

[Follow Caleb on  Twitter or Bleacher Report if you want more musings. He also wrote a book called The St George's Angling Club, which you can buy on Amazon.]