NFL Free-Agency Big Board: Where the Top 50 Free Agents Are Headed
December 20, 2016NFL Free-Agency Big Board: Where the Top 50 Free Agents Are Headed
So what if there's no NFL free agency right now due to a ridiculously long lockout?
At some point, there will be an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement and when that happens, the free agency flood gates will open wide.
You can bet that NFL teams are already assembling their own free agency big boards and making plans for which players to target once free agency is allowed.
We've done the same, breaking down the top 50 free agents and where they will be playing in 2011.
50. Wide Receiver Randy Moss
2010 Team: Tennessee Titans
2011 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Breakdown: It might not seem like the Bengals would essentially trade Randy Moss for Chad Ochocinco or Terrell Owens, but it makes more sense than you think.
Cincinnati is becoming a young team and will need a mentor for wide receivers A.J. Green, Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley. The guy to do that is Moss.
While some might say Moss cannot handle the task at hand, we believe it would give him a renewed purpose in 2011 and bring out whatever he has left in the tank.
49. Wide Receiver Terrell Owens
2010 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: The Texans do not have a huge need at wide receiver, but they would like to get a better option opposite Andre Johnson.
What better player to bring in than Owens?
TO may get a lot of heat for his mouth, but his play on the field is solid. He's an established blocker and can excel when a good receiver is playing opposite him.
48. Linebacker Thomas Howard
2010 Team: Oakland Raiders
2011 Team: Detroit Lions
Breakdown: The Raiders do not tend to value their linebackers. Starter Kirk Morrison was let go last year, and it appears that turnover machine Thomas Howard will be on the market this summer.
Howard is a perfect fit in the Lions scheme. He's quick enough to cover the flats and stout enough to come up and set the edge against the run.
47. Wide Receiver James Jones
2010 Team: Green Bay Packers
2011 Team: Cleveland Browns
Breakdown: James Jones leaving Green Bay is all but a foregone conclusion at this point. The Packers drafted his replacement in Randall Cobb, and the general feeling is that Jones will get No. 1 wide receiver money on the open market.
Many teams need a receiver as talented as Jones, but none as bad as the Cleveland Browns. Jones is a great fit for the West Coast offense and will give Cleveland speed and athleticism on the outside.
46. Safety Roman Harper
2010 Team: New Orleans Saints
2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Breakdown: There is a need for a good safety on other rosters, but no team has as good of a chance to make a Super Bowl run as the Saints do.
By leaving New Orleans, Harper may see a bigger payday, but he wouldn't have a chance for a second Super Bowl ring.
45. Wide Receiver Malcom Floyd
2010 Team: San Diego Chargers
2011 Team: San Diego Chargers
Breakdown: While Malcom Floyd could see a bigger payday on the open market, he will not be pursued as heavily as other free-agent wide receivers due to the saturation at the position this offseason.
Floyd is a good receiver, good enough to be a No. 1 in fact—and he will be when the team loses Vincent Jackson.
44. Cornerback Ike Taylor
2010 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
2011 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Breakdown: Pittsburgh cannot afford to let Ike Taylor hit the open market. Their need at cornerback is huge, even with Taylor back on the roster. Pittsburgh will need to re-sign Taylor and possibly look to add another top free agent at the position.
43. Tackle Jared Gaither
2010 Team: Baltimore Ravens
2011 Team: Buffalo Bills
Breakdown: Most casual observers would wonder why the Ravens would allow a 25-year-old offensive tackle to leave the team.
Gaither has played left and right tackle, has amazing size and productivity.
He's also been hurt quite a bit in his career. Gaither supposedly checks out medically now, which will be key to his value on the market.
Buffalo is not a glamorous destination, but it will give Gaither a chance to prove he's healthy and make decent money while doing so.
42. Defensive Tackle Brandon Mebane
2010 Team: Seattle Seahawks
2011 Team: Denver Broncos
Breakdown: The Seahawks have a need at defensive tackle, but they are not expected to make a push to re-sign Brandon Mebane.
