NFL Draft History: The Tremendous Risk of Drafting a QB in the First Round

Bill Walsh was criticized for selecting Joe Montana with 82nd pick in the 1979 draft.

Montana was selected at the very bottom of the third round, but some thought he was taken far too soon. Worthy of a fifth-rounder, tops.

Also, the 49ers had pretty bad quarterback problems that year. If the 49ers had not been so stupid as to trade their first round pick to Buffalo, they could have gotten a real quarterback, like Jack Thompson.

This is when Walsh dropped his famous quote: "Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Fewer still are qualified to coach the position."

That was his polite way of saying "you critics don't know what you are talking about." This line is frequently quoted by Michael Lombardi—one of Walsh's protégés—on the NFL Network.

Hindsight is 20/20, and the history is pretty clear. Walsh was laughing like hell at those same critics long before he died. Anybody who knows anything about NFL football ought to be laughing right along with him.

Truth be told, the scouts don't know who the good quarterback candidates are, period. They don't know this year. They didn't know last year. They won't know next year. They didn't know 31 years ago.

They can't tell the winners from the losers, period. Gambling on the scout's advice is a crapshoot at best, so shake up 'dem bones and roll'em, if you will.

How do I know this? How can I be so condemning of the NFL scout? It's pretty easy to do. All you need to do is study a little history. Perform this research project, if you like, and see what you find.

Collect all the names of all the quarterbacks selected in the first round between 1979 and 2007. Go over your list a few times and consider whether the pick in question turned out to be a success story, a bust story, or fair-to-middlin' journeyman story.

Count the number of picks in each of those categories. Divide the number of names in each category by the total number of picks, and there you have your percentages. These percentages define your actuarial table. The actuarial table tells you your odds of success when selecting a quarterback in the first round.

Being the nice guy that I am, I decided to do the research for you. The results are as follows:

67 quarterbacks were selected in the first round between 1979 and 2007

20 were ultimately successful (29.85 percent)

39 were all-out busts (58.21 percent)

Eight were middlin' journeymen quarterbacks (11.94 percent)

Want some proof? How about the entire table of first-round quarterbacks between 1979 and 2007? Would that be good enough for you?

#	Name	School	Year	Team	Overall	Rating
1	Jack Thompson	Washington State	1979	Bengals	3	Bust
2	Phil Simms	Morehead State	1979	Giants	7	Success
3	Steve Fuller	Clemson	1979	Chiefs	23	Bust
4	Marc Wilson	BYU	1980	Raiders	15	Bust
5	Mark Malone	Arizona State	1980	Steelers	28	Bust
6	Rich Campbell	California	1981	Packers	6	Bust
7	Dave Wilson	Illinois	1981	Saints	Supplemental	Bust
8	Art Schlichter	Ohio State	1982	Colts	4	Bust
9	Jim McMahon	BYU	1982	Bears	5	Success
10	John Elway	Stanford	1983	Colts	1	Success
11	Todd Blackledge	Penn State	1983	Chiefs	7	Bust
12	Jim Kelly	Miami	1983	Bills	14	Success
13	Tony Eason	Illinois	1983	Patriots	15	Bust
14	Ken O'Brien	UC Davis	1983	Jets	24	Success
15	Dan Marino	Pittsburg	1983	Dolphins	27	Success
16	Bernie Kosar	Miami	1985	Browns	Supplemental	Success
17	Jim Everett	Purdue	1986	Oilers	3	Success
18	Chuck Long	Iowa	1986	Lions	12	Bust
19	Vinny Testaverde	Miami	1987	Buccaneers	1	Middle
20	Kelly Stouffer	Colorado State	1987	Cardinals	6	Bust
21	Chris Miller	Oregon	1987	Falcons	13	Success
22	Jim Harbaugh	Michigan	1987	Bears	26	Middle
23	Troy Aikman	UCLA	1989	Cowboys	1	Success
24	Steve Walsh	Miami	1989	Cowboys	Supplemental	Bust
25	Timm Rosenbach	Washington State	1989	Cardinals	Supplemental	Bust
26	Jeff George	Illinois	1990	Colts	1	Bust
27	Andre Ware	Houston	1990	Lions	7	Bust
28	Dan McGwire	San Diego State	1991	Seahawks	16	Bust
29	Todd Marinovich	USC	1991	Raiders	24	Bust
30	David Klingler	Houston	1992	Bengals	6	Bust
31	Tommy Maddox	UCLA	1992	Broncos	25	Bust
32	Dave Brown	Duke	1992	Giants	Supplemental	Bust
33	Drew Bledsoe	Washington State	1993	Patriots	1	Success
34	Rick Mirer	Notre Dame	1993	Seahawks	2	Bust
35	Heath Shuler	Tennessee	1994	Redskins	3	Bust
36	Trent Dilfer	Fresno State	1994	Buccaneers	6	Middle
37	Steve McNair	Alcorn State	1995	Oilers	3	Success
38	Kerry Colins	Penn State	1995	Panthers	5	Middle
39	Jim Druckenmiller	Virgina Tech	1997	49ers	26	Bust
40	Peyton Manning	Tennessee	1998	Colts	1	Success
41	Ryan Leaf	Washington State	1998	Chargers	2	Bust
42	Tim Couch	Kentucky	1999	Browns	1	Bust
43	Donovan McNabb	Syracuse	1999	Eagles	2	Success
44	Akili Smith	Oregon	1999	Bengals	3	Bust
45	Daunte Culpepper	Central Florida	1999	Vikings	11	Bust
46	Cade McNown	UCLA	1999	Bears	12	Bust
47	Chad Pennington	Marshall	2000	Jets	18	Middle
48	Michael Vick	Virgina Tech	2001	Falcons	1	Middle
49	David Carr	Fresno State	2002	Texans	1	Bust
50	Joey Harrington	Oregon	2002	Lions	3	Bust
51	Patrick Ramsey	Tulane	2002	Redskins	32	Bust
52	Carson Palmer	USC	2003	Bengals	1	Middle
53	Byron Leftwich	Marshall	2003	Jaguars	7	Bust
54	Kyle Boller	California	2003	Ravens	19	Bust
55	Rex Grossman	Florida	2003	Bears	22	Bust
56	Eli Manning	Ole Miss	2004	Chargers	1	Success
57	Philip Rivers	North Carolina State	2004	Giants	4	Success
58	Ben Roethlisberger	Miami of Ohio	2004	Steelers	11	Success
59	J.P. Losman	Tulane	2004	Bills	22	Bust
60	Alex Smith	Utah	2005	49ers	1	Bust
61	Aaron Rodgers	California	2005	Packers	24	Success
62	Jason Campbell	Alburn	2005	Redskins	25	Bust
63	Vince Young	Texas	2006	Titans	3	Success
64	Matt Leinart	USC	2006	Cardinals	10	Middle
65	Jay Cutler	Vanderbilt	2006	Broncos	11	Success
66	JaMarcus Russell	LSU	2007	Raiders	1	Bust
67	Brady Quinn	Notre Dame	2007	Browns	22	Bust
						39	20	8
						58.21%	29.85%	11.94%

In conclusion, you have a 29.85 percent chance of drafting a good quarterback if you select one in the first round. Do you like the idea of drafting a QB in the first round when the odds are put to you so bluntly?