Buffalo Smokescreen: Bills Could Have Luck on Their Side

During February's NFL combine, I created a post on a Buffalo Bills fan forum called The Stadium Wall.  It was entitled "Bills May Luck Out."  Despite all of the hype surrounding Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, I wanted to know if Buffalo fans preferred to wait another year for the Bills to select a rookie quarterback to groom for the future. 

Although many experts have predicted that Buffalo will use its third overall pick on April 28th to select Newton or Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, I wanted to think outside the box.  Maybe the Bills have something else up their sleeves.  Maybe mixed signals are being sent each time head coach Chan Gailey is interviewed or when the press hears from Bills General Manager Buddy Nix.  Both men can be coy, but with a lot of skill and a little luck, they could shock the football world, when it comes to choosing the next face of the franchise.

It may seem risky and far-fetched, but Buffalo could conceivably trade draft choices this year for a high one next year.  They can then have a realistic chance to get a quarterback who is considered head and shoulders above his peers. 

Consider this scenario:  The Bills trade this year's No. 3 overall choice, their second-rounder at pick No. 34 and their third or fourth-round selection to a quarterback-needy team that is determined to move up to get a guy like Newton or Gabbert. 

In return, Buffalo would get their trade partner's first-round draft choice this year and demand its first-round selection next year.  The Bills could then use two first-round spots as ammunition in 2012 to better their chances of selecting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.  In case you haven't heard, Luck is considered by many football experts to be the best prospect at the position since Indianapolis star Peyton Manning entered the NFL in 1998.   

Forecasting where a potential trade partner is going to finish in any given year is a crapshoot, but if the odds are good that the organization will be one of the NFL's three or four worst in 2011, Buffalo would be in prime position to draft Luck next April.  Of course, if the Bills need to move up to No. 1 to get him, they would have to package an offer that would include the 2012 first-rounder they receive in this year's trade with their own first-round choice.  It sounds like a lot to give up for one piece of a puzzle, but if Nix and Gailey want Luck bad enough, they will pay the price.

The team at No. 1 next year could even turn out to be the same one that Buffalo trades with this year.  In this "best-case scenario", the trade partner would already have Newton or Gabbert in place and may be willing to deal with the team that gave them what they wanted in the first place. 

There are a lot of what-ifs at this time of year, but moves such as these are much more common than what New Orleans coach Mike Ditka did in 1999.  On draft day that year, Ditka was roundly criticized for trading away every one of the Saints' picks, plus their first-round choice in 2000 to the Washington Redskins in order to move up in the draft to select Texas running back and Heisman Trophy Winner Ricky Williams.

One of the things I like most about Gailey and Nix is that they are not afraid to shoot straight and tell it like it is.  They may or may not show their true intentions, but they know playmakers when they see them.  They admittedly gave high marks to Clemson running back C.J. Spiller before choosing him last year with the tenth overall pick.  Spiller didn't set the world on fire during his rookie season, but Gailey has promised to increase his workload in year two.  The coach and GM also have a history of identifying talent, nurturing that talent and incorporating it into a system for maximum productivity.

I think if the Bills decide to select a signal caller this year, Gailey will do his best to build an offense around that particular quarterback's strengths. Newton, Gabbert, Jake Locker or Ryan Mallet would inevitably sit behind returning Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, much like Aaron Rodgers did behind Brett Favre in Green Bay.  Except in Buffalo's case, it will not be for as long.

Depending on the health of Ralph Wilson and if he is the team's owner for two more years, I think Gailey and Nix will have at least a year to sit their young quarterback, who will watch and learn from Fitzpatrick. Most coaches and GMs deserve that right and should not be pressured into playing an inexperienced quarterback when time and mentoring could benefit him.

If the Bills choose this scenario, don't be surprised if they sign a journeyman in free agency to serve as the No. 2 signal-caller, in case Fitzpatrick sustains an injury.  But if Buffalo has already decided to pass on this year's QBs, anything can happen, including a draft-day trade.

In my opinion, there have been clear signs of a Bills' smokescreen in recent days. During Tuesday's owner's meetings, Gailey gushed about Newton and Gabbert like never before.  According to CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco, the praise may have been a ploy to throw off Newton's suitors. 

Gailey actually claimed that Newton and Gabbert have excellent skill sets.  "Not average, not above average, outstanding—to play early and long," said the Bills head coach.  Does that sound like the same guy that said before the combine that he prefers coaching rookie quarterbacks who come from pro-style offenses in college?  Prisco's article can be found at: http://cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/14845446.

Newton and Gabbert played primarily from a shotgun formation in spread offenses at Auburn and Missouri.  When specifically referring to Newton, who had just one year of college experience at the Division I level, Gailey hinted that the one year doesn't bother him as much as Newton's inexperience from under center.  "I don't think developing the one-year guy is as big as developing the guy who's not been in a typical pro-style offense," said Gailey. 