If Seattle does not push to re-sign Mebane, he will be a much sought-after player on the free-agent market. Teams like the Denver Broncos, who have a huge need at defensive tackle, will overpay for the talented defensive tackle.
41. Guard Daryn Colledge
2010 Team: Green Bay Packers
2011 Team: Green Bay Packers
Breakdown: It seems the popular opinion is that Green Bay will let Daryn Colledge leave via free agency—but where will he go?
Colledge has a starting job on the best team in football and will see a good increase in pay based on his free-agent status.
We do think Colledge will be pursued, we just don't see anyone offering what Green Bay can.
40. Running Back Ronnie Brown
2010 Team: Miami Dolphins
2011 Team: Chicago Bears
Breakdown: Ronnie Brown's days in Miami are numbered. Where he could make his impact felt in 2011 is in a complementary role to a young running back.
Which is why we think Chicago would be a great fit. With the Bears, Brown can platoon with Matt Forte and have a real chance to win a Super Bowl ring in the next four years.
39. Wide Receiver Brad Smith
2010 Team: New York Jets
2011 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Breakdown: Brad Smith is one of three free-agent wide receivers on the Jets' roster this summer. And he's likely to be left out when it comes time for new contracts.
Where Smith would be welcome is Pittsburgh. The team is looking to get younger at receiver and would love to have a triple-threat like Smith on the roster.
Smith will make an immediate impact as a return man, receiver and wildcat quarterback.
38. Running Back BenJarvus Green-Ellis
2010 Team: New England Patriots
2011 Team: St. Louis Rams
Breakdown: It's uncommon for 25-year-old running backs coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season to hit the free-agent market.
The Patriots were likely to re-sign Green-Ellis until they drafted Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. Now, it looks like he will be able to find new employers.
In St. Louis he would not be the No. 1 runner but work in rotation with Steven Jackson, something that may not seem ideal, but there are not many starting running back jobs available.
37. Fullback Vonta Leach
2010 Team: Houston Texans
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: The Texans are not going to let the best fullback in the NFL go.
In 2011, Leach was voted an All-Pro and named the No. 65 player in the NFL Network's Top 100—as voted by NFL players.
36. Tackle Jermon Bushrod
2010 Team: New Orleans Saints
2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Breakdown: The Saints have Charles Brown teed up to play left tackle in the future which could mean moving Jermon Bushrod to right tackle in replacing free-agent Zach Strief for depth or even overtaking Jon Stinchcomb as the starter.
Bushrod would get some attention on the open market. His value is worth watching.
35. Safety Dawan Landry
2010 Team: Baltimore Ravens
2011 Team: Baltimore Ravens
Breakdown: The Ravens do a great job of keeping their own free agents, which is what we believe will happen with strong safety Dawan Landry.
While Landry has been linked to teams like the Dallas Cowboys, we cannot see him leaving the Ravens' locker room for another city.
34. Linebacker Barrett Ruud
2010 Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Team: Detroit Lions
Breakdown: Tampa Bay drafted a replacement for Barrett Ruud when they added Mason Foster this year through the draft. Ruud will see attention on the market, but it is worth noting that few teams need a starting middle linebacker.
We like the move to Detroit, as both teams running a similar defense, and Ruud would be a massive improvement over DeAndre Levy.
33. Linebacker Rocky McIntosh
2010 Team: Washington Redskins
2011 Team: Washington Redskins
Breakdown: Rocky McIntosh has been the subject of some speculation this offseason. He is a talented young linebacker with loads of potential, plus he has experience in the 3-4 defense.
While McIntosh will have suitors on the open market the best situation for him will be in Washington—that is if he buys in to what Mike Shanahan is selling.
Otherwise, McIntosh could be a nice addition in Kansas City or with the New York Giants.
