NFL Free Agents 2018: Grades for Wednesday's Signings & Landing Spot Predictions

NFL free agency technically only kicked off a few hours ago, but more than 100 players have already agreed to deals on the open market. 

The launch of the new league year at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday felt a lot more like a closing bell. Most of the top unrestricted free agents have already found new homes or returned to their 2017 employers. In fact, many of them did so well before they were officially allowed to sign on dotted lines, which is why we were able to provide in-depth reaction to many of the biggest moves on Tuesday. 

Wednesday was far from quiet, though, so we have an in-depth report card to share and some predictions to make.

Here are your free-agent grades from Wednesday as well as landing spot prognostications for Thursday and beyond as we prepare for the first full day of non-tampering free agency. 

All signing and contract information comes via Spotrac's free agent tracker.

Nate Solder to the New York Giants

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

As NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported, the four-year, $62 million deal Nate Solder is signing with the New York Giants makes him the highest-paid offensive lineman in football, which on the surface is outrageous because he's about to turn 30 and has never been an All-Pro or a Pro Bowler. 

The 2011 first-round pick peaked early in his career. Solder's best years were 2012 and 2013, and his pass-blocking abilities have declined ever since he missed the majority of the 2015 season with a biceps injury. 

"He’s coming off arguably the worst season of his entire career," wrote Michael Renner of Pro Football Focus last month. "Solder allowed a career-high 51 total pressures, including seven in one game against the Chargers."

But Solder was still in the right place at the right time. The salary cap continues to rise, NFL teams continue to be desperate for competent left tackles, and he was the only starting-caliber player at that position to hit the open market.

The Giants failed to land top target Andrew Norwell on Tuesday and were essentially forced to either grossly overpay Solder or do nothing to improve their wretched offensive line. As a result, Solder is likely to hog a bunch of salary-cap space as he declines as part of a team that likely won't be good enough to contend while he's still effective. 

Grade: D

AJ McCarron to the Buffalo Bills

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

We've seen what Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford can do, and Teddy Bridgewater's knee might prevent him from becoming the quarterback many expected. With that in mind, AJ McCarron just might have had the highest potential ceiling among all of the signal-callers on this year's free-agent market. 

The Bills landed McCarron—healthy, 27 years old and with nearly all the tread on his tires—for only a two-year, $10 million commitment.

Yes, Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reports that number could increase to $16.5 million if McCarron hits a slew of incentives, but that would be a good thing for Buffalo. It would probably mean the McCarron experiment has been a success. And don't be surprised if that happens, because the former Alabama star has been one of the best backups in football the last four years, and he put up impressive numbers in relief of Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. 

Worst case, he's a relatively cheap stopgap. 

This was a low-risk, high-reward move for a Bills team that might soon look smart for sitting back while the Vikings, Broncos, Cardinals and Jets played a frantic and expensive game of musical chairs. 

Grade: A+

Carlos Hyde to the Cleveland Browns

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

All we know right now is the Cleveland Browns are expected to sign running back Carlos Hyde to a three-year, $15 million contract, per Rapoport. That could be a reasonable deal or a terrible one, depending on the guaranteed money. But until we have that number we'll give the Browns the benefit of the doubt and suppose that they're only committing to the 27-year-old for a year or two. 

So long as that's the case, this isn't a bad move for a cap-rich team that could use help in the offensive backfield. 

Hyde is not going to single-handedly turn this downtrodden franchise around. He's never had a 1,000-yard season, and he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in 2017. Per Renner, the 27-year-old "allowed more pressures (13) and dropped more balls (nine) than any other running back" last season. 

So don't expect this to stop Cleveland from pursuing a hot running back prospect like Saquon Barkley in the draft. 

There's always a chance Hyde could bloom late a la Mark Ingram in New Orleans, in which case this would look like a genius move. Right now, though, it's at least a low-risk signing. 

Grade: B+

Jerick McKinnon to the San Francisco 49ers

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers replaced Hyde with dynamic former Minnesota Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon, who could do big things for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. 

The 2014 third-round pick caught 51 passes for 421 yards in 2017, and he's also a much better blocker than Hyde. 

Still, 49ers general manager John Lynch is projecting here because McKinnon has never carried the ball 160 times in a season and is coming off a two-year stretch in which he averaged just 3.6 yards per attempt. There's little evidence he can be a bell cow, and yet San Francisco made him the fourth-highest-paid back in football (in average annual value) with a four-year, $30 million deal. 

That'd hurt their grade more if they didn't have so much salary-cap space. 

Grade: B+

Patrick Robinson to the New Orleans Saints

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

It's become apparent that NFL teams realize they need at least three starting-caliber cornerbacks these days, which is why the Saints were smart to bring back veteran cover man Patrick Robinson, who agreed to sign with New Orleans on Wednesday, per Rapoport. 

Playing on his fourth team in as many years, the 30-year-old Robinson finally put it all together in a breakout season as part of the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. He intercepted four passes, defended 18, recovered a fumble, registered a sack and recorded 45 tackles before picking up a huge pick-six in a playoff victory over the Vikings. 