Even in Title Town, USA, sportswriters are questioning this year's top prospects.  This year's crop is spread too thin, according to the Packer Report's Bill Huber.  The link to his column is: http://gnb.scout.com/2/1050949.html.  Of course, Green Bay has no need to look at quarterbacks after Rodgers led them to a Super Bowl title, but the Packers' patience and success with him is a great example of what the future can hold for a team that targets a player whose skill set fits their system. 

Widely considered a top-10 prospect in the 2005 draft, Rodgers fell all the way to the 24th spot, where Green Bay gladly snatched him up. Like Newton, Rodgers was a junior college transfer, but unlike Newton he played two years of Division I football at Cal and led a prolific pro-style offense for the Bears.   

As for Gailey's comments this week, do not be fooled by what appears to be a change of heart. First of all, the second-year Bills coach does not believe in pro days and refuses to attend them, unless he is directed to.  Buffalo's front office sent Nix to both Newton's and Gabbert's college pro days.  Meanwhile, Gailey will wait to conduct private workouts with the quarterbacks at One Bills Drive.   

So, unless Nix convinces him otherwise, 40 to 50 pro day passes by Newton and Gabbert have not changed Gailey's mind. Unfortunately, other teams know a smokescreen when they see one. One NFL representative reportedly said that he didn't agree with Gailey's "can't-miss" comments about the two quarterbacks.

Nevertheless, if there's ever a good time to get the most out of a potential trade partner, now is the time. Gailey and Nix know that they have to coax quarterback-needy teams to "come correct" if they make an offer to move up. And by saying that he "expects to have it all figured out a couple of weeks before the draft", coach Gailey is lighting a fire under each possible trade partner. 

If top-10 draft teams like Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee and Washington choose to catapult past Cincinnati into Buffalo's No. 3 spot, they need to act fast.  In the meantime, other teams interested in quarterbacks like Minnesota and Miami will need to do their due diligence, if they decide to pursue Newton or Gabbert.  It would cost the Vikings or Dolphins a lot to move up to the top three spots from 12 or 15, but if they wish to wheel and deal, they'll have to do it with Buffalo or get ahead of the Bills by negotiating with Denver or Carolina.

If the Bills decide to trade down and wait until next year for a franchise quarterback, how can they lose? With top-five picks potentially earning much less than in the past and with a seasoned GM like Nix answering the phone, Buffalo can be as stubborn as it wants to be. And the Bills will be, until they get an offer they can't refuse. At worst, they can stay at No. 3 to choose a dominant defender that will immediately upgrade the team's 24th ranked unit and the league's worst run defense.  At best, the Bills will embrace a trade that would yield a quality first-round selection, additional picks for this year's team and the chance to close a void that has not been adequately filled since Jim Kelly retired 15 years ago.

I expect a strong response to my Luck idea by a Buffalo fan base that is one of the most knowledgeable ones in the country.  Like their team, Bills fans are resilient and they are open to debating all sorts of possibilities.  I may be in the minority, but I can envision Luck leading Buffalo's resurgence.  Of the three teams at the top of the draft, the Bills were probably the most disappointed when Luck decided to stay in school for another season. If they were expecting to wheel and deal for the right to choose Luck this year, why would they not do the same next year?

With no collective bargaining agreement, teams will not be allowed to trade current players in April's draft and the league has warned them to be careful about including 2012 picks in any trade.  Teams that do so will do it at their own risk.  And if the 2012 draft is cancelled, teams that received extra choices would lose them outright.  This, of course, makes Buffalo's quest for Luck more difficult, but not impossible.  A cancellation of next year's draft would be devastating to the league and I believe Buffalo's front office would be willing to gamble that it won't happen.  In any case, the Bills would fill a number of needs by trading down and would be able to add depth when free agency occurs after the coming draft.

As many of our readers have pointed, Buffalo would be better off concentrating on defensive line, linebacker, tight end and offensive line this year. As we get closer to this draft, I honestly think the Bills would be crazy not to fill these needs from the very start.  That way, they'll solidify the trenches, improve their pass protection and have a more consistent running game.  But more importantly, they will vastly improve a defense that desperately needs it. 

With all of that in place, the Bills can improve sooner and will be better prepared to draft a rookie quarterback who will call Buffalo "home" for the next decade.

If the combine and pro days were good for anything, they proved that all of this year's quarterbacks need time to learn, before they are thrown to the wolves. With his senior year ahead of him and a consensus of evaluators stating that he will be more game-ready than anybody in this year's rookie class, Andrew Luck may be worth the wait. And if coach Gailey has him pegged as "the guy" for Buffalo, his pal Buddy Nix will do everything he can to get his man.