32. Safety Quintin Mikell
2010 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: The Eagles drafted Quintin Mikell's replacement in the second round when they added Jaiquawn Jarrett. Mikell will be sought after by many teams, but no one has the money to add the potential for success in 2011 like the Houston Texans.
It is warm in Houston, they have no state income tax and the Texans are an up-and-coming team. Mikell will make them even better.
31. Running Back Cedric Benson
2010 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
2011 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Breakdown: The Bengals need Cedric Benson, and Cedric Benson needs the Bengals.
It is unlikely that Benson would leave or even wants to leave. He has been a part of the offseason in Cincinnati and would have few starting opportunities if he did leave the Bengals.
Cincinnati also knows they need Benson, as they have no one on the roster who could take his spot.
30. Wide Receiver Steve Smith
2010 Team: New York Giants
2011 Team: New York Giants
Breakdown: The Giants may have a talented group of wide receivers, but Steve Smith is still their No. 1 guy.
Until Hakeem Nicks and/or Mario Manningham show they can be a consistent, every-down threat, the Giants will need Smith in town.
Expect to hear Steve Smith linked to just about every team with a need at wide receiver but also expect him to stay in New York.
29. Linebacker Stephen Tulloch
2010 Team: Tennessee Titans
2011 Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Breakdown: The Titans drafted Colin McCarthy, an underrated middle linebacker from Miami, to replace Tulloch as the team's MIKE linebacker.
The Jaguars are likely to lose Kirk Morrison to free agency, as he is looking for a ring or at least a chance to compete for one.
This makes the signing of division rival in Tulloch doubly important.
28. Wide Receiver Santana Moss
2010 Team: Washington Redskins
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: The Redskins would love to keep Santana Moss, but we believe they will be unable to do so without an established quarterback on the roster. Free agents in Washington are more likely to leave than stay this summer as it does not look like the Redskins will contend in 2011.
Moss would be teamed with Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and predicted free-agent signee Terrell Owens to give the Texans offense an added punch in their first ever playoff season in 2011.
27. Defensive End Charles Johnson
2010 Team: Carolina Panthers
2011 Team: Carolina Panthers
Breakdown: The offseason priorities in Carolina are to trade Steve Smith, sign a veteran quarterback and sign Charles Johnson to a long-term deal.
As an unrestricted free agent, Johnson can sign anywhere, but we believe he's committed to staying in Carolina and seeing the Panthers turnaround first-hand.
New head coach Ron Rivera will be key to Johnson's re-signing.
26. Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards
2010 Team: New York Jets
2011 Team: St. Louis Rams
Breakdown: The Jets will be focused on signing wide receiver Santonio Holmes and cornerback Antonio Cromartie while Braylon Edwards is being courted by other receiver-needy teams.
Edwards would be an ideal No. 1 receiver in St. Louis and also give the team a viable threat opposite Donnie Avery. While St. Louis does have a solid group of receivers, no one on the roster can stretch the field like Edwards.
This move would automatically make Sam Bradford a better quarterback and make the Rams more of a contender in 2011.
25. Running Back Ahmad Bradshaw
2010 Team: New York Giants
2011 Team: New York Giants
Breakdown: Let's face it, the Giants cannot afford to lose Ahmad Bradshaw, and Bradshaw will not find a better situation elsewhere in the NFL.
Few teams are in a situation where they need a starting running back right now, and Bradshaw would not benefit from leaving New York to be a back up.
The Giants and Bradshaw will work something out as soon as the lockout is over.
24. Tackle Matt Light
2010 Team: New England Patriots
2011 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Breakdown: It it hard to believe that a Pro Bowl left tackle would hit the open market, but the Patriots will let Matt Light go this offseason.
Light turns 33 this summer and may have two or three good seasons at left tackle remaining. While New England has plans for Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder, Light simply doesn't fit their plans.
One team's trash is another team's treasure in the NFL—Light will have plenty of options. We like his fit with the defending AFC champion Steelers due to their need for a premier left tackle. Light will also be looking for a chance to win another ring late in his career.