As a result, Pro Football Focus graded him as one of the top 50 players in the NFL, noting that he "allowed a passer rating of just 61.8 when covering receivers in the slot, the fourth-lowest mark among the league’s cornerbacks."

Robinson's gas tank isn't full, but he won't be an every-down player with Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley locked in outside going forward.

For $5 million a season on a four-year term with only $10 million guaranteed, that's splendid. 

Grade: A

Demario Davis to the New Orleans Saints

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Saints weren't done there, because they also agreed to sign veteran linebacker Demario Davis on a three-year, $24 million deal, per ESPN's Dianna Russini.

The 2012 third-round pick hasn't missed a game in six years and played every single snap for the New York Jets in 2017, but it's unlikely the Saints will expect that from him considering that they already have A.J. Klein, Manti Te'o, Craig Robertson and second-year third-round pick Alex Anzalone on the roster. 

If Davis does start all year, he might not necessarily provide a major upgrade over Te'o. If he doesn't, he won't be worth that kind of money. Either way, it's an odd signing for a team that might be better off using its limited cap space on a thin defensive line. 

Grade: D-

Nigel Bradham Returns to the Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

The Eagles lost Robinson, but they didn't let steady linebacker Nigel Bradham get away, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported. That's nice for a team that is right up against the salary cap, because the 28-year-old is coming off back-to-back strong seasons in which he played more than 90 percent of Philly's defensive snaps. 

Among 4-3 outside linebackers, Bradham allowed a league-low 0.62 yards per snap in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. Losing him would have been tough for morale considering that the Eagles are losing several other veteran leaders. 

Still, Bradham doesn't play a premium position and is getting $8 million a year over the next half-decade. That's a lot of green for a team that lacks cap space. The Eagles are also on the hook for Mychal Kendricks' $7.6 million 2018 cap hit, while fellow linebacker Jordan Hicks is entering a contract year. 

The Eagles lose some credit for how much this cost them, but a probable Kendricks trade—Rapoport reported they are expected to shop him—changes this grade. 

Grade: B-

Trent Murphy to the Buffalo Bills

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Sometimes teams will pay players for what they've done. Other times they'll pay them for what they think they can do. I can only imagine that's what the Bills were doing when they agreed to give edge-rusher Trent Murphy a three-year, $21 million deal, per Schefter, despite the fact the 27-year-old is coming off a season that was lost as a result of both a torn ACL and a performance-enhancing drug suspension. 

And it's not as though Murphy was lighting up the football world before that. The 2014 second-round pick had just six sacks as a fairly regular starter his first two years before recording nine while serving as a rotational guy in 2016. 

They probably could have landed Alex Okafor or Adrian Clayborn with similar commitments, and both of those rushers have better track records. 

Yes, this could look like a steal in a year or two, but it seems like an unnecessary risk. 

Grade: D

Julius Peppers Returns to the Carolina Panthers

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Nine-time Pro Bowler Julius Peppers might not have a lot left at the age of 38, but the Carolina Panthers defensive end still recorded 11 sacks while playing just 50 percent of the team's defensive snaps in 2017. Bringing him back was a no-brainer, and doing so at only $5 million is a thing of beauty for a Panthers team that doesn't have a lot of salary-cap room this offseason.

It's clear Peppers is playing for the ring, not the money. He's a legend in Carolina, and he has already made close to $160 million in his 16-year career. The Panthers are fortunate to be the team he chooses to continue to play for at a comically discounted rate, but they also deserve credit for not doing anything to screw that up. A lot of less functional teams might have. 

Grade: A+

Rex Burkhead Returns to the New England Patriots

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

We don't have financial info here yet, but the New England Patriots have suffered so many lossses this week and Rex Burkhead is so damn solid that it's hard not to love New England's decision to keep the 27-year-old running back on a three-year deal. 

The contract is heavy on guaranteed money, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, which is cool because Burkhead should have a longer shelf life than your typical NFL running back. The Patriots don't work him too hard, and he touched the ball only 30 times during his first three seasons in the league. 

Burkhead recorded a career-high 518 yards from scrimmage and scored a career-high eight touchdowns in 2017. With Dion Lewis gone, look for the Pats to utilize him more and Burkhead to provide New England an excellent return on its investment (whatever it is). 

Grade: A

Other Signings

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

As for the deals of the non-blockbuster variety that involve potential key players...

