NFL Draft Myth or Fact? All Good Quarterbacks Go in the First Round

There is a lot of talk this year about second-tier quarterbacks presenting great value in the late first round to early second round of the NFL draft.

Many have argued on the comment section of some of my recent NFL draft articles that good quarterbacks can be found late. We all know the story of how Tom Brady slipped through every team's fingertips on draft day multiple times.

Obviously the Brady scenario is unique, as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time is unlikely to slip all the way to the sixth round. Even so, is it possible that all good quarterbacks today are taken in the first round?

A phrase analysts tend to exhaust is "quarterback-driven league." It is no mistake that elite quarterbacks tend to be in the playoffs, while teams who fail to put forth a legitimate field general usually watch at home.

As a result, teams tend to overvalue quarterbacks. There is a huge need for quarterbacks this season for teams drafting at the top, which is not a coincidence by any means.

This year also happens to be one of the few years this decade that does not feature an elite surefire quarterback at the top of the draft.

Consequently, need takes precedence over value. Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton are projected to be taken in the top six picks. Even quarterbacks like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Andy Dalton are starting to make their way into the first round discussion.

Teams are so enamored with quarterbacks that the good ones no longer make it out of the first round. This theory isn't bullet proof, but it's almost to that point.

Below is a table listing the top 25 quarterbacks of 2010 by quarterback rating and the pick in which they were selected on draft day.

Quarterback	QB Rating	Overall Pick
Tom Brady	111.0	199
Philip Rivers	101.8	4
Aaron Rodgers	101.2	24
Michael Vick	100.2	1
Ben Roethlisberger	97.0	11
Josh Freeman	95.9	17
Joe Flacco	93.6	18
Matt Cassel	93.0	230
Matt Schaub	92.0	90
Peyton Manning	91.9	1
Matt Ryan	91.0	3
Drew Brees	90.9	32
David Garrard	90.8	108
Jon Kitna	88.9	NA
Kyle Orton	87.5	106
Jay Cutler	86.3	11
Eli Manning	85.3	1
Jason Campbell	84.5	25
Carson Palmer	82.4	1
Kerry Collins	82.2	5
Alex Smith	82.1	1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	81.8	250
Shaun Hill	81.3	NA
Donovan McNabb	77.1	2
Sam Bradford	76.5	1

As you can see, 15 quarterbacks in the top 25 in passer rating were selected in the first round. Not a single quarterback on this list who was drafted past the first round won a playoff game.

Shaun Hill is only on this list because Matthew Stafford, who is a No. 1 pick, was on the sidelines for a huge portion of last season. 

Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, Jon Kitna, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Shaun Hill all break into the top 25 in passer rating, despite being drafted after the first round. Of this group, only Brady, Cassel and Schaub are locks to start next season.

Three quarterbacks out of 25 are sure fire starters, while 12 out of 15 first-rounders are without question the opening day starters for their 2010 teams.

Elite quarterbacks in the NFL rarely escape the first round on draft day. Teams put so much emphasis on bringing in the quarterback of the future that it has created a situation where late round project quarterbacks rarely see the light of day.

Every once in a while, a guy like Brady comes along and makes everyone question what has come to be fact.

Cassel didn't start a game in college and lucked into locking down the backup job in New England before Brady went down. While he continues to impress in the NFL, he is most certainly not the norm.

There are quarterbacks drafted in the first round who never amount to anything, but the overvaluing of quarterbacks causes a huge void in potential starting quarterbacks available past the first round.