23. Defensive End Jason Babin
2010 Team: Tennessee Titans
2011 Team: Tennessee Titans
Breakdown: We had previously written about the fact that Jason Babin may see a lot of attention on the open market, which could lead to him leaving Tennessee for more money as this will likely be his last contract.
However, Babin knows he has a great situation in Tennessee. Babin's entire career has been plagued with inconsistency, so a chance to stay in the same city running the same defense will be appealing to him and his family.
22. Linebacker Paul Posluszny
2010 Team: Buffalo Bills
2011 Team: Buffalo Bills
Breakdown: Buffalo is not a glamorous location, and the football team has just been so-so over the past decade, but it's comfortable enough and the team is close enough to contending for some key free agents to come to town and re-sign instead of leaving for greener pastures.
We feel that Paul Posluszny could see a large payday if he opted to hit the open market, but it doesn't seem like he wants to leave Buffalo.
The Bills are getting closer to contending. Those who stick around will be rewarded.
21. Nose Tackle Aubrayo Franklin
2010 Team: San Francisco 49ers
2011 Team: San Francisco 49ers
Breakdown: As the only nose tackle in our top 50 free agents, Aubrayo Franklin could see a good amount of attention from other teams running a 3-4 defense.
While there will be other suitors—we believe Denver will be one of them—Franklin is at home in San Francisco and has shown no desire to leave the team via free agency.
20. Tight End Zach Miller
2010 Team: Oakland Raiders
2011 Team: Miami Dolphins
Breakdown: We are not sure why the Raiders used their franchise tag on average outside linebacker Kamerion Wimbley when they could have locked up a marquee player like Zach Miller, but one cannot explain Al Davis' moves.
At 26 years old, Miller is coming off his first Pro Bowl and has shown impressive potential and ability. Given a stable offense and reliable quarterback he could really explode.
The Dolphins are looking for an athletic tight end and would love to have Miller in South Beach.
19. Defensive End Ray Edwards
2010 Team: Minnesota Vikings
2011 Team: Atlanta Falcons
Breakdown: Ray Edwards has been famously quoted as saying he will not return to Minnesota and make less than his backup (Brian Robison). We believe him.
Edwards has been linked to the Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons this offseason. Given the chance, we think he will flee for Atlanta and a chance to win a Super Bowl.
18. Guard Marshall Yanda
2010 Team: Baltimore Ravens
2011 Team: Baltimore Ravens
Breakdown: Marshall Yanda may not be a household name yet, but he will be after the attention he'll get from other NFL teams during free agency.
Yanda is among the best guards in the NFL and has proven he can play tackle equally well when asked to. Teams like Washington and Oakland are likely to pursue Yanda hard once they are able to speak with him, but we believe his desire to win in Baltimore will be strong enough to see him re-sign with the Ravens.
17. Defensive End/Outside Linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka
2010 Team: New York Giants
2011 Team: New England Patriots
Breakdown: The New York Giants have too many free agents to sign this offseason to possibly get them all under new deals for 2011. The team also has an overstocked roster at defensive end and will need to make tough decisions on who to use and who to let go.
Mathias Kiwanuka, a hyrid end/linebacker, is among those the team has decided to let go. Kiwi will not be without work for long.
His athleticism and experience as an outside linebacker will make him an ideal candidate for the 3-4 defense. Expect interest from the Jets and Patriots early and often.
In the end, we believe Bill Belichick is a better fit for Kiwi, plus his Boston College connections will help seal the deal.
16. Linebacker Chad Greenway
2010 Team: Minnesota Vikings
2011 Team: Minnesota Vikings
Breakdown: The Vikings used their franchise tag on Chad Greenway before the lockout was started, and it is unlikely any team would give up the draft picks required to sign Greenway and compensate the Vikings.