DT Beau Allen agrees to sign with the Buccaneers: The 26-year-old run-stuffer is a younger, better version of Chris Baker. He can be a solid partner for Gerald McCoy at a reasonable $5 million a year, per NFL insider Adam Caplan. Grade: A

OL Zach Fulton agrees to sign with the Texans: He deserves a chance to start in one spot after doing a stellar job in pass protection as both a center and a guard the last two years with the Chiefs. His versatility is a bonus. But NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports he's agreed to a contract worth $7.5 million a year, which is quite expensive all things considered. Grade: B-

G Senio Kelemete agrees to sign with the Texans: Deshaun Watson will be better protected in 2018 with Fulton and Kelemete, a versatile spot starter the last two seasons in New Orleans who also is due to become a regular in one spot. And he comes cheap at $12 million over three years, per ESPN's Michael Triplett. Grade: A

C Spencer Long agrees to sign with the Jets (per the New York Daily News): He's injury-prone, and he struggled even when he was healthy in 2017. Weird move for a team that has the money to sign the much better Ryan Jensen. Grade: D-

CB D.J. Hayden agrees to sign with the Jaguars: The former Raiders bust hasn't intercepted a pass since 2015 and is coming off a poor season. They might regret not finding a more reliable replacement for Aaron Colvin, especially considering how much they're giving Hayden ($19 million over three years, per Caplan). Grade: D-

DE Denico Autry agrees to sign with the Colts: They're only guaranteeing $6.5 million, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, to a high-upside 27-year-old coming off a strong year. I have no problem with that, especially considering their cap situation. Grade: A

CB T.J. Carrie agrees to sign with the Browns: I know they have money to burn and can use all the help they can get back there, but $31 million over four years, as Caplan reported, is a lot for a guy who doesn't make big plays and has just one good year under his belt. Grade: C

CB Terrance Mitchell agrees to sign with the Browns: $12 million over three years, per Schefter, for a 25-year-old coming off a four-pick season as an occasional starter with the Chiefs? That's much better. Grade: A

G Josh Kline returns to the Titans: $6.5 million a season is good value for a locked-in starter on the open market at almost any position. That's what Kline is getting on a four-year term as a 28-year-old. Grade: A

G Brandon Fusco agrees to sign with the Falcons: The reliable and experienced 29-year-old provides an immediate upgrade for the Falcons at the right guard spot, which was a weakness in 2017. Well worth $12.8 million over three years, as Rapoport reported. Grade: A

DT DaQuan Jones returns to the Titans: $21 million over three is great for a steady run defender who has gotten better in each of his four NFL seasons and started rushing the passer a bit more in 2017. Grade: A

Landing Spot Prediction for DT Ndamukong Suh

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Indianapolis Colts

They've been relatively quiet so far, but that defense can use a player like Ndamukong Suh up front in a major way. Only the Browns and Jets have more money to spend, but I'm not sure it makes sense for either of those teams to get into a bidding way for a declining 31-year-old. 

The Colts have every reason to believe they can win now with Andrew Luck at quarterback, and adding Suh would increase their chances of contending in 2018. He'd slot in naturally next to Johnathan Hankins, and, unlike a rookie, he'd undoubtedly do so immediately. 

Other Potential Landing Spots: Raiders, Browns, Jets, Cowboys, Seahawks 

Landing Spot Prediction for DB Tyrann Mathieu

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Chicago Bears

Who doesn't want a versatile 25-year-old with an All-Pro nod on his resume? Injury concerns might lower his value a bit, but there'll still be a bidding war for Tyrann Mathieu. The cap-rich Colts, Jets and Browns have invested heavily in the safety position of late, which could leave the Bears, 49ers and Texans to fight over the Honey Badger. 

Chicago is more desperate and has more money than anyone except the Browns, Jets and Colts. And there's room for him next to Eddie Jackson, Adrian Amos, Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller in the Bears secondary. It just makes sense, but I think they'll have to pay up to pry him away from Houston, San Francisco and maybe even the Giants, Jets and suddenly active Packers. 

Other Potential Landing Spots: Texans, Giants, 49ers, Jets

Landing Spot Prediction for WR Jordy Nelson

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Oakland Raiders 

Recently released four-time 1,000-yard wide receiver Jordy Nelson met with the Raiders on Wednesday and was scheduled to visit the Seahawks and Saints beyond that, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. I doubt the 32-year-old will want to meet with more teams beyond that, and the Raiders have more money to spend than both of those teams and a greater need for a wide receiver than at least New Orleans. 

The Seahawks might be desperate considering the way their offseason has gone, but Amari Cooper had a bad year and Michael Crabtree is overrated, while at least Seattle still has Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Besides, if the money is close to even, that rough offseason (are the Seahawks rebuilding?) makes Seattle a less enticing landing spot than Oakland. 

Other Potential Landing Spots: Seahawks, Saints, Patriots

Landing Spot Prediction for TE Eric Ebron

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers know they have to keep loading up their offense with dudes who can catch footballs from Jimmy Garoppolo, and recently released tight end Eric Ebron is now the best candidate out there to serve as a safety valve for Jimmy G. 

The Jets also make sense if they lose Austin Seferian-Jenkins in free agency, and the Ravens, Saints, Seahawks and Bengals might also express interest. But San Francisco can outspend those last four teams and has one advantage over Gang Green and the others: the 49ers also employ Martin Mayhew, who drafted Ebron four years ago. 

Other Potential Landing Spots: Jets, Ravens, Saints, Seahawks, Bengals