15. Defensive End Cliff Avril
2010 Team: Detroit Lions
2011 Team: New York Jets
Breakdown: Cliff Avril has spent the last three seasons rushing the passer from the defensive end position in Detroit's 4-3 defense.
When he hits the open market this summer, many will see the 6'3", 265 lb. Avril as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense.
If the New England Patriots go after Mathias Kiwanuka, as we expect, that will leave Avril for the Jets to make a big-money run at.
14. Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson
2010 Team: San Diego Chargers
2011 Team: New England Patriots
Breakdown: The Chargers and Vincent Jackson have been arguing about a new contract for two seasons. After sitting out the first nine weeks of the 2010 season, it would appear that Jackson is ready to leave San Diego, even if they did tag him as their franchise player.
While it takes two first-round picks to compensate a team when you sign away their non-exclusive franchise player, it is possible to work out separate compensation. This is what we believe will happen.
With two first-round picks in 2012, one coming from New Orleans, we see the Patriots sending a first-rounder to San Diego for Jackson's rights.
13. Cornerback Brent Grimes
2010 Team: Atlanta Falcons
2011 Team: Atlanta Falcons
Breakdown: Brent Grimes made the Pro Bowl in 2010 and established himself as one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. Perhaps even better than big-money free agent and teammate Dunta Robinson.
The Falcons cannot afford to lose Grimes and will make a play to re-sign the restricted free agent as soon as the new league year begins.
12. Wide Receiver Santonio Holmes
2010 Team: New York Jets
2011 Team: New York Jets
Breakdown: As mentioned before, the Jets have three wide receivers entering free agency this summer, plus cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Their ability to sign all four seems unlikely, and we've predicted both Brad Smith and Braylon Edwards to sign elsewhere.
Holmes is the one player we have the best feeling about re-signing in New York. He's well liked in the clubhouse and by coach Rex Ryan—plus he's honestly the best of the team's wide receivers.
11. Tackle Tyson Clabo
2010 Team: Atlanta Falcons
2011 Team: Atlanta Falcons
Breakdown: Some are higher than others when it comes to Tyson Clabo, and honestly, it depends on which film you believe and which you write off as bad play-calling or a singular bad game.
Clabo did give up 2.5 sacks to Bucs' defensive end Stylez White, but he also paved the way for a strong running game over the last three seasons.
When you look at Clabo's play in 2010, it's important to remember that the entire offensive line played worse and the running game's production dipped with an injured Michael Turner.
Young offensive tackles should never hit the open market. Players with the ability of Clabo must be signed long-term.
10. Wide Receiver Sidney Rice
2010 Team: Minnesota Vikings
2011 Team: Chicago Bears
Breakdown: The Vikings' decision to use the franchise tag on linebacker Chad Greenway over defensive end Ray Edwards or wide receiver Sidney Rice was met with some criticism and confusion. It also caused some division between the players not chosen and the team.
We fully expect both Edwards and Rice to leave this summer since they were not deemed more important than Greenway.
Rice will be highly sought after, even though he had serious hip surgery in 2010. Rice is among the best young receivers in the game and would give the Chicago Bears a legitimate outside threat in Mike Martz' offense.
9. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph
2010 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: Given the choice of living in Houston, Texas, and making a little more money working for a better company versus living in Cincinnati, Ohio, and working for what many consider the worst boss in your industry, most would easily pick Houston.
That's what we think Johnathan Joseph will do this summer, too.
Joseph was locked on a bad team in Cincinnati, and that team is only getting worse in the interim as Mike Brown tries to decide what to do with Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco.
Joseph will read the writing on the wall and head south to a team on the brink of something special in Houston.
8. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie
2010 Team: New York Jets
2011 Team: Dallas Cowboys
Breakdown: If we have learned anything from Antonio Cromartie's tweets this summer, it is that he has no loyalty to the Jets, the NFLPA or anyone other than himself.
This is why we believe Cromartie will leave New York for the highest bidder once free agency starts. Ironically enough, it will be his current head coach's brother Rob coaching Cromartie next season in Dallas.
We believe Jerry Jones will open his wallet to lure a shutdown corner to Dallas. While that may be Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan Joseph, Cromartie makes the most sense with his familiarity in Ryan's defense.
7. Linebacker Tamba Hali
2010 Team: Kansas City Chiefs
2011 Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Breakdown: The Chiefs placed their franchise tag on Tamba Hali before the lockout began, limiting his movement in free agency this summer.
Hali is the key to the Chiefs defense, and the front office knows this. They also have no one on the roster even close to taking over his role as the outside pass-rusher in their 3-4 defense.
Hali will be back in Kansas City with a much larger paycheck.
6. Running Back DeAngelo Williams
2010 Team: Carolina Panthers
2011 Team: Miami Dolphins
Breakdown: DeAngelo Williams is considered by many to be a top-five free agent this summer. While we like his ability and production, the fact that Williams missed a large part of the 2010 season with injury hurts his value in our eyes.
Williams will not be on the open market long before he attracts the eyes and dollars of NFL teams, though. Many have linked Williams to Miami this offseason in a move that we feel makes too much sense to not happen.
4. Guard Carl Nicks
2010 Team: New Orleans Saints
2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Breakdown: Many casual fans will overlook just how valuable the Saints interior offensive line is to the team's success.
True fans know that Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks make up the best guard combination in football—a combination that cannot be broken up.
Nicks will become a restricted free agent this summer once the lockout is over, and the Saints must have re-signing him atop their list of post-lockout priorities.
4. Running Back Arian Foster
2010 Team: Houston Texans
2011 Team: Houston Texans
Breakdown: With just two years experience in the NFL, Arian Foster qualifies as an exclusive-rights free agent—meaning he is not under contract and if the Texans make him an offer at the three-year veteran minimum salary he has to accept it. So he's a free agent only if the Texans decide not to make an offer.
While that doesn't seem likely, it's possible, and it also reflects the need for Houston to lock up Foster long-term once the lockout is over.
Arian Foster will not be playing elsewhere in 2011, but he makes this list because technically he is a free agent.
3. Guard Logan Mankins
2010 Team: New England Patriots
2011 Team: New England Patriots
Breakdown: As the Patriots' franchise player, Logan Mankins is not playing elsewhere in 2011 unless Bill Belichick has a complete personality change and decides to let the best guard in football leave New England for a first-round pick.
We have seen this same scenario play out previously with these two, and it resulted in Mankins sitting out half the year and still being named to the 2010 Pro Bowl.
Mankins is just too good for the Patriots to lose. They will do all they can to re-sign him long-term.
2. Quarterback Peyton Manning
2010 Team: Indianapolis Colts
2011 Team: Indianapolis Colts
Breakdown: Something that too few national writers are talking about is that Peyton Manning has now had two neck surgeries in the last 16 weeks, and that he's also still a free agent.
Manning is tagged as the Colts' franchise player, but what's stopping the Washington Redskins from offering him a four-year, $120 million contract and giving up two first-round picks for Manning? Doesnt that just scream Daniel Synder?
Sure, the above scenario is as far-fetched as the world ending May 21st based on the mathematical equations of a radio host, but it could happen.
Manning will most assuredly be in Indianapolis to close out the final three to five years of his career.
1. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha
2010 Team: Oakland Raiders
2011 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Breakdown: We found it very telling that the Eagles lost cornerback Ellis Hobbs to retirement and then chose to not replace him via the draft. This tells us the Eagles planned to add a cornerback through free agency.
The Eagles are not likely to sign a second-tier cornerback to replace Hobbs. This is a franchise that is dangerously close to winning a Super Bowl if they can get better play from their back seven on defense.
Adding the best cornerback in football would go a long way in making that Super Bowl dream a reality.
Philadelphia has the money, star power and talent to lure Asomugha